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The President's Daily Brief
July 18th, 2025: Russia Threatens 'Preemptive Strikes' Against NATO & US Intel Suggests Iran Strikes Only Destroyed One Nuclear Site
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Mike Baker
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Unknown
Foreign.
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Mike Baker
It's Friday, the 18th of July. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, we'll have the latest developments from the war in Ukraine as Russian leaders threaten the U.S. and NATO allies with, quote, preemptive strikes over President Trump's pledge to boost weapons shipments to Ukraine. Well, I don't, I don't see how that could go wrong. Later in the Show, a new U.S. intelligence assessment finds that last month's strikes on Iran's nuclear sites only fully destroyed one of Iran's three main facilities. The assessment warns that the Mullis could likely restart enrichment activity at the other two sites within just a few months. Plus, China threatens to torpedo a deal that would grant the US Control over two key ports near the Panama Canal unless the Chinese Communist Party is cut in on the deal. We'll discuss the implications for President Trump's vision of American dominance over the critical trade passage. And in today's back of the brief, the Trump administration sanctions the leadership of Venezuela's notoriously violent Trenda Aragua or TDA gang in their latest attempts to crack down on the group's drug and human trafficking operations. But first, today's PDB spotlight. We'll begin with the war in Ukraine as Russian leaders crank up their threats against the west over the recent arms deal struck between President Trump and the NATO alliance. While the Kremlin was initially quiet after Trump announced the new arrangement on Monday, which will see advanced US Weapons start flowing back to Ukraine through European allies, Russian officials are now rattling the saber in a big way. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who currently serves both as deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council and as chief saber rattler and spouter of insane threats, he warned Thursday that Moscow will consider launching preemptive strikes against the NATO alliance, saying their actions amount to a full scale war against Russia, according to a report from Fox News. Honestly, Medvedev really needs to level out his medications. Medvedev accused the west of having treachery in their blood and said Moscow is ready to take the proverbial gloves off if the US And NATO allies continue to, in his view, escalate the war in Ukraine. That, of course, would be the war that Putin and his Kremlin toadies started. As a brief reminder, President Trump's new arrangement with NATO allows European allies to send both defensive and offensive American weapons to Ukraine from their own stocks, while purchasing replacements from America's military industry. The first tranche of weapons will reportedly cost NATO members $10 billion, though it's unclear what specific weapons will be included outside of defensive Patriot missile systems. While announcing the arms deal, Trump, angered by Vladimir Putin's doublespeak regarding peace talks, also gave the Russian strongman a 50 day deadline to reach a peace deal with Kyiv. Trump has threatened new sanctions and 100% secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian energy products if Putin ignores the ultimatum. Now, I'm going to make two declarations here, neither of them necessarily rocket science. First is Putin is not going to change his stripes within that 50 day deadline and second, Putin is not the sort of cat that responds well to threats and ultimatums, medvedev told Russian media. The statements of Western politicians on this topic are complete nonsense. We need to act accordingly to respond in full and if necessary, launch preemptive strikes, he continued. What is happening today is a proxy war, but in essence it's a full scale war. He cited the use of Western missiles, satellite intelligence provided to Ukraine, threats of sanctions packages, and what he described as, quote, loud statements about the militarization of Europe. Now he also said it's another attempt to destroy the historical anomaly hated by the west that would be Russia, our country. He said if the stakes weren't so serious and high, watching the Kremlin try to play the role of victim here would be insanely entertaining. Separately, a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry said Trump is attempting to blackmail Moscow into capitulation and ironically accused Kyiv of abandoning the peace process. Honestly, you cannot make this stuff up. But the current priority for Trump and NATO is getting Kyiv much needed Patriot air defense systems so they can better protect themselves from Russia's relentless aerial assaults. Germany and Norway have already committed to sending their own patriot systems, and NATO's top military commander said Thursday they're working to get the defensive batteries to Ukraine as quickly as possible. The logistics of the transfers will be discussed in detail on Monday during a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which oversees military aid to Kyiv. Trump is also looking outside of the NATO alliance to source the relatively scarce Patriot batteries. On Thursday, U.S. officials notified Switzerland that five Patriot batteries purchased from the U.S. in 2022 with a pledged delivery date of 2026, will be diverted now to Ukraine. While this is all welcome news for leaders in Kyiv, the timing for deliveries remains unclear. The bureaucratic uncertainty, along with the 50 day window granted to Putin by Trump before sanctions kick in, has Ukraine on edge. Ukrainian President Zelensky said he is, quote, very grateful that Trump has shown a willingness to pursue sanctions, but is encouraging the president to accelerate the pressure campaign against Moscow. In an exclusive interview with the New York Post published on Thursday, Zelenskyy warned that the 50 day deadline is a futile waste of time that will just end up costing lives. Zelensky noted that Putin has shown he is, quote, not ready for compromises and will continue to make a mockery of Trump's efforts to negotiate a peaceful settlement until Russia is backed into a corner financially. As we've previously noted, secondary tariffs, as long as they're effectively enforced, could deal a significant blow to Russia's oil trade, which frankly, has been kept afloat by countries like China and India. Zelensky told the Post that Putin, quote, needs to feel this. He added, quote, putin has wasted President Trump's time. I would very much like to see the US Put some pressure on this situation with sanctions. And so the sooner, the faster it can be done, the better, end quote. Trump has suggested he may be willing to turn the tables on Putin before the 50 day deadline expires on Tuesday. Trump said, quote, a lot of opinions change very rapidly. Might not be 50 days, might be much sooner than 50 days, end quote. All right, coming up Next, a new U.S. intelligence assessment finds that last month's strikes on Iran's nuclear sites only fully destroyed one of Iran's three main facilities. And China threatens to torpedo a deal that would grant American control over two key ports near the Panama Canal. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. I want to take just a few moments of your time to talk about your online security that's critically important. Look, right now the headlines are chock full of data breaches and regulatory rollbacks and all that makes us, well, more vulnerable. 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Caitlin Becker
Caitlin Becker, the host of the New York Post Cast and I've got exactly what you need to start your weekdays. Every morning I'll bring you the stories that matter, plus the news. People actually talk about the juicy details in the worlds of the politics, business, pop culture and everything in between. It's what you want from the New York Post wrapped up in one snappy show. Ask your smart speaker to play the NY Postcast podcast, listen and subscribe on Amazon Music, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Mike Baker
Welcome back to the pdb. We're now getting a clearer picture of what President Trump's targeted strike last month on Iran's three nuclear enrichment sites achieved. And, well, what it didn't achieve. A new U.S. intelligence assessment finds that while the one night campaign, dubbed Operation Midnight Hammer, severely damaged Iran's Fordo nuclear facility, the other key enrichment sites at Natanz and Isfahan were only partially degraded. Both may still be capable of resuming uranium enrichment far sooner than the Trump administration initially claimed, possibly within the next several months. This latest finding, first reported by NBC News, runs counter to the White House's Post strike messaging, which hailed the operation as a total success. Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly told reporters that the mission had obliterated Iran's nuclear capabilities, and Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell went even further, declaring the sites were in the dirt and would take years to recover. But five current and former U.S. officials with familiar with the intelligence say those depictions may be overly optimistic. According to briefings shared with lawmakers, Fordo was Indeed gutted by 30,000 pound bunker busting bombs in their first confirmed use in combat. Officials now estimate the site could be offline for up to two years. The problem? Well, the problem is that Natanz and Isfahan weren't built the same way as Fordo, and parts of their deep underground infrastructure may have survived the blasts. That survival wasn't entirely unexpected. Intelligence agencies reportedly warned prior to the strikes that some fortified sections were likely beyond the reach of even the Pentagon's heaviest ordinance. CIA Director John Ratcliffe, in a closed door June briefing, told lawmakers that while the metal conversion facility at Natanz required for enrichment had been destroyed to a degree that would require years to build, enriched uranium in Isfahan was likely only buried, not vaporized. Two officials said there's been no sign yet that Iran is attempting to excavate that material. Still, Israel is watching closely. A senior official told reporters that any attempt by Tehran to recover entombed uranium would cross a red line and trigger a military response. The official said even if some remains under Isfahan, it's effectively unreachable unless Iran wants a war. Meanwhile, officials in Washington are focusing their messaging on almost exclusively now on Fordo. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Kaine have both emphasized the site's destruction in recent statements, downplaying the mixed results elsewhere. We're also learning from the assessment that Operation Midnight Hammer was a scaled down version of a broader military option handcrafted by U.S. central Command and originally drawn up during the Biden administration. That more expansive option would have involved a weeks long bombardment and of six nuclear and missile related sites across the Islamic Republic. President Trump reportedly rejected that full campaign after being briefed, citing concerns over mass casualties and a desire to avoid a prolonged military engagement. In line with his campaign messaging, one former official familiar with the planning told NBC News, quote, we were willing to go all the way in our options, but the president did not want to end quote. At the time of the strikes, U.S. and UN inspectors assessed the mullahs had enough fissile material for as many as 10 nuclear weapons. Much of that is now believed to be buried beneath collapsed infrastructure. Yet with parts of Iran's enrichment apparatus, especially in the Tanzan and Isfahan, still intact, US And Israeli officials cautioned that the threat is only diminished, not eliminated. Still, Washington stands firm in calling the attack a strategic win, and Trump isn't ruling out further military action. When asked if he'd greenlight another bombing campaign should Iran resume enrichment, he answered simply, sure, without question. Absolutely. So with Iran's nuclear program under surveillance, any move to rebuild could reignite conflict. The latest intelligence, of course, is still evolving and we'll provide updates as insight is obtained. Okay. Turning to China, the communist government is threatening to block a $23 billion sale of more than 40 million DOL strategic ports, including two near the Panama Canal, unless its state run shipping giant Cosco is granted a stake in the deal. As we've previously discussed here on the pdb, the issue of control of the canal has been a geopolitical flashpoint under the Trump administration. At the center of this dispute is a proposed acquisition by BlackRock and the Mediterranean Shipping Company of Port Infrastructure owned by Hong Kong based conglomerate CK Hutchinson. Now the portfolio includes assets stretching across vital maritime chokepoints, with the Panama Canal sites drawing particular scrutiny as tensions between Washington and Beijing continue to simmer. President Trump has already weighed in, calling any Chinese stake in the region unacceptable. He labeled the proposed transaction a national security win, but only if the ports are fully transferred to Western control. Trump, who's been consistently objecting to Beijing's growing foothold near the canal, is expected to ratchet up pressure should Cosco be allowed to enter the agreement. And according to sources familiar with the negotiations, Beijing is doing the same. The Wall Street Journal reports Chinese officials have privately warned BlackRock, MSC and Hutchinson that unless Cosco is brought in as an equal partner, Beijing will move to block the transaction outright. The original plan, hatched without Chinese input, reportedly infuriated Beijing. In response, Chinese regulators have suspended further dealings with Hutchinson and affiliated firms controlled by Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka Shing. That's created a standoff. Under the current terms, Costco is barred from joining until the exclusivity window between Hutchinson, Blackrock and MSC expires on 27 July. But behind the scenes, all business parties are reportedly preparing to welcome Costco once that window opens. The pressure campaign from Beijing extends beyond the deal itself. During trade negotiations with the US in Switzerland back in May, Chinese envoys raised the Chinese company Costco's participation directly, phrasing it not as a commercial question but as a matter of national interest. Now, that message apparently wasn't lost on American officials. It also wasn't unprecedented. Chinese regulators have used similar pressure before, citing antitrust concerns to sink deals that threatened Beijing's leverage. Back in 2014, the Chinese communist government torpedoed the shipping alliance between MSC, Denmark's Maersk and France's CMA CGM for precisely the reason of exclusion. Now, I'd like to point out that China's leverage over the current port deal is substantial. BlackRock and Hutchinson operate extensive ventures in mainland China, and MSC, one of the largest shippers of Chinese exports, has little incentive to provoke Beijing. Whether the Trump administration moves to block Cosco's entry outright remains to be seen, but one thing is clear. Any Chinese stake in the Panama Canal is almost certain to inflame U. S China tensions and reignite debate over who controls the key avenues of global trade. Alright, coming up next in the back of the brief, the Trump administration sanctions the leadership of Venezuela's notoriously violent Trenda Aragua or TDA gang. Stay with us. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now here's an important fact that you might have missed. July and we are in. July is National Grilling Month, it's true. And Tritails beef is helping you celebrate it the American way. Over a fire with real beef raised by real ranchers. Couldn't be any simpler. Tritails is a fifth generation family run ranch in Texas delivering pasture raised grain finished beef with zero shortcuts. It's very simple, great beef delivered straight from their ranch to your front doorstep. And right now you can get $10 off their 20 pound ground beef bundle plus two free flat iron steaks. 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Bill O'Reilly
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Mike Baker
In today's Back of the brief, the Treasury Department formally sanctioned one of the Western hemisphere's most wanted fugitives, Hector Guerrero Flores, AKA or known as Warrior Boy, the elusive ringleader of trend Uruguay, also known as tda. Yes, the fellow chose Warrior Boy as his nickname. The sanctions issued Thursday by the Office of Foreign Assets Control freezes all of Warrior Boy's assets in the US and bars American citizens and businesses from engaging in any transactions with him or his inner circle. Well, I'm sure that will convince other criminals not to do business with Warrior Boy. They'll be like, well, I'd sure like to work with Warrior Boy on that narco trafficking project. But the Office of Foreign Assets Control, well, they've told me not to. The move marked the latest move against tda. It's a sprawling Venezuelan crime syndicate that Guerrero, or as we know him, Warrior Boy, founded and led from inside the now notorious Togoron prison. In February, President Trump designated the gang as a foreign terrorist organization, an especially designated global terrorist entity. His criminal empire stretches far beyond Venezuela. From behind bars, he commanded more than a thousand gang members, building a network that now spans much of South America and has established a disturbing FOOTHOLD Inside the U.S. twice he managed to escape Venezuelan custody, once in 2012 and again in 2023. And probably not at all. Due to rampant corruption within the Venezuelan law enforcement system. He remains on the run, as we've covered extensively here on the PDB. TDA's operations include drug and human trafficking, extortion, illegal gold mining, and contract killings. The State Department says Guerrero also oversaw clandestine border crossings into Colombia and controlled smuggling routes along Venezuela's Caribbean coast. But it's the gang's infiltration into the US that has officials most alarmed. TDA is now reportedly active in at least 16 US states. Its members have trafficked a synthetic stimulant known as pink cocaine, seized control of apartment complexes, and, according to law enforcement, carried out a wide range of criminal activities. Thursday's sanctions target, nguero, his wife, Mrs. Warrior Boy, and four of his top lieutenants, blocking all of them from the US Financial system. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant said, quote, the Trump administration will not allow TDA to continue to terrorize our communities and harm innocent Americans. The crackdown also draws a sharp contrast with the approach taken under former President Biden. During his term, Biden expanded a humanitarian parole program that allowed up to 350,000 Venezuelans to enter the US federal reports now indicate that some of those migrants were affiliated with tda. Upon returning to office, Trump moved swiftly to terminate that program and to revoke temporary legal status for Venezuelan migrants, citing the national security threat posed by groups like TDA. And by the way, a 5 million dollar bounty remains in place for information leading to Warrior Boys capture. And that, my friends, is the President's daily brief for Friday 18th July. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and I I don't want to point out the obvious, but I think I'm about to. Today is Friday, which can only mean one thing. This evening at 10:00pm on the First TV, a brand spanking new episode of America's favorite weekend news show hits the airwaves in full color, VistaVision and stereophonic sound. That's right, a new episode of the acclaimed PDB Situation Report. You can also catch it on our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief and podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.