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The President's Daily Brief
July 24th, 2026: Iran’s Proxy War Just Escalated Again & Russia’s Empty Tanks
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It's Friday, the 24th of July. This month has just been flying by. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And, yes, still traveling. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the Houthis have begun enforcing their blockade of Saudi Arabia. And new evidence suggests Iran may be playing a far more direct role than previously known. I'll explain later in the show. Russia's military is reportedly running so low on fuel that some troops are abandoning equipment on the battlefield. I'll have the details. Plus, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is making the rounds in Asia, offering assessments on Ukraine, China, and America's commitment to its allies. And in today's back of the brief, a new report estimates it could cost roughly $71 billion, give or take tens of billions, to rebuild Gaza, highlighting the enormous financial and political challenges that lie ahead. And by $71 billion, I do mean a lot more than that. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Yesterday on the pdb, we told you that the Iran backed Houthi rebels appeared ready to begin enforcing their newly declared maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia. According to U.S. and European maritime security officials, the group had positioned missiles and attack drones near the Bab El Mandeb Strait and looked poised to move from threats to action. Well, it did not take long. Just hours later, the Houthis claimed they had attacked two Saudi oil tankers transiting the Red Sea. The group said it targeted two Saudi flagged tankers, the Anselliya and the Layla, with missiles and drones because they had violated the blockade by operating on behalf of Saudi Arabia. Saudi officials confirmed that the Ansleya was struck while moving through the Red Sea. According to the kingdom's Transport General Authority, the attack sparked a fire near the bow of the vessel, though all crew members were safely evacuated and no injuries were reported. Saudi officials did not identify who carried out the strike, nor did they comment on the Houthis claim that a second tanker had also been attacked. The Houthis also claimed they forced roughly 10 commercial ships to reverse course rather than continue towards Saudi ports. That number has not been independently verified, but maritime tracking firms have confirmed that several vessels have indeed turned around since the blockade was announced earlier this week. So while the Bab El Mandeb Strait remains open to non Saudi commercial traffic, at least in theory, the Houthis have now demonstrated that this blockade is more than just political theater or posturing. Now, one interesting wrinkle emerged yesterday. Despite the Houthi threats, two Chinese owned supertankers carrying Saudi crude successfully transited the Baba Mandeb on Thursday. According to shipping data, both vessels openly broadcast that they were Chinese owned and Chinese crewed as they passed through the choke point. The Houthis have not announced any formal exemption for Chinese shipping, and it's impossible to know exactly why those ships were allowed to pass unmolested while Saudi flagged tankers were reportedly attacked. But the contrast is, of course, notable, and it suggests that the Houthis may be selectively enforcing their blockade. Oh, you think? Perhaps targeting certain countries while avoiding confrontation with Beijing, Iran's most important economic partner. And by all that, I mean, of course, they're giving the Chinese a pass, at the urging, of course, of the Iranian regime and the irgc. But today's biggest development may actually be what we learned about Iran's role behind the scenes. This week. Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Tehran of flying members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the irgc, directly into Yemen. At the time, he offered few details. Now, Reuters has filled in some of the blanks. According to four sources familiar with the matter, including two Iranian sources, Iran flew between 10 and 21 IRGC officers and military advisers into Houthi controlled Yemen on July 13 aboard a Mohan Air flight. The aircraft also allegedly carried missile and drone components, along with gold intended to finance Houthi operations. According to one of those sources, the commanders were sent to train Houthi forces on newer missile systems and to strengthen the group's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Now, it's important to note that those claims remain disputed. A Houthi official denied that military personnel were aboard the aircraft, insisting all passengers were civilians. Iran has also repeatedly denied providing the Houthis with missile capabilities. Well, I see no reason not to take the Houthis in the Iranian regime at their word. I'm sure it's all fine. According to Reuters, the alleged IRGC flight arrived in Yemen on 13 July. Just three days later, Reuters separately reported that Iran had instructed the Houthis to prepare to close the Red Sea oil route if the US Expanded its strikes against Iranian infrastructure. Then on Monday, the Houthis announced their blockade of Saudi Arabia. And now, just days later, they've apparently begun enforcing it. President Trump warned overnight that the US Will hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks on commercial shipping. In a post on Truth Social, he described the Houthis as an Iranian proxy and warned that if they continue attacking vessels, both the Houthis and Iran will face what he called, quote, major military punishment. For years, Iran has benefited from operating through regional proxy groups while maintaining at least some notional degree of plausible deniability. President Trump is now signaling that Washington is no longer willing to play along with the regime's somewhat ridiculous claims. The immediate damage to global shipping remains limited, although oil prices and the energy markets in general have reacted quickly. But the larger strategic picture has become more dangerous. Iran appears to be deepening its support for the Houthis just as the group under Iranian direction begins targeting Saudi oil exports. And the US Is making it clear that any future escalation may no longer be viewed as merely a Houthi operation. All right, coming up next, Russia's fuel crisis is beginning to have an impact on the battlefield. And Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with top diplomats in Southeast Asia as the Trump administration tries to balance competition with China and support for Ukraine. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a message for food lovers everywhere. Now, have you heard of Gold Belly? Let me tell you about this great company. 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welcome back to the PDB. For much of the war, Ukraine's long range strikes against Russia's oil industry have been viewed primarily as an economic pressure campaign. Now there are growing signs they're beginning to produce something even more valuable. Russian troops say they're running short on fuel, disrupting frontline operations and in some cases forcing soldiers to abandon military equipment altogether. So what does that actually look like on the ground? New reporting from the independent Russian outlet Vorska reveals just how serious the problem has become. Soldiers say fuel is no longer consistently reaching the front. Gasoline and diesel deliveries have been reduced, replacing what used to be demand based resupply with increasingly strict rationing for any kids or sensitive souls listening to the PDB right now Earmuffs One soldier described the situation without much effort to soften it, saying, quote, the gasoline situation is completely fucked. There is a catastrophic shortage of gasoline. End quote. Okay, you can take the earmuffs off. The soldier went on to say that some military vehicles are now limited to no more than 20 liters per day, while another soldier estimated overall fuel deliveries have fallen by roughly 30%. And this is where Ukraine's strategy starts to pay dividends. A fuel shortage doesn't just sideline a handful of military vehicles, it slows the entire supply chain. Russian troops say the same trucks that keep frontline positions stocked with ammunition, food and water are now struggling to stay fueled themselves, making every resupply run that much more difficult. In the Zaporizhzhia region, one soldier said his position receives just 10, maybe 15 liters of gasoline per delivery. For an army that the Kremlin still portrays as a global military power, the reality on the ground is somewhat embarrassing. Russian troops say they sometimes have to walk seven miles or more carrying food, water and other basic supplies because there simply isn't enough fuel to transport them. One of the soldiers interviewed by Vyortsk said he no longer understood how they were expected to fight under these conditions, saying the further it goes, the worse it gets. Some Russian troops say they've now resorted to buying gasoline from locals and villages they occupy for as much as 300 rubles, or nearly $4 per liter. Others wait for fellow soldiers returning from leave to bring back fuel cans, essentially creating an informal, inefficient supply chain because the military's own logistics system can no longer keep up. In at least one incident, Russian forces reportedly abandoned an operational T72 tank during a retreat after it simply ran out of fuel, not because it had been destroyed, but because it simply ran out of gas. The root of the problem lies hundreds of miles behind the front lines. As we've discussed here on the pdb, Ukraine has steadily expanded its long range strike campaign against Russian oil refineries, fuel depots, storage facilities and transportation networks. Rather than focusing exclusively on military bases, we've seen Kyiv increasingly target the logistical backbone that allows Russia's invasion to function somewhat efficiently. It's also becoming harder for Moscow's own supporters to ignore. Russian military bloggers and pro war volunteer organizations, which are normally among the Kremlin's strongest supporters, have also begun acknowledging the shortages publicly. One prominent volunteer even questioned why troops fighting what Moscow still calls its special military operation were struggling to obtain something as basic as gasoline. If these battlefield accounts accurately reflect conditions across a broader stretch of the front, they suggest that Ukraine's long range strike campaign is gradually choking the fuel network that keeps Russia's military moving. All right, shifting gears One of the biggest questions hanging over American foreign policy right now isn't just whether Washington can manage the war with Iran. It's whether the US can do that while continuing to compete with China, support Ukraine, and reassure allies across the Indo Pacific. Judging by Secretary of State Marco Rubio's whirlwind diplomacy this week in Manila, the Trump administration wants the answer to be yes. Rubio spent the past several days meeting with many of the region's top diplomats on the sidelines of the annual association of Southeast Asian nations, or asean. It's a security forum in the Philippines. Over the course of those meetings, he spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and officials from across Southeast Asia, all while trying to deliver a constant message. Despite the wars in the Middle east and Ukraine, Washington is not taking its eye off Asia. It's a message many of the American partners in the region have been waiting to hear. For governments across Southeast Asia, the war in Iran and the instability around the Strait of Hormuz and now the Babel Mandeb Strait threatens one of their most important sources of energy. And for months, analysts have questioned whether the Trump administration's growing military campaign against Iran would inevitably pull American attention and resources away from the Indo Pacific, the region that many strategists see as the long term center of geopolitical competition. Rubio rejected that idea outright. He told reporters Thursday, there's always going to be a concern that America is so focused on one place that it can't focus on another. But, he argued, the US remains engaged in Asia every single day through its military presence, economic ties and long standing security partnerships. That message was aimed at allies increasingly anxious about China's growing assertiveness. Just days before the ASEAN meetings, Chinese and Philippine vessels were involved in yet another confrontation in the South China Sea, the latest in a series of increasingly tense encounters between Beijing and Manila. Rubio described the incident, which he said benefited no one, as escalatory and reaffirmed that the U.S. intends to honor its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines with while also reiterating Washington's commitment to freedom of navigation and what he called respect for territorial rights. At the same time, Rubio met privately with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The two discussed preparations for Chinese President Xi Jinping's planned visit to Washington in September, with Rubio acknowledging that the US and China will continue to have what he called great differences for the foreseeable future. The fallout from President Trump's speech last week accusing China of election interference in 2020 hung in the air in addition to the usual major geopolitical tensions. Still, he argued, those disagreements must be managed responsibly to reduce the risk of confrontation between the world's two largest economies and two nuclear powers. That balancing act, competing with China while keeping dialogue open, has become an increasingly familiar feature of American policy in the region. Rubio's meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reflected a similar approach. He said the US remains prepared to help facilitate negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, but cautioned that recent diplomatic efforts have produced little progress and that any eventual settlement will require what he described as new suggestions and new ideas acceptable to both Kyiv and Moscow. In other words, well, no breakthrough appears imminent. Individually, none of Rubio's meetings produced a major diplomatic announcement. But taken together, they reveal something important about how the Trump administration wants to be perceived. Rather than allowing crises in Ukraine and Iran and the Indo Pacific to compete for Washington's attention, Rubio's message throughout ASEAN was that the US intends to remain active on all three fronts at once. The administration increasingly appears to view these crises as interconnected with credibility in one theater, reinforcing deterrence in another. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, the price tag for rebuilding Gaza is coming into focus somewhat, as a new report estimates the effort could cost more than $70 billion. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a fashion tip for dudes because as you know, I'm known for my fashion tips. If you're looking for a shirt that can handle the outdoors without looking like a typical performance shirt, you know what I'm talking about. You gotta check out Poncho Outdoo Outdoors. Poncho makes performance shirts for guys who actually go outside. The fit's dialed in with regular slim and tall options in sizes small through 3XL. They're lightweight, they're breathable, they're incredibly comfortable, and they have just the right amount of stretch. They're also packed with practical features. You're going to love these. Quick drying fabric, sun protection fabric, a hidden zippered pocket, magnetic buttons, a sunglasses holder, even a built in lens cloth. It's the kind of shirt that works all day outdoors and then still looks great when you head over to dinner. Gear up for summer with Poncho. Go to poncho poncho outdoors.com PDB and enter your email to get $10 off and free shipping on your first order. That's poncho p o n c h o panchooutdoors.com PDB head over there, drop in your email and get $10 off and free shipping. And once you try one, well, you'll understand why I got a closet full of them. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for homeowners. Now, here's a thought. Think about the last time one of your home systems or appliances failed you, right? A pipe burst or. Or your AC quit during a he because it never quits during the winter, does it? Remember that sudden panic? Right now you got to scramble for an electrician or a plumber or repairman. Yeah, not a happy memory. Now, these home issues and breakdowns, they often cost more than car repairs. And standard insurance, as you know, won't cover the wear and tear. That's why HomeServe is a game changer. It's like a subscription for your home starting at just $4.99 a month. Trust me, if I had a breakdown, HomeServe is exactly who I'd want. They have an A plus rating with a Better Business Bureau and a 24 hotline. They are always within reach, which is critically important. Look, the truth is your next costly home repair is coming. That's just how life works. Act now and get protected with a plan through HomeServe for 50% less on your first year, just go to HomeServe.com DailyBrief to find the plan that's right for you. That's HomeServe.com DailyBRIEF for 50% less savings are compared to renewal price void in Florida in today's Back of the Brief, I want to talk about the physical destruction across Gaza and the potential rebuilding price tag. We're learning from a new United Nations, European Union and World bank assessment known as the Gaza Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment. Of course, the acronym would be rdna because there is an acronym that it could cost more than $71 billion to rebuild Gaza over the next decade. Now, I don't want to sound cynical, but between general corruption and cost overruns, delays and security concerns, the price tag and the timeframe are likely to be much greater. That number represents roughly seven times the cost of every previous reconstruction effort following wars between Israel and Hamas combined over the past two decades. So you may be wondering, how does rebuilding a small strip of land end up carrying a $71 billion price tag or more? Well, it starts with understanding what Israel's military campaign against Hamas since the 7th of October 2023 attacks actually behind. According to the joint assessment, the enclave suffered roughly $58 billion in physical damage and economic losses since the war began. Entire neighborhoods have been devastated as Israel targeted Hamas fighters and infrastructure embedded throughout densely populated civilian areas. The Result? More than 370,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed, 55% of Gaza's hospitals are no longer functioning, and nearly every school has been damaged or destroyed. That alone would make this one of the largest reconstruction efforts in recent history. But replacing buildings is only part of the challenge. Before reconstruction can truly begin, Gaza first has to be made safe enough to rebuild. Roughly 66 million tons of rubble must first be cleared from the territory. It's an amount equivalent roughly to the mass of about 11 great pyramids of Giza. And that isn't simply a demolition job, the RDNA warns. The debris contains unexploded bombs and artillery shells, along with asbestos, sewage, medical waste and industrial chemicals. It must all be removed, sorted, decontaminated and safely disposed of before reconstruction can really move forward. Humanitarian organizations also estimate thousands of Palestinians remain buried beneath the rubble, meaning crews must recover and identify human remains before large scale rebuilding can begin. To that clearance effort alone could take years, while requiring specialized equipment, substantial funding and broad international support. Only then can the rebuilding itself begin unfolding across four distinct phases. The first is less about rebuilding Gaza than making it minimally livable again. That means securing humanitarian access, restoring fuel, water, health services, shelter and communications while clearing the most dangerous debris that opening stage is expected to cost roughly $10 billion. The next phase would focus on reconnecting communities by repairing the essentials of everyday life, homes, schools, hospitals, roads, water systems, sanitation networks and the infrastructure needed to keep them all running. That phase alone is expected to cost another $15 billion. Then comes the largest and most expensive stage, rebuilding Gaza's neighborhoods and the public infrastructure needed to support them. The estimated cost there roughly $25 billion. The final phase shifts from rebuilding toward long term economic recovery by gradually placing the reconstruction effort into Palestinian hands rather than leaving Gaza indefinitely dependent on foreign governments and aid organizations. The cost? Roughly $20 billion. Altogether, the plan adds up to more than 71 billion, with roughly 26 billion needed during just the first 18 months to restore essential services and begin reviving the economy. But rebuilding Gaza isn't just an engineering challenge. Gaza will require a governing authority once the fighting ends, if it ends, a way to prevent Hamas from rearming if they disarm, oversight of the billions of dollars flowing into reconstruction and governments willing to finance a decade long rebuilding effort without firm security guarantees. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Friday 24th July. Now, if you have any questions or comments, I hope you'll reach out to me at pdb@the firsttv.com and speaking of Fridays, which I think I just mentioned, if I may be so bold to remind you that every Friday at 10pm on the first TV, we launch a brand new episode of our extended weekend show, the PDB Situation Report. Great guests this week. Well, as always, we always have great guests. Come on. Konstantin Samoilov joins us from overseas with a look at the current state of Russia, while Jonathan Schanzer from the foundation for Defensive Democracies walks us through the latest with the Iran conflict. You can also catch the latest in past episodes of the Situation report on our YouTube channel. Just check that out at YouTube, of course, by searching up residence Daily Brief as well as podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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It.