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The President's Daily Brief
March 11th, 2026: Coup Inside Iran? The IRGC Seizes Power In Tehran & France Deploys Warships To Middle East
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It's Wednesday, the 11th of March. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And I know you'll find this hard to believe, but yes, I'm still on the road. One day, you know, the PDB production team will produce a fine looking leather bound coffee table book featuring all the hotel room backdrops that we've had over the years. It's going to be a collector's item. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Iran's leadership may survive this war, but the power structure inside the country could be changing. We'll take a look at how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may be using this moment to tighten its grip on the regime. Later in the show, French President Emmanuel Macron orders a major naval deployment to the Middle east, sending 10 warships to the region to potentially help escort commercial shipping through the straight up Horu. Plus, it's quiet. Too quiet. The skies around Taiwan have suddenly gone quiet after China unexpectedly suspended its daily military flights near and around the island. And in today's back of the brief, investigators uncover new evidence in the attempted bombing during a New York City protest as the FBI searches a storage unit tied to what authorities say was an ISIS inspired plot. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Yesterday, we brought you the story of the classified US Intelligence assessment that poured a bit of cold water on one of the biggest questions surrounding the war with Iran, whether the conflict could actually topple the regime in Tehran. According to that assessment, the answer, at least for now, appears to be no. Despite the pressure of war, the Islamic Republic still maintains powerful internal security forces, entrenched political institutions, and enough control over the population to keep the system intact. But even if that assessment proves correct, if the regime survives, there's another question worth asking. Will the regime that emerges from this war look the same? Because while the clerical leadership of the Islamic Republic may remain in place, the real balance of power inside Iran may be shifting. And it may be shifting decisively toward the country's most powerful institution. That would be the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the irgc. Now, for years, the IRGC has been the single most powerful military, political and economic force inside Iran. It was originally created after the 1979 revolution as a parallel military force meant to protect the regime and its revolutionary ideology. But the organization has grown far beyond its original mission. Today, the IRGC is not just a military force. It's an economic empire, an intelligence apparatus, and a political power center all rolled into one. Its influence stretches across Iran's missile programs, intelligence services, internal security operations, and large portions of the country's conventional military forces. The IRGC also controls or influences vast sectors of Iran's economy, from construction firms and energy projects to banking and telecommunications and major commercial enterprises. The IRGC's ideology, over time seems to have become fixated on making money and lining pockets. In many ways, it already functions as a state within a state, and the current war may be giving it the opportunity to take that influence even further. What we may be witnessing is the acceleration of something that has been quietly unfolding inside Iran for decades a gradual consolidation of power by the irgc. Now some analysts have even described the process as a kind of soft coup, where the Revolutionary Guard Corps slowly transforms the system from within, tightening its grip on the country's political security institutions while leaving the outward structure of the Islamic Republic intact, along with the outward appearance that the clerics are still in charge. And recent developments surrounding Iran's leadership succession may offer a glimpse of how that process is playing out. Following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran's clerical establishment quickly moved to replace him, ultimately naming his son Moshtab al Khamenei as the next supreme leader. But that decision has raised plenty of eyebrows both inside and outside the country. Unlike his father, Mujtab al Khamenei lacks the deep religious credentials traditionally associated with the position. He is not widely regarded as a leading Islamic scholar, nor does he carry the same clerical authority that helped legitimize his father's rule. In fact, according to recent reports, Ali Khamenei himself opposed the idea of his son succeeding him. Experts familiar with the late leader's will say he explicitly asked that Mojtaba not be named as his replacement. So that raises an obvious question. If Mojtaba wasn't his father's preferred successor, well, why was he chosen? The most likely answer lies with the irgc. Mojtab al Khamenei has long maintained deep ties to the Revolutionary Guard Corps. As a teenager, he served in IRGC units during the final years of the Iran Iraq war, forging relationships with commanders who would later rise through the ranks of Iran's security establishment. In the years since, he has built close connections with the Guards leadership and with the Basij Militia, the regime's internal enforcement arm that helps crush the protests, including the recent ones. For the irgc, Mujtaba may represent an ideal compromise a recognizable clerical figure who carries a Khamenei name but without the personal authority or independent power base his father spent decades building. In other words, a useful frontman, a religious face for the system, while the real power continues to consolidate inside the Revolutionary Guard Corps. And wartime conditions make that kind of shift even easier. Wars tend to concentrate power in the hands of security institutions. They allow military leaders to justify tighter control and suppress dissent and centralized decision making under the banner of national survival. Inside Iran, the IRGC already controls the country's most powerful security networks. If the war drags on, or if the leader leadership fears internal instability, it would not be surprising to see the Revolutionary Guard expand their influence even further. If that happens, Iran's political system may start to look less like the clerical theocracy envisioned by ayatollah Khomeini in 1979 and more like something else entirely. Egypt may be the best comparison. The Islamic Republic may survive in name, but the Iran that emerges from this conflict could be something new. An IRGC dominated state where the clerics still hold the titles, but the Revolutionary Guard Corps, well, they hold all the power. All right, coming up after the break, French President Emmanuel Macron orders a major naval deployment to the Middle east while the skies around Taiwan suddenly go quiet after China unexpectedly suspends its daily military flights near and around the island. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for homeowners. Now, if you're a homeowner like me, you know that things never break around the home when it's convenient. You know what I'm talking about. 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welcome back to the PDB. I want to begin with a major development in the Middle east that shows just how central the Strait of Hormuz has become to the ongoing war with Iran. This week, France announced it will deploy 10 additional warships to the region to help escort commercial vessels moving through the increasingly intense waters surrounding the strait. The deployment includes eight frigates and two amphibious assault ships, which will now operate alongside other European naval assets already in the area, including France's aircraft carrier, the Charles de Gaulle. French officials say the mission is designed to ensure that commercial shipping can continue moving safely through one of the most crucial energy corridors on the planet, even as tensions with Iran continue to escalate. Earlier this week, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the irgc, delivered a message that appeared to tie access to the Strait of Hormuz to a very specific political demand. According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, the IRGC announced that any Arab or European country that expels the ambassadors of the US And Israel would be granted free passage through this strait beginning Wednesday. How do you spell extortion? The statement carried by Iranian state media amounted to a geopolitical ultim, and it arrives at a moment when traffic through the narrow corridor has already slowed dramatically. For years, many energy analysts believed Iran would hesitate to politicize access to the Strait of Hormuz so directly, given how critical the waterway is to the global economy, including to Iran and countries that maintain economic ties with Tehran. But the stakes of the current conflict appear to be changing that calculation. Roughly one fifth of the world's oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz each day, and Tehran has always understood that Leverage coverage What the IRGC appears to be attempting is a form of geopolitical pressure. Well, let's call it extortion conditioning safe transit through one of the world's most important shipping routes on governments distancing themselves diplomatically from Washington and Jerusalem. As you might expect, that thinly veiled threat did not go over well in Washington That's a surprise. Shortly after the IRGC statement was reported on Monday, President Trump warned that the US Would intensify its military campaign if Iran takes any action that interferes with the flow of oil through the strait. Trump did not mince words, saying that if Iran disrupts the waterway, quote, they will be hit by the US 20 times harder. He put 20 times harder in caps then they have been hit thus far. Additionally, he said, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back as a nation again, end quote. In case his message wasn't clear enough, Trump added, death, fire and fury will rain upon them. But I hope and pray that it does not happen, end quote. Iranian officials, however, remain defiant. On Monday, Iran's foreign minister denied responsibility for the recent slowdown in shipping traffic, insisting that Tehran is not behind the growing disruptions in the region. But of course, the situation on the water tells a different story. Commercial shipping companies have already begun avoiding the area as insurance costs spike and security risks mount. Tanker operators and energy firms are watching the narrow corridor closely, wary that the conflict could spill directly into the global oil supply chain. Well, even more so than it has over the past week. And that's precisely why Western militaries are moving to reinforce their presence. France's deployment of additional warships is designed to escort commercial vessels and maintain freedom of navigation through the strait. French President Emmanuel Macron described the mission as, quote, unprecedented, but stress that the deployment is not intended to be offensive. Well, this is not an offensive mission, Macron said. It's an escort and support mission. Still, the dynamic carries clear risks if Iran ultimately follows through on its threats to interfere with shipping. Well, the result would not simply be an economic crisis. It could trigger direct naval confrontations between Iranian forces and Western fleets operating in the region. For now, well, that scenario hasn't played out. But the Strait of Hormuz and the global oil trade that flows through it is quickly emerging as one of the most critical fronts in the war with Iran. Okay. While global attention has been fixed on the joint U. S. Israeli campaign against Iran, I want to turn to something unusual unfolding thousands of miles away in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese military aircraft, which have flown close to Taiwan near daily for years, have disappeared from the skies. To understand why defense and regional security analysts are paying attention to that silence, you have to look at what the skies over Taiwan normally look like. Avid PDB listeners, and hopefully that includes you have heard me repeatedly talk about this for years. Aircraft from China's people's Liberation army, the PLA have been a routine presence. But in late February, net familiar pattern suddenly broke. Taiwanese monitoring data shows Chinese military aircraft were detected near the self governing island on only one day during a 10 day stretch in what was a sharp and highly unusual lull. So that raises the obvious question, what exactly is Beijing doing right now? Analysts are debating several possible explanations, and like many things involving the Chinese Communist Party, none of them come with clear answers. One possibility is turmoil inside China's military leadership. As we've been tracking, Chinese President Xi Jinping has carried out a sweeping purge of senior officers in recent months, launching corruption investigations that have shaken the upper ranks of the pla. Those investigations have already removed or sidelined several high ranking generals. And some analysts believe the disruption inside the military command structure could temporarily affect military operations. But that may not be the only factor. Another possibility is timing. China's leadership is currently holding but soon to be wrapping up its annual political meetings in Beijing. The gatherings are where top officials set economic and political priorities for the year ahead. Now, those meetings don't usually stop military activity entirely, but some analysts believe Beijing may be intentionally lowering its profile while the country's political leadership is in session. There's also a more diplomatic explanation being discussed. President Trump is expected to meet Xi later this month, and some analysts believe both governments may be trying to lower tensions ahead of that summit. Now, under that theory, Beijing could be reducing visible military pressure around Taiwan to create a more stable atmosphere before the two leaders sit down to talk trade and regional security. But of course, there's another possibility, and it's one that makes defense and regional security analysts the most uneasy. Some caution that a sudden halt in routine patrols could indicate that aircraft are being cycled through maintenance or repositioned for a major exercise or operation involving Taiwan. In more extreme scenarios, the concern is that Beijing could be preparing for a limited strike aimed at Taiwan's leadership or military infrastructure, a risky move that would attempt to destabilize the island before a wider conflict. Now, there's no clear evidence that any such operation is underway. And that's because when you look at China's PLA Navy activity around Taiwan, it has continued at roughly normal levels and there have been no obvious signs of a large scale mobilization that would likely precede a major military operation. At the same time, activity elsewhere in the region has shifted slightly. The US has reduced the number of reconnaissance flights over the South China Sea in recent weeks, a move that some interpret as part of broader efforts by Washington to prevent tensions from escalating. UNNECESSARILY while other global crisis. I'm thinking of you, Iran unfold. Coming up next in the back of the brief, the investigation into that attempted bombing of a protest in New York City expands, with the FBI now searching a Pennsylvania storage unit tied to the suspect. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for every small business out there. Now, small businesses face an uphill battle with big banks, right? Where getting a loan means endless paperwork and delays for bank rates without the weight, go to Cardiff Co PDB for up to $500,000 in funding. Their application takes less than five minutes, has no impact on personal credit, and approvals happen in minutes with same day funding. It's the fastest way to get the capital you need to keep your business moving forward. Many banks, right, try to lock out small businesses, but Cardiff has the key. Cardiff wants to approve your business loan if you've been in business for at least a year and are pulling in $20,000 a month in revenue. Apply now for up to $500,000 in same day business funding at Cardiff Co PDB. Again, that's Cardiff Co PDB. Real growth, fast funding. That's Cardiff. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important tip for home safety. Look, if you own a handgun, this message is for you. 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In today's Back of the Brief, Federal investigators say the attempted bombing outside New York City's mayoral residents is being treated as an ISIS inspired act of terrorism as the FBI expands its investigation beyond the city into the two teenage extremists accused in the attack. Now before we get into the latest developments, it's worth noting that some of the coverage of this incident has been somewhat misleading. Several outlets initially framed what happened outside Gracie Mansion as a routine protest confrontation. Some reports even went so far as to describe it as a clash between counter protesters and anti Muslim demonstrators. But that portrayal misses what actually played out. As we discussed, the original event was a small protest organized by right wing activist Jake Lang opposing what he described as the growing political influence of Islam in New York City. Police say only about 20 people attended that protest. Things escalated when a much larger group of counter protesters gathered outside their residence to confront them. Investigators say that confrontation is where the two suspects allegedly entered the scene. Authorities say 18 year old Amir Balat and 19 year old Ibrahim Nikkayoumi are now accused of supplying and throwing lit devices during the confrontation. As investigations deepen, authorities say the case is moving beyond New York. The FBI confirmed that members of its Joint Terrorism Task Force were conducting a search of a storage unit in Pennsylvania connected to the teenagers. The bureau has not disclosed what investigators believe may be inside the unit. Still, the search is likely an effort to determine how the suspect obtained materials used to construct explosive devices and whether anyone else may have assisted them. But investigators say the most revealing details in this case began emerging immediately after the arrests. According to a federal criminal complaint, Balat waived his Miranda rights and asked officers for a piece of paper. Investigators say he wrote a chilling message pledging allegiance to isis. The note reads, quote, all praises do Allah, Lord of all worlds. I pledge my allegiance to the Islamic State. Die in your rage, you Kuf Kufar. End quote. That sounds like a clue. Kufar is an Arabic word referring to infidels, while the phrase, quote, die in your rage is a Quranic verse often cited in ISIS propaganda. As for Kayumi, the other teenager, he made statements pointing investigators in the same direction. According to the complaint, he told law enforcement he was motivated by ISIS and admitted to watching their propaganda. Another clue, body camage footage cited in the complaint also shows Kaomi responding, quote, ISIS when the crowd asked why he carried out the attack. The clues are stacking up here. Authorities say it's those statements that help explain the violence that unfolded outside Gracie Mansion over the weekend. Yes, that could be true. For those of you following this case, you're aware that Balat allegedly lit and threw a device toward demonstrators participating in the rally, with video appearing to show him shouting, quote, allahu Akbar. Well, that again, could be a clue. What do I know? Investigators say Balat then grabbed a second device from Kumi, lit it and dropped it near police officers while attempting to flee. NYBD has since confirmed that the devices were, in fact, IEDs packed with materials capable of inflicting serious harm. As it stands, both suspects are facing federal charges, including unlawfully possessing and using a weapon of mass destruction, transporting explosives, and attempting to aid a designated foreign terrorist organization. They're currently being held pending a bail application. I'm sorry, what? Really? A bail application? And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Wednesday 11th March. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and if you happen to be jonesing for an ad free PDB experience, well, we can make that happen. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting pdbpremium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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