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The President's Daily Brief
March 13th, 2025: Global Tariff War Escalates & Russia Responds To US Ceasefire Proposal
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Mike Baker
It's Thursday the 13th of March. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. We'll start off with tariffs and the trade war. Perhaps you've heard about it. Well, the trade war is now escalating worldwide as Canada hits the US with a 25% reciprocal tariff on steel and aluminum products. While the European Union vows to raise tariffs on up to $28 billion worth of U.S. goods. It's a veritable tariff palooza. Later in the show, the Kremlin has issued their first response to a US proposal for a 30 day ceasefire in UKRA, saying that they're waiting for details from the Trump administration while stressing that their territorial gains must be addressed as part of any deal. Plus, the captain of a cargo ship involved in a catastrophic collision with a U. S. Flagged tanker in the North Sea has been arrested by British authorities. The tanker, by the way, was loaded to the gills with U. S. Military jet fuel. A criminal investigation has been opened and the captain, a Russian national, is being probed for manslaughter over the deadly incident. And in today's back of the brief, hundreds of hostages have been freed by Pakistani security forces after separatist militants wearing suicide vests hijacked a passenger train on Tuesday in an attack that left dozens of people dead. But first, today's pdb. President Trump's trade war is once again escalating as allies retaliate and the president threatens new tariffs, sparking fears that a global recession could be looming. As we discussed on yesterday's PDB, the Trump administration imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum from Canada and all other US Trading partners on Wednesday over what the President argues are severe trade imbalances with US Allies that are undercutting American businesses and workers. Just hours after the new levies took effect, Canada struck back by imposing a 25% reciprocal tariff on on U.S. steel and aluminum products as well as on machine tools, computers and servers, display monitors Sports equipment and cast iron products. In total, Canada's retaliatory economic measures cover some $20 billion worth of American goods. That's according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. The economic tit for tat promises to have far reaching consequences for the price of everyday goods as Canada serves as the largest foreign supplier of steel and aluminum to the u. S. Last year, the u. S imported some 3.2 million tons of aluminum from Canada valued at roughly $16 billion and roughly $20 billion worth of steel. Canada's Finance Minister Dominique Leblanc issued a condemnation of President Trump's tariff blitzkrieg which began in earnest last week, saying, quote, we will not stand idly by while our iconic steel and aluminum industries are being unfairly targeted, end quote. Shortly after Canada hit back, officials in the European Union announced their own economic retaliation. European Commission chief Ursula von der leyen said the 27 member block would impose counter tariffs on $28 billion worth of US goods beginning on 1 April, which will cover a laundry list of items including American beef, poultry, bourbon. Bourbon? Seriously? Not a tariff on bourbon, motorcycles, peanut butter and jeans. If implemented, the tariffs will cost impacted companies billions of dollars, a financial hit that they'll most likely pass along to consumers in the form of higher prices in both the US and eu. We should note, however, that these products account for a relatively small portion of of the giant EU US Commercial relationship. Though the liquor industry warned that their sector will suffer devastating financial consequences, Von der Leyen said Wednesday, quote, we deeply regret this measure. Tariffs are taxes. They're bad for business and even worse for consumers. But she stressed that the EU is eager to resume trade negotiations with the US to find a mutually beneficial solution and avoid further economic retaliation. Von der Leyen added, quote, we firmly believe that in a world fraught with geopolitical and economic uncertainties, it's not in our common interest to burden our economies with tariffs, end quote. The American Chamber of Commerce to the EU endorsed her sentiments, urging the Trump administration to de escalate and find a negotiated outcome as soon as possible. They said the intensifying tariff war will only serve to hurt consumers and stifled job growth on both sides of the Atlantic. But President Trump, well, doesn't appear to be in a conciliatory mood. He quickly hit back on Wednesday, threatening even more duties if the EU follows through with their tariffs come 1 April. Speaking to reporters at the White House, Trump said, quote, whatever they charge us, we're charging them. Britain was the only outlier in this tariff tit for tat. And note that I have used the term tit for tat twice now in today's PDB as they take a more cautious approach to the escalating trade war, according to a report from the BBC. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Wednesday that while he was disappointed by Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, he does not plan to retaliate just yet, instead advocating for a more pragmatic response. He said he was hoping to negotiate a new trade deal with the Trump administration that includes tariff exemptions to avoid any potential economic fallout. Still, he stressed that the UK will, quote, keep all options on the table. Zooming out the uncertainty over tariffs is raising fears about the looming risk of recession. A stock sell off since the beginning of March has wiped out nearly all the gains made in the aftermath of Trump's victory in the November presidential election. And JP Morgan's chief economist recently revised their economic forecast, warning this week that there's now a 40% chance of a US recession occurring sometime this year. But not everyone is feeling so glum about the economic outlook. U.S. steel producers celebrated Trump's new tariffs, saying it will give a much needed boost to domestic steel manufacturing, create jobs and close a system of exemptions that have long allowed foreign producers to avoid tariffs. Alright, coming up next, the Kremlin has issued their first response to a US proposal for a 30 day ceasefire in Ukraine. And British authorities have arrested the Russian captain of a cargo ship involved in a collision with a US Flagged tanker full of jet fuel in the North Sea. I'll be right back. Did you know that Fast Growing Trees is the biggest online nursery in the US with thousands of different plants and over 2 million happy customers. Well now you know, here's the thing. They have all the plants that your yard needs like fruit trees, privacy trees, flowering trees, shrubs and a whole lot more. Whatever plants you're interested in, Fast Growing Trees as you covered to get your dream yard delivered directly to your door. I love this company. Look, no more wandering around a nursery trying to figure out how you're going to schlep home a bunch of plants. And this spring, well they have the best deals up to half off on select plants and listeners to our show get 15% off their first purchase when using code PDB at checkout. That's an additional 15% off at fastgrowingtrees.com using the code PDB at checkout. Fastgrowingtrees.com code PDB now is the perfect time to plant and use code PDB to save today. Offer is valid for a limited time. Terms and conditions may apply. Welcome Back to the PDB. As Washington pushes for a 30 day ceasefire in Ukraine, the Kremlin remains non committal, saying they're waiting for further details from the US While making it clear that any agreement must reflect Moscow's recent battlefield gains and broader security concerns. As we've tracked here on the pdb, this proposal comes as the US Reversed its stance on military aid to Ukraine, agreeing on Tuesday to resume weapons shipments and intelligence sharing after Kiev consented to the temporary ceasefire arrangement. During negotiations in Saudi Arabia, the White House confirmed that National Security Adviser Mike Waltz has since spoken with his Russian counterpart about the proposal, with the Kremlin now reviewing the outcome of the Saudi talks. Speaking to reporters in Ireland on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio laid out his vision for an immediate ceasefire, saying, quote, here's what we'd like the world to look like in a few days. Neither side is shooting at each other. Not rockets, not missiles, not bullets, nothing. And the talking starts and you know what? I'd like a pony. But none of that wishful thinking is going to come to anything unless Moscow decides it's in their best interests to sit down at the negotiating table. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov downplayed American speculation that Moscow would seek to tie a ceasefire to sanctions relief, but emphasized that Russia would first assess detailed information from U.S. officials before issuing a formal response. Rubio underscored the need for European involvement in any future security framework for Ukraine, stating that Washington alone could not provide the necessary guarantees to satisfy all parties. He added that the U. S Was hoping for a positive response. But if the answer from Russia is no, then it would reveal a lot, he said about the Kremlin's true intentions. Really? Is there a. Is there a mystery surrounding the Kremlin's true intentions? I thought they made their intentions pretty clear when they invaded Ukraine. Rubio's remarks track with broader discussions among European leaders about long term security arrangements for Ukraine. British Defense Minister John Healy recently told reporters that accelerated work on building a coalition of the willing from Europe and beyond to support Ukraine is ongoing. France's Defense minister also confirmed that roughly 15 countries are currently exploring new security commitments as part of the evolving framework. Back in Washington, President Trump told reporters that he had received, quote, positive messages regarding a potential truce, but he declined to elaborate. Meanwhile, on the battlefield, Ukrainian forces appear to be losing ground in Russia's Kursk region. The Kremlin claimed further advances on Wednesday as Russian President Putin visited the region. It was his first visit since Ukrainian troops captured it in August of 2024. During Putin's visit, he called for the complete defeat of Kyiv's troops in Kursk. Independent Russian media analyzing Ukrainian open source maps reported that Ukraine now controls less than 60 square miles in Kursk. That's an area smaller than Washington, D.C. and it's a dramatic drop from the over 530 square miles that they held just last year. The shifting front lines are likely to factor heavily into Russia's negotiating posture, and by that I mean they will factor heavily. A senior Russian official told Reuters that Putin would struggle to sign off on any ceasefire without specific security assurances. Putin has long dismissed ceasefires as temporary fixes, instead pushing for a broader settlement with binding guarantees. In June, he outlined demands requiring Ukraine to renounce NATO membership and withdraw from four Russian occupied regions, conditions that Kyiv has categorically rejected as illegitimate territorial claims. Putin has also insisted that Ukraine shrink its military and has stated that he will not approve of any EU or international peacekeeping troops inside Ukraine. While Washington and Kyiv weigh the possibility of a short term truce, Moscow's battlefield calculus and sweeping demands suggest that a durable peace deal remains, at best a questionable prospect. Okay, shifting to the North Sea. A cargo ship captained by a Russian national collided earlier this week with a US flagged tanker, setting both vessels ablaze and triggering national security concerns due to the ship's history of failed safety inspections. Now here's the background. On Monday, the Portuguese flagged Salong cargo ship slammed into the Stena Immaculate. That's a nearly 600 foot US registered tanker. While it was anchored about 10 miles off the English coast. The tanker again was anchored, not moving, just bobbing there, all 600ft of it. Now I'm not a ship's captain, but you would think it might not be that hard to avoid hitting an anchored 600 foot tanker. And on board the Stena Immaculate, well, 220,000 barrels of aviation fuel designated for US military operations. The impact triggered a fireball that engulfed both vessels, forcing the British Coast Guard into a large scale rescue operation. While responders managed to extinguish the flames on the Stena Immaculate by Tuesday, the Salong remained ablaze until Wednesday afternoon. One Salong crew member is presumed dead after search efforts were called off on Monday, While the remaining 13 crew members were rescued alongside all 23 that were aboard the Stena Immaculate. In the wake of the disaster, British police arrested the Solong's 59 year old captain on suspicion of gross negligence manslaughter. Yeah, gross negligence would seem to fit, though formal charges have yet to be filed. Ernest Russ, the German company that owns the vessel, confirmed that the captain is a Russian national, While the ship's 14 person crew was composed of Russian and Filipino nationals. While British authorities have stated there's no immediate evidence of foul play, the incident is under heightened scrutiny due to the Stena Immaculate's role in US Military logistics. Managed by US Firm Crowley, the vessel is part of the Pentagon's Tanker Security program. It's a fleet of commercial ships contracted to supply fuel for the military during times of need. And here's where it gets even more troubling. Port inspection records show that the Salong was a ticking time bomb. A July inspection in Dublin flagged multiple steering related deficiencies, including unreadable emergency steering position, communications and faulty compass readings. Again, not a ship captain, but you would think that steering and navigational tools would seem to be important. Ten deficiencies were cited ranging from defective fire doors to malfunctioning alarms. A follow up inspection in Scotland in October uncovered additional issues, yet the ship was still allowed to operate. That history is now central to the investigation. Experts are questioning how in an era of advanced navigation technology, such a catastrophic collision could even occur. Martin Boyers, chief executive of a neighboring port, called the crash inexplicable, telling CNN quote, it seems a mystery. All the vessels now have very highly sophisticated technical equipment to plot courses and to look at any obstacles or anything they've got to avoid, end quote. The UK's Marine Accident Investigation Branch is leading the probe, working alongside American and Portuguese authorities. Alright, coming up in the back of the brief, hundreds of hostages have been freed by Pakistani security forces after separatist militants wearing suicide vests hijacked a passenger train on Tuesday in an attack that left dozens of people dead. We'll have those details next.
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Mike Baker
In today's back of the Brief we take you to Pakistan, where security forces stormed a train on Wednesday that had been hijacked the previous day by separatist militants, killing all 33 attackers and ending a deadly two day hostage standoff. The train came under siege on Tuesday in the isolated mountains of the country's Baluchistan province by dozens of members of the Baloch Liberation army, or the bla. Officials described it as one of the deadliest militant assaults Pakistan has seen in years, claiming the lives of at least 21 hostages and four security soldiers. Though we should stress that due to the remote location, casualty reports currently vary widely. According to a report from Reuters, on Tuesday, the BLA militants blew up the railway tracks with rockets and began firing on the train, the Jafar Express, which was carrying more than 400 passengers, including at least 150 members of Pakistan's security forces. After forcing the train to a stop, dozens of militants wearing suicide vests stormed the train, while some passengers managed to flee. During the chaos, the BLA took hundreds hostage, reportedly threatening to blow up the train with a rocket launcher if the hostages did not comply. From there, the details of the standoff become, well, muddy. Reporters said. This is partly due to the poor cell phone service in the remote area where the attack occurred. Some reports said the Pakistani army managed to rescue 168 hostages on Tuesday, though the circumstances of their recovery remain unclear. Another 178 hostages were reportedly rescued on Wednesday, though these numbers also vary depending on the report. The BLA had threatened to start executing the remaining hostages within 48 hours unless authorities met their demands for the release of Baluch political prisoners and activists. The military responded by mobilizing hundreds of troops, including members of their special forces, and deploying their air force to provide reconnaissance during their final rescue operation. Pakistani special forces reportedly stormed the train first, taking out the suicide bombers before moving from carriage to carriage, killing all the remaining militants. Prior to the announcement of the final rescue operation, the BLA claimed Wednesday to have executed as many as 50 hostages and killed 50 others, including Pakistani soldiers, while engaging in firefights over the course of the two day standoff. But the Pakistani army put the death toll much lower, saying 21 hostages and four security troops were killed as a result of the hijacking. Neither account could be independently confirmed by the Washington Post or the New York Times. For some context, Militant attacks in the Baluchistan Province, which borders Afghanistan and Iran, have surged by more than 80% over the past year. The BLA is the largest of several ethnic armed groups currently fighting the government. Their grievances include rampant poverty and neglect by the government, and they've been demanding a larger share of the wealth produced by regional mines and mineral deposits. Pakistani officials say the train attack was orchestrated by terror leaders operating out of Afghanistan and urged the Taliban to crack down on their operations. So far, the Taliban led government in Kabul has not commented on the incident. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Thursday, 13 March. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me@pdbhfirsttv.com now. If you love the PDB, but you've always wondered what it would be like to have it without ads, well, you can make that bucket list item happen simply by becoming a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting pdbpremium.com I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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Podcast Host
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