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The President's Daily Brief
March 13th, 2026: FBI Alert Reveals Possible Iran Drone Threat to California & Israel Expands War In Lebanon
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It's Friday, the 13th of March. Oh, look at that. An auspicious day if you happen to be superstitious, which I'm not, so. Well, there's that. Welcome to the president's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, a chilling warning from the FBI. According to a new intelligence alert, Iran may have considered launching drone attacks against targets in California in retaliation for US Strikes. I'll explain what investigators uncovered and what it could mean for security in the US later in the show. Despite nearly two weeks of relentless airstrikes, US Intelligence reportedly believes that Iran's regime is still firmly in control. Will take a look at the new assessment. Plus, Israel prepares to expand its campaign in Lebanon after Hezbollah unleashes a major overnight rocket barrage into Israeli territory. And in today's back of the brief, Iran's president lays out three demands. Oh, he's making demands that he says would bring the war with the US And Israel to an end. And how interesting is it that after having their leadership decimated, their military capabilities significantly destroyed, and their proxies reduced to shelves of their former selves, that the Iranian regime still believes it can dictate the terms of negotiations? And this is why you can't apply logic or Western strategies to a conflict against ideologues. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Federal authorities are warning about a troubling possibility as the war with Iran continues to escalate. According to a new intelligence alert circulated by the FBI and reviewed by ABC News, Iran has considered launching drone attacks against targets in California as retaliation for American strikes. The bulletin was recently distributed to law enforcement agencies across California, warning that Iranian planners had, quote, aspired to conduct a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles. Investigators say the concept involved launching those drones from a vessel positioned somewhere off the US West West Coast. Now, before anyone starts picturing an imminent attack on the California shoreline, officials stress that the intelligence is incomplete. Authorities say they have no information about specific targets, no timeline for a potential strike, and no confirmation that such an operation ever progressed beyond the planning stage. Still, the warning highlights a scenario that US Security officials have quietly worried about for years. The possibility that modern drones could allow a foreign adversary to strike the American home homeland in ways that would have been impossible just a decade ago. Part of the reason that concern exists is because many modern attack drones are surprisingly small and portable. Iran has spent years developing a large arsenal of what are known as loitering munition drones, essentially flying explosives that can be guided toward a target using GPS navigation. Some of those systems are small enough to be launched from a simple rail system using a small rocket booster. They don't require a Runway, and the launch equipment itself can be relatively compact. That means drones of this type could theoretically be launched from a variety of platforms, including trucks, trailers and even small vessels at sea. In the scenario described in the FBI alert, investigators believe the drones could have been launched from a vessel operating offshore. Now, what makes that dangerous is that waters off the California coast are crowded with commercial traffic fishing boats, cargo ships, tankers and other vessels moving through busy shipping lanes every day. A small commercial vessel positioned far enough offshore could potentially launch drones toward the coastline while blending in among the thousands of ships operating in the region. Iran and its proxy forces have used similar tactics repeatedly in the Middle east, deploying drones against oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf, and Military bases housing U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. Those attacks demonstrated just how difficult these systems can be to detect and intercept, especially when they are launched from unexplained expected locations. Security analysts have also raised concerns about another variation of this concept, the possibility of weapons hidden inside modified shipping containers. In that scenario, drones or missiles could theoretically be stored inside a container that appears to be ordinary cargo, with a launch system concealed inside. Officials have not said that such a containerized system was part of the intelligence referenced in the FBI alert, but the broader concern underscores how modern technology has changed the nature of potential threats. That said, authorities, including California governor Gavin Newsom, are emphasizing that there is currently no evidence of an active plot. According to officials familiar with the intelligence, the information suggesting Iran had considered this type of attack dates back to earlier this year, before the current war between the US And Iran began. Investigators say they don't know who may have been involved in the alleged planning, whether the idea advanced beyond preliminary discussions or whether the capability ever existed to carry it out. Officials also note that the ongoing US And Israeli strikes against Israeli and military infrastructure may have significantly reduced Tehran's ability to conduct such operations. For now, authorities say, there is no imminent threat tied to the intelligence described in the bulletin. Still, the warning reflects a broader concern among US Security agencies policies as the conflict with Iran continues to unfold. If Tehran seeks to retaliate beyond the Middle east, it may look for unconventional ways to do it, whether through cyber attacks, proxy operations or potentially disruptive actions much closer to home. And as this alert makes clear, in an age of cheap drones and portable launch systems, the barrier to attempting something like that is lower than it once was. All right, coming up next, US Intelligence reportedly believes Iran's regime is still stable despite weeks of strikes as Israel signals it will expand military operations in Lebanon following a major Hezbollah attack. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, I have been known in my time to enjoy an ice cold gin martini or two on a somewhat regular basis. 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Welcome back to the pdb. It's been two weeks of intense US And Israeli strikes on Iran, and American intelligence agencies are again taking stock of what those attacks have accomplished. Accomplished. A new assessment reveals the regime remains largely intact and continues to hold power across the Islamic Republic. According to an exclusive report from Reuters, sources familiar with the intelligence say a quote, multitude of classified assessments produced in recent days reviewed the impact of the joint strikes and reached a consistent conclusion about the regime's stability. Now, if you've been following our coverage here on the podcast of the expanding conflict in the Middle east, that finding may sound familiar. That's because the analysis reflects the consensus view across the US Intelligence community and reinforces an earlier assessment produced by the National Intelligence Council one week before the conflict began. As I discussed this week, the report concluded that military action alone likely would be insufficient to topple Iran's entrenched clerical and military leadership. That's a conclusion that the latest intelligence appears to reinforce. To better understand why U.S. intelligence agencies are reaching that judgment, well, you have to look at what the military campaign has actually targeted. Over the past two weeks, the US And Israel have carried out a broad wave of strikes across Iran, hitting air defense systems, nuclear facilities, and eliminating senior figures inside the country's security establishment. As our regular BDB listeners are aware, one of the most dramatic developments came in the opening waves of strikes when Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was killed via Israeli airstrikes. At the time, that raised immediate speculation that the regime's political system might fracture under the pressure of a sustained joint operation. But that fracture never really materialized. Instead, Iran's power structure appears to have adapted. The regime's clerical governing institutions are still operating, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the irgc, continues to exert authority. So while the strikes have inflicted significant damage on Iran's leadership ranks and military capabilities, the broader system that keeps the regime in power has so far held together. Even officials in Jerusalem appear to recognize that reality in private discussions, a senior Israeli official told Reuters. There is no certainty that the ongoing military campaign will lead to the collapse of the regime. The question that intelligence agencies are now wrestling with is what would it actually take to bring down the regime entirely? And the Trump administration itself has sent somewhat mixed signals on that point. When announcing Operation Epic Fury, President Trump urged Iranians to take over your government, comments that initially fueled speculation that regime change might be the ultimate objective. But senior administration officials later clarified that overthrowing Iran's leadership was not formally stated as the operation's goal whole. With energy prices rising sharply and global markets feeling the strain, Trump signaled that the US could move to wind down the military operation soon. Still, intelligence officials say ending the conflict may not be simple through negotiations, especially if Iran's regime structure remains firmly entrenched and hardened by the conflict. Because if military strikes alone are not enough to topple the regiment, you have to ask what other options exist? Some military analysts argue that removing the regime would require either a full scale ground campaign or a large internal uprising powerful enough to overwhelm Iranian security forces. It's worth pointing out that the Trump administration has not ruled out sending troops into Iran. But even then, like the intel suggests it likely wouldn't be enough. There also has been ongoing discussion of whether Iranian opposition groups could play a role with Iranian Kurdish factions in Iraq exploring the possibility of launching attacks against Iranian security forces if they receive backing from Washington. But U.S. intelligence assessments suggest that scenario may be overly optimistic, with military analysts warning that Kurdish groups likely lack the manpower and overall support needed to sustain a prolonged fight. And that idea has since come to a halt as Trump ruled out arming the Kurdish forces to enter Iran as part of the conflict. Which brings us back to the central takeaway from the latest intelligence reporting. The US and Israel have dealt a regime a serious blow, but not a fatal one. The bottom line is that the most important card that the Iranian regime has to play is its influence over global energy markets, specifically their ability to control the Strait of Hormuz. Remove that card, figure out a way to wrest control of the Strait from the Iranian regime, and suddenly the mullahs and the IRGC are left with no leverage. Alright, I want to turn to another front in the expanding Middle east conflict, where Iran's proxy Hezbollah launched a massive barrage of roughly 200 rockets and drones toward Israel, an attack that officials in Jerusalem say is prompting preparations for a wider military campaign in Lebanon. Now, if you're wondering how the Jewish state responded to that kind of barrage, the answer is obvious, and it came quickly. Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, first issued a direct warning to Lebanon's President Joseph Aoun, making it clear that Israel expects Beirut to stop Hezbollah from launching attacks from its territory. In a statement released by his office, Katz said, if the Lebanese government cannot restrain Hezbollah, Israel will do it ourselves, end quote. The Israeli military then responded via airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon and in the southern suburbs of Beirut, areas that are long considered key strongholds for the Iranian backed terror group. Israeli media says the overnight barrage they carried into Wednesday appeared to be an integrated assault involving Hezbollah and Iran, underscoring just how closely and quickly the group operates under the direction of the mullahs and how Hezbollah's allegiance is to the Iranian regime and not the people of Lebanon. In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces, the idf, said it's operating with determination. The military added that the IDF will not tolerate any harm to Israeli civilians and will forcibly respond against any threat posed to the state of Israel. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the attack, saying was part of a new operation that it calls Eaten Straw. Seriously, Operation Eaten Straw. That's what they came up with. The terror group says it targeted Israeli military installations, including sites in Tel Aviv, sparking a handful of fires near residential buildings. No casualties were reported, and many of the rockets and drones were intercepted. Now, I want to go back to that name, Operation Eaten Straw, because it may sound entirely random, which it does, but the fact is it's. The name comes from a Quranic verse describing enemies being destroyed like crushed straw husks. Ah, there we go. Now, I don't know if that's actually going to catch on. It's not. It's not catchy like Operation Midnight Hammer or Epic Fury. May want to check with their marketing and branding people. Regardless, the situation inside Lebanon is becoming increasingly tense. Before the latest barrage, Lebanon's President Aun accused Hezbollah of dragging his country toward another devastating war, warning that Lebanon risks becoming what he called, quote, a second Gaza. So where does this leave Lebanon's government now? It's a good question. Israel's ambassador to the UN Security Council told fellow members that Lebanon now faces two options. Either the Lebanese government restrains Hezbollah or Israel dismantles the group through military force, adding, quote, there is no other option. Lebanon's ambassador to the UN Pushed back at that characterization, saying the Lebanese government does not want war and is working to restore state authority over armed groups operating within the country. Well, that's a little bit late, isn't it? After all these years, Elvis has left the building. Officials in Beirut say they're attempting to restrict weapons to state institutions and expand the authority of the Lebanese armed forces across the country. But here's the core problem to date. I mean, over decades, the Lebanese military has never been able to constrain Hezbollah. The reality is Hezbollah remains significantly more powerful than the Lebanese military, raising serious doubts that Beirut actually has the ability to enforce those commitments. And the Lebanese armed forces were unable to meet President Trump's 2025 deadline to disarm Hezbollah, leaving the Iran backed group firmly entrenched in the country. Okay, coming up next, in the back of the brief, Iran's president lays out three demands he says would bring the war with the US And Israel to an end. Yes, Iran is issuing demands. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for every small business out there. Look, small businesses face an uphill battle with big banks, right? Where getting a loan means endless paperwork and delays. But for bank rates without that, wait, go to Cardiff Co PDB for up to $500,000 in funding. 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In today's Back of the Brief despite the devastating air campaign against Iran, it appears the leaders of the Islamic regime are still trying to dictate the terms of this war. Iranian President Massoud Bezechkian outlined three conditions on Wednesday that Tehran says would have to be met before Iran would consider ending the conflict with the US and Israel. PossessKian shared the demands in a message posted to X after speaking with the leaders of Russia and Pakistan. But before he broke down his wish list, he made sure to shift all blame for the war onto the U.S. and the, quote, Zionist regime. While claiming I I can't read this with a straight face. While claiming that Iran has always been committed to regional peace. Yes, when I think of the Islamic regime, I think of their commitment to peace, stability and the ability to slaughter thousands of their own civilians. Nothing says commitment to peace like murdering thousands of your own. After his preamble possession listed his conditions. As you can imagine, they are fairly sweeping. First, he said that Iran's legitimate rights must be recognized. Second, he demanded payment of reparations for the damage caused by US And Israeli strikes. And finally, he said any agreement must include firm international guarantees that Iran will not face future attacks. Now, those demands will obviously be a non starter for the US And Israel, particularly given the current state of the conflict. As we've been tracking, President Trump has made it clear that Washington is not currently interested in negotiating with Iran's leadership. In fact, the president recently demanded what he described as Iran's unconditional surrender, signaling the White House's belief that Tehran will eventually have to concede. But Iranian officials quickly rejected that idea with possession, dismissing it as a quote. At the same time, Iran's messaging has hardly been conciliatory. An Iranian military spokesman warned this week that if the U.S. attacks Iranian port facilities, then no port, economic center or location in the Persian Gulf will remain safe. And that warning comes just as Iran's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Moshtab Al Khamenei, supposedly issued his first statement since taking power. As we discussed yesterday, the statement declared that Iran intends to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed as a tool of pressure against the US and its allies. The message, whether written by Khamenei or not, also warned that Iran would continue targeting American military bases in the region and called on Gulf states hosting those bases to remove them. In other words, while Iran is publicly outlining conditions for ending the war its leadership is simultaneously signaling that it intends to keep applying pressure not just on the battlefield, but on global energy markets and the broader regional security environment. Meanwhile, Israeli officials appear to be taking a more cautious view of where this conflict might lead. As I mentioned earlier in the show, according to a report from Reuters, Israeli officials have privately acknowledged there is no certainty that the war will trigger a collapse of Iran's clerical regime and that they see no signs so far of a popular uprising inside the country despite the ongoing bombardment. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Friday 13th March. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me at pdb@the firsttv.com and not to put too fine a point on it, but today. Well, today is Friday, and Fridays always mean new episodes of the show that has really redefined what it means to be a show that does new stuff. On the weekends, of course, we're talking about the PDB Situation Report. Every Friday night we launch a new episode of the Situation Report. Great guests, smart insight, occasionally clever questions from the host, a certain je ne sais quoi. All it's missing really is a house band and a really catchy theme song. Friday nights at 10pm on the first TV. That's when we launch. And of course on our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief and podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.