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The President's Daily Brief
March 17th, 2026: Iran’s Missile Campaign Breaking Down & Hezbollah Link In Michigan
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Mike Baker
It's Tuesday, the 17th of March. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, an update on the war with Iran. I'll walk you through where things stand on day 17 of Operation EPIC Fury, including why Terr Tehran's missile and drone attacks appear to be slowing and how much longer this campaign could last. Later in the show, new details emerge about the man behind the attack on a Jewish preschool in Michigan. Israeli officials now say the suspect's brother was a Hezbollah commander, raising new questions about possible terrorist connections. Really? I mean, we're still questioning whether there were terrorist connections. Plus, Cuba's power grid collapses, plunging the island into darkness as the country's economic crisis worsens. And in today's back of the brief, Russia temporarily shuts down mobile Internet in parts of Moscow as the Kremlin tests new systems designed to control online information during protests or political unrest. Wait, the Kremlin suppressing information, telling people what to think? That doesn't sound right. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. It's now day 17 of Operation EPIC Fury. Perhaps you've heard about this. And I thought I'd start things off with an overview of where things stand right now and some of the major outstanding questions that remain. And there are a few. According to U.S. central Command, since the start of the war, the United States military has flown roughly 6,000 combat sorties over Iran, carried out by the Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps. Those missions have focused on degrading Iran's missile launchers, drone infrastructure, air defenses, and other key military assets. And that pace of operations gives you a sense of just how large this campaign has already become and how determined Washington and Jerusalem appear to be to systematically dismantle Iran's ability to wage this war. Now, one major ongoing question has been Iran's ability to launch missiles and drones at US Facilities in the region and at its neighbors. And on that front, it does appear that its capabilities have been diminished dramatically in the early days of the war, Iran unleashed massive barrages across the Gulf. Countries like the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia reported waves of ballistic missiles and hundreds of drones targeting US Bases, energy infrastructure and major cities. To many people's surprise, the UAE bore the brunt of these attacks. Now, the UAE alone was on the receiving end of hundreds of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles in the first several days of the conflict, with most reportedly intercepted by air defenses. But since those opening salvos, the volume of Iranian attacks has fallen sharply. Data compiled from Gulf defense ministries and outside analysts shows that the number of missiles and drones being launched has dropped significantly compared to the first days of the war. Some estimates suggest missile launches have fallen by roughly 90 to 95% since those opening strikes. As Iran's ability to sustain large barrages appears to be eroding. To be clear, that doesn't mean that the threat has disappeared. Iran continues to launch attacks across the Gulf, including drone strikes on infrastructure and airports. Israel also continues to come under daily cluster bomb attacks, largely targeting major population centers. But compared to the widespread barrages that opened the conflict, the data suggests that Iran's ability to maintain that tempo of attacks has been significantly degraded. Now, in addition to the air campaign, of course, there's also the maritime front. U.S. central Command announced yesterday that coalition strikes have damaged or destroyed more than 100 Iranian naval vessels since the start of the conflict. That number includes not only larger patrol ships, but also smaller craft, minelaying boats, and the fast attack speedboats frequently used by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. Now, that number sounds impressive, but it's worth noting that Iran doesn't need much to continue disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which they have done, frankly, successfully. That's because the strategy that Iran relies on in the Gulf isn't built around large warships. Instead, it's designed around asymmetric tactics, small, fast vessels, sea mines and mobile missile launchers positioned along Iran's coastline. Even a relatively small number of surviving speedboats or mine laying craft can threaten commercial shipping in the narrow channel where tankers must pass. And the geography works in Iran's favor. At its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz is only about 21 miles wide, with the actual shipping lanes running through even tighter corridors. That makes it easier, of course, for Iran to deploy mines and launch drones or stage harassment attacks with fast boats, forcing insurers and shipping companies to think twice about sending vessels through the waterway. The reality is, the regime has managed to almost stop the commercial tanker traffic through The Strait, with the exception of Iranian oil heading mostly to China. So while US And Israeli strikes have clearly taken a heavy toll on Iran's naval assets, Tehran doesn't need a large fleet to continue creating problems in the Strait. In a chokepoint like Hormuz, even a limited number of mines or missiles or speedboats can be enough to keep global energy markets on edge. Now, the main question on everyone's mind is just how long this campaign will continue. And perhaps the clearest indication of an answer is coming from Israel's side. According to Israeli military officials, the war effort is proceeding according to plan and in some areas, even faster than expected. But even so, Israeli commanders say they're preparing for at least three more weeks of operations inside Iran. The reason is simple. The target list remains enormous. Military planners say thousands of additional sites tied to Iran's missile program, drone production, and military infrastructure still remain to be hit, both in Tehran and across the country. So while the campaign may be moving quickly, the scope of the remaining targets suggests the US And Israel still have a long way to go before achieving their objectives. And until the Strait of Hormuz becomes reliably passable again, until tankers can move through the waterway without the constant threat of mines, missiles, or harassment from Iranian speedboats, the broader strategic objective of this campaign remains unfinished. In many ways, reopening that narrow stretch of water may ultimately prove more important than air assaults over Iran. Now, there's one more interesting, rather unusual Iran related story that I wanted to mention before we move on. According to reporting out of Washington, President Trump was briefed this past week on suggesting that Iran's new supreme leader, Moshtab Al Khamenei, may be gay, something that US Intelligence officials reportedly believe is credible. Based on sensitive sources, the reporting says Trump reacted with surprise and laughter during the briefing and that the information has circulated quietly within the intelligence community for some time. It should go without saying that if that's true, it would carry enormous political implications inside Iran. The Islamic Republic criminalizes homosexual conduct, and the regime has a long record of brutally punishing people accused of it. That means the mere existence of this kind of allegation, whether it proves accurate or not, could become a significant vulnerability for Khamenei as he tries to consolidate power during the most dangerous moment the Iranian regime has faced in decades. All right, coming up next, new details emerge about the man behind the attack on a Jewish preschool in synagogue in Michigan, as Israeli officials say the suspect's brother is a Hezbollah commander. While Cuba's power grid collapses, plunging the island deeper into crisis. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. This episode is brought to you by Pocket Hose, the world's number one expandable hose. 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Now is the perfect time to plant and use code PDB to save Today. Offer is valid for a limited time. Terms and conditions may apply. Welcome back to the pdb. I want to follow up on a story that we covered last week involving what federal authorities describe as a targeted act of violence against the Jewish community at a synagogue in Michigan at The time, investigators were working to understand the suspect's motive and background. Now new reporting is beginning to fill those gaps, including his family ties to Hezbollah. As we discussed, the attack unfolded Thursday in West Bloomfield, a suburb of Detroit and home to Temple Israel, one of the largest Reform synagogues in the U.S. federal authorities say the suspect drove a truck packed with fireworks and gasoline jugs into the complex, crashing through the entrance and barreling down a hallway. Inside the building, the vehicle came to a halt near classrooms at the synagogue's Early Childhood center, where children as young as four years old were present. Officials say no one was injured, thanks in large part to the fast actions of Temple Israel's private security team, which confronted the attacker after the crash. Authorities say he exchanged gunfire with an armed guard before becoming trapped inside the vehicle after it caught fire. Investigators say the attacker ultimately shot himself inside the burning truck. Now, the suspect was later identified as 41 year old Ayman Muhammad Ghazali, that's a naturalized U. S. Citizen originally from Lebanon. At the time of the attack, federal officials said the investigation was ongoing and that a motive had not yet been confirmed. Early reporting from the Associated Press noted that Ghazali had reportedly lost several family members in an Israeli airstrike just days before his attack. But as investigators continue digging, another piece of the story has begun to emerge, and it's a significant one. According to a statement released by the Israeli Defense Forces, the idf, Ghazali's brother, identified as Ibrahim Mohammed Ghazali, serves as a Hezbollah commander responsible for managing weapons operations within a specialized branch of the terror group's Badr unit. Now, the IDF says that unit is responsible for launching hundreds of rockets toward Israeli civilians during the ongoing conflict with Iran. In other words, the man who carried out an attack on a Jewish synagogue in Michigan appears to come from a family network tied directly to one of Iran's most dangerous terrorist proxies. That, I don't know, could be a clue regarding his motivation. And that revelation naturally raises another question. How did someone with those kinds of family ties end up living in the US in the first place? Well, according to the Department of Homeland Security, Ghazali was admitted to the US in 2011 as the spouse of an American citizen and later obtained citizenship in 2016 under President Obama's term, a development that now raises serious questions about how someone with direct ties to Hezbollah was even able to enter the country and eventually obtain citizenship. Well, I've got a potential answer. One answer could be that vetting and due diligence on Folks entering the country is pathetically ineffective. Yeah, that's could be possibly an answer. I want to be clear that federal authorities have not formally labeled the incident an act of terrorism. The FBI has instead described it as what it calls a targeted act of violence. But you know what the old saying is, if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it could be a terrorist sympathizing duck. I think that's the old saying. Okay, I want to turn to Cuba now, where the situation on the island continues to deteriorate. According to reports, Cuba's national power grid has suffered a total collapse, plunging much of the country into darkness and marking the latest in a series of nationwide blackouts that have hit the country. Officials say efforts are underway to restore electricity, but the outage shows just how fragile Cuba's energy system is becoming. The island's aging power infrastructure has struggled for years with chronic underinvestment, outdated equipment, and fuel shortages. But the current crisis appears to have reached a new level. Cuba relies heavily on imported oil to generate electricity, and shipments of fuel to the island have completely dried up in recent months. Cuban President Miguel Diaz Canel acknowledged recently that no oil shipments have arrived in the country for the past three months, and without those deliveries, the country's power plants simply can't produce enough electricity to keep the grid functioning. Even before the collapse, rolling blackouts had become routine. Hospitals and clinics have struggled with intermittent power. Food refrigeration has been disrupted. Tourism, one of the few reliable sources of hard currency for the Cuban government, has taken a major hit. Fuel shortages have also driven prices to extraordinary levels on the island's black market. In some cases, Cubans are reportedly paying as much as $300 to fill up a car's gas tank. It's a staggering figure in a country where the average monthly salary is only a small fraction of that amount. Not surprisingly, the worsening conditions have fueled growing public frustration. The blackouts and shortages have sparked protests across the island, and officials in Havana are clearly aware that the country's economic crisis is becoming increasingly to manage. And now the growing crisis inside the country appears to be softening the regime somewhat and forcing them to make some major concessions, or at least talk about making major concessions. Cuba's top economic official says the government is preparing a significant policy shift that would allow Cuban Americans living abroad to invest directly in the island's private sector and even own businesses in their home country. If implemented, the move would represent one of the most significant economic openings in Cuba since the early years of the Revol, when the Communist government nationalized most private industry after Fidel Castro came to power. Well, thanks, Fidel. That worked out really well. Cuban officials say the goal is to create what they describe as a, quote, more dynamic business environment that could help revive several struggling sectors of the economy, from tourism and mining to modernizing the country's outdated electrical grid. As we've reported, Cuban leaders have publicly confirmed that talks are underway with officials in Washington aimed at addressing long standing disputes between the two countries. Details of those discussions remain scarce, but the fact that they're acknowledging them publicly suggests that Havana may be looking for ways to ease the economic pressure that's now bearing down on the island. For his part, President Trump has signaled that the administration may be open to some form of economic agreement. Speaking recently to reporters, he described Cuba as a failed nation, but also suggested that a deal between Washington and Havana could come together relatively, relatively quickly. Now, whether that happens remains to be seen, of course, but what is clear is that Cuba's deepening economic and energy crisis is forcing the government to consider changes that would have been almost unthinkable just a few short years ago. All right, coming up next in the back of the brief, Russia cuts mobile Internet in parts of Moscow while testing new nationwide censorship systems. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. 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Mike Baker
in today's Back of the Brief, we turn to Russia, where the Kremlin appears to be testing a new tool for controlling information cutting off mobile Internet access, even in Moscow, in what may be a rehearsal for nationwide censorship during periods of political unrest. Now here's what that actually looks like on the ground. Over the past several days, people in Moscow have suddenly discovered that their mobile Internet simply isn't working in a city of more than 13 million people that relies on digital services. Well, the impact, of course, has been immediate. According to the Wall Street Journal, commuters stepping out of Moscow subway stations have been unable to order taxis, open navigation apps, or even send basic messages. Some residents have been forced into shops just to find working WI fi. Others say they've been asking strangers for directions for the first time in years. So you ask, what is going on here? Well, the Kremlin insists these outages are necessary for security. Russian officials claim the outages are to defend against Ukrainian drone attacks, which they say can use local cell towers for navigation. But many civilians and even local officials aren't buying that explanation. Instead, Russians say they may be seeing something far more significant, a real world test of a system that the Kremlin has been quietly building for years, one designed to give Russian President Putin's regime the ability to shut down or control the Internet whenever unrest sparks. And if you're a regular PDB listener, you know that this isn't a new idea. Among authoritarian regimes, Russia's approach closely mirrors tactics we tracked in Iran during its recent protests, when the mullahs shut down large portions of the Internet while allowing regime insiders to remain connected through a parallel network. In Iran's case, so called white SIM cards allowed loyalists to retain Internet access while ordinary citizens were cut off. The system that Moscow has been testing would allow authorities to keep certain government approved websites online while cutting off access to the broader Internet. Those approved platforms include official government portals, state media outlets, and domestic apps such as Max, which is a Kremlin controlled messaging service promoted as a replacement for Telegram. At the same time, the Kremlin steadily moved to restrict foreign platforms that allow Russians to communicate outside the government's control, throttling or intermittently blocking messaging services like WhatsApp. As regulators push schools and government offices to migrate towards State approved systems that can be easily monitored. And this tightening grip on Russia's Internet has been building for years. In 2016, Russia blocked LinkedIn entirely. The Kremlin later slowed access to Twitter, now of course, known as X. And more recently, regulators restricted access to YouTube, widely used by Russians seeking information that contradicts government narratives. But what's happening now appears to be on a much larger scale. Across dozens of Russian regions spanning the country's 11 time zones, mobile data has gone offline, including in areas thousands of miles from the fighting. In Ukraine. Take the Kamchatka Peninsula, please. Okay, sorry, that's a nod to an old Henny Youngman joke. And this may be the only podcast where you'll get a reference to Henny Youngman. Okay. Anyway, the Kamchatka Peninsula. Look, it sits some 4,500 miles from the war's front lines. Regional officials there appealed directly to Moscow to restore Internet access, citing no threat of a drone or missile attack in the war's four years. In other words, the outages are happening in places nowhere near the threats the Kremlin claims to be defending against, raising questions about the regime's explanation. The consequences of censorship being felt across Russian society. A Kremlin Line newspaper even reported that the Internet outages in Moscow alone caused roughly $63 million in business losses over a five day period. Now, to be fair, the consequences of censorship have been felt in Russia for over 100 years. But technology developments over the years have made the task ever easier for the Kremlin censors. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Tuesday 17th March. Now, if you end up with a free minute or two in your busy day, I hope you'll check out our YouTube channel. All you have to do is head over to YouTube, of course, and search up at President's Daily Brief. If you like what you see, and I don't see how you could not, please hit that subscribe button. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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