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The President's Daily Brief
March 20th, 2026: U.S. Airpower Is Now Hitting Iran In The Strait & An American Cartel Takeover
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It's Friday, the 20th of March. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And what a world stage it is. All right, let's get briefed. First up, a potential shift from Europe and Japan, but, well, possibly on securing the Strait of Hormuz. But as allies stop short of specifics, US air power, including A10 Warthogs, is already striking Iranian assets to reopen the waterway. I'll have the details later in the show. A bizarre and troubling turn in the cartel war with a California born figure now leading Mexico's most dangerous drug empire. Well, that'll complicate things. Plus, a new US Intelligence assessment is turning heads, suggesting China may not be preparing to invade Taiwan after after all. At least not on the timeline that many had feared. And in today's back of the Brief, another reminder of the Iranian regime's brutality, where a teenage champion wrestler is among those publicly executed as part of a widening crackdown on protesters. But first, today's pdb. We begin with signs that some of America's key allies may be inching closer to helping secure the Strait of Hormuz, although details are in short supply. In a joint statement, European powers including Britain, France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, along with Japan, said they're prepared to support what they described as, quote, appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. Now, on the surface, that does sound like progress. For weeks, the White House has been pressing allies to step up and assist in reopening one of the world's most critical energy choke points. And this is the first real indication that some of those countries may be moving in that direction. But let's take a closer look at that language, because the phrase appropriate efforts, well, that phrase can have many interpretations. Are we talking about naval deployments? Destroyers escorting tankers through contested waters? Maybe we're talking about mine clearing operations to deal with Iranian sea mines or air support to deter drone and missile attacks? Or does appropriate mean something far less direct? Diplomatic coordination or increasing oil production or tapping strategic reserves to stabilize markets, at least temporarily? At this point, there are no specifics, no commitments, just a carefully worded statement that signals a willingness, perhaps without locking anyone into action. And that hesitation becomes more glaring when you look at what's actually happening in the Strait right now. Because while the waterway isn't completely shut down, it's no longer functioning as a reliable global oil artery. And try saying that three times fast. Global oil artery. I dare you. Come on. Since the war began, most commercial Shipping traffic has ground to a halt. Under normal conditions, roughly 70 to 100 vessels pass through the strait every single day, including about 20 to 30 oil tankers. A new report from the Associated Press says that since the conflict started, only about 90 ships in total have managed to make the journey. And even that number comes with caveats. Many of those transits are what maritime analysts call dark voyages, ships operating without full tracking, often tied to sanctions of Asian and Iranian oil exports. In other words, the traffic that is getting through isn't exactly business as usual. It's Iranian oil heading primarily to China. Meanwhile, roughly 20 vessels have been attacked in or around the strait, reinforcing just how dangerous the environment has become. So, yes, some oil is still moving, again, mostly to China. But the system for the rest of the world is disrupted and unreliable. And that is not good, as you might imagine, for global energy markets. And that's why this latest statement from Europe and Japan, while notable, still feels like a few steps short of what the situation would demand. Meanwhile, as allies are talking about appropriate efforts, the United States is already deep into active operations to try and secure the waterway. According to Pentagon officials, U.S. forces have deployed assets built for this kind of fight. That would be a 10 Warthogs and AH64 Apache helicopters now targeting Iranian fast attack boats, drone launch platforms and naval mines. The A10 Warthog, or the Thunderbolt as it is officially designated, is built for low altitude close range combat and it is particularly well suited for this environment, able to loiter over the strait and engage small, fast moving vessels that have long been a cornerstone of of Iran's naval strategy. U.S. officials say more than 120 Iranian vessels have already been destroyed, along with dozens of minelayers used to threaten commercial shipping. American aircraft are also pushing deeper into Iranian territory, striking weapons storage sites and infrastructure tied to Tehran's ability to project power into the Gulf. But as we've said before on the pdb, it doesn't take much for Iran to project power into the Strait. A handful of mines, a few fast attack boats, even a single well placed strike, that's all it takes to disrupt global shipping. And behind the scenes, there are ongoing discussions about whether additional forces, including ground troops, could be deployed to secure key nodes like Kharg Island, a critical hub for Iranian oil exports. No decisions have been made on that front, but the fact that it's being considered underscores just how high the stakes have become. All right, coming up next, a bizarre twist in the cartel war as an American takes control of Mexico's most powerful drug empire. Plus a surprising US Intelligence assessment on China's timeline for Taiwan. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take a moment to talk about personal finances and the importance of diversifying your assets. So here's the question. Do you own physical gold? In today's world, with its ups and downs and general instability, and I suspect there is some general instability out there, owning gold is something that everyone should consider. And here's a top tip. Acre Gold makes it simple. That's acre a C R E. With acre Gold, you pick a plan that fits your budget, you make monthly payments, and when you've saved up enough, they ship you a beautifully designed 24 karat Swiss gold bar. Look, gold is up 70% year over year, and central banks are still buying gold at record levels. The reality is, smart money has been moving into hard assets for a reason. 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Just days after longtime kingpin Nemesio Oseguera, known as El Mencho, and how's that for a villainous nickname, was buried. Earlier this month, his California born stepson, Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez, stepped in to take control of the Jalisco New Generation cartel. So let's take a closer look at this individual taking power. Valencia Gonzalez is a 41 year old from Santa Ana, California, who is taking the reins of a cartel that has built a reputation not just for drug trafficking, but for operating more like a paramilitary force, expanding territory through a mass violence and fueling the flow of fentanyl, meth and cocaine across the US Border. He's been described by intelligence agencies as extremely violent, but is also seen as someone with enough internal legitimacy to, to hold the organization together, at least for now, to avoid factional fighting. This is one of the most dangerous drug organizations in the hemisphere now, led by someone with direct ties and citizenship in the US and that's where things start to get more bizarre. As if they needed to get more bizarre. Because what happens when the person at the top of one of these cartels is an American citizen? That detail changes things more than you might expect. It doesn't just complicate whether the US can target him, it complicates how Washington even builds a case against Valencia Gonzalez in the first place. Under US Law, going after an American citizen overseas, especially when tied to a criminal or terrorist organization, comes with an entirely different set of rules. Intelligence agencies would need sign off from the Attorney General and would have to convince the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court that Valencia Gonzalez qualifies as a, quote, agent of foreign power. Well, he is running a cartel, and that cartel is designated as a foreign terrorist organization. So I'm not an expert on this sort of thing, but I might have solved it. And even if those hurdles are cleared, there are still limits. Investigators will face tighter restrictions on collecting personal data. Surveillance authorities will be narrower. And on top of that, US Forces are not allowed to operate unilaterally, of course, inside Mexico. So, yes, the tools are still there, but they're slower, more constrained, and far less flexible than what you'd use against a typical cartel strongman. And if you're thinking that all that sounds ridiculous, well, yes, you'd be correct. And that raises the next question, what does this actually look like in practice? Because up until now, the US and Mexico found a business model of taking out cartel bosses that seem to keep both governments happy. In the operation that took out El Mencho, for example, American intelligence played a vital role. At Mexico's request, the CIA deployed high definition surveillance drones over compounds in Tapulpa and that's area where El Mencho was thought to be hanging out, tracking his movements on the ground in real time. From there. Once U.S. intelligence officials were confident that they had their target, Mexican special forces moved in, killing El Mencho and eight of his bodyguards. So now the question becomes, can that same approach still work here with his stepson, the US Citizen? Well, the Trump administration shifted how the US treats these cartel networks, as we've long discussed here on the podcast, designated them not as traditional criminal organizations, but as terrorist groups. That kind of strategy becomes a lot harder to apply when the person you're targeting is an American citizen. Because now you're not just dealing with operational challenges, you're dealing with political risk. Back in the Obama administration, a U.S. drone strike killed an American born cleric who became a senior figure in Al Qaeda's Yemen wing. The then Obama administration argued it was a lawful act of self defense. But the decision sparked years, years of legal and political debate, believe it or not, from individuals who appeared to sympathize with the American born cleric who became a senior figure in Al Qaeda. Which brings us to another constraint. Mexico itself. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has made clear she's not going to allow direct US military action on her soil. So you say to yourself, where does that leave things? Well, I'll tell you, Washington can provide intelligence support, but when it comes to direct action, the US Will of course have to depend on Mexico to carry it out. Now I want to point out that Valencia Gonzalez already has a $5 million bounty on his head. Given the bounty, officials expect that he'll try to keep a low profile, which of course will make the limited surveillance options even more challenging. But if his profile changes and he's identified and targeted, it would raise a very real prospect of domestic legal and political blowback over targeting an American citizen abroad. Even one sitting at the top of a violent and dangerous cartel. I know it sounds ridiculous. Look, I'm not a lawyer. I haven't even played one on tv. But if there is a process, and there is actually, look at that, there is a process for revoking the citizenship of a natural born U. S. Citizen if they've taken an oath of allegiance to another country or have taken up arms against the U S. So, with Gonzalez now leading a cartel that's been designated a terrorist organization, perhaps revoking his citizenship would be in order. Look at that. I've solved it. Okay, I want to turn to a new U.S. intelligence assessment that's challenging how Washington views the risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and more importantly, the timeline that had been driving years of planning. If you're a regular listener of the PDB, you've most likely heard us discussing the year 2027 as the moment to watch the year that intelligence agencies have seen as the most likely window when China would move on the self governing democratic island. That timeline drove real urgency in Washington and Taipei, accelerating defense spending and forcing both capitals to prepare for what many believed could be an imminent confrontation. So what exactly is changing here? According to the new annual threat assessment from Director of National Intelligence TULSI GABBARD, the U.S. is now saying Beijing does not currently plan to carry out an invasion next year and doesn't appear to be operating on any fixed timeline at all. In other words, that clock that policymakers have been watching so closely may not be as real or as immediate as once believed. But here's where it gets more interesting. It's not just that China isn't planning to invade right now, according to the assessment. It's that US Intelligence believes Beijing would prefer not to use force if it can avoid it. Ha. Well, that isn't really a statement of rocket science once you think about it. Of course China would prefer taking Taiwan without firing a shot. It's no secret that a full scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan would be an incredibly complex operation for the People's Liberation army and Navy, and according to the intel assessment, a risky one that could fail, especially if the US Were to intervene on Taiwan's behalf. As we've been monitoring here on the pdb, Beijing is leaning on sustained military activity around the island, economic pressure, political influence, campaigns, and cyber operations, all designed to tighten its grip without triggering open conflict. It's sort of the soft takeover approach. Chinese President Xi Jinping continues to frame unification with Taiwan as a core national objective, with American intelligence pointing to any takeover, whether through the soft approach or military action or both likely happening prior to 2049. 2049 will be the centennial of the People's Republic of China. Now, this shifting intelligence assessment also lines up with something we've been watching on the policy side. The Trump administration has been working to stabilize relations with Beijing with the Pentagon, emphasizing what it calls strategic stability in the Indo Pacific. And President Trump has suggested that his relationship with Xi has helped reduce the immediate risk of a conflict, at one point saying he received assurances that China would not move on the island during his presidency. Well, if, if Xi says it, you can take that to the bank. But from Taiwan's perspective, not much has changed. Officials there say they are not easing their defense posture, pointing instead to internal issues inside China, including military purges and concerns about weapons performance that may have slowed Beijing's timeline but haven't changed its long term ambitions. So the clock may not be ticking toward 2027 in the way that many feared. But that doesn't mean, of course, that the threat is fading. If anything, this assessment suggests that the strategy is evolving to one that leans less on sudden military action and more on sustained pressure, covert action, disinformation and influence operations. Alright, coming up next in the back of the brief, a brutal display from Tehran as the regime publicly executes a 19 year old wrestler and two others in its crackdown on dissent. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with some good news from our friends over at CB Distillery. The VIP sale is happening now at CB Distillery. For a limited time you can save up to 50%. That's 5, 0, 50% on everything when you use the code VIP. If you're looking for better sleep or managing daily stress or easing stubborn post workout discomfort, well CB Distillery has plant based options to support sleep and mood and focus. And yes, it's true they even have CBD products for your pets. My own favorite is their sleep gummies with a combination of melatonin and cbd. Look, I spend a lot of time traveling and constantly moving through different time zones can really mess with your sleep. Every CB Distillery product is made with premium clean ingredients with no artificial fillers. 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In today's Back of the Brief, we're taking a closer look at two developments that together highlight a striking contrast inside Iran's ruling system. While Iran cracks down violently inside the country, its elite families are living very different lives abroad. We'll start inside Iran. According to multiple reports, Iranian authorities on Thursday carried out the public execution of three individuals accused of involvement in anti regime protests, including 19 year old champion wrestler Saleh Muhammadi. Muhammadi had been arrested during a sweeping crackdown on demonstrations in January, with authorities accusing him of the capital offense of quote, waging war against God, a charge the regime frequently uses against political dissidents. Human rights groups say Muhammadi was subjected to severe torture while in custody and forced to confess to the charges against him. They also say he was denied a fair trial, what with limited access to legal representation and proceedings that predictably fell far short of international standards. Well, there's a shock. Despite those concerns, Muhammadi was executed in a public hanging on Thursday alongside two other men identified in reports as fellow detainees arrested during the same wave of unrest. The executions have drawn sharp condemnation from international human rights organizations, which argue the regime is increasingly using public hangings as a tool of intimidation. Well, I'm sure their sharp condemnation will do the trick. But while ordinary Iranians face that kind of pressure at home, a very different picture is emerging abroad. According to an exclusive report from the New York Post, children and relatives of senior Iranian officials are living, studying and working at elite institutions across the U.S. despite the regime's long standing denunciations of America as the Great Satan. Among the most striking examples is that of the daughter of Ali Larajani, the man who was serving as Iran's de facto leader until he was reportedly killed in an airstrike earlier this week. His daughter, Fatma, is a medical doctor who worked at Emory University's prestigious Winship Cancer Institute in Atlanta until earlier this year. You can't make this up. When the university reportedly then cut ties following pressure from dissident groups, she initially came to the US for cancer treatment, a fact that human rights activists say underscores the hypocrisy of the ruling clerics in Tehran who limit access to basic health care for millions of Iranians. And she is far from alone. Numerous relatives of high ranking Iranian officials have reportedly studied or worked at prominent American universities. The daughter of a former Iranian president, for example, is reportedly teaching mathematics at a college in upstate New York. And in one particularly sensitive example, the daughter of Ayatollah Mustafa Damad and a niece of Ali Laranjani reportedly works as a professor in the Department of Nuclear Plasma and Radiological Engineering at the University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign. She's also the director of a unit that analyzes risks at commercial nuclear plants and reactors. Seriously, a team of comedy writers couldn't come up with something that good? Inside Iran, these individuals are often referred to as agazades or noble borns, a term that carries deep resentment among ordinary citizens who see the country's elite enjoying opportunities abroad while enforcing strict ideological controls at home. Experts estimate that between 4,000 and 5,000 relatives of Iranian regime officials are currently living in the US with hundreds more residing in countries like Canada and Australia, benefiting from access to Western education and advanced medical care, while the regime is busy executing young protesters at home. As one Iranian dissident bluntly put it, quote, they've turned Iran into a hell for us Iranians while their children live in the west, holding key positions in universities and spreading anti Western values. End quote. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Friday 20th March. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and congratulations, we have made it to the end of another week. Your well deserved reward is a brand new episode of our extended weekend show, the PDB Situation Report, launching this evening at 10:00pm on the First TV. Great guests, news, insight and the occasional clever question or comment from your host. You can also catch it on our YouTube channel. You can find that on YouTube, of course, just search up at President's Daily Brief and also on podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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