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The President's Daily Brief
March 25th, 2026: Why Reopening Hormuz Won’t Be Easy & Gulf States Inch Toward War With Iran
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It's Wednesday, the 25th of March. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And, yes, still on the road. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down. With hundreds of tankers sitting idle and reopening it may be far more difficult than Washington is letting on. I'll explain the challenges behind getting tanker traffic moving again in the Strait later in the show. Engulfed nations weigh direct military action against Iran as repeated attacks push the region closer to a widening conflict. Plus, Israel announces plans to take control of parts of southern Lebanon, suggesting a broader push against Hezbollah is underway. And in today's Back of the Brief, the Taliban, remember them, releases a US Citizen after more than a year in captivity in a rare moment of cooperation with Washington. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Hundreds of oil tankers are now sitting idle on either side of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery, of course, for the global energy market that has effectively choked off as the conflict with Iran continues. As the New York Times reported this week, nearly 500 vessels are currently stalled, waiting for some reassurance that it's safe to move again. As we've been reporting, oil prices are surging. Prices at the fuel pumps are rising, markets are rattled, and President Trump has vowed to reopen the strait one way or another. But here's the reality. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz is far more complicated than it may sound. Let's start with the geography. I mean, after all, who doesn't love a good geography lesson? At its narrowest point, the strait is only 21 miles wide. At its widest stretch, it's approximately 60 miles wide. But the shipping lanes, as one inbound and one outbound, are both only two miles wide. Those narrow lanes funnel massive oil tankers into predictable paths that run uncomfortably close to Iran's coastline. And that coastline isn't flat desert. It's rugged, elevated terrain dotted with islands that give Iranian forces clear lines of sight, an ideal positions for launching attacks It's a confined, highly controlled environment that heavily favors the defender. In practical terms, during a conflict such as what we have now, the Strait more closely resembles a maritime kill zone than a free flowing shipping route. And Iran doesn't need overwhelming force to take advantage of that. It just needs enough capability to make the waterway dangerous. Anti ship missiles, drones, fast attack boats, and importantly, sea mines all play a role. Many of these systems are mobile, easily concealed, and difficult to eliminate entirely. Even after sustained US And Israeli strikes, you're not really eliminating the threat, you're almost chasing it. And the reality is, success isn't about stopping most attacks. It's about stopping all of them. Without that, these shipping and insurance industries will continue to avoid the risk. You can degrade Iran's capabilities. You can strike at launch sites, you can patrol the waters with advanced warships and aircraft overhead. But if even one drone gets through, one missile finds its target, or one mine detonates beneath a tanker, well, the entire equation resets. Shipping halts, insurance rates spike, and confidence, what little there is will disappear overnight. That's why mines in particular are such a game changer. You don't even need to confirm that they're in the water. The mere possibility is enough to force a response. Clearing mines is slow, dangerous work that can take weeks, featuring specialized ships, constant air cover, and sailors operating in some of the most exposed conditions. And those mine clearing teams, well, they become targets themselves. So what would it actually take to reopen the Straight? At a minimum, a large scale military operation. Naval escorts to shepherd commercial tankers through the choke point. Minesweepers clearing lanes ahead of them. Aircraft overhead to intercept drones and strike missile positions along the coast. All of it coordinated, sustained and and resource intensive. Even then, there's a bottleneck problem. Before the conflict, roughly 80 oil and gas tankers were moving through the Strait each day. Escort operations don't scale easily to that level. You're moving ships and convoys a handful at a time along predetermined, cleared routes. That creates a backlog. Hundreds of ships waiting, limited capacity to move them, and a system that struggles to catch up. And here's the part that often gets overlooked. It's not just a military decision, because at the end of the day, it's not the Pentagon that decides when shipping resumes. It's the insurance and shipping market. Ship owners and insurers have to believe the risk is low enough to justify sending vessels back into the Strait. And as long as Iran retains the ability to take that one shot, that confidence will be fragile at best. Even reopening the strait doesn't fully solve the problem. Iran has already demonstrated that it can strike vessels not just inside the choke point, but in the broader Gulf Gulf and into the Gulf of Oman. That means ships may require protection well beyond the narrow passage itself, stretching U.S. and allied resources even further. And every step taken to secure the waterway carries its own risks. Escort missions could lead to direct confrontations. Strikes on Iranian positions could escalate the conflict. Even limited ground operations, seizing key islands, for example, could widen the war in ways that Washington may not intend to. So, yes, the US can reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It has the capability, it has the assets. But restoring normal traffic, well, that's a different question entirely. All right. Coming up next, Gulf states edge closer to joining the fight against Iran, while Israel signals a major expansion of its campaign in southern Lebanon. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. This episode is brought to you by Pocket Hose, the world's number one expandable hose. Now, if you know anything about hoses, and hopefully you do, you know that old school hoses always kink at the spigot. And nobody wants a kink at the spigot. But the brand new pocket hose Copperhead with pocket pivot, well, it's a total game changer. The pocket pivot swivels 360 degrees for great water flow and easy movement around the yard. And when you're done, this rust proof anti burst hose shrinks back to pocket size. Lightweight, easy to handle. No wrestling it onto a hook. You know what a mess that can be. It's ultra durable with a 10 year warranty. 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Whatever you're looking for, Fast Growing trees helps you find options that actually work for your climate, for your space, for your lifestyle. Right now they have great deals on spring planting essentials, up to half off on select plants. And listeners to The PDB get 20% off their first purchase when using the code PDB at checkout. That's an additional 20% off for better plants and better growing. At fastgrowingtrees.com using the code PDB at checkout. That's fastgrowingtrees.com code PDB now is the perfect time to plant and use code PDB to save today. Offer is valid for a limited time. Terms and conditions may apply. Welcome back to the pdb. As the war with Iran nears the fourth week mark, we're starting to see the posture across the Gulf begin to change. US Allies that were trying to stay on the sidelines find themselves leaning toward entering the fight. As we've been tracking, Gulf states had initially tried to stay out of this conflict, but sustained Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. and regional assets such as oil infrastructure, refineries, and even areas of major population centers like Riyadh, well, that makes that stance increasingly untenable. So at a certain point, these attacks from the regime stop being something the Gulf states can just absorb. And that's exactly where Saudi Arabia now finds itself. The kingdom, which had initially refused to allow its territory or airspace to be used for strikes on Iran, is now quietly reversed course, agreeing to let American forces operate out of King Fahd Air Base. Now that's a significant shift. Saudi Arabia's foreign minister made that clear, warning that, quote, patience with Iranian attacks is not unlimited, end quote. At the same time, this isn't just happening on the military side. The United Arab Emirates, uae, now finds itself opening an economic front in this war. Authorities in the UAE have begun shutting down Iranian linked institutions, including the Iranian Hospital and Iranian Club, while signaling that they could freeze billions of dollars in regime assets. UAE officials say the measures are targeting networks tied to the irgc, with the monarchy stating that certain institutions directly linked to the Iranian regime will be closed under targeted measures. Now, it's worth pausing on that for a second. The UAE has long been a financial hub for Iranian businesses. Cutting off that relationship impacts Iran's ability to access foreign currency and global trade. This move comes after the UAE has had to fend off more than 2,000 Iranian attacks since the war began. But I want to point out that the pressure on Gulf states isn't just coming from what Iran has already done. It's coming from what the regime may be signaling that it could do next. As I previously mentioned, Tehran has begun asserting that it wants a role in controlling the Strait of Hormuz. As our regular listeners are aware, Iran has effectively halted traffic by targeting commercial vessels while allowing select ships through. Now, the regime has floated the idea of charging tolls to use the strait, effectively turning the critical waterway into a long term economic lever. And for Gulf monarchies, well, that's a red line, because even partial control over Hormuz would give Iran enormous influence over global energy flows, something that Saudi Arabia and its neighbors are very unlikely to allow. So it's against that backdrop that conversations are beginning to shift in a more consequential way. Over the past week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been in direct contact with President Trump, reportedly pushing him to continue the assault on Iran and potentially expand the effort. MBS argues that the current U. S. Israel campaign presents what he described as a, quote, historic opportunity to remake the Middle east by eliminating the regime. That's according to the New York Times, Citing people briefed by US Officials. Sources familiar with these discussions state that the Saudi crown prince has urged Washington to target Iran's energy infrastructure. Supposedly, MBS has even floated the possibility that Washington deploy ground troops to seize key assets. At the same time, Gulf states are still weighing the risks of joining the fight directly. Entering the war would turn them into open combatants against a regional rival, exposing critical infrastructure and population centers to even more retaliation. There's also the concern that if Trump were to scale back the conflict, Gulf states could be left dealing with a more aggressive Iran on their own if they were to enter the fight, possibly sparking a long term war if the regime were to remain largely intact. I want to turn now to southern Lebanon where we're starting to get a better understanding of Israel's plans on the ground as they point to a more permanent shift in how Jerusalem intends to eliminate Hezbollah along its northern frontier. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the IDF is now preparing to expand the territory that it controls in southern Lebanon. And it's doing so with a very specific line in mind. That would be the Litany River. Now, we've talked about this specific geographic marker before. The river at its closest point sits only a few miles from Israel's northern border and at its farthest stretches about 20 miles into Lebanese territory. For years, the Litany has effectively served as a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah. Now Katz is signaling that Israel is preparing to hold everything south of the Litany, not as a temporary measure, but as part of a longer term security posture. He said hundreds of thousands of residents of southern Lebanon who were evacuated will not return south of the Litany river until the security of northern Israel is assured. End quote. So that's a clear, if not the clearest indication that Israel is no longer just trying to push Hezbollah back from the border, but to prevent Iran's strongest proxy from re establishing itself in the area altogether. On the ground, we've been tracking Israeli forces already shaping that reality. Katz says the military has bombed at least five bridges along the Litany routes he says Hezbollah uses to move weapons and reinforcements into the fight. The moves by the IDF aim at cutting off Hezbollah's ability to flow its terrorist forces into southern le and reconstitute along Israel's northern edge. And of course, this didn't begin with the current operation. As I mentioned, following the last ceasefire in late 2024, Israeli forces had established five outposts inside southern Lebanon near the border. What's happening now builds on that footprint, expanding beyond those limited positions and moving towards something that looks much closer to sustained territorial control. Inside Jerusalem's government, there is pressure to go even further. The hardline Israeli finance minister has called for the Latani river to become not just Israel's new security buffer, but rather its northern boundary, saying the current campaign in Lebanon must end with a fundamental change. And that reflects the broader view inside parts of the Israeli leadership that this moment isn't just about responding to Hezbollah attacks, but redrawing the map permanently. That idea is somewhat visible in how the current Israeli military push in southern Lebanon is actually being carried out. The operation began earlier this month after Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel in solidarity with Iran following the U. S. Israeli strikes on Tehran. Since then, Israeli forces have pushed into Lebanon, carrying out extensive airstrikes across the country, including in Beirut, targeting Hezbollah commanders, fighters, and infrastructure tied to the terror group's operations. At the same time, Katz says the IDF is systematically targeting border villages using what he described as the, quote, rafah model. That's a reference to IDF operations in Gaza, where entire areas were cleared and turned to rubble to deny Hamas the ability to reuse those positions. All right, coming up next, in the back of the brief, the Taliban releases a detained American after more than a year in custody. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you may know me as the host of the pdb. I mean, hopefully you do know me as the host of the pdb, but did you know I'm also a business owner? That's right. Have been for years. And as a business owner, I'm always focused on how to maintain client relationships and of course, find new clients. 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