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The President's Daily Brief
March 27th, 2026: U.S. Prepares "Final Blow” On Iran & Russia’s Satellite Scramble
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Foreign
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It's Friday, the 27th of March. Welcome to the president's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, new reporting reveals the Pentagon is preparing options for what officials describe as a potential, quote, final blow against Iran, including a massive bombing campaign and even the possibility of US Ground forces. Later in the show, Iran may be monetizing the chaos in the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran reportedly looks to charge ships for safe passage through the world's most critical oil choke point. Plus, Russia is working to overcome a major battlefield weakness, accelerating plans for its own satellite network after being cut off from Starlink. And in today's Back of the Brief, the Pentagon moves to ramp up munitions production, striking deals with major defense firms as the government looks to replenish. Stockpiles diminish, finished by both assistance to Ukraine and the current Iran conflict. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. The Pentagon is now actively preparing for what officials are describing as a potential final blow in the war with Iran, a set of options that would mark a significant escalation and, at least in theory, bring the conflict to a decisive close. At least in theory, according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions and speaking with Axios, those options range from a sweeping aircraft campaign targeting key military and nuclear infrastructure to far more aggressive moves, including the possible use of U.S. ground forces. the center of nearly every scenario is the Strait of Hormuz. One option under consideration involves seizing or blockading Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export hub, effectively cutting off a major revenue stream for the regime. Others focus on nearby strategic islands like Laraq and Abu Musa, positions that give Iran outsized control over shipping lanes through the Strait. There are also plans that would target Iranian oil exports more directly by intercepting or seizing vessels attempting to move crude out of the region. And then there's the most complex and risky scenario, ground operations deep inside Iran aimed at securing highly enriched uranium stockpiles reportedly buried within fortified nuclear facilities that would be obviously a major undertaking, requiring U.S. forces to operate far from friendly territory against a prepared adversary. The alternative, of course, is a massive bombing campaign designed to destroy or degrade those facilities from the air, though that comes with its own uncertainties about effectiveness. It's important to note that none of these options have been approved. The White House is still describing the more aggressive plans, particularly those involving ground forces, as hypothetical. But the planning is telling. As we've been reporting here on the pdb, the US Is moving additional assets into the region, including Marine Expeditionary Units, fighter squadrons, and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division. Those movements are about creating an enhanced playbook of military options, whether they're used or not. And the strategy appears fairly create enough military leverage to either force a diplomatic breakthrough or, if talks fail, move quickly into a more decisive phase of the conflict. But here's a reality check. There's no guarantee, of course, that pursuing the option of a final blow actually delivers a final blow. Iran still gets a vote in how this plays out, and many of these options, particularly anything involving strikes on infrastructure or territorial seizures, could just as easily prolong the fight and significantly increase the risks to U.S. personnel and to U.S. allies in the region. Tehran is already signaling as much, warning that any move against its territory or assets would trigger retaliatory strikes against critical infrastructure across the Gulf. At the same time, backchannel efforts to restart negotiations are reportedly still underway, with countries like Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey reportedly trying to bring both sides to the table. Meanwhile, we're getting a clearer picture of a key divide that's developing between Washington and Jerusalem when it comes to how this war should end. New reporting reveals that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recently pushed President Trump to jointly call on the Iranian people to rise up against the regime, an effort obviously aimed at accelerating internal collapse. Trump reportedly rejected the idea outright, arguing that encouraging civilians to take to the streets would likely result in them being killed in large numbers without any guarantee of success. That decision shows a fundamental difference in the approach to any potential endgame. Israeli officials have made it clear that they see regime collapse as a central objective, and recent targeted strikes on senior Iranian figures and the internal security apparatus appear designed, at least in part, to weaken the government's ability to suppress dissent. The thinking, of course, is that enough pressure from above could create space for unrest below. But so far that hasn't materialized. Despite the strikes and the perceived instability at the top, very few Iranians have taken to the streets, a sign that fear of the regime's response still outweighs any sense of opportunity, which is understandable given that the regime advised its citizens that if they go out into the streets, they will be killed. That's a fairly strong incentive to stay home. For the Trump administration, regime change appears to be more of a secondary outcome than a primary goal, something that might happen, but not something they're willing to force at the cost of significant civilian casualties or an uncontrollable spiral into chaos. Alright, coming up next, Iran looks to profit off control of the Strait of Hormuz with new shipping tolls demanding large payments for safe passage as Russia races to build a satellite alternative after being cut off from Starlink. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, as a business owner myself, I've got an important message for anyone starting a business or trying to kickstart or grow your existing business. Here's the thing. When you're starting something new, whatever the business, finding the right tool to simplify everything is a game changer for millions of businesses. That tool is Shopify. Shopify is for all shapes and sizes of business, from known brands like Heinz to businesses just starting out. 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Welcome back to the pdb. Well, never miss an opportunity to monetize a crisis. Iran is reportedly charging vessels for quote, safe passage through the strait and the regime is preparing legislation to make that the new stand standard according to Iran's Revolutionary Guard aligned. Far as news agency lawmakers have already begun drafting the measure with a bill expected to be finalized next week. Before heading to parliament. The regime essentially is trying to formalize control over one of the most important shipping lanes on the planet, claiming that any ship that wants safe passage needs to pay the toll. One Iranian lawmaker on state TV even described this as part of a new quote, sovereign regime over the strait, essentially arguing that Tehran has the authority to manage it, charge for it, and use it to offset the costs of the war. So the question is, has this already been happening? By several accounts and sources familiar with the situation, this isn't just a proposal sitting on paper. Multiple reports indicate Iran has already begun charging ships as much as $2 million for what it calls safe passage through the strait, meaning the IRGC will stand down from attacking vessels that pay the toll. The maritime publication Lloyd's List reports that at least one tanker is believed to have made that payment. Now, exactly how that money is moving is unclear because Iran is under heavy sanctions, which makes it extremely difficult to process dollar based transactions through the global financial system. But here's what matters. Even with those constraints, there are clear signs that this is already being enforced in practice. And while some regime officials are denying it publicly, others are openly acknowledging it. So you're getting two very different messages coming out of Tehran at the same time. As you might suspect, this concept of extorting ships for safe passage through a waterway runs counter to international law. Under international maritime law, the Strait of Hormuz is classified as a transit passage, which means ships have the right to move through it freely without interference, without obstruction, and without paying fees. That principle is one of the foundations of global trade. As we've been monitoring, traffic through this trade has slowed to a near standstill after four weeks of conflict between the U.S. israel and Iran. More than 3,200 vessels are now reportedly stranded or rerouting as security risks continue to rise. At the same time, attacks on energy infrastructure and production slowdowns have pushed oil prices sharply higher. Brent crude futures surging to as high as $165 a barre, with US crude pushing toward $100 a barrel. So how is Washington responding? Well, President Trump is pushing for a multinational naval effort to escort commercial shipping through the Gulf in an attempt to reassert freedom of navigation and push back against Iran's attempt to control the strategic waterway. But getting that coalition together hasn't been straightforward. European countries, including Germany, France and Italy, signaled they may be willing to participate, but only once, fighting subs. And even then, the International Maritime Organization made it clear that naval escorts are not a long term solution. After all, this type of operation, which has been done in the Red Sea in response to past Houthi aggression, is only effective while it lasts. Okay. Turning now to the war in Ukraine. For months, Russian forces have been quietly tapping into the Starlink satellite system used by the Ukraine military. They didn't have a system of their own. So instead, the Kremlin found a way to piggyback off of Starlink smuggling terminals through third countries, gaining limited access and using that to keep their ground forces connected. And the importance of Starlink cannot be understated. For Ukraine, it's given their military and government the ability to coordinate in real time, operate drones beyond the line of sight, and stay connected even under heavy electronic warfare. So when Russian forces managed to tap into that same system, even in a limited way, it gave the Russian military many of the same capabilities. But that workaround by the Kremlin didn't last. Just last month, it was abruptly cut off after SpaceX implemented a strict verification and so called whitelist system across all Starlink terminals operating in Ukraine, which came at the direct request of Kyiv's defense leadership. Every device was temporarily disconnected, then forced to register with the Ministry of Defense via Kyiv's battlefield management platform. So almost immediately, Russian illicit Starlink units began going dark. Communications broke down, drone operations slowed, and in some cases, according to Ukrainian operators, entire Russian posts were left effectively blind. One Russian soldier said, communication has come down to, quote, radios, cables and pigeons, end quote. Ukrainian forces took note of that shift quickly. Battlefield commanders observed Russian attacks decreasing across multiple sectors, and coordination on the Russian side became more fragmented. Most importantly, the shift allowed, for the first time in quite a while, momentum to start moving in Kyiv's favor. Ukrainian President Zelensky said his forces already recaptured roughly 460 square kilometers of territory since the start of 2026, some of their most meaningful gains in years. And that gets to the bigger issue that Russia is now facing. This isn't just about access to a valuable communications tool being cut off. It's about a deeper structural gap that's been there since the start of Putin's invasion. From day one, Russia has been fighting without a true equivalent to Starlink. And that gap has shown up everywhere from command and control to drone warfare to basic unit coordination under pressure. Ukraine, by contrast, has been able to operate with secure, jam resistant communications across the battlefield. That's not something you can easily replicate, and it's not something that Russia's partners, including China, have been able to fix. So now Moscow is trying to build its own answer. This week, Russia launched the first batch of satellites for what it hopes to will be a direct rival to Starlink, a state funded low earth orbit Internet constellation known as Rassvet, developed by the Aerospace Firm Bureau 1440. At this point, it's a very small start with just 16 satellites in orbit, and even those aren't fully operational yet. According to the company, they'll need to go through testing before transitioning into their final positions as part of a much larger network. But the ambition is clear. Russia says it wants at least 250 satellites in orbit by 2027, with a longer term goal of more than 900 by 2035. And if that system ever becomes fully operational, it will provide the kind of high bandwidth connectivity that's proven so decisive on the battlefield in Ukraine. But here's the reality check. As you can assume Russia is not building this from a position of strength. It's trying to catch up and it's already behind Moscow. Originally planned to have around 300 satellites in orbit by the end of 2025, as of March 2026, it only has 16. SpaceX still operates the only global high bandwidth satellite network with more than 10,000 satellites in orbit. It allows Starlink to function even under attack or disruption. It's something that Russia is a long ways away from being able to replicate. Okay, coming up next in the back of the brief, the Pentagon is moving to replenish and expand its munition stockpiles, cutting deals with defense companies to surge production. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, do you find that you wake up needing nicotine or coffee just to feel normal and to get your day started? Or do you need multiple pouches or coffees or energy drinks to avoid a midday crash? Well, here's my top tip. Switch to Ultra Pouches. They're completely nicotine and caffeine free and they deliver smooth, lasting focus using clinically backed nootropics like Infinity PX Alpha GPC and B vitamins. There's no jitters, no crashes, no withdrawals. You feel more balanced and you sleep better. How's that sound? You still get the pouch experience, just without the downsides. Amazing. For energy workouts and recovery, 90% of users saw significant improvements in their overall focus. 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In today's Back of the Brief, the war with Iran is now exposing a growing problem for the US after weeks of sustained strikes and missile defense operations, the US Military is burning through munitions at a pace that's raising concerns about how long the stockpiles can last. And in response, Washington is now moving to put parts of the defense industry on what officials describe as a, quote, wartime footing. According to reporting from Reuters, the Pentagon reached new agreements on Wednesday with major defense contractors including Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems and Honeywell, to ramp up production of critical weapons systems. That includes efforts to significantly expand missile defense and long range strike capabilities. BAE Systems in Lockheed Martin are now set to quadruple production of Seekers for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or thaad, interceptor. And a new framework agreement with Lockheed will accelerate production of its precision strike missile. According to the Pentagon. Honeywell, meanwhile, has agreed to invest roughly $500 million to expand manufacturing of key components for America's munitions stockpile, while working to scale production lines that until recently were calibrated for peacetime demand. And that urgency is being driven by what US forces are already seeing on the battlefield. The US military has been expending large volumes of high end munitions in its ongoing operations against Iran, including air defense interceptors and precision guided weapons used to strike Iranian targets and defend allied infrastructure. But those stockpiles were already under strain. Over the past two years, the US has supplied billions of dollars worth of weapons to Ukraine as it defends against Russia's invasion, while also supporting Israel's military operations in Gaza. Those overlapping commitments have steadily drawn down billions of dollars worth of key systems, particularly the very interceptors and precision munitions now being used in the Iran conflict. And now, analysts warn the burn rate is outpacing production. According to reporting From Business Insider, US forces used more than 11,000 munitions in roughly the first two weeks of the Iran conflict, raising concerns that certain high end systems, including Thaad interceptors and long range strike missiles, could run low within weeks. At current usage levels, that pressure is already forcing difficult decisions. Reuters reports that the Pentagon is now weighing whether to divert some weapons originally intended for Ukraine to the Middle east, underscoring just how finite these stockpiles have become. At the same time, the supply chain itself is becoming a major constraint. Key materials like tungsten, which is used in many advanced munitions, are being consumed at a rate that could create bottlenecks if the conflict continues at its current pace. And that gets to the core issue. The US is now engaged directly or indirectly in multiple high intensity conflicts. But much of its defense industrial base is still structured for a very different era, one defined by smaller scale operations and lower sustained demand. The major issue now as the US shifts its defense contractors to a wartime footing is the pace. Because even as the Pentagon moves to ramp up production, rebuilding stockpiles takes time. And right now the US is using these weapons and munitions faster than it can replace them. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Friday 27th March. Now if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me@pdbhefirsttv.com and a quick check of the calendar does confirm that it is indeed Friday. And as you've probably heard from friends and family, every Friday we launch a brand new episode of our extended weekend show, the PDB Situation Report. Tune in at 10pm this evening on the first TV. And as always, you can catch it and past episodes on our YouTube channel. Just wander on over to YouTube and search up at President's Daily Brief. And of course, you can also find the situation report on podcast platforms all over podcast land. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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