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The President's Daily Brief
March 31st, 2026: Russia’s Hidden Hand In Iran War & Trump Relents On Cuba Energy Blockade
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It's Tuesday 31st March. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the war in Ukraine and the war with Iran may be starting to overlap or perhaps collide in a new way. New claims confirm earlier reports that Russia is helping Iran target US Assets in the Middle east, while Ukraine is working with Gulf states to help defend against that threat. I'll have the details later in the show. Beijing is making an effort to set the table ahead of the President Trump and Xi Jinping summit, inviting Taiwan's opposition leader, not their actual leader, for a visit and an effort to shape the conversation around US Arms sales. But with American lawmakers pressing Taipei to accelerate defense spending, well, that effort may run into resistance. Plus, the Trump administration just allowed a sanctioned Russian oil tanker to reach Cuba, throwing a critical but temporary lifeline to a regime that Washington has been working to squeeze via a blockade at sea. And in today's Back of the brief, after years of absence, the US Is reestablishing a diplomatic presence in Venezuela, pairing a reopened embassy with new licenses targeting Caracas oil and mineral wealth. It's an opportunity for Venezuela to perhaps spur its post Maduro recovery. But first, today's PDB spotlight. It increasingly appears that Russia's support for Iran is going far beyond rhetoric. Now, we've discussed this a few times here on the pdb, but the Kremlin's support may now be actively shaping battlefield dynamics. And if that's the case, it could help explain one of the most significant Iranian strikes of the war. As we covered on yesterday's pdb, an Iranian drone and missile attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia left at least a dozen American troops wounded, some seriously, and caused severe damage to US Aircraft, including what appears to be the destruction of a high value airborne command and control platform. The strike immediately raised serious questions about how Iran was able to carry out such a precise and coordinated attack on a key U.S. installation. And now we may be getting part of the answer According to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, Russia may have played a direct role in helping Iran identify and target US Military assets in the region. Zelenskyy said over the weekend that Russian satellites photographed several U.S. and allied facilities, including Prince Sultan Air Base, shortly before they he also claimed Moscow provided that intelligence directly to the Iranian regime to support its targeting efforts. Now, to be clear, those claims have not been independently verified, and it won't shock you to hear that The Kremlin has of course denied sharing intelligence with Iran. But Zelenskyy is not alone in raising these concerns. European officials are also increasingly warning that Russia's support for Iran may be deeper and more operational than Washington has publicly acknowledged. Now, the White House has been dismissive of earlier reports indicating that both Russia and China have been supporting Iran with both targeting data and insight and advice on drone warfare. According to reporting from CBS News, multiple European allies have told US Diplomats that Moscow is providing intelligence to Iran on US Positions in the Middle East. France's foreign minister described the relationship as two way cooperation, while a senior UK official noted Russia's defense ties with Iran have expanded significantly in recent years, particularly of course due to the war in Ukraine. The European Union's top diplomat, Kayakalas, went even further, warning G7 leaders last week that Russia is helping Iran target and quote, kill Americans, while adding that Moscow is also providing offensive military hardware. Now the US Officials are publicly downplaying the impact of that cooperation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week that Russia is not doing anything that is meaningfully affecting US Operations or their effectiveness in the region, underscoring a clear gap between allied warnings and Washington's public assessment. It does appear that the US Administration is keen to avoid drawing Russia into an already complicated conflict by acknowledging Moscow's support to the Iranian regime. So better to say that it is not meaningful. Still, there are more concrete signs that the Russian Iran friendship and partnership is evolving. According to European and US Officials who spoke anonymously to the Associated Press, Iran has been sent at least one shipment of upgraded drone systems from Moscow, platforms that reflect lessons learned from years of battlefield use in Ukraine. Those systems are believed to include more advanced variants of the Shahed one way attack drones, along with improvements in guidance and range and resistance to electronic warfare. It's not clear whether this was a one time shipment or the first in a series or how many drones were delivered, but a US Defense official remarked that Moscow's motivation for sending Iran drones is a little mystifying given that Moscow has been heavily relying on Iranian made shahed drones in their war on Ukraine. As the official pointed out to the Apostle, every munition sent to Tehran is one less that Russia has to use against Kyiv. Still, it's a clear signal that Moscow's support for Iran is more substantive than the Kremlin is letting on. But just as Russia is increasing its support for Iran, Ukraine is moving to help US Partners defend against the drone threat, with Zelenskyy traveling to the Middle east over the weekend to secure drone defense partnerships. According to reporting from the New York Times, Ukraine signed or is finalizing long term agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to share its expertise in countering drone and missile threats, technology and tactics that it developed while defending against Russia's own four year long drone campaign. Zelensky says those agreements could be worth billions and include the exchange of expertise in air defense and unmanned systems. It is worth noting that Ukraine has already sent more than 200 air defense specialists to the region as Gulf states, many of which host US Military bases, come under increasing attack from Iranian drones. So while Russia is allegedly helping Iran improve its ability to strike US Targets, Ukraine is now working with those same regional partners to help defend against that threat. So what goes around comes around and it's a perfect example of how interconnected the world is. Nothing happens in isolation in an ever shrinking global environment. But given that many in Ukraine and Europe are questioning strategic moves recently made by the Trump administration beyond the battlefields of the Middle East. As we've been tracking, the war with Iran has pushed oil prices sharply higher, providing a financial boost to Moscow at a time when Western pressure was beginning to straighten its economy. At the same time, the Trump administration has moved to ease some sanctions on Russian oil exports in an effort to stabilize global markets. Zelenskyy reiterated his sharp criticism of that decision over the weekend, describing the situation as strange and noting, quote, sanctions are being lifted while the aggressor is providing intelligence to strike facilities, end quote. Now that's a contradiction that may become harder for Washington to ignore as we learn more about Russia's role in this evolving conflict. And if that seems like a contradiction, there's also the plan by the White House to allow for the sale of Iranian oil currently in limbo at sea, sitting in tankers but unable to be offloaded and sold due to sanctions. In a play to keep fuel prices from rising even higher, the administration has discussed easing those sanctions so that Iranian oil could get into the markets, which could end up putting billions of dollars in the hands of the Iranian regime. It's what clever people call a conundrum. And no, I probably couldn't spell conundrum. Alright, coming up next, Beijing makes an early play to shape the conversation around Taiwan ahead of the Trump Xi summit. And the Trump administration relents slightly on the energy blockade of Cuba, allowing a sanctioned Russian oil tanker to reach the beleaguered island. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a message for dog lovers. And who's not a dog lover? Come on, if you're like me, dogs are an important part of the family. Right? We've got two our golden retriever, Hendrix, he's a good old boy now hitting his 14th year. And Monty, our cute but somewhat dim witted King Charles spaniel. Now, as you probably know, when it comes to your dog food, well, there always seems to be a compromise. It's either fresh and healthy or it's easy to store and serve. And that's why we love Sundaes for Dogs. Because with the Sundaes for Dogs brand, you can get both right fresh and healthy dog food that's easy to store and serve. It's founded by veterinarian Dr. Tori Waxman. 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Welcome back to the pdb. I want to turn to what China is doing ahead of President Trump's upcoming summit because Chinese President Xi Jinping isn't just sitting around waiting for those talks to begin. He's taking steps involving Taiwan, inviting an opposition leader to Beijing to influence the conversation before it begins. What Xi is doing Here is very deliberate. He's bringing Taiwan's opposition leader Chang Liwun to Beijing just weeks before sitting down with Trump in mid May. And the goal is, well fairly shape the conversation around US Support for Taiwan. And from Xi's perspective, the added benefit is to create tension on the island between the opposition party and the current leadership of Lai Ching Te. Because from Beijing's perspective, if it can show that high level political engagement with Taiwan is still possible, of course that would be on China's terms, then it can begin to argue that Washington's role, especially when it comes to arms sales, isn't just unnecessary, it's destabilizing. Again, notice that Xi isn't talking to the actual leadership of Taiwan, whom Xi aggressively denounces as hostile to the Chinese Communist Party. Instead, he's throwing a bone to the opposition. The invitation is aimed squarely at the opposition Nationalist Party, which has historically been more open to closer ties with Beijing. And Cheng herself has leaned into that, arguing that maintaining peace means engaging China more directly. She's now accepted the invitation, framing the visit as a way to show that war across the Taiwan Strait is not inevitable. It's essentially Xi Jinping's soft war approach. And Cheng is playing into it. Because while China continues to refuse to rule out the use of force to take Taiwan, it's simultaneously trying to present itself as a willing negotiating partner, at least with the political factions that it sees as more favorable to the ccp. It's a dual track approach. Apply pressure on one side while shaping perception on the other. And that's where the internal pressure inside Taiwan starts to build. Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council has already issued a warning making clear that any piece built solely on the goodwill of China's Communist Party would come with serious risks. And for that, we award Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council today's PDB statement of the obvious award. Congratulations. And even within Cheng's own opposition party, critics are raising concerns that moving too close to Beijing could undermine Taiwan's relationship with the US Its most important security partner. So while China is projecting cooperation, it's also deepening political divisions inside Taiwan at a moment when unity matters most, which, as mentioned, is all part of the CCP's strategy. Now, at the very same time, Washington is also actively engaged in working to shape Taiwan's movements. A bipartisan group of US Senators are in Taiwan with a clear objective push forward on defense. They are pressing Taiwanese lawmakers to move ahead with a $40 billion defense package proposed by President Lai Ching Te funding designed to strengthen the island's military capabilities over the next eight years. Right now, the defense package is stalled in Taiwan's legislature, with opposition parties calling for smaller budgets and stricter over oversight. But the clock is ticking. Taiwan is facing immediate payment deadlines for several major US Weapons systems, including self propelled howitzers, along with follow on orders of Javelins and anti tank missiles. With initial payments due well today. And even where there's some flexibility, like with Himars rocket systems, where deadlines have been extended into May, the window to act is still narrow. Once contracts are finalized, Taiwan will essentially have just days to complete payment. Taiwan's president acknowledged the delays pointing to political divisions at home, but made it clear that Taiwan's commitment to strengthening its defenses and deepening cooperation with Washington has not changed in the slightest. China is trying to use selective diplomacy to weaken the case for US Military support and to reshape how this issue is viewed ahead of that Trump summit, while the US Is pressuring Taiwan to move faster, spend more, and prepare for a threat that continues to grow. Okay, I want our attention turned to Cuba, if I may, where the US has just allowed a sanctioned Russian oil tanker to reach the communist island, delivering a lifeline to a regime that Washington has been trying to squeeze for months. We've been tracking this tanker since it started making its way toward Cuba at the start of March. As our regular listeners know, the Trump administration has been trying to choke off fuel shipments to the island with what amounts to an energy blockade, pressuring allies, cutting off deliveries, and in some cases even turning tankers around before they could arrive. The goal has been to tighten the screws on Cuba's communist government and force real pressure on the regime to collapse. And we've already seen the strategy of forcing a reroute play out. Just recently, a Hong Kong flagged tanker carrying Russian diesel, that would be the Seahorse, was headed toward Cuba, but ultimately diverted to Venezuela to avoid a direct confrontation with that U.S. blockade. But according to a U.S. official briefed on the matter who spoke to the New York Times, the Russian flagged Anatoly kolodkin, carrying roughly 730,000 barrels of crude, is already sitting in Cuban territorial waters. It's owned by a Russian state run company that was sanctioned by Washington back in 2024. But despite that fact, the US chose not to act. In fact, two Coast Guard cutters in the region could have attempted to intercept this vessel, but they didn't. So naturally, the question is why? Well, part of the answer comes from the broader picture. Right now, the Trump administration is Heavily engaged, obviously, in the war in Iran. And intercepting a Russian tanker just 90 miles off Florida doesn't happen in a vacuum. It likely risks triggering some sort of confrontation with Moscow at a moment when the administration already has a lot of plates spinning. So instead, the White House appears to have made a calculated decision, and that decision was confirmed publicly. Speaking aboard Air Force One, President Trump said the US does not mind if countries send fuel to Cuba in the short term. And while the President has made clear this won't change Cuba's long term trajectory, as the communist system is already failing in the near term, this shipment still buys the regime time. The reality is Cuba's energy crisis is the result of years of economic mismanagement. Under its communist government, the island is still dealing with daily blackouts, severe fuel shortages, and failing basic services. This shipment alleviates the pressure, but in no way solves the Cuban government's problems. The crude oil that will be offloaded from the Klodkin can be refined into diesel and gasoline and jet fuel and fuel oil used to power much of Cuba's energy infrastructure. Now, the process will take time, roughly three weeks to refine and another week to distribute, but it does buy the regime some breathing room. As I mentioned, the Trump administration has been increasing economic pressure on Havana, threatening tariffs and cutting off fuel flows, and openly calling for political change. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said the system itself needs to change. And the White House has pushed for the removal of Cuban President Miguel Diaz Canel. Inside Cuba, the regime is reportedly using this moment to attempt to stabilize, if only briefly. Officials warn they are prepared to defend the country if tensions escalate, even as they work to shore up an energy system that's still on the verge of failure. Coming up next, in the back of the brief, the US Re establishes a diplomatic presence in Venezuela while granting new licenses targeting the country's oil and mineral wealth. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me ask you a question. Have you ever left the doctor's office feeling like. Well, like you got nothing out of it. You're just standard instructions to eat right and exercise. And we'll thank you for that advice. Well, that's why I want to tell you about Superpower. It's a tremendous app that can help you stay on top of your health. 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Hey, this is Mike Slater. I have a podcast called Politics by Faith. I would love for you to listen. We take the news of the day and we run it through the Bible. What does the Bible have to say about this? Because there's nothing new under the sun. You read the headlines. Everything's all crazy. World's coming to an end. It's all in the Bible. And after every episode, hopefully you leave with a proper perspective and a biblical piece. Please join us wherever you listen to podcasts and we also have a YouTube page as well. YouTube.com politics by faith hi, this is Alex Kanchrowitz.
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In Today's Back of the Brief new developments in Venezuela, where the US Is reopening its embassy in Caracas after a seven year absence. According to a State Department readout, the US Embassy is officially resuming operations, restoring a diplomatic presence that was shut down back in 2019. This is being described as a new chapter in U S Venezuela relations. In the readout, the move is described as a key milestone tied directly to President Trump's broader plan for the South American country, following, of course, the removal of Nicolas Maduro earlier this year. This is about putting American diplomats back on the ground inside Venezuela with the ability to engage directly with the interim government and civil society and the private sector, something that Washington didn't have the ability to do for years. The top US Diplomat in Caracas, Laura Dogu, who arrived in the country in January of this year, is leading that effort and her team is preparing for the return of personnel and the eventual restart of consular services. To better understand why this is so significant, you have to go back to how things broke down in 2019. Maduro cut ties with the US after Washington recognized opposition leader Juan Gaedo as president. The embassy was shut down, diplomats were pulled out, and from that point forward, everything had to be managed remotely. Now compare that to where things stand today. Maduro is out. An interim government is in place under Delsey Rodriguez. Okay, admittedly she was the VP under Maduro and she is someone with deep ties to the Maduro regime. But the US Is now back in country, working directly with the current government. At the same time, the Trump administration is rolling out a series of economic measures designed to open up Venezuela's resources while maintaining control over how that process unfolds. On Friday, the Treasury Department issued three new general licenses tied to the country's mining industry. One license allows American entities to purchase, transport and sell Venezuelan minerals, including gold, but stops short of allowing extraction or refining. Another authorizes American companies to provide the equipment and services needed to support mining operations and a third allows firms to begin negotiating contracts with Venezuelan state entities, though those agreements still require additional approvals before they can be finalized. The Trump administration is working to open up Venezuela's economy while tightly shaping the terms of that opening, obviously in favor of the U.S. under Washington's oversight, these licenses come with clear restrictions. Entities tied to China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and Cuba are blocked from participating. And just as importantly, all payments tied to Venezuelan resources are being routed through U.S. controlled accounts, giving Washington direct oversight over how revenues flow. Essentially, the US Is stepping back into Venezuela not just as a partner but as a central player in how the country rebuilds, helping shape investment, control revenue flows and determine which sectors move first. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Tuesday, 31st March. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me@pdbhefirsttv.com the entire PDB staff, including our above average intern team, loves hearing from you. Every month we select a bunch of your questions and there's some really great ones, and we produce an episode that we call Ask Me Anything. The latest episode is in the hopper, as they say, and ready for launch. And I suspect that I just created a mixed metaphor, but you get my drift. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.