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The President's Daily Brief
March 4th, 2026: Iran Chooses A New Supreme Leader & The Limits Of Tehran’s War
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It's Wednesday the 4th of March. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Iranian clerics have chosen their new supreme leader, Moshtaba Khamenei. Now, if that name sounds familiar, it's because he's the son of the late Ali Khamenei. How about that? But even as the regime appoints a new head of state, questions are being asked about how long the regime can keep up their fight. I'll have the details later in the show. European nations continue to keep their distance from the ongoing campaign against Iran. And as Spain denies US Forces access to key military bases. Plus, the war in Iran isn't the only conflict burning in the region. Pakistan and Afghanistan are trading cross border strikes for a fifth straight day with neither side appearing to be ready to stand down. And in today's back of the brief, Venezuelan opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado plans to return to Venezuela in the coming weeks with an eye toward elections and unifying her supporters. But first, today's pdb. Despite yesterday's bombing of the organization tasked with choosing Iran's next leader, the so called assembly of Experts, Iran's clerics have reportedly elected Mojdaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the country's new supreme leader. The announcement from opposition outlets says the vote was carried out under pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the irgc. So you're asking yourself, who exactly is this Mujtaba Khamenei? Well, he's 56 years old. And until now, these operated largely in the shadows. Unlike his father, he never held a formal senior government post. He's not known for delivering fiery sermons or shaping public doctrine. Instead, he built influence the old fashioned way inside the Islamic Republic through relationships and patronage networks and deep ties to the irgc. In other words, he's likely a guy that the IRGC believes it can control. Now here's the part that could create friction inside the regime. This looks an awful lot like dynastic succession, right? A father handing power down to his son. And that's historically taboo among Iran's clerical class. And for some hardliners, it is a problem. The Supreme Leader is supposed to be chosen for religious stature and political judgment, not bloodline. And if this starts to feel a bit Shah, like they could quietly unsettle parts of the clerical establishment, even if they don't say so publicly. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime continues its retaliatory strikes, and it now appears to be focusing directly on US Diplomatic facilities. As of today, Iran has carried out direct attacks on U.S. embassies in many of the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and Dubai. Casualties have reportedly been minimal. At this point, most of these facilities had been partially or fully evacuated well in advance of the strikes, limiting the exposure of diplomatic personnel. However, that targeting choice is telling, and it fits into a broader pattern that we're seeing in how Iran is prosecuting this phase of the conflict. Since the start of US Israeli strikes this weekend, we've heard a lot about the Allies ability to sustain the campaign, with particular concerns about missile interceptor stockpiles. Now, that's a serious issue, and one that is of particular concern for Israel and numerous Arab states. But the military math on that cuts both ways. Meaning the fewer missiles and drones Iran fires, the fewer interceptors will be necessary for defense. And yes, I know that is not exactly a statement of rocket science. We've seen Iran's rate of fire drop significantly since the opening days of this conflict. And while its missile stockpiles may still be substantial, inventory alone, of course, doesn't determine capability. Getting a missile off the ground obviously requires infrastructure. And yes, of course, that is another brilliant observation on my part. But stay with me on this track. First, what you need, you have to be able to transport the missile from storage to a launcher without detection. And based on the level of intelligence that the Allies appear to be operating on, including highly precise strikes against command and control centers and launch platforms, it's a reasonable assumption they have significant visibility into missile depots and transport networks. If that's the case, movement becomes vulnerability. Moving a missile from depot to launcher isn't just logistics, it's exposure. Every convoy risks detection. Every relocation risks surveillance. And if transport routes are being monitored consistently, that alone can reduce operational tempo dramatically. Next, and you probably saw this coming. Well, you need launchers. Both mobile launchers and fixed platforms have been priority targets for Israel and the U.S. the IDF announced yesterday that since the start of the war, its force had destroyed some 300 launchers, although they did not specify how many remain. Even if a launcher survives, it has to reposition, reload and conceal itself. And all of that has to happen under persistent aerial and satellite surveillance. Then there's command and control. Early in this conflict there were signs that Iran's command structure was disrupted. With indications that some units may have been operating on standing orders or previously issued instructions rather than dynamic real time centralized direction. Iran's decentralized structure might keep missiles in the air in the short term, but decentralization under stress can also mean slower decision making, fragmented coordination and reduced tempo. And then comes targeting again. We can draw some conclusions based on what we're seeing right now. Iran appears to be striking almost exclusively static targets. Bases, embassies, fixed infrastructure. Those can be hit with pre programmed coordinates. Of course they don't require real time targeting data or the ability to adapt mid flight to changing additions. That pattern suggests Tehran strikes are relying on preset routes and known locations, not on the ability to track and engage dynamic targets on the fly. Now a note of caution here. None of this would have come as a surprise to Tehran. IRGC planners would have been well aware of their own limitations. Iran's military doctrine has long assumed it would operate under intense surveillance and air dominance from the US or Israel. And it was likely crafted around these assumptions. We see that in their emphasis on mobile launchers, decentralized command and preset target packages. Because again, Iranian planners understood their limitations and disadvantages. They essentially built a system designed to absorb disruption and to keep firing even if central command went down. But there's a difference between being able to absorb disruption and sustaining a campaign. Decentralization can keep missiles flying for a time. Pre programmed targeting can deliver strikes on embassies and fixed sites. Dispersed launchers can make tracking them more difficult. But what becomes difficult is sustaining high tempo adaptive missile warfare against an opponent with continuous battlefield visibility and total air superiority. You don't have to eliminate every missile in an arsenal to blunt their effectiveness. You just have to disrupt enough links in the chain. Transport launchers, communications, targeting, and the system begins to seize up. Alright, coming up next, Spain denies US access to key military bases tied to the Iran campaign. While Pakistan and Afghanistan trade cross border strikes for a fifth straight day. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here to tell you about a great company out there that every food loving person should know about. It's called Goldbelly. Have you heard about them? They are terrific. Look, if you're a foodie, you're going to love Goldbelly. It's an amazing site that celebrates the best of the US by shipping the country's most iconic foods from legendary restaurants and chefs straight to your door. It's that simple. Now, I've been a fan for a while now, and one of my many favorites is Franklin's barbecue from Austin. I'm talking brisket, ribs, the full Texas spread. I ordered it for poker night at the Baker compound and it showed up fast. 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Welcome back to the pdb. When the US Joined Israel in striking Iran, American military planes stationed in Spain found themselves tangled in a dispute as Madrid refused to allow their use in Operation Epic Fury. And what was supposed to be routine coordination quickly became a diplomatic rupture as the American strikes on the Islamic Republic unfolded. Spain's left wing government didn't quietly express reservations behind closed doors in some diplomatic fashion. No. In an impressive display of performative theater, Spain's government made a very public display of their socialist leanings. Spain's Defense Ministry confirmed that at least 11 US refueling aircraft departed the Rota and Morone bases after Madrid barred the country as a launch pad for operations against the regime. Spain's foreign minister in a TV interview made clear that, quote, spanish military bases will not be used for anything that falls outside the agreement with the U.S. and the UN Charter. He described the U.S. israeli strikes as, quote, unilateral, a term earlier used by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in his condemnation of Washington's military action. Spain's Defense Minister, Margarita Robles, reinforced that position, arguing that the country's bilateral defense agreement only permits base access within what Madrid considers the framework of international law, and that's a threshold she claimed had been crossed. The Rota and Maron military installations have long supported American counterterrorism operations in Africa, and the bases were used during the chaotic evacuation from Afghanistan led by the Biden administration. So there's a history here of coordination, and that is well standard inside of NATO. Yet at a pivotal moment, Spain's socialist government chose to make a political stand rather than take a stand against the brutal and repressive Iranian regiment. Just a short few weeks ago, those same Spanish leaders made a public show of just how upset they were with the Iranian leadership over the killing of thousands of Iranian protesters. Why, the Spanish leaders even went so far as telling the Iranian envoy to Spain that they were very upset. They really took a stand on that one. To be fair, Prime Minister Sanchez has consistently positioned himself as one of Europe's most outspoken liberal leaders. He's criticized U.S. immigration policies, condemned Israel's military campaign in Gaza as a so called genocide, and even moved to recognize a Palestinian state. His leftist government has repeatedly clashed with Washington. And this latest move fits a broader pattern of friction with the Trump administration. So it's not all that surprising. As a result, Israel's Foreign Minister, Gideon Saar accused Madrid of aligning itself with hostile regimes. And shortly after came President Trump's response from the Oval Office. Trump made his frustration clear. He told reporters, quote, spain has been terrible. The President added that he had instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Besant to, quote, cut off all trade with Spain, declaring, quote, we don't want anything to do with Spain, end quote. Trump went on to cite Madrid's refusal to increase NATO defense spending and its opposition to the use of its bases as evidence that some allies are not carrying their weight in the NATO alliance. Now, the President wasn't done either. He went on to signal that Washington would not be constrained. Trump added, quote, we can use their base if we want. We can just fly in and use it. Nobody's going to tell us not to use it, end quote. And, well, Spain wasn't alone in attracting President Trump's fury. Trump shifted his attention to another NATO ally, saying, quote, spain has been very, very uncooperative and so has the United Kingdom, end quote. Well, this week, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the UK would not jo offensive air operations against Iran despite the country participating in defensive coordination in the region. Trump then said, quote, this is not Winston Churchill, referring to Starmer's lack of wartime resolve and leadership. Taken together, the disputes, well, they exposed divisions within NATO at a moment of heightened confrontation, of course, with the Iranian regime. Alright, I want to turn now to another conflict because while much of the world is obviously focused on the war between US and Israel and Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan are nearly a week into their most serious cross border fighting in years. Both Kabul and Islamabad say they're targeting military positions along their shared 1600 mile frontier. Military officials in both capitals insist the intensity has dipped slightly compared to the war's opening days. But there's no indication that either military is preparing to stand down. Now. You may remember our coverage here on the PDB from last week when the fighting first began. Afghanistan's Taliban rulers launched what they described as retaliatory strikes on Pakistani military installations. The Taliban said they were responding to Pakistani air raids targeting alleged militant hideouts inside Afghanistan. Islamabad argues those militants belong to Tariq E. Taliban, Pakistan, what's known as the tpp. It's a terror group responsible for deadly attacks on Pakistani security forces. Pakistan claims that Afghanistan is acting as a safe haven for the TPP following the Afghan retaliatory strikes. Well, the conflict escalated. Pakistani officials say they carried out more than 50 airstrikes on Afghan military targets over the past week. And Islamabad has described this campaign as a, quote, open war against the Taliban government. On the other side, Afghan authorities deny harboring TPP fighters despite repeated reporting from the UN and independent monitors indicating the terror group maintains a presence inside Afghanistan. That dispute over whether Afghan territory is being used to stage attacks inside Pakistan, well, that's the core issue driving this war and that's the framing that sets the stage for the most symbolic strike yet between the two rivals. According to the New York Times, Pakistani aircraft hit Bagram Air Base, which as many of you may know is the former nerve center of the 20 year US war in Afghanistan and one of the most recognizable military sites in the country. So for the Taliban government, Bagram Air Base is a crown jewel. Satellite imagery shows at least one aircraft hangar and two large warehouses flattened in the northern section of the base. It's unclear what was being stored in those warehouses. It's worth noting that Afghan officials initially said Pakistani jets were repelled by Russian made anti aircraft guns. But later officials acknowledged these strikes had in fact hit the base. That's not much of an advertisement for Russian air defense systems. That was a decisive moment, though, in this current conflict. Pakistan targeting a prized Taliban controlled installation, not just a remote military outpost. The fighting has remained steady ever since. Kabul's Defense Ministry spokesman claims Afghan forces killed more than 100 Pakistani personnel and seized more than 25 military posts since last week. Pakistan, meanwhile, says its forces killed about 430 Afghan troops, destroyed nearly 190 posts, and struck over 50 locations from the air, including ammunitions depots in Jalalabad. Adding to that tally, Islamabad's information minister claims Pakistani forces destroyed Afghan tanks, armored vehicles and artillery guns. It's important to note that the casualty numbers and claims of operational success have not been verified for either side. For now, diplomatic off ramps are limited, Qatar offered to mediate. Yet airstrikes continue and ground operations persist. And neither capital is signaling that it's ready to stand down. All right, coming up next in the back of the brief, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corino Machado is gearing up to return to Caracas within weeks to help push for elections. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, whether you're in a one or a two income household, if you're a breadwinner, you are carrying a lot of responsibility. You know that we're talking mortgage payments, tuition, everyday bills that don't just disappear should something happen to you or your partner. But thinking about it, thinking about the, the what ifs in life, well, that can be overwhelming. 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Back of the Brief, we're taking a break from the Middle east for an update on the situation in Venezuela where opposition leader Maria Karina Machado says she plans to return to the country in the coming weeks. Machado made the announcement in a video message declaring that Venezuela's, quote, transition to democracy is unstoppable. Now that's strong language, especially in a country where transitions have been promised before and never quite materialized. Still, her return would mark a significant moment. She spent the past few months abroad after emerging from hiding late last year when she slipped out of the country to get to Oslo, where she accepted the Nobel Peace Prize. Since then, she's positioned herself as the symbolic face of the opposition movement. Now, let's, let's rewind just a bit. Machado won the opposition primary ahead of Venezuela's 2024 presidential election, but was barred from running by the Maduro regime. Maduro ultimately claimed the third term, of course, in a vote widely criticized by international observers as neither free nor fair. An opposition figure did step in to replace her on the ballot, but the regime, of course, claimed victory despite evidence to the contrary, and retained control of the country, the courts, the military and the security services. Now Maduro is gone, as we know. But as we know, the system he built hasn't just evaporated. Acting President Delsey Rodriguez, a longtime Maduro ally, remains in place, and key regime loyalists still control the levers of power. Now, that's important context, because while Machado's return may energize supporters, it doesn't automatically shift the balance of power on the ground. There's also the international angle. Machado has openly courted support from President Trump and other U.S. officials, arguing that sustained pressure political, economic, incredible force was necessary to move the regime. At the same time, there are signs of friction, with some in Washington reportedly frustrated by her lack of institutional support inside Venezuela. So here's the real question. Is this the beginning of a genuine political transition, or is Bachado returning to a system that remains fundamentally intact? Transitions within dictatorships and authoritarian governments don't just happen because someone declares them inevitable. They happen when power structures fracture, when security forces shift alliances, when elites defect, when economic pressure becomes unsustainable. Machado appears to believe that that moment is approaching. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Wednesday 4th March. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbhefirsttv. Com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.