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The President's Daily Brief
March 5th, 2026: Desperate Tehran Seeks Ceasefire & U.S. Opens New Front Against Cartels
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It's Thursday, the 5th of March. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Iran may be looking for a way out. Reports say Iranian intelligence quietly reached out to the CIA to discuss ending the war. But is the White House answering the call? I'll have the details later in the show. An update on the chaotic situation in the Strait of Hormuz as the White House considers deploying US Naval escorts to protect oil tankers moving through that critical shipping lane. Plus, the US Opens a new front in the fight against drug traffickers, launching joint military operations in Ecuador, targeting groups now labeled as terrorist organizations. And in today's Back of the Brief, Washington turns up the pressure on Venezuela as the Trump administration reportedly prepares a criminal indictment against the country's new interim leader, Delsey Rodriguez. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. We're starting off with a development that could speak volumes about the trajectory of the war. According to reporting from the New York Times, Iranian intelligence operatives quietly reached out to the Central Intelligence Agency to explore possible discussions about ending the conflict between Iran and Israel and the U.S. the message was reportedly passed indirectly through the intelligence service of a third country. Now, that's a common way adversaries communicate during wartime, when formal diplomatic channels are either frozen or politically impossible. At this stage, U.S. officials say the approach does not appear to represent a serious negotiation effort. Instead, they describe it as more of a tentative probe, an attempt to test whether Washington might be open to discussions about an off ramp from the conflict. And for right now, at least, the answer from the White House appears to be a firm no. Iranian state media has denied the report, though, and dismissed it as psychological warfare. They're saying it never happened. But public denials like that are fairly common in situations involving intelligence back channels, particularly while a conflict is still actively underway. What makes the reported outreach notable is the timing. It comes as Iran's leadership structure is under extraordinary pressure. In recent days, Israeli and American strikes have targeted senior commanders, security officials, and elements of the regime's governing apparatus. This has all left the regime, of course, scrambling to stabilize its leadership. And in that chaotic environment, even identifying who can speak on behalf of the Iranian regime has become increasingly complicated. And that raises a broader strategic question. Military campaigns that focus on decapitating leadership can weaken an adversary's ability to coordinate a response. But they can also create a different problem, one where it becomes difficult to identify a counterpart capable of negotiating or enforcing a ceasefire. In other words. The harder the campaign hits Iran's leadership, the harder it may become to find someone who can actually deliver on any potential agreement. Even if Tehran's security establishment decided that it wanted a pause in the fighting, it is far from clear that any surviving authority could enforce that decision. Across Iran's complex network of power centers, which includes its regular military, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, of course, intelligence services, and various political and clerical institutions, there's also the question of what the US Would demand in return, should there be any sort of discussion. According to officials familiar with the talks, Washington would likely insist that any halt to the bombing campaign includes sweeping concessions from Tehran, including major limits on its ballistic missile program, significant curbs on its nuclear activities, and an end to its support for proxy groups such as Hezbollah. For now, the reported outreach appears to have changed little in Washington's immediate calculus. US And Israeli operations against Iranian military infrastructure continue, and the broader trajectory of the war remains uncertain. Meanwhile, we're seeing a shift in the targets that Israel is striking inside Iran. According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal, Israeli airstrikes in recent have increasingly focused not just on military infrastructure but on the institutions that make up Iran's internal security apparatus, the machinery that the regime relies on to control its own population. Those strikes have hit a number of organizations responsible for suppressing protests and maintaining the Islamic Republic's grip on power. Among the targets, members of the Basij paramilitary force, senior intelligence officials, and units tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that oversee internal security. One of the most notable strikes targeted the IRGC's Tharala headquarters. That's a key command center responsible for coordinating protest suppression in Tehran during periods of unrest. Israeli aircraft also struck the headquarters of Iran's Police Special Units Command, known as Faraja, which handles riot control and civil unrest. Iran later confirmed that the intelligence chief of that organization was killed in the attack. The strikes have also extended into Iran's western Kurdish regions, long considered anti regime strongholds, where police stations and detention facilities linked to the intelligence services have reportedly been hit. Taken together, the apparent goal is to weaken the regime's police state from the air, clearing space, at least in theory, for unrest on the ground. But analysts caution that strategy may face serious limits. Authoritarian systems like Iran's have proven resilient in the past, and even after the recent strikes, the regime still maintains a near monopoly on weapons across most of the country, with Basij militias continuing to patrol the streets for now, whether airstrikes alone can create the conditions for a popular revolt, that remains an open question. And speaking of the Kurdish regions. A quick follow on to a story from yesterday's PDB afternoon Bulletin. Yesterday we discussed the CIA reportedly working to arm Kurdish fighters located along the Iran Iraq border in the western frontier. Now, according to early reports, hundreds of Kurdish fighters have begun an incursion into Iran from areas near the Iraqi border. We'll have further details on this development as we go along. But it's worth noting that this is a particularly complicated situation. There are several different Kurdish militias, some that are designated by the US as foreign terrorist organizations. Any involvement by Kurdish forces could have also the unwelcome result of drawing Turkey into the mix. As noted yesterday, Turkey has been engaged in a decades long conflict with particular Kurdish factions, most notably the pkk. As mentioned, this story does bear close monitoring. All right, before we go to break, I also want to update you on a story we brought you yesterday when we reported that Mujtab Al Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader, had been selected as Iran's next leader. Now, that information came from Iran International, that's a Persian language outlet based outside of Iran that often relies on sources inside the. They have broken a number of major stories over the years. But in a system as opaque as Iran's and in an environment as fluid and chaotic as Iran is right now, even well sourced reports can sometimes get ahead of themselves. The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday afternoon that Iran's clerical leadership has not yet finalized their decision. According to Iranian state news agency irna, a member of the assembly of Experts said the body will meet as soon as possible to select the next supreme leader, but that further consultations are still required. That said, most major outlets, including the New York Times and Reuters and the Associated Press, still report that Mojtaba Khamenei remains the most likely successor. We'll keep watching the story and bring you any updates as they develop. Coming up next, chaos in the Strait of Hormuz as the White House considers providing naval escorts for oil tankers. Plus, the US Opens a new front in the war against drug traffickers with military operations in Ecuador. I'll be right back. 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Welcome back to the pdb. I want to give you an update on what's unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. As Iranian threats and attacks rattle shipping in one of the world's most critical energy corridors, President Trump has announced that the US Will step in with naval escorts and political risk insurance for tankers sail the strategic passageway. The Strait of Hormuz sits between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula and as we've discussed, carries roughly 20% of global seaborne oil shipments. As you know, any sustained disruption there quickly impacts global energy markets. And that is exactly why this corridor has become another front in the conflict. The strait has long been one of Tehran's preferred pressure points, and in recent days, the regime has begun turning those threats into action. As we've previously discussed, several commercial vessels have been attacked around the waterway. One ship caught fire after being struck by an unknown projectile, and another was attacked near Oman, forcing its crew to evacuate. At the same time, Tehran has tried to project control over the corridor itself. The regime claimed the strait is closed and warned that any vessel attempting to transit would be set ablaze. Now, U.S. officials say that claim is simply not true. The waterway remains open, but traffic has thinned as some operations operators avoid the passage, worried about exactly the kind of attacks that we have seen unfold. And that's the environment that Trump is now responding to. The president announced in a post on Truth Social that he ordered the United States International Development Finance Corporation to provide political risk insurance and financial guarantees for maritime trade moving through the Gulf. Trump wrote that, quote, effective immediately, the program will offer political risk insurance for shipping companies in the region. He added that the Navy could even begin escorting tankers through the strait if necessary to ensure what he described as the, quote, free flow of energy to the world. The move is seen as a bid to cool energy prices after oil prices surged more than $10 per barrel in the days following the joint US Israeli strikes on Iran. And the market reaction has been visible on the shipping side as well. Insurance companies have begun raising premiums for vessels operating in the area and in some cases canceling coverage altogether, prompting tanker operators to avoid the route. Inside the Trump administration officials say the White House is closely watching the economic fallout from the military campaign against Iran. One person familiar with the discussions told Politico that access to the strait is especially critical for energy exports from Gulf producers such as allies Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Simultaneously, the widening conflict has begun hitting energy infrastructure across the region. Qatar has temporarily shut down a major natural gas export facility. And Saudi fuel refineries have come under attack. As we've been tracking, the US military says it has already sunk 11 Iranian vessels since the start of joint operations with Israel. American officials believe future naval operations may focus less on ship to ship confrontations and more on intercepting Iranian missiles or drones aimed at civilian shipping. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the administration would roll out additional measures to address rising energy prices triggered by the conflic, but kept details limited. He also said the US Intends to eliminate Iran's naval threat in the region as part of the sustained effort to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Okay, well, while it may seem that all eyes are currently focused on the Middle East, I do want to turn now to South America, where a new front in the Trump administration's counternarcotics campaign is opening. The US And Ecuador have begun joint operations with American special forces advising Ecuadorian soldiers conducting raids on trafficking infrastructure. I want to highlight a key detail before getting into the specifics of the operations, and it's one that the Pentagon has made very clear. American troops will not be the ones carrying out these raids. U.S. forces are providing planning, support, intelligence, and logistics, while Ecuadorian soldiers will carry out the operational missions. And we're already getting a glimpse of what those missions look like. A 30 second video released by the US Southern Command shows a helicopter lifting off in low light and deploying fighters during what US Military officials say is the opening phase of the operation. The command says that the raids are part of a growing regional effort to confront what it calls the scourge of narco terrorism. To better understand why this partnership matters, you have to look at what's been happening inside Ecuador itself. The South American country has seen a surge in violence tied to powerful drug trafficking organizations moving cocaine through its territory. Criminal networks have increasingly turned Ecuador into a key logistics hub, using its ports and coastal routes to move narcotics toward markets in the US And Europe. And while Ecuador isn't a major producer of cocaine, its location makes it very valuable to traffickers. The country sits between Colombia and Peru, which are the world's two largest cocaine producers, making it an ideal transit corridor for narco terrorist groups that move the gear north and across the Atlantic. That growing threat is exactly why Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa has leaned heavily into security cooperation with Washington. Noboa has prioritized aggressive action against drug gangs as violence tied to trafficking networks has pushed his country to record homicide levels. As our longtime PDB listeners know, the US has been ramping up its own pressure campaign across the region. Since September of 2025, American forces have carried out dozens of strikes against suspected Venezuelan drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, and the coordination between the two countries has been building for months. U.S. southern Command Chief Francis Donovan recently traveled to the Ecuadorian capital of Quito, where he met with Noboa and senior Ecuadorian officials to discuss expanding security cooperation. In a statement after the meeting, Donovan praised Ecuador's armed forces for what he described as their, quote, courage and resolve in confronting narco terrorist networks. Shortly after the meeting, Noboa confirmed that Ecuador was entering what he called a new phase of operations targeting both drug trafficking groups and illegal mining networks. He said the March campaign would involve joint missions with regional partners, including Washington. Now, a few weeks ago, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Kane hosted military leaders from across the Western Hemisphere in Washington to coordinate strategies against transnational criminal organizations that are operating throughout the region. So as narcotics networks expand their reach across Latin America and the Caribbean, the US Again appears willing to deploy military assets alongside regional partners to disrupt traffickers and dismantle the cartels and criminal networks. Okay. Coming up next, in the back of the brief new US Pressure against Caracas, as the Trump administration reportedly prepares a criminal indictment against Venezuela's interim president, Delsey Rodriguez, more on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take a moment of your time to talk about security, specifically your online security and to tell you about Deleteme. Deleteme is a great company out there working to make people safer online. Now, Deleteme makes it easy, quick and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable. Look, it's easier than ever to find personal information about people online. You know, that's. But having your address, your phone number, your family members, information just hanging out on the Internet, well, that can have actual consequences in the real world and can make you vulnerable to all sorts of scams. 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Hey PDB listeners, Mike Baker here with a quick recommendation for your podcast playlist. Look, if you like deep, insightful conversations with world class thinkers and who doesn't come on, check out the Jordan Harbinger Show. It's available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen. Jordan sits down with people who've been in the room at the highest levels, from national security leaders to thinkers reshaping how we understand the world world. You'll hear ideas and stories that go way beyond the usual sound bites. Two episodes I'd recommend an interview with our friend Ryan Macbeth on Venezuela's collapse. That's a clear look at how a once wealthy oil state unraveled and what that means, of course, for regional stability. And also his conversation with Douglas Murray where they explore the pressures facing Western democracies and what those trends mean for long term stability. Download the Jordan Harbinger Show. That's H A R B I N G E R Just like it sounds on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your shows. Or just go to jordanharbinger.com start to dive right in. It's one of those podcasts that makes you smarter, so give it a go. In today's Back of the Brief, we're heading back to Venezuela, where Washington appears to be turning up the pressure on the country's new leadership even as the political transition there remains in flux. According to an exclusive report from Reuters, the Trump administration is weighing criminal charges against Venezuela's acting president. That, of course, would be Delsey Rodriguez, as part of a broader effort to force cooperation from the remnants of the Maduro era power structure. Four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that U.S. prosecutors in Miami have been investigating Rodriguez for years over alleged corruption and money laundering tied to Venezuela's state oil company, Peda Vesa, and are actively readying a draft criminal indictment. The probe has reportedly intensified over the past two months and focuses on financial transactions that took place between roughly 2021 and 2025, when Rodriguez was a senior figure in Nicolas Maduro's government. Now, as our regular listeners know, the looming possibility of an indictment comes at a delicate moment inside Venezuela. Rodriguez, of course, stepped in as Venezuela's acting president following Maduro's capture. But despite friendlier relations with the Trump administration, at least on the surface, the system that Maduro built remains largely intact, with loyalists still embedded across the military, the courts and key government institutions. According to the sources that spoke with Reuters, the Trump administration's play here may be to use the threat of indictment as leverage to start breaking up the entrenched system still loyal to Maduro. And given that the US Captured Maduro and brought him to New York for trial over criminal charges of narco terrorism and cocaine trafficking, while the threat alone would carry serious weight. Despite President Trump's public praise of Rodriguez, the report says US Officials have been pressing her behind the scenes to detain or extradite several high profile figures from the Maduro era, including businessmen and political operators accused of helping move billions of dollars through Venezuela's oil sector. The extradition of such figures would both strengthen the criminal case against Maduro and give Washington even greater leverage over the direction that the post Maduro government takes. Now. There is a twist here. I need to stress that the Justice Department, the U.S. justice Department strongly denied Reuters reporting in a public statement saying that no such decision has been made. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche went so far as to call the Reuters report, quote, completely false and added, quote, not sure how such fake news makes its way to publication. But Reuters quickly responded saying their sources have been vetted and they stand by their reporting that a criminal indictment against Rodriguez is indeed being prepar. Now, if Reuters reporting does prove accurate, it suggests Washington is trying to manage Venezuela's transition with both a carrot and a very large stick, publicly working with Rodriguez to stabilize the country while privately holding the threat of criminal charges over her head. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Thursday 5th March. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me@pdbhfirsttv.com and also if you haven't already, I do hope you'll check out our YouTube channel that's obviously located on YouTube and you just search up at President's Daily Brief. Take a look at it. If you like what you see, I hope you'll hit that subscribe button. I'm Mike Baker. And I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.