The President's Daily Brief — March 9, 2026

Host: Mike Baker, Former CIA Operations Officer
Podcast: The President’s Daily Brief (The First TV)
Episode Theme:
A look at growing instability and power struggles inside Iran’s regime, evidence of Russian intelligence support for Iran’s military operations targeting U.S. assets in the Middle East, and President Trump’s hints at a coming showdown with Cuba’s communist government. Plus, an alarming protest-turned-terror incident in NYC is covered in the "Back of the Brief."

Main Topics and Insights

Cracks Inside Iran’s Regime (00:12–08:00)

• Unprecedented Apology Signals Fractures

  • Iran’s President Massoud Possesskian appeared on state TV with an unexpected apology to Gulf neighbors (including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, and Oman) for Iran’s recent missile and drone attacks. He suggested a halt to future attacks unless provoked and invited diplomacy.
    • Quote:
      “I should apologize to the neighboring countries that were attacked by Iran.” – President Possesskian, quoted by Mike Baker (01:06)
  • Immediately after, Iran’s attacks continued, contradicting his conciliatory message.
  • Hardliners in Iran’s parliament blasted the apology as “humiliating” and accused the president of weakness, with some calling for his removal from the temporary leadership council.
    • Quote:
      “Hardliners in Iran’s parliament immediately condemned the speech… others accused the president of weakness and demanded that the country move quickly to replace the temporary leadership council now running the government.” (02:23)

• Leadership Vacuum & Power Struggle

  • Since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in the early days of the war, Iran is run by a three-man temporary council (the President, Judiciary Chief Mohseni Eji, and Cleric Ayatollah Arafi).
  • The Iranian military, dominated by the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), operates semi-independently and commands more power than civilian or clerical authorities.
    • Baker notes, “It’s very clear that Iran’s military has been operating with little central command…” (04:17)
  • A new Supreme Leader, Mujtaba Khamenei (the late Ayatollah’s son), has reportedly been chosen, mostly for his ties to the IRGC rather than religious credentials—signaling the military’s rising dominance.
    • “He may not be the first choice of the clerics but is tight with the military — an indication of who is now running the show.” (05:28)

• Key Takeaway:
  Iran’s apology and the swift backlash expose deep divisions within its leadership, with the IRGC now asserting itself as the real power. The traditional role of the Supreme Leader as ultimate authority is likely over.

Russia Supplying Iran With Intelligence (08:32–15:50)

• Mounting Evidence of Intelligence Sharing

  • New intelligence (per three officials) reveals Russia is providing Iran with targeting data on U.S. military movements in the Middle East, including warships, aircraft, and installations—an ongoing collaboration, not a brand-new development.
    • “Moscow has begun supplying Tehran with information on the movements of American warships, aircraft and other military assets operating across the Middle East.” (08:50)

• Impact of Russian Support

  • The support appears especially critical as recent U.S. and Israeli strikes degraded Iran’s surveillance capability.
  • The accuracy of recent Iranian strikes, such as on facilities linked to the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh (damaging a CIA station), suggests outside intelligence assistance.
    • “That level of precision targeting requires detailed intelligence.” (10:10)

• Military and Strategic Implications

  • Russia’s space-based surveillance provides Iran with coverage it lacks, helping pinpoint American military targets.
  • Potentially, this signals a “tit for tat” escalation: U.S. intelligence to Ukraine, Russian intelligence to Iran.
    • Quote/Baker’s analysis:
      “One could argue that the U.S. has been providing intel to a sovereign nation that was invaded, while Russia is…providing intel to a nation that has been busy exporting terrorism…for almost five decades.” (12:23)

• U.S. Response

  • Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and President Trump both downplay the effectiveness of Russian involvement, insisting U.S. intelligence is superior and operational precautions are in place.
    • Hegseth:
      “Our commanders are aware of everything. We have the best intelligence in the world.” (13:55)
    • Trump:
      “If they’re getting information, it’s not helping them much.” (14:20)

• Key Takeaway:
  Russian intelligence support marks a deepening Iran-Russia alignment and a potentially pivotal development in the region’s balance of power. The U.S. officially downplays its impact, but the precedent of major-power adversary collaboration is notable.

President Trump’s Warnings on Cuba (15:51–18:38)

• Trump Signals Cuba Could Be Next

  • At the “Shield of the Americas Summit” in Florida, President Trump warned that Cuba’s communist regime may collapse soon, hinting at using the Venezuela playbook.
    • “As we achieve a historic transformation in Venezuela, we’re also looking forward to the great change that will soon be coming to Cuba. Cuba is at the end of the line.” – Trump, quoted by Baker (16:35)
  • Trump tells CNN negotiations may already be underway and names Marco Rubio as his future lead for Cuba talks.
    • “Cuba is going to fall pretty soon. They want to make a deal so badly.” – Trump (17:05)

• Cuban Unrest and Instability

  • Cuba faces rolling blackouts, economic collapse, healthcare crises, widespread protests (echoing the violent 2021 “11J” demonstrations), and over 1,200 political prisoners (per Prisoners Defenders).
    • Baker notes reports that the Cuban state now lacks the resources to repress dissent as before.

• Comparison to Venezuela

  • Trump’s comments hinge on the U.S.-backed ouster of Venezuela’s Maduro in January, suggesting Cuba might soon follow.
    • “I’ve been watching it for 50 years and it’s falling right into my lap.” – Trump (17:48)
  • Baker stresses key differences between the two cases and the uncertainties of the “Venezuela template.”

• Key Takeaway:
  With internal crises mounting, Cuba is under new U.S. scrutiny, and Trump is positioning American policy for a potential post-communist transition.

Back of the Brief: Explosive Protest in NYC (20:39–End)

• Protest Turns Violent at Gracie Mansion

  • A far-right rally led by Jake Lang outside Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s residence (the city’s first Muslim mayor) draws around 20 right-wing protesters and 120 counter-protesters.
  • The situation escalates after pepper spray is allegedly deployed and an 18-year-old counter-protester, Amir Balat, throws a lit device packed with bolts and screws toward police (fortunately, no injuries).
    • “A counter protester was seen lighting a device and throwing it during the clash. Witnesses reported seeing flames and smoke…” (21:18)
  • The FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force joins the investigation; the two explosive devices are confirmed as viable and packed for maximum harm.
  • Six arrests made; authorities probe possible ISIS inspiration for the attackers.

• Key Takeaway:
  The tense protest and attempted bombing highlight rising political conflict and extremism in U.S. cities, as well as the quick federal response to suspected terror tactics.

Notable Quotes and Moments

• “On the surface, that may sound like a sign that Tehran is looking for an off ramp from the conflict. But the reality is more complicated.” – Mike Baker (01:49)
• “Frankly, there were only two of them. [Supreme Leaders]…literally, they were the supreme leaders. There are indications those days are ending…” – Mike Baker (06:00)
• “If that reporting proves accurate, it could represent… the first time since the conflict began that a major American adversary has directly assisted Iran’s military operations.” – Mike Baker (09:17)
• Trump: “Cuba is at the end of the line.” (16:35)
• “The Cuban regime is existing on fumes with an increasingly angry population, dire economic conditions, and growing pressure from a US Administration keen for change.” – Mike Baker (18:12)

Important Timestamps

• 00:12–08:00: Iran’s leadership cracks; President’s apology and reversal; IRGC’s real power; leadership succession.
• 08:32–15:50: Russia’s intelligence support for Iran; impacts and U.S. response.
• 15:51–18:38: Trump on Cuba’s impending crisis and the U.S. vision for regime change.
• 20:39–End: “Back of the Brief” – Violent protest and explosive device incident at NYC mayor’s residence.

Tone and Style:
Mike Baker employs a direct, sharp tone, mixing intelligence analysis with wry asides and matter-of-fact delivery. He regularly synthesizes open source reporting, classified-style briefings, and his own background context for listeners.

This episode illuminates new schisms at the heart of the Iranian regime, increased Iran-Russia military intelligence coordination against U.S. forces, and a bold U.S. policy stance toward a potentially faltering Cuba. The show closes with a stark reminder of domestic volatility and terrorism risks, set against the backdrop of global upheaval.