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The President's Daily Brief
May 13th, 2026: Iranian Commandos Captured In Kuwait & Ukraine’s New Drone Alliance
00:26:08
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It's Wednesday, the 13th of May. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, Iran is accused of sending Revolutionary Guard Corps commandos into Kuwait during the fragile Gulf ceasef. Are we still calling it a ceasefire? Raising fears that the region's shadow war is still escalating behind the scenes. Later in the show, the war with Iran is reportedly accelerating US Ukraine defense cooperation, with both countries now pursuing a landmark drone and air defense agreement. Well, that only took four years. Plus, as Ukraine's own defense industries develop and Kyiv becomes more reliant on the EU than the US for military support, President Zelensky is becoming more public in displaying Ukraine's frustrations with the Trump administration. And in today's back of the brief, North Korea's support for Russia's war effort is reportedly fueling the Hermit Kingdom's biggest economic growth surge in nearly a decade. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Kuwait is accusing Iran of carrying out a covert Revolutionary Guard Corps, or irgc, infiltration operation during what is supposed to be a regional ceasefire, a sign that while open warfare may have paused, the regime's shadow war appears to be continuing in the background. According to Kuwaiti officials, members of Iran's IRGC attempted to infiltrate Bubian island earlier this month aboard what authorities described as a fishing vessel to conduct hostile operations inside Kuwaiti territory. Kuwaiti security forces say they intercepted the group after they landed on the island, triggering a confrontation that left one Kuwaiti service member wounded. Four suspects were captured, while two others reportedly escaped. During the clash. Kuwaiti authorities publicly identified the suspects as officers in Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including colonels, a captain and a first lieutenant, suggesting obviously that this was a deliberate state directed operation rather than some freelance smuggling mission gone wrong. As of now, Iran has not publicly responded to the accusations. Now, what makes this story especially significant is the location. Bubian island is Kuwait's largest island, positioned near the northern edge of the Persian Gulf, close to both Iraq and Iran. But more importantly, the island is home to the Mubarak Al Kabir port project. It's a massive Chinese backed infrastructure development project and it's tied to Beijing's broader efforts to expand trade and influence across the Middle East. The island sits near critical shipping lanes, oil infrastructure, military facilities, and one of the most strategically sensitive corners of the Gulf. The accusations surfaced just before President Trump's planned summit this Thursday with Chinese President Xi Jinping, where the growing crisis in the Gulf and the economic shockwaves tied to instability in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to dominate discussions. China remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy supplies and has continued purchasing Iranian oil despite sanctions pressure from Washington. At the same time, Beijing has invested heavily across the Gulf, including in Kuwait's port infrastructure projects. So if Iran targeted an island tied directly to Chinese investment interests, Tehran may have been signaling that no country's economic footprint in the Gulf is truly insulated from the conflict. As we've highlighted here on the pdb, during the broader Iran conflict, Gulf nations including Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE all reported attacks tied to Iranian drones or missiles. Kuwait specifically has accused Iran of involvement in strikes targeting critical infrastructure, including oil facilities, power stations, and desalination plants. Now, that last point is particularly important. Kuwait and much of the Gulf depends heavily on desalinated water supplies. Sustained attacks against those systems would not just damage infrastructure, they could rapidly create humanitarian and economic crises. Kuwait also says it recently intercepted multiple hostile drones inside its airspace, adding to concerns that Iran may still be conducting asymmetric operations despite the ceasefire technically remaining in place. Look, again, we've either got to agree on a new definition for the word ceasefire or come up with another term for whatever this current situation is. In another major development this week, the US Ambassador to Israel confirmed that Israel deployed Iron Dome air defense systems and Israeli personnel to the United Arab Emirates during the conflict. And that is an extraordinary milestone. For years, Gulf Arab states quietly expanded security cooperation with Israel behind the scenes due to shared fears of about Iran. But an openly acknowledged Israeli military deployment inside the UAE that represents one of the clearest public signs yet of how dramatically the region's security landscape has shifted. And it underscores a broader reality now taking shape across the Middle East. The ceasefire may have paused the open fighting, but the war clearly hasn't stopped. From attacks on shipping lanes and energy infrastructure to alleged covert infiltrations of strategic islands, the broader confrontation with Iran increasingly appears to be moving into a murkier and more dangerous phase. One where sabotage, proxy attacks, drones, and covert operations continue, even while diplomats publicly insist that they have a ceasefire and negotiations are ongoing. Well, as Emily Dickinson said, hope is the thing with feathers. All right, coming up next, the war with Iran is reportedly accelerating. A major new U.S. ukraine drone defense partnership, even as Keev's frustrations with the Trump administration become more visible. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, I want to tell you about a man that you may have heard about, but certainly everyone should know about. His name is Jimmy Lai. La I Jimmy Lai. Now he's a 78 year old British citizen. It's a father, his grandfather. And he has spent over five years in solitary confinement in a Hong Kong maximum security prison. And the reason he's in prison is fairly simple. When the Chinese Communist Party cracked down on Hong Kong a decade ago, Jimmy refused to roll over. After escaping Communist China as a boy, Jimmy Lai became a successful entrepreneur. Inspired by the Tiananmen Square protesters, he launched Apple Daily as a newspaper dedicated to freedom. This, of course, well, that put him directly in the CCP's crosshairs. Jimmy joined the pro democracy protests, becoming a global symbol for the rule of law. Now, earlier this year, Jimmy Lai was sentenced to an additional 20 years in prison. On top of those five years, at his age in failing health, that is effectively a life sentence. Now President Trump is calling for Jimmy's release. And to learn more, just visit supportjimmilai.com again, that's supportjimmielai.com or learn about his story and tell others. And if you care about democracy and the rule of law, well, help free Jimmy Lai before it's too late.
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welcome back to the PDB. For the first years of Putin's war, Ukraine came to Washington often asking for weapons and financial support to keep its war effort alive. US Support was critical in those early days, and it was very much a one way transaction. But that dynamic appears to be shifting as Washington and Kyiv move toward a partnership now that could bring Ukrainian drone technology and experience into the American defense industry. That partnership is beginning to take shape. Formally. Washington and Kyiv have drafted a memorandum outlining the framework for a potential agreement. Three sources familiar with the matter have reported on that. And when you look at what's unfolded over the last several months, it's not hard to see why this is happening now. After more than four years of grinding war against Russia, Ukraine has become one of the most experienced drone warfare practitioners on the planet. We're talking about a country that has spent years adapting in real time against Iranian designed shahed drones, GPS jamming techniques, and constant battlefield Attrition necessity forced Ukraine to innovate fast, and Kyiv is trying to turn those wartime lessons into long term strategic leverage. Then the Iran conflict unfolded, and suddenly many countries began looking at Ukraine very differently. During the fighting, Ukrainian drone specialists and interceptor technology were deployed to help American allies defend against the same shahed drones that Russia has spent years launching at Ukrainian cities, the sources say. The draft memorandum was reportedly worked out between the State Department and Ukraine's ambassador to Washington, marking an early but important step toward deeper defense integration between the two. And aside from the US Kyiv has been moving aggressively elsewhere to capitalize on the moment. Over the past several months, Ukraine signed drone and defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the uae, as well as several European countries, while also expanding defense cooperation with Azerbaijan. Ukrainian President zelensky says nearly 20 countries are now involved in various stages of Ukraine's growing drone initiative. Zelensky, in a post on Telegram, wrote, the countries are currently involved at various stages. Four agreements have already been signed, and the first contracts under these agreements are now being prepared. And interestingly enough, Ukrainian officials first pitched expanded drone cooperation to the White House way back in August of 2025 after President Trump praised Operation Spiderweb privately. For those of you who may have forgotten, the operation involved Ukrainian pilots remotely guiding explosive drones launched from trucks covertly smuggled deep into Russia to strike Russian warplanes sitting on airfields beyond the front lines. Cheap drones, long distances, high value targets. That's exactly the kind of asymmetric warfare that military planners around the world are now factoring into their own playbooks. Because while the Pentagon still overwhelmingly dominates in high end military hardware, Ukraine has become exceptionally effective at building cheap, scalable systems designed for prolonged attritional warfare. The proposed partnership, of course, can benefit both sides. American financing would help Ukraine massively expand defense production capacity, while at the same time giving Washington greater access to rapidly deployable battlefield systems. But despite all of this momentum, there are still clear political roadblocks inside Washington. Ukrainian officials told CBS News they sensed a, quote, lack of buy in from senior figures inside the Pentagon, in the White House, particularly after the Iran conflict began. And Trump has continued projecting confidence, telling Fox News in March, we don't need Ukraine's help in drone defense. We know more about drones than anybody, end quote. Well, whether that is true or not, politically, that boast makes sense from Trump's perspective. His messaging is consistently centered around restoring American industrial dominance and reducing reliance on foreign systems. So there's naturally going to be hesitation inside parts of Washington about appearing dependent on Ukrainian technology Still, the fact that Washington and Kyiv have now drafted a memorandum suggests that at least some of that hesitation may be overcome. And frankly, this potential partnership may ultimately become one of the more consequential long term shifts to emerge from the war in Ukraine in how Washington prepares for the new era of warfare. Now, I want to stay on the topic of Ukraine for a moment because despite Washington and Kyiv inching toward a potential defense partnership, the political tensions between Zelenskyy and the Trump administration are playing out in public now. For much of the past four years, the US Was obviously Ukraine's most important ally, and Kyiv went to extraordinary lengths to avoid even slightly challenging Washington out of fear that any rupture could threaten the military, financial and intelligence support keeping the war effort afloat. But that dynamic appears to be changing, and that change has been developing over time. After President Trump returned to office, the relationship between Washington and Kyiv began to change almost immediately. Here on the pdb, we saw American military assistance slow, dramatically, peace negotiations stall, and the administration's strategic attention increasingly shift toward, well, at the time, Venezuela, and now, of course, the Middle east and the conflict with Iran. From Kyiv's perspective, there's a growing sense that Ukraine is no longer sitting at the center of Washington's foreign policy priorities the way that it once did. And that frustration has become increasingly public. Zelensky has complained that Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have had no time for Ukraine since the Iran war began. Well, and as we've noted here on the pdb, apparently the US Only has two envoys, and I really thought our envoy bench was deeper. Zelensky also criticized the White House's initial decision to ease sanctions on Russian oil in an effort to stabilize oil prices and, of course, limit gas prices at the pumps ahead of the midterm elections. He later criticized Washington's decision to extend those sanctions exemptions tied to Russian oil sales, arguing that that move gave the Kremlin a sense of impunity. And Zelenskyy has increasingly accused the Trump administration of putting more pressure on Kyiv than Moscow during negotiations. Despite the fact that it's Putin's war, it's Russia that invaded Ukraine. Now, right away, two things stand out here. First, it's the tone, because again, this is not how Ukraine behaved for most of the war. For years, Kyiv was extraordinarily careful when it came to Trump and his administration. Ukrainian officials understood the reality that their war effort depended heavily on American weapons, intelligence, financial assistance, and diplomatic backing. So even when tensions existed privately, Ukraine largely kept those frustrations behind closed doors. Ukrainian officials feared that if the relationship were completely fractured, Washington could further reduce support for the war effort or shift America's diplomatic posture in favor of Russia. But now that restraint appears to be fading. The second thing that stands out is confidence. Because increasingly, Ukraine appears to believe it can sustain this war with far less reliance on Washington than at any previous point since Russia's full scale invasion began. That realization deepened after repeated setbacks in the relationship, including the 2025 fiery White House confrontation between Trump and Zelenskyy, the collapse of peace negotiations, and Washington's decision to extend sanctions waivers tied to the Russian oil exports. At the same time, Kyiv has spent years preparing for this possibility. As I previously discussed on the pdb, Ukraine massively expanded its domestic defense production throughout the war, particularly in drone warfare. And that fundamentally changes Ukraine's leverage. The more militarily self sufficient Kyiv becomes, the less politically constrained Zelenskyy appears to feel when dealing with washing. At the same time, Russia's battlefield advances have largely stalled, giving Ukrainian leadership greater confidence that the war remains sustainable, even as American support becomes less certain. We're now seeing Ukraine behave differently because of that. Increasingly, Kyiv no longer appears willing to act like a subordinate wartime partner, and we're seeing the country's officials behave differently. And Europe is finally shoulding much more of the financial burden. Amid Kyiv's boldness, the EU has overtaken the US as the largest financial backer of Ukraine's war effort, including a massive $106 billion military focused loan package designed to help sustain the war. Even with all of that, there's still one major caveat here. Ukraine can expand and they have drone production. Europe can increase funding and they have, and Kyiv can diversify partnerships, and they have done that. But American intelligence support remains extraordinarily difficult to replace, even with stepped up assistance from EU partners. So this is not and will not be a clean break between Washington and Kyiv. The US and Ukraine will continue to have strategic reasons for an alliance, but we are seeing a more confident Ukraine, one not afraid to express their opinions to a US Administration that no longer seems interested in shouldering the responsibility of being Ukraine's primary benefactor. All right, up next in the back of the brief, Pyongyang is reportedly cashing in on Russia's war with North Korea, earning billions through weapons shipments and troop deployments to Ukraine. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for gun owners about home safety, security and being prepared. 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In today's Back of the Brief New reporting suggests North Korea may now be earning nearly half of its overall economic growth from helping Russia wage war in Ukraine. It's a sign that Moscow's invasion is not only reshaping Europe but also breathing new life into one of the world's most isolated and heavily sanctioned regimes. According to reports citing South Korean intelligence assessments, North Korea has earned as much as $14 billion over the past three years by supplying Russia with weapons, ammunition, ballistic missiles and even troops. Analysts say that roughly 10,000 North Korean special Forces troops are already operating near the front lines in Ukraine alongside engineers and drone operators, with another 30,000 soldiers potentially headed to the battlefield in the months ahead. The weapon shipments have reportedly included KN23 ballistic missiles, artillery shells and multiple launch rocket systems, all desperately needed by Moscow as the grinding war continues to consume men and materiel at staggering rates. In return, Pyongyang is reportedly receiving cash, food, energy supplies, and perhaps most importantly and most concerning, military technology. And that's where the story, of course, becomes especially interesting. For years, international sanctions were designed to isolate North Korea and slow the development of their nuclear and missile programs. But analysts now warn that Russia's growing dependence on North Korean support may be effectively dismantling that pressure campaign in real time. Some reports suggest Moscow is already helping Pyongyang improve drone technology, missile systems and submarine capabilities, raising fears that the war in Ukraine could ultimately leave North Korea militarily stronger than before the conflict began. Economically, the impact inside North Korea appears to be fairly significant. According to South Korea's central bank, the bank of Korea, North Korea's economy grew by 3.7% in 2024. That's the country's strongest growth in eight years. Witnesses cited in regional reporting say signs of new wealth are already appearing in Pyongyang, where expensive cars have reportedly become far more common on city streets over this year. Of course, that prosperity comes with a heavy human cost. South Korean intelligence estimates that roughly 6,000 North Korean troops have already been killed or wounded fighting for Putin. But for some families inside the impoverished dictatorship, the regime's compensation payments and promises of housing may represent opportunities that they could never otherwise have. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Wednesday, 13 May. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me at PDB@the FIRSTTV.com I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.