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The President's Daily Brief
May 1st, 2026: IRAN IN “DEATH SPIRAL”: Economy Crumbling Fast & A Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire?
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It's Friday, the 1st of May. Well known in many parts of the world is May Day, celebrated in some places as International Workers Day, of course, and in other countries, it's the traditional spring festival, an original pagan holiday. How about that? So get out there and dance around the Maypole or, well, however you celebrate. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, new signs that Iran's economy is entering what some analysts are calling a, quote, death spiral, with soaring inflation, mass unemployment, and growing pressure on the regime. Later in the show, Trump and Putin float a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine, even as Kyiv strikes deep into Russian territory. Plus, as war intensifies in Mali, analysts warn jihadist groups could be on the verge of carving out an African caliphate. And in today's back of the brief, the Pentagon officially estimates the cost of the Iran conflict to date. And trust me, it's a lot of fat stacks, about $25 billion worth. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Iran's economy is beginning what some analysts are calling a, quote, death spiral, and the pressure is coming from all sides. According to new reporting from Wall Street Journal, the combination of war, a US Naval blockade, and internal dysfunction is pushing Iran into one of the most severe economic crises it's faced in decades. More than 1 million people are now out of work directly, with another million impacted indirectly. At the same time, inflation has surged to roughly 67%. That's 6, 706 7. And the country's currency has collapsed to around 1.8 million rialts to the dollar. By way of comparison, the exchange rate at the end of 2024 was approximately 820,000 rialts to the dollar. By the end of 2025, it was approximately 1.4 million riyals to the dollar. And now, a few months later, it's 1.8 million to purchase $1. But those numbers are only telling part of the story. On the ground, daily life is becoming increasingly difficult. Food prices are soaring. Basic goods are becoming harder to find, and entire sectors of the economy are grinding to a halt. Businesses from manufacturers to small retailers are shutting down as supply chains break and raw materials disappear. The prolonged Internet shutdown, a regime tactic meant to suppress internal dissent, has only made things worse, cutting off millions from online work and commerce. And in some cases, the situation is becoming almost, well, surreal. Reports out of Tehran suggest that even staple items are slipping out of reach for ordinary citizens. Meat prices have climbed beyond what many families can afford. While some households are being forced to cut back to one meal a day, medicine shortages are also becoming a growing concern, with some patients unable to access essential treatments as prices spike. What's notable here is not just the scale of the crisis, but the tone. Even Iranian state media, which rarely breaks from the official line, has begun sounding the alarm. In a recent broadcast, a state television anchor openly questioned government leadership, asking, quote, what is going on in this country? That kind of direct criticism is unusual and suggests that the strain is becoming impossible to ignore. At the center of all of this is a high stakes standoff. The US Continues to bet that sustained economic pressure, especially through the ongoing blockade of Iranian ports, will force Tehran to make concessions. Iran, meanwhile, is betting the opposite, that Washington will eventually back off to stabilize global markets and bring down energy prices, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. And that's the key leverage point, of course. Before the war, much of Iran's economy depended on oil exports moving through the strait. Now, with the waterway effectively closed and US Naval forces enforcing a blockade, that revenue stream has been choked off. There's little evidence that Iran has been able to bypass those restrictions in any meaningful way. In response, the Iranian government is trying to contain the fallout. Officials have raised wages, expanded subsidies, and rolled out cash assistance programs. There are even reports of plans to allow some citizens to purchase essential goods on credit. But these are temporary fixes, and many economists say they're not nearly enough to offset the scale of the disruption. And that brings us to the bigger picture. None of this means that Iran's economy is going to collapse overnight. This is still an authoritarian system with a lot of tools to manage unrest and to enforce stability, as they've shown in the past, with their ability to repress protests with extreme violence if necessary, of course. And historically, Iran has shown a high tolerance for economic pain. But the trajectory is clear. As government revenues dry up and living conditions deteriorate, the risk for the regime isn't just economic, it's political. Iran has already seen waves of unrest tied to inflation and economic hardship in recent years. And if conditions continue to worsen, the regime could find itself facing renewed internal pressure at the same time that it's locked in an external conflict. So the question that everybody is asking is, well, who blinks first? And in the meantime, well, in the meantime, it's the Iranian people who are paying the price. All right, coming up next, Trump and Putin float a Ukraine ceasefire as Kyiv strikes. Deep inside Russia and in Mali, jihadist territorial gains raise fears that of an Emerging African caliphate. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for every taxpayer out there. Now, you know we just finished tax season, right? But of course. Well, there's always next year. It never really ends, does it? 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Welcome Back to the PDD. Well, we now know what came out of the 90 minute call between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. A ceasefire proposal in Ukraine. But it's not exactly a breakthrough if you just listen to the headlines. Perhaps it does sound like a major leap in progress, as if diplomacy is finally moving in the right direction. But once you start looking at the details, it becomes clear this isn't a real pathway to peace. It's a tightly framed pause with a very specific purpose. During Wednesday's call, which was the 12th between the two leaders since Trump returned to office, the focus turned to a temporary ceasefire timed around Russia's Victory day celebrations on 9 May. Of course, those celebrations commemorate the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. And according to Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushukov, Putin signaled that he'd be prepared to halt combat for the duration of the holiday. Trump backed it Publicly saying, quote, I suggested a little bit of a ceasefire. There's so many people being killed, end quote. Ushakov never explicitly said who actually initiated the idea, only that Putin expressed, quote, readiness and that Trump supported it. And this possible pause again is tied to one of the most symbolic holidays in Russia, Victory Day. As mentioned in yesterday's pdb, for the first time in nearly two decades, Moscow is scaling back its Victory Day parade. It's a departure from a decades long tradition meant to project military might and global reach. There'll be fewer tanks on display this year, less military hardware rolling down the parade route, maybe not even those giant inflatable balloons in the shape of Lenin and Stalin. The kids are going to be very disappointed now. At the same time as Trump and Putin talk about a ceasefire, Ukraine is continuing to strike the Kremlin's energy infrastructure. Ukrainian drones have hit targets hundreds of miles from the front lines. Just hours after the Trump Putin call, there was a strike on an energy facility located in perm that's roughly 1500 kilometers from the front lines, shaking the city's oil transit hub for receiving, storing and pumping crude through Russia's main pipeline network. Local officials there reported explosions and fires, while the security service of Ukraine claimed immediate responsibility and made the message explicit, saying, quote, the enemy must understand a simple fact. It no longer has a safe rear. In a separate strike from Kyiv, a refinery in the Black Sea port of Tuapse was hit. So now, while Trump and Putin are talking about a pause, obviously Ukraine is doing the opposite. It's still expanding the battlefield. But it's worth noting that Ukrainian President Zelensky isn't completely dismissing the ceasefire idea, however brief it may last. He's instructed his team to reach out to Washington and get clarity before weighing in. After all, the only two parties that really matter when it comes to orchestrating a ceasefire would be Ukraine and Russia. It's not dissimilar from the situation in the Middle east, where a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is being touted as progress, despite the fact that Hezbollah is not a party to it. Hezbollah and Israel are the only two parties that matter in terms of a ceasefire there. As an aside, ceasefires in the Ukraine conflict have proven to be tenuous and short lived. A ceasefire tied to Orthodox Easter earlier this month collapsed almost immediately, with both sides accusing each other of repeated violations. The same thing, of course, happened with the Orthodox Easter ceasefire the previous year. Over the next few days, we'll find out whether this turns into something real. Now, the one thing is Moscow may be sufficiently keen to ensure a successful and quiet victory day that they actually do agree to a temporary pause. Putin would rather not have his parade interrupted by Ukrainian drones. Okay, I want to turn now to the rapidly deteriorating security crisis in Mali, where Al Qaeda linked militants are bearing down on the capital of Bamako. And for the first time, the idea of a caliphate in West Africa is looking dangerously real. Earlier this week, a coordinated offensive by fighters tied to Jim J N I M, a major jihadist alliance in the Sahel erupted into one of the fiercest waves of attacks that Mali has seen in more than a decade, pushing toward Bamako while sweeping through key positions across the north and the east. And in the days since, well, the jihadist campaign hasn't slowed down. It's accelerated. What we're learning now, a new reporting from the Wall Street Journal is that JNM routed Russian backed forces from strategic towns, seizing armored vehicles and even an attack helicopter as they pushed across the Sahara. This isn't just happening in remote territory anymore. Inside Bamako, the violence has already reached key areas. Militants attacked the airport. And regarding those early reports of the Defense minister's home being attacked and his whereabouts unknown, well, we now know his fate. Mali's Defense Minister, the regime's second in command, was killed in a bombing at his residence. In a video released through its propaganda channels, the group announced a blockade on all routes into Bamako, attempting to cut off goods and restrict movement and economically suffocate the city. It's a tactic that they've used before in places like Timbuktu, but never at this scale. In past sieges, JNM hasn't always sealed cities completely. They have allowed civilians to leave, sometimes permanently, while tightly controlling what comes in. In some cases, limited food, medical supplies and even humanitarian groups have been allowed through. Allowing some limited access and aid into controlled areas allows JDM to avoid turning the population entirely against them while still applying enough economic pressure to weaken the city over time. At the same time, they're shaping the narrative in their messaging. JNM framed this blockade as retaliation, claiming residents in Bamako helped government forces capture and kill some of their fighters during the initial assault. For now, it's understood that there's no widespread panic in the capital, despite threats of a militant blockade. However, the US Embassy has already instructed American citizens to shelter in place, citing reports of terrorist movements within Bamako. And that brings us to the government response. Mali's military leadership is projecting control. The Malian president says a, quote, violent stopping blow has been dealt and insists the situation is under control, calling for national unity. And that's a narrative that doesn't appear to match the ground truth. His appearance came after days of public absence as rumors about his whereabouts began to circulate early in the offensive and whether he had suffered the same fate as the defense minister. Reportedly Russian backed forces which were brought in after Mali turned away from Western Support back in 2022, are now reportedly pulling back. The Kremlin controlled Africa Corps which absorbed fighters from the Wagner group, that's the Russian private army led by Evgeny Prigozhin before his death, of course, by Putin. Death by Putin, that's how it was ruled. Has withdrawn from key strongholds in the mineral rich north. And almost immediately, well, those positions were lost. The rebels moved in, capturing Russian armored vehicles and additional equipment left behind. At the same time, farther east, an Islamic State affiliate, a rival to Al Qaeda, has seized a border village near Niger from Russian forces. So it's not just one front collapsing. It appears to be multiple pressure points breaking all at once. Russia was supposed to stabilize Mali again after Mali decided to turn away from Western support. That was the Kremlin's pitch. Security in exchange for access, influence and resources. Instead, what you're seeing now is that model failing in real time. The executive director of the Sentry, a U. S based investigative organization, said, quote, the regime is highly vulnerable and the Russians have shown they can't protect it. So the risk is not just Bamako falling, but rather that the junta risks holding the capital in name only while losing control of the country around it. Western officials warn that if the scenario plays out, Mali could become the first country to fall under the control of an Al Qaeda aligned movement, effectively carving out a functioning caliphate in West Africa. It would become the first nation governed by an Al Qaeda aligned group. The same network, of course, responsible for the attacks that drew the U.S. into a 20 year war after September 11th. All right, up next, in the back of the brief, the cost of the Iran conflict comes into focus as the Pentagon says operations have already topped $25 billion and counting. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment to talk about something very important for anyone who's on Medicare or about to sign up for Medicare. Look, here's the thing. When folks get Medicare guidance, they rarely consider this fact. Agents get paid by big insurance to sell specific plans. It's just the way the business works. 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In today's Back of the Brief, we're getting our first real look at what the war in Iran is costing. According to testimony on Capitol Hill, US Military operations against Iran have already run up a price tag of roughly 25 billion doll billion just two months into the conflict. That figure came from Jay Hurst, the Pentagon's acting comptroller, during a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday, where he was joined by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and General Dan Kane, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. It marked the first public testimony by Pentagon leaders since the war began, as well as the first time officials have publicly disclosed an official estimate of the cost so far. And most of that money is being spent the way you expect, on munitions used in airstrikes, along with the cost of operating aircraft and naval assets and replacing equipment that's been destroyed. But even that number comes with a caveat. Pentagon officials make clear the total will likely continue to rise as operations move forward, and notably that the $25 billion figure is only a snapshot. Oh, it's just a snapshot. With officials still working to assess the full cost of the operation. In fact, the Pentagon has yet to submit a formal war funding request to Congress, citing their ongoing review of the Pentagon's spending. That's despite the fact that back in March, officials floated a much larger figure, around $200 billion, which never made it to lawmakers and was met with immediate skepticism at the hearing. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth pushed back hard on criticism of the war, arguing that the biggest threat facing the US Right now isn't Iran. It's what he called, quote, reckless feckless and defeatist rhetoric from members of Congress. He also warned that describing the war as a quagmire hands propaganda to America's enemies and undermines US Troops. At the same time, Pentagon leaders defended the operation itself, saying the goal remains clear, ensuring that Iran never develops a nuclear weapon. Hegseth went further, telling lawmakers that Iran's nuclear capabilities have been, quote, obliterated. That claim, however, drew pushback from lawmakers on the committee who questioned what the weeks of strikes have actually achieved and whether the operation is delivering lasting results. So for now, we have a headline number, 25 billion, but we don't yet have a full accounting of the price tag, a clear timeline for how long this will continue, or a detailed explanation of what the end state looks like. And when those pieces are still missing, well, it becomes difficult to fully assess what that final price tag may look like. And that, my friends, is the President's daily brief for Friday, the very first day of May. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and just because it's Friday and, well, because you deserve it, we've got another episode of our possibly highly acclaimed weekend show, the Situation Report, ready to launch this evening at 10pm on the First TV. You can also find it and past episodes on our YouTube channel, which, as you probably suspect, can be found on YouTube. Just search up at President's Daily Brief and of course, podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.