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The President's Daily Brief
May 20th, 2026: Russia Strikes Chinese Vessel Before Putin-Xi Summit
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It's Wednesday, the 20th of May. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, just before Vladimir Putin's arrival in Beijing, a Russian drone strike damages a Chinese owned vessel, casting an awkward shadow over his meeting with Xi Jinping. Yeah, it's a. It's a bit uncomfortable. Later in the show, Russia launches one of its largest nuclear drills in years, mobilizing tens of thousands of troops, missile launchers, submarines and strategic bombers. Plus, NATO is reportedly weighing a possible mission to protect commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz if the critical waterway remains blocked into July. Well, to be fair, you wouldn't want to rush into anything. It's best to hold a few more meetings and discussions to think about maybe doing something, possibly. And in today's back of the brief, Iran stages mass weddings for couples reportedly volunteering for self sacrifice in a future war with the US And Israel. That does sound romantic. Makes you wonder if they had a DJ or a cover band. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Just hours before Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, a Russian drone struck a Chinese owned cargo ship in the Black Sea near Ukraine. Now, no one was killed. The timing could hardly have been worse for the Kremlin. According to Ukrainian officials, Russian drones struck two civilian vessels approaching ports in Ukraine's Odessa region, including the Ksliang, a Chinese owned cargo ship operating under the Marshall Islands flag, which a Chinese crew aboard. Ukraine's navy later released photos showing visible damage to the vessel. While President Zelensky quickly seized on the incident publicly, saying, quote, the Russians could not have been unaware of what vessel was at sea. Now, no crew members were injured, and Ukrainian officials say the ship ultimately continued its journey after the crew handled the damage themselves. But diplomatically, this is what could be referred to as a, as an embarrassing moment for Moscow because Putin's trip to Beijing is supposed to project the image of a strong and unified Russia China partnership standing together against Western influence. Instead, the Russian President arrived in China immediately after one of his drones struck a Chinese commercial vessel. And the awkwardness of that moment speaks to a much larger reality surrounding this summit. Putin is walking into Beijing in a far weaker position than he would like to admit. For years, the Kremlin cultivated the image of Russia and China as equal great powers, reshaping the global order together. Putin especially loved projecting the idea that Moscow stood shoulder to shoulder with Beijing against what both governments describe as Western dominance. But after more than four years of a grinding war in Ukraine, the balance inside that relationship has shifted. Russia now needs China far more than China needs Russia. Moscow lost much of the European energy market following the invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions that followed. As a result, Russia has become increasingly dependent on China and to a lesser extent, India as buyers for its oil and gas exports. At the same time, Russia increasingly relies on Chinese manufacturing, consumer goods, industrial components and dual use technologies that can support Moscow's wartime economy. And Putin reportedly entered this summit looking for several very specific wins. One of the biggest would be the proposed power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline. Now that's a massive infrastructure project that would dramatically expand Russian gas exports into China. The problem for Moscow is that Beijing has shown little urgency about approving it. And you ask yourself why? Well, because China is in a much stronger negotiating position. Russia desperately needs new long term gas customers after losing Europe. China, meanwhile, has diversified its energy supplies and built up substantial reserves. Beijing can afford to wait, even if the disrupted Strait of Hormuz has caused some concern. And that creates a deeply uneven dynamic. In many ways, China now holds most, if not all, of the leverage in this relationship. And analysts are becoming increasingly blunt about it turning Russia into something of a junior partner. Now, publicly, both governments continue presenting the relationship as one of equals. Both Putin and Xi regularly speak about building a so called multipolar world order. Doesn't that sound fun? A phrase they use constantly when criticizing American influence in Western alliances. But beneath that messaging, the realities are becoming harder to ignore. China wants cheap Russian energy, access to Russian natural resources, and a stable geopolitical partner willing to challenge the U.S. but Beijing also wants stability. China still depends heavily on global trade, access to international markets and predictable energy flows. And that means Xi has little interest in fully tying China's future to Russia's increasingly volatile war in Ukraine. That's part of what makes the timing of this drone strike on the Chinese vessel so awkward. Because while the attack won't seriously damage Russia China relations, it does reinforce a broader pattern. Russia increasingly creates problems that China then has to carefully manage. And Xi understands something that Putin increasingly can't avoid. Russia's war has weakened Moscow strategically, economically and diplomatically. Even the optics surrounding this visit reinforce that reality. Putin arrived in Beijing just days after President Trump concluded his own summit with Xi Jinping. For China, the back to back visits are a bit of a diplomatic flex. Beijing gets to position itself as the indispensable global power capable of hosting both Washington and Moscow in the same week. But for Putin, the optics are less flattering. Instead of arriving as the leader of an ascendant rival superpower, Putin increasingly looks like a man trying to preserve Russia's relevance while depending more and more on China to do it. The relationship you see is no longer balanced, if in fact it ever was. Alright. Coming up next, Russia stages one of its largest nuclear drills in years while NATO eyes a possible Strait of Hormuz deployment. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a tip for gamers who are looking for the next great strategy game. I got one for you. I'm talking about Supremacy World War three. 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Welcome back to the pdb. Moscow is once again rattling its nuclear saber, carrying out one of its largest atomic forces drills in years. Possibly to distract from the fact that their invasion of Ukraine is is not going particularly well. Russia's Defense ministry says the three day exercise involves roughly 64,000 personnel, nearly 8,000 pieces of military equipment, more than 200 missile launchers, over 140 aircraft, 73 naval vessels and over a dozen submarines, including eight with nuclear tipped ICBMs. It is worth noting, however, that this is nothing new. Russia conducts nuclear related exercises on a recurring basis. That part by itself is not unusual. But what Moscow is doing here is operating on an entirely different level from these smaller annual exercises that we've seen throughout the war in Ukraine. Russia has not mobilized the scale of troops and missile units, submarines and military assets for a strategic nuclear exercise since before the full scale invasion of Ukraine. And that's important to understand because these drills are unfolding at the same moment that Ukraine is dramatically expanding its drone campaign inside Russia. The drills, which run through 21st of May, span multiple branches of Russia's armed forces and will include test launches of ballistic and cruise missiles across a three day window. If you compare this to Russia's 2025 nuclear exercise, the contrast is striking. That drill largely focused on launch procedures tied to Moscow's nuclear triad and lasted only a single day. What we're seeing now are days of tactical movements involving multiple fleets, missile systems, aircraft, and strategic for operating simultaneously across the country. Defense Ministry officials say the exercise is specifically designed to rehearse what Moscow described as, quote, the preparation and use of nuclear forces in the event of aggression. Now, that's the official explanation. But when you look at the backdrop, these drills start appearing less like routine military preparedness and more like strategic theater aimed at Ukraine and NATO and Washington. For much of the war, Putin worked very hard to insulate ordinary Russians from the conflict. But as we've been tracking, that illusion is getting harder to maintain. Ukrainian drones are reaching targets deep inside Russian territory, including around Moscow itself. Recent strikes damaged industrial infrastructure near the Russian capital. So you can start to see why the Kremlin may be leaning so heavily into these nuclear exercises. Now, the more Ukraine demonstrates it can strike inside Russia, the more the more Putin appears eager to project an image of overwhelming strength abroad. There's an argument to be made that the increasingly public nature of these drills reflects a Kremlin that's becoming more insecure, not less. Now, one of the biggest developments feeding into all of this came earlier this year when the New START Treaty, the final major nuclear arms agreement between the US and Russia, formally collapsed in February. New Start was effectively the final remaining guardrail, limiting the size and deployment of the world's two largest nuclear arsenals. But with that framework now gone, Moscow's nuclear messaging has become, well, noticeably more aggressive. In recent months, the Kremlin has increasingly showcased newer weapons systems designed to intimidate the West. That includes the Ereshnik missile, now stationed in Belarus along NATO's eastern frontier. The Ereshnik first appeared during a strike in Ukraine back in 2024. Putin described the missile as a hypersonic capable system carrying multiple warheads, and Moscow increasingly appears to be positioning weapons like a reshnik as centerpiece deterrents in this post new START environment. The heavier the Kremlin leans into nuclear signaling, though, the more it reflects their insecurity, or appears to. You know, the war is not going well, so the boys in the Kremlin need to remind the world about the size of their missiles. It's a tale as old as time. I want to turn now to the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps you've heard of it, where a new trigger point is quietly emerging not from Washington, but from within NATO itself, as the alliance will soon debate whether it will intervene if Iran keeps the vital waterway partially blocked. For months now, many European capitals treated Iran's chokehold on the strait as a headache, something that Washington could eventually sort out on its own. But that calculation is starting to break down as energy prices across Europe climb, shipping markets tightening, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to use one of the world's most important maritime waterways as leverage on the global economy. Up until now, most NATO alliance governments have insisted that they would only consider involvement after the fighting had cooled and ideally as part of some international coalition. But according to diplomats cited in reports by the Financial Post and Bloomberg, several NATO governments are now backing the idea of a maritime security mission if the blockade drags on. The problem, however, is that the alliance still lacks unanimous support for intervention in the Strait of Hormuz, and several capitals remain deeply reluctant to be dragged into the conflict in any capacity. That debate is expected to intensify when NATO leaders gather in Ankara on the 7th and 8th of July to discuss a potential plan involving demining and naval escorts. And we can see NATO leadership beginning to prepare the ground for that possibility as economic patience runs thin. NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe, Alexis Grynkwich, said when asked about possible alliance involvement in Hormuz that the political direction comes first, and then the formal planning happens after that. When pressed on whether he was considering such a mission, Grinkwich responded, am I thinking about it? Absolutely. Now the reason this conversation is accelerating is somewhat obvious. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. The and since Iran began choking maritime traffic following the US Strikes back in late February, economic pressure across parts of Europe has worsened. Now the US already attempted a maritime protection operation, deploying destroyers and escort operations and mine clearing assets. And despite American naval superiority, the operation stalled as the strait became flooded with drone swarms and naval mines and constant harassment operations tied to the irgc. So the question now is, if Washington undergoes operational challenges, how can a divided European alliance realistically pull this off without triggering direct escalation with the Iranian regime? Because once NATO vessels begin actively contesting the blockade, the margin for miscalculation becomes extremely small. But an important detail here is that Washington has not formally requested any NATO involvement. And that matters for a couple of reasons. First, NATO operations require political consensus. Once Washington formally requests alliance participation, every member government is effectively compelled to publicly declare their position. But second, and perhaps the bigger issue here, the absence of a formal request may also reflect uncertainty inside Washington about whether NATO is politically unified enough to sustain a mission like this if conditions deteriorate. Okay, coming up in today's Back of the Brief, Iran holds mass marriage ceremonies for couples reportedly volunteering for self sacrifice in a future regional war. Well, that is one wedding that nobody wants to crash. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, let me ask you a question. Do you ever wonder what happens to those, quote, natural brands when they go corporate? You know what I mean? They often get swallowed up by private equity and suddenly those simple natural ingred ingredients that you love, well, they're not so simple or natural anymore. But I want to tell you about Van Man Company. The Van Man Company is doing things differently. They're heading back to the basics. Their signature tallow balm, for example, is built on a powerful truth. Your skin should be fed what it actually understands. Here's the thing. Because the fatty acids in tallow closely match your skin's natural oils, it absorbs effortlessly, leaving you soft and smooth from day one. 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In today's Back of the Brief, we turn to a bizarre development in Tehran, where the Iranian regime is now staging mass public weddings for couples reportedly volunteering to sacrifice their lives for the Islamic Republic in the war with the US And Israel. According to reporting from CBS News and afp, hundreds of couples gathered Monday night in several major squares across Tehran, including more than 100 couples in the sprawling Imam Hussein Square in the center of the capital. But as I mentioned, these weren't ordinary state sponsored wedding ceremonies. Iranian state media said the couples participating had signed up for a government backed wartime mobilization initiative in which volunteers pledged their willingness to die for the regime if the conflict with the US and Israel escalates again, which is of course different than the regime demonstrating their willingness to kill their own citizens if protests escalate again. It's part of a broader, quote, self sacrifice campaign which involves encouraging a spirit of nationalism by having civilians pledge to put their lives on the line for the Iranian cause. We've seen other examples of this in recent weeks, including when civilians formed human chains around power plants and other critical infrastructure ahead of anticipated US strikes. All of them, I'm sure, were just volunteers. And according to Iranian authorities, millions of Iranians, including senior regime figures like President Masoud Bezechkian and Parliament speaker Mohammed Bakar Gallabak Buff, have allegedly signed on to the initiative. I mean, except possession and Galiboff didn't get married. Not to each other anyway. They just, they just signed the pledge. The ceremonies themselves appeared carefully designed to project both nationalism and religious symbolism. State television broadcast footage of couples arriving at Imam Hussein Square aboard military jeeps equipped with mounted machine guns before being married on a stage decorated with balloons and a giant portrait of Supreme Leader Mushtaba Khamenei. It's every girl's dream. Why, I recall back in the day, the amazing Mrs. Baker asked if we could arrive at our wedding in a jeep with twin 50s. I, of course, said yes, as long as we could also have a nice sculpture of Sean Connery as James Bond and a Martini Luge. But I digress. Iranian media frame the events as a celebration of resilience and religious devotion amid the ongoing standoff with the West. One groom reportedly said the participating couples hope to bring blessings to the Iranian people while also commemorating the anniversary of the marriage between Imam Ali and Fatima, the daughter of the Prophet Muhammad, a central event in Shiite Islamic tradition. But beneath the carefully staged symbolism, the broader message from Tehran appears fairly clear. As tensions with Washington remain high and President Trump continues warning that military action could resume if negotiations collapse. The Iranian regime is increasingly shifting into long term mobilization mode, trying to project unity and ideological commitment and public readiness for potential renewed military confrontation with the US And Israel. And these mass weddings are only one part of the campaign. CBS reports that military tents also appeared across Tehran on Monday, where Iranian personnel were offering civilians basic firearms instruction. Meanwhile, Iranian authorities continue to hold pro government rallies almost daily throughout the capital. My own suggestion for the regime would be that they should hand out weapons and ammunition to all the Iranian civilians. Let's see how that goes. And that, my friends, is the President's daily brief for Wednesday, 20 May now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me@pdbhefirsttv.com and of course, if you'd like an ad free PDB experience, we can make that happen. Just become a Premium member by visiting PDB premium.com It's that simple. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
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