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The President's Daily Brief
May 22nd, 2026: Iran’s Economy Is Breaking Under A Massive Internet Blackout & Russia Threatens Latvia
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Somewhere off in the distance, Vladimir Putin is chuckling while stroking his hairless cat. I never get tired of that visual. And in today's Back of the Brief, a US Bound flight is forced to divert after officials discover a passenger from an Ebola hit region on board. Because, of course, that's what the world needs right now, a new pandemic. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. The Islamic Republic is now in the middle of what Digital watchdog groups say may be the longest and most severe Internet blackout in modern history. A shutdown so extensive that is beginning to cripple not just communication inside Iran, but the basic functioning of the country's economy. In Iran, as with just about every other country, the Internet is something like the nervous system of the state. It carries data, commerce, communication, logistics, banking, news, and human connection across an entire country in real time. And in Iran right now, that nervous system is being deliberately strangled by the regime. According to the digital monitoring organization NetBlocks, Internet connectivity inside Iran has hovered between just 1 and 2% of normal capacity for weeks. Before the unrest began, the country typically operated at around 90 to 100% connectivity. The blackout first intensified earlier this year after anti government protests erupted across the country in January 1st. Thousands. By some estimates, tens of thousands of demonstrators were reportedly killed in the government crackdown that followed. Iranian authorities then moved to heavily restrict Internet access in an attempt, of course, to suppress communications and keep images and information from spreading both domestically and internationally. But after the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, the restrictions tightened significantly, and they've largely remained in place ever since. For a modern economy, loss of access to the Internet, whether through government shutdown or infrastructure breakdown or cyber attack, well, it can quickly become catastrophic. Millions of Iranians rely on Internet access for work. Businesses use messaging apps like Telegram and WhatsApp to coordinate with suppliers and customers. Small online shops depend heavily on Instagram to advertise products and process orders. Freelancers and programmers work remotely for international clients. Financial traders, logistics companies, and tech startups all depend on stable connectivity. And now much of that has simply stopped functioning. One economist cited by the Wall Street Journal estimates that roughly 10 million Iranian jobs are directly or indirectly tied to the country's digital economy, with connectivity now reduced to almost nothing. Businesses are reportedly shutting down, projects are being abandoned, and unemployment is climbing even higher. Inside a country already facing soaring inflation and a collapsing currency. One software developer in Tehran told reporters that tech firms are slowly being eliminated, with companies downsizing or closing altogether because they can no longer operate effectively under the restrictions. Projects involving data centers and artificial intelligence development have reportedly stalled completely. At the same time, supply shortages are worsening the situation. Much of Iran's tech equipment, including hard drives and computer components, previously arrived through trade routes connected to Dubai. But wartime disruptions and regional trade restrictions have reportedly choked off many of those imports, sending prices skyrocketing. And beyond the economic damage, the blackout is also reshaping ordinary daily life inside Iran. Iranians interviewed by Reporters described being unable to complete even basic tasks, contacting family members, accessing medical records, updating software software or receiving independent news during wartime conditions. As missiles and airstrikes hit targets across the region earlier this year, many Iranians reportedly had little access to information outside of state controlled media. But perhaps the most revealing part of this story is what comes next, because increasingly this no longer appears to be a temporary wartime measure. It looks more like the early stages of a new model of digital authoritarianism. Iran's government has reportedly begun rolling out a tiered Internet access system known as Internet Pro, allowing select government approved users to purchase broader access to the web through state approved white SIM cards. Those users receive fewer restrictions and better access to foreign websites, but only after registering personal information with the government and paying fees many ordinary Iranians cannot afford. In other words, uncensored Internet access is increasingly becoming something reserved for the connected, the trusted, the government approved, and the wealthy. Meanwhile, thousands of Iranians have reportedly turned to Elon Musk's Starlink satellite Internet terminals as a workaround. The devices are illegal in Iran, and authorities have reportedly raided homes searching for them. Possession of a Starlink terminal can reportedly lead to years in prison. Still, demand remains high because for many Iranians, access to the Internet is no longer just about convenience. It's about survival. And the long term implications here could be enormous. Even if the war eventually cools down and restrictions ease, the damage may already be done. International businesses are unlikely to view Iran as a stable environment for investment. If Internet access can disappear overnight, young professionals in technology and finance may increasingly look for ways to get out of the country altogether. And the regime itself appears to be moving steadily toward a far more centralized and tightly controlled domestic Internet model, something closer to a digital iron curtain. For years, Iran tried to balance authoritarian control with participation in the modern digital economy. But those two goals are becoming harder and harder to reconcile. Coming up next, Russia threatens Latvia over alleged Ukrainian drone operations, while soaring fuel prices tied to the Iran conflict push the US And Britain to ease pressure on Russian oil exports. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for every taxpayer out there. Now, we've all heard those radio ads about the irs. You know what I'm talking about. Plenty of ads. 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The war in Ukraine is again nearing NATO's frontline members, this time as Russia accuses Latvia and other Baltic states of helping facilitate Ukrainian drone attacks, warning alliance membership will not shield them from retaliation. Now on the surface, this may sound like another exchange of threats between Moscow and the alliance, but this time it goes well beyond that. This week, Russia's ambassador to the UN said that the Kremlin believes Ukraine dispatched drone units into Latvia and potentially other Baltic countries. In fact, the envoy went even further, warning that Moscow already knows the coordinates of these so called decision making centers inside Latvia before delivering the line that really escalated this confrontation saying quote, membership in NATO will not protect you from retaliation, end quote. And that's a obviously significant statement from the Kremlin because we're talking about countries like Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, not some non aligned buffer states sitting outside the Western alliance. These are NATO members, of course, sitting on Russia's border protected under Article 5, meaning an attack on one is legally treated as an attack on the entire alliance, including the U.S. that's why officials across NATO are taking this accusatory rhetoric so seriously. For decades, one of the core assumptions underpinning European security has been that Moscow would avoid directly threatening NATO territory itself for fear of triggering a confrontation with the alliance. But increasingly in part because the war has not gone as Moscow envisioned. Russia appears to be testing that line rhetorically by arguing the Baltics are no longer simply supporting Ukraine from afar, but are instead becoming operationally tied to Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. Now the response from Latvia and NATO came almost immediately. Latvia's ambassador to the UN dismissed the accusations as, quote, pure fiction, while Latvia's Foreign Ministry summoned Russia's acting envoy and issued what it described as a, quote, categorical protest. And the language from the Latvian capital, Riga was unusually direct, the ministry warned. Despite repeated communications by the Latvian side, the Russian side continues to spread lies and make escalatory statements. Ukraine's envoy to the UN also rejected Moscow's accusations as fairy tales, while pointing back to Russia's continued attacks on Ukrainian civilians, which Kyiv says have made the first half of May one of the deadliest periods of the war in months. The deputy US Ambassador to the UN warned that the UN was no place for threats against a council member. Now all this finger pointing traces back to another drone incident earlier this week involving Estonia. Ukraine accused Russia of using electronic interference to redirect one of Kyiv's drones into Estonian airspace, where a NATO fighter jet shot it down. It was the first interception in the Baltics since Russia launched its full scale invasion back in 2022. For years now, NATO's Baltic members have operated under the assumption that the war in Ukraine could at some point spill into their territories. But physically intercepting a Ukrainian drone inside NATO airspace represents one of the clearest signs yet that the conflict is no longer neatly contained inside Ukraine. Kyiv later apologized to Estonia and insisted it was not using Latvian or Estonian territory to launch attacks against Russia. The Baltic governments echoed those denials, and NATO Supreme Allied Commander of Europe American General Alexis Grinkwich pushed back directly against Moscow's narrative, saying, if we were allowing drones to go through Baltic airspace in order to get to Russia, we wouldn't be shooting them down. Still, despite those denials, you can feel anxiety across the region. As an example, this week Lithuania issued a drone alert that forced residents in parts of the capital to take shelter underground while transportation was temporarily halted. It was the first time since Putin's 2022 invasion that such an alert has been issued in Lithuania. Alright, shifting gears, the Trump administration is again easing part of its own sanctions campaign on Russian oil, while Britain is now softening some of its own restrictions as the conflict with Iran further squeezes global energy markets. The bigger issue is not just another American waiver itself or even London rolling out a similar move. It's the larger position that the west suddenly finds itself in. For years, the US and its allies built an enormous economic pressure campaign around cutting Russia off from global energy revenue, following, of course, Moscow's full scale invasion of Ukraine. Longtime PDB listeners know that sanctions targeting Russian oil became one of the central tools that Washington used to squeeze the Kremlin financially while backing Kyiv militarily. But the Iran conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to collide directly with that strategy. Because as Gulf shipping lanes remain unstable and crude prices climb, Western governments are confronting a very different reality than the one they faced just months ago. The priority is no longer just isolating Russian energy exports, it's also preventing a broader fuel shock across allied economies. That's what makes this latest move from the Trump administration so significant. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen announced the new 30 day extension of a sanctions waiver that allows certain countries to continue purchasing Russian seaborne oil already stranded aboard tankers without violating US Sanctions. The move does not authorize fresh Russian oil exports, and the waiver only applies to cargo that had already been loaded before 17 April and later became trapped under sanctions restrictions. Now the administration is presenting this as a temporary stabilization measure aimed at helping poorer energy vulnerable countries continue accessing fuel after Gulf oil shipments became increasingly unreliable. According to Reuters, several vulnerable countries specifically pushed for the extension. In fact, some of you may recall the treasury first introduced the temporary waiver back in March after U S Israeli strikes on Iran triggered fears of major supply shortages and sent oil prices sharply higher. The administration initially allowed the waiver to lapse before restoring it again, and just last month Bessant said no further extension was planned. Now Washington has reversed course again, and that creates of course, an uncomfortable contradiction for the west because every additional Russian barrel reaching global markets helps stabilize supply, but at the same time it also helps Moscow continue generating energy revenue for its war chest despite Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed Wednesday that the UK Is also easing part of its own Russian oil restrictions after fears of jet fuel shortages began hitting British consumers. Under a temporary trade license, Britain is permitting imports of Russian crude refined into jet fuel and diesel through third countries, including India and Turkey. The UK previously announced a full ban on those refined products in October as part of its own sanctions campaign against Moscow. Even some of Ukraine's strongest Western backers are slowing parts of their sanctions rollout to shield consumers from the economic fallout, but Starmer insists Britain's support for Ukraine remains unwavering and described the license as a targeted short term measure to protect British consumers during the energy crisis. Still, British officials also acknowledged the licenses currently have no formal expiration date, though they say the policy will be reviewed regularly moving forward, and that immediately drew attention. In Kyiv, Ukrainian officials confirmed they were seeking clarification from London after that announcement because from Ukraine's perspective, the contradiction is becoming harder to ignore. The US, Britain and the G7 alliance continue to reaffirm what they describe as their unwavering commitment to impose severe costs on Russia over the war in Ukraine. However, at the same time, the realities of the Iran conflict, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and voters at home unhappy with paying more at the fuel pumps are beginning to force temporary compromises. Alright, coming up in the back of the brief, a Paris to Detroit flight is diverted to Canada over concerns involving a passenger from Central Africa's Ebola outbreak region. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. I want to take just a moment to talk about security, specifically your online security. Now here's the thing. In a world of data breaches and intrusions and identity theft and online harassment, keeping your personal life private feels like a full time job. And if you're like me, keeping you and your family's private lives private is important, right? That's where Delete Me comes in. They do the heavy lifting, wiping your family's information from data broker websites. You'll receive regular personalized reports showing exactly what was found and removed. 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In today's Back of the Brief, we turn to a growing Ebola outbreak in Central Africa that is now prompting increasingly aggressive containment measures, including the diversion of a US Bound passenger jet this week. An Air France flight traveling from Paris to Detroit was forced to divert to Montreal, Canada, on Wednesday after U.S. customs and Border Patrol determined that a passenger from the Democratic Republic of Congo had been allowed onto the flight in error. According to US Officials, the passenger should not have been permitted to board under emergency travel restrictions put in place to prevent the spread of Ebola. The discovery came late with the flight only a few hours away from landing in Detroit when the captain informed passengers that US Authorities would not allow the aircraft to enter the country. Passengers later reported seeing cabin crew don face masks as the plane changed course and headed for Montreal, roughly 500 miles away. Now, it's important to note that officials have not said whether the passenger was displaying symptoms of Ebola, nor have they indicated when the individual was last in the Democratic Republic of Congo. But the incident underscores just how seriously authorities are treating the risk of international spread in this post Covid world. The outbreak is centered in the Democratic Republic of Congo and neighboring Uganda, where health officials have identified more than 600 suspected cases and believe nearly 140 people have died. It's worth noting that an American physician working with a medical missionary group in Congo has already contracted the virus and is currently being treated in a specialized isolation unit in Germany. The World Health Organization declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern on Sunday. That's the highest level of alert available to the organization. Adding to concerns, the outbreak involves the Bundebugo strain of Ebola. Now that's a variant for which there is currently no approved vaccine. The whom the WHO warned Wednesday it could take as long as nine months before a vaccine candidate is ready for broader use. In response, the US has imposed strict entry requirements on travelers who have recently been in the Congo, Uganda or South Sudan. Foreign nationals who have recently visited those countries are generally barred from entry, while American citizens and permanent residents must enter through Washington Dulles International Airport, where they undergo enhanced health screening. Still, despite the strict precautions, U.S. health officials continue to emphasize that the overall risk to Americans remains low. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Friday, 22 May. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me@pdb the first tv.com and remember, set your watches, mark your calendars. Another episode of our extended weekend show, the PDB Situation Report hits the airwaves tonight at 10pm on the first TV. You can also catch it in past episodes on our YouTube channel, at President's Daily Brief and on podcast platforms. Wherever you get your podcast stuff, I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Yes you can. A five minute, quick and easy calorie burning workout. Give it a try. Come join our sweat sesh on TikTok.