The President’s Daily Brief — November 13, 2025
Host: Mike Baker, Former CIA Operations Officer
Podcast: The President’s Daily Brief (The First TV)
Episode Theme: Geopolitical tensions in the Americas and challenges in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, with a focus on Venezuela’s resistance plans, Ukraine’s faltering air defense, Colombia’s diplomatic rift with the U.S., and a new pause in Houthi maritime attacks.

Overview of the Episode

In this episode, Mike Baker delivers concise intelligence updates and analysis on:

• Venezuela’s evolving defense strategy against a possible U.S. intervention
• The weakening state of Ukraine’s air defenses as Russian attacks intensify
• Colombia’s suspension of intelligence sharing with the U.S.
• The Houthi rebels’ pause on attacks against Israel and Red Sea shipping, pending the Gaza ceasefire

Baker’s approach is both analytical and somewhat sardonic, bringing listeners up to speed on the day’s most critical global developments.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Venezuela’s Plans to Resist U.S. Military Intervention

[01:00–09:30]

• U.S. Buildup in the Caribbean: USS Gerald Ford strike group arrives, signaling serious U.S. intent.
• Venezuela’s National Mobilization: Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez declares “full operational readiness” for all forces, suggesting up to 200,000 personnel mobilized—a number Baker casts doubt on:
  • “Numbers like that are hard to verify. But one thing is certain: the Maduro regime wants the world, and particularly Washington, to believe anyway that it’s ready for a fight.” [03:50]
• Asymmetric Warfare Over Conventional:
  • Venezuelan military acknowledges it cannot win via conventional means:
    • “One officer told Reuters, ‘We wouldn’t last two hours.’” [06:20]
  • Focus shifts to guerrilla tactics, “prolonged resistance,” and “anarchization”—deliberately inducing chaos and civil disorder to make any occupation ungovernable.
• Resistance Infrastructure:
  • Over 280 resistance sites identified.
  • Use of hit-and-run tactics, sabotage, and ambush.
  • Civilian militias (including pro-regime “colectivos”) trained for urban warfare and sabotage since 2019.
  • All-of-nation approach incorporates intelligence services and criminal gangs.
• Propaganda Strategy and Foreign Support:
  • Maduro frames the standoff as anti-imperialist resistance to rally support domestically and from allies (Cuba, Iran, Russia, etc.).
  • Allies may offer cyber ops, intelligence, weapons.
• Forecast for U.S.: Any intervention risks a “drawn out, chaotic fight.”
  • “The question then isn’t whether the US could win, it’s whether it could contain the chaos that follows.” [09:00]
  • “For Maduro, this playbook is as much about deterrence as defense.” [09:15]

2. Ukraine’s Air Defenses Falter

[12:30–15:55]

• Declining Interception Rates:
  • Russian drone barrages are intensifying; Ukraine’s interception rate slipped to under 80% for drones (lowest all year), and missiles dropped to about 50% intercepted, the weakest since April.
  • “The numbers tell the story: of roughly 5,300 Russian drones launched last month, about 4,200 were destroyed or jammed.” [13:12]
• Strain on Ukraine’s Power Grid:
  • Repeated Russian strikes leave sections of Ukraine occasionally with “zero power generating capacity.”
  • President Zelensky admits strain:
    • “The Russians have increased their striking power.” — Zelensky, as quoted by Baker [14:10]
• Moscow’s New Attack Strategy:
  • Mixed salvos of cheap Iranian-made Shahed drones, decoys, and cruise missiles intended to exhaust Ukraine’s expensive interceptors.
  • "Military analysts say Moscow is now mixing waves... in coordinated attacks meant to drain Ukraine’s expensive interceptors." [14:20]
• Unsustainable Economics:
  • Cost disparities: Patriot interceptor missile $(~$4M), Shahed drone ($20k), decoy ($10k).
  • Ukraine improvises: invests in homemade interception drones, electronic warfare, urges Western allies for quicker, cheaper support.
• Winter Compounds the Problem:
  • Poor visibility and weather hinder defense teams.
  • “If the weather is bad, visibility is bad… rain and snow make it tougher for teams to spot low flying drones.” [15:50]

3. Colombia Halts Intelligence Sharing with U.S.

[16:00–18:10]

• Rift Over U.S. Drug Cartel Strikes:
  • Colombia’s leftist President Gustavo Petro orders a freeze in intelligence cooperation, citing “human rights” following U.S. military actions in the Caribbean.
  • Baker’s take: “Oh, how self-righteous... maybe a leftist Former guerrilla fighter known for his coddling of narco traffickers, shouldn't be spouting off about human rights.” [16:55]
• Uncertainty of Impact:
  • Details of what intelligence will be withheld are vague.
  • Already a strained partnership since Petro’s government took office.
• International Context:
  • The UK and other countries have similarly frozen or critiqued cooperation over alleged extrajudicial executions in U.S. anti-narco campaigns.
  • “Canada and UN human rights officials echo those criticisms. That’s a shock.” [17:40]
• Broader Implications:
  • The partnership, once vital to U.S. counternarcotics efforts in South America, is now “fractured.”
  • White House accuses Petro of enabling drug cartels.
  • Recent U.S. sanctions target Petro and family for alleged cartel ties.
  • “Its leftist leader seems more eager to criticize President Trump’s strategy than to confront the cartels that have been bankrolling his economy.” [18:06]

4. Back of the Brief: Houthis Halt Attacks (Pending Gaza Ceasefire)

[19:28–21:33]

• Houthi Pause Announcement:
  • Yemeni Houthi rebels send a letter stating they are pausing attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping as long as Israel’s military campaign in Gaza remains frozen.
  • If Israel resumes, they threaten to restart missile and drone launches, and reimpose the Red Sea blockade.
• Campaign to Date:
  • Since late 2023: Over 130 ballistic missiles, many drones aimed at Israel; commercial shipping disrupted.
  • At least 9 sailors killed, 4 ships sunk, $1 trillion in trade threatened.
  • “The campaign… killed at least nine sailors, sunk four ships, and rattled global trade through a corridor that previously handled over $1 trillion in goods annually.” [20:20]
  • Israel and the U.S. have both launched airstrikes in retaliation, targeting Houthi assets.
• Motivation for Pause:
  • Linked to U.S. pressure to maintain the Gaza ceasefire; Houthis signaled willingness to act if conflict reignites.
  • “Still, the letter reads less like a peace offering than a warning.” [21:26]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Venezuela’s “full operational readiness”:

  • “The Maduro regime wants the world, and particularly Washington, to believe anyway that it’s ready for a fight.” [03:50]

• On Venezuela’s actual military capacity:

  • “One officer told Reuters, ‘We wouldn’t last two hours.’” [06:20]

• On the cost strategy behind Venezuela’s resistance:

  • “To make an invasion too costly, too messy and too politically painful for the US to sustain.” [08:15]

• On the air defense war of attrition in Ukraine:

  • “Each interceptor missile for a US supplied Patriot system or German IRIS T launcher can cost up to $4 million. For comparison, a Shahed drone, it’s around $20,000.” [15:00]

• Mike Baker’s sarcasm on Petro’s human rights stance:

  • “Oh, how self-righteous... maybe a leftist Former guerrilla fighter known for his coddling of narco traffickers, shouldn't be spouting off about human rights.” [16:55]

• On Houthi’s conditional ceasefire:

  • “The group made clear that if Israel resumes operations in Gaza, it will resume its campaign. And that, my friends, is the President’s Daily brief for Thursday 13th November.” [21:32]

Timestamps of Key Segments

• 00:45: U.S. Navy arrives in Caribbean, Venezuela’s mobilization response
• 03:00–07:00: Details of Venezuela's guerrilla and chaos-based defense plans
• 09:15: Strategic analysis – U.S. risks in Venezuelan intervention
• 12:30–15:55: Analysis of Ukraine air defense attrition and military costs
• 16:00–18:10: Colombia’s diplomatic freeze and political analysis
• 19:28–21:33: “Back of the Brief” — Houthi rebels’ pause explained

Conclusion

Mike Baker’s November 13th, 2025 episode of The President’s Daily Brief provides actionable and sobering insights on escalating risks in the Americas and Eurasia, interspersed with critical commentary and direct quotes from key actors. The episode highlights the complexities and unintended consequences of modern conflict and international relations, offering an intelligence-style daily update for listeners who want to understand the stakes—and the strategies—behind the headlines.