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The President's Daily Brief
November 13th, 2025: Inside Venezuela’s Plan To Resist A U.S. Invasion & Ukraine’s Air Defenses Falter
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Plus, Colombia has become the latest nation to suspend cooperation with the U. S cutting off intelligence sharing over Washington's recent strikes on drug traffickers. And in today's back of the brief, Yemen's Houthi rebels remember them well. They say they've halted all attacks on Israel and the Red Sea shipping, signaling a pause in their campaign as the Gaza ceasefire holds. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. America's most powerful aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, along with its strike group, arrived in the Caribbean this week. And just hours after the carrier group appeared on the radar, Venezuela's Defense Minister, Vladimir Padrino Lopez announced what he called a massive national mobilization. He declared that the country's entire military arsenal was now on, quote, full operational readiness. Ooh, how about that? According to Caracas, the order includes the deployment of ground, air, naval, riverine and missile forces. With every branch of the armed forces, militias and security units participating. Maduro's government claims that some 200,000 personnel are involved. Now, it's worth noting that numbers like that are hard to verify. But one thing is certain. The Maduro regime wants the world, and particularly Washington to believe anyway that it's ready for a fight. Now, obviously, Venezuela's conventional military is no match for the US and for that, I give myself the PDB statement of the obvious award for the day. But that's where a new Reuters exclusive report sheds some light on how Caracas actually plans to respond if things do get messy. If you're a regular listener, you'll know that we focus largely on the massive amount of US Hardware that's been pouring into the region, the ships, the aircraft and precision munitions. But one thing we haven't given much attention to is just how Venezuela would potentially mount its resistance in the event of a conflict with the U.S. well, today's Reuters report gives us some insight. And what they're planning says a lot about the shortcomings of the Venezuelan military. According to internal documents and interviews with senior officers, Venezuela has no illusions about winning a conventional war. One officer told Reuters, we wouldn't last two hours. Instead, the Venezuelan government is quietly preparing for asymmetric warfare, a guerrilla style campaign designed to turn any US invasion into a drawn out chaotic fight. The plan includes two key elements. First, what they call prolonged resistance. Venezuela forces would scatter into hundreds of smaller units. More than 280 different sites have already been identified, each capable of operating independently. These groups would use hit and run tactics, sabotage and ambushes against U.S. and allied forces. The second element is somewhat darker, something that Venezuelan officials describe as anarchization. In other words, creating chaos, fueling unrest, riots and internal disorder. To make any occupation ungovernable. The idea is to flood the zone with instability so that the US would face not only a hostile regime, but a collapsing state. One could argue that it's already collapsing. It's not exactly a strategy born of strength. It's an acknowledgment that Venezuela's army, despite its size on paper, is poorly trained and poorly equipped and deeply demoralized. Most of its arsenal consists of aging Soviet era Russian hardware, T72 tanks, Sukhoi fighter jets, and surface to air systems that are decades old. Troops are underpaid, earning roughly $100 a month in local currency and have little combat experience beyond domestic policing, crow control and beating political dissidents who oppose Maduro. That leaves the regime with one realistic option. To make an invasion too costly, too messy and too politically painful for the US to sustain. To pull that off, the Maduro government is relying heavily on its civilian militias. It's a network of loyalists trained to conduct urban warfare and sabotage. They've been preparing since at least 2019, when fears of a US backed uprising were at their peak. The documents reviewed by Reuters describe a all of nation approach where militias, intelligence services and pro regime gangs known as colectivos would all be mobilized. These groups would attack infrastructure, block roads and stage hit and run strikes on supply convoys. And there's another layer to this strategy, and that would be propaganda. The mobilization isn't just about military readiness, it's about messaging. Maduro wants to frame any confrontation with the US as imperial aggression, hoping to rally nationalist sentiment at home and sympathetic governments abroad. The move also plays well with his allies. Cuba, Iran and Russia have all provided support technical, financial, rhetorical to the Maduro regime. And if fighting were to break out, each could provide asymmetric assistance, cyber operations, weapons transfers or intelligence sharing. So you ask yourself, what does all this mean for Washington? Well, it means that any military confrontation, however limited, wouldn't be likely, quick or clean. Even if US forces could destroy Venezuela's command structure in days, the aftermath could devolve into a grinding insurgency with militias and criminal networks and foreign intelligence services all in the mix. The question then isn't whether the US could win, it's whether it could contain the chaos that follows. For Maduro, this playbook is as much about deterrence as defense. By making the cost of invasion appear to be unbearable, he's trying to prevent it altogether. It's a strategy that depends on convincing President Trump that Venezuela is better left alone. Alright, coming up after the break, Ukraine's air defenses are slipping, showing cracks as Russia steps up its attacks and Colombia suspends intelligence ties with the US Over American strikes on drug traffickers in the Caribbean. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of time to talk about your security, specifically your online security, and to tell you about a great company called Delete Me that's out there working hard to keep you safe online. Deleteme makes it easy, quick and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone vulnerable. Deleteme sends you regular personalized privacy reports showing what information they found, where they found it and what they've removed. Now, if you're like me, you care about protecting your personal data. And I know that Delete Me helps us stay ahead of threats like identity theft and doxing by removing information from data broker sites. 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Out of 270 rockets fired at Ukrainian cities, barely half were taken down in what was the weakest result since April. It's a sharp turn for a country that once prided itself on near perfect shootdown rates. And it's raising new worries about whether Kyiv's defenses can keep up as winter sets in and Moscow's attacks grow bolder. But I do want to point out that Ukraine's air force released only the raw data, with no details of what defenses were used or where. The figures were reviewed by ABC News but couldn't be independently verified. And both sides have reasons, of course, to tweak the numbers, part of the endless cat and mouse game to outsmart the other's strategy. Still, the trend is hard to ignore. Russia's attacks are increasing while Ukraine is intercepting fewer incoming missiles and drones. And that Kremlin campaign has left a visible mark on the ground. As we've previously discussed, across Ukraine, the power grid is struggling to stay online. The state operator says repeated strikes have at times left part of the country with, quote, zero power generating capacity. Ukrainian President Zelensky acknowledged the strain, posting on telegram that repair crews, power engineers and utility services are virtually working around the clock. In his words, quote, the Russians have increased their striking power. The Kremlin strategy emphasizes saturation, overwhelming Ukraine's air defenses with sheer volume and complexity. Military analysts say Moscow is now mixing waves of Iranian made shahed drones, cheap decoys and cruise missiles in coordinated attacks meant to drain Ukraine's expensive interceptors. A former officer in Ukraine's security service told ABC News that the average monthly drone count from Russia this year has reached 4400. He said, quote, day to day it's become more difficult to intercept them, noting that many of Moscow's drones now come equipped with anti jamming systems that make them not only harder to spot, but of course, harder to eliminate. For Ukraine, it's not only just a question of volume, it's economics. And the imbalance is somewhat staggering. Each interceptor missile for a US supplied Patriot system or German IRIS T launcher can cost up to $4 million. For comparison, a Shahed drone, it's around $20,000. A decoy drone, closer to $10,000. And that gap is forcing Kyiv to improvise. The government has poured money into homegrown interception drones and electronic warfare systems, while Zelensky continues to press Western allies to deliver cheaper, faster alternatives. But even those efforts can't fill the void. And then there's the weather. Winter's early chill has made defense more difficult. The Finland based open source intelligence analyst organization Blackbird Group stated plainly, if the weather is bad, visibility is bad, explaining that rain and snow make it tougher for teams to spot low flying drones. So Ukraine's once formidable defensive umbrella is under immense pressure and resupply is lagging behind Russia's constant barrages as both sides dig in for another brutal winter. Keef's defenses for the first time in months are showing signs of fatigue. Okay, shifting to Colombia, where socialist President Gustavo Petro has stirred up a new fight with Washington, making Colombia the latest to limit or cut off intelligence sharing with the US Over President Trump's Caribbean strikes on suspected drug runners. In a post on X, Petro rolled out the order urging Colombia's military to shut down every channel of communications and other agreements with American security agencies. The leftist president cast it as a stand for human rights. Oh, how self righteous. Saying the drug war must now answer to, quote, the human rights of the Caribbean people. Well, maybe, and here I'm just tossing out an idea, but maybe a leftist Former guerrilla fighter known for his coddling of narco traffickers, shouldn't be spouting off about human rights. It's unclear just what intelligence Colombia will realistically withhold, as Petro didn't specify raising questions about whether he's indeed taking a principled stand or merely performing political theater from Latin America's socialist bloc. It's also unclear as to whether his leftist government has actually been engaged in any meaningful intel sharing up to this point. Regardless, it's a symbolic break from a partnership once considered the backbone of US counter drug operations across South America, although not with Petro's government. And it lands at the same time as the UK's own freeze on intelligence sharing announced this week and it was put in place last month. In case you're wondering, yes, the UK withholding intel is far more serious and potentially damaging than Colombia's decision to withhold intel. But obviously neither is a welcome development. As we discussed on Wednesday's pdb, London says the strikes in the Caribbean breach international law. Canada and UN human rights officials echo those criticisms. That's a shock. Stating that the American military campaign resembles so called extrajudicial executions. But the Trump administration sees it differently. White House officials say the mission targets vessels posing a, quote, imminent threat to national security. Armed speedboats tied to cartels moving drugs, weapons and cash across the region toward America's shores. And while the operations began in the southern Caribbean near Venezuela, the campaign, as we've been tracking, has adapted and expanded. US forces recently targeted boats in the western and eastern Pacific off both Colombia and Mexico. At least 76 people so far have been killed in the military strikes, according to the Trump administration. Petro, who appears to be attempting to cast himself as some sort of regional conscience. Yeah, that's good. Has seized on those numbers. He's accused President Trump of committing war crimes and demanded an internal investigation. For Trump's White House, it's merely an act from a leader whose own record on narcotics enforcement is far from clean. Washington points out that Petro, a former guerrilla who spent years reeling against American drug policy, has allowed rebel commanders tied to the cocaine trade to avoid extradition to the us. Now, you may remember back in October when the Trump administration sanctioned Petro and several of his family members over alleged links to Bogota's shadow narcotics economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant accused Petro of having allowed drug cartels to flourish and praised President Trump for taking strong action to protect our nation. So what was once a dependable partnership in counternarcotics enforcement is now fractured as Bogota steps away from intelligence sharing. Its leftist leader seems more eager to criticize President Trump's strategy than to confront the cartels that have been bankrolling his economy. All right, coming up next, in the back of the brief, Yemen's Houthi rebels say they've halted attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping. How big of them? But warned that they'll strike again if the Gaza ceasefire collapses. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, you may have noticed it's now November, right? And that means, of course, getting ready for Thanksgiving. Now, Thanksgiving is one of those few times of the year when we can all slow down just a bit, right? Gather as families and remind ourselves of what we're thankful for. And remember, please, no talk about politics or taxes or religion around the table. It's all about gratitude, not just for the past, but for the future. 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In today's Back of the brief. After nearly two years of drone and missile attacks, Yemen's Houthi rebels say they've halted their campaign against Israel and commercial shipping in the Red Sea. The statement came in the form of an undated letter from the group's military chief of staff, Major general Yusuf Hassan al Madani, and addressed to Hamas Al Qassam Brigades and posted online. In it, the Iran backed militia declared that it's closely monitoring developments in Gaza and will resume military operations only if Israel restarts its campaign there. If that happens, the Houthis warn, they will again target Israeli cities and reinstate their blockade on Red Sea and Arabian Sea navigation. For now, though, the group's guns appear to have gone quiet. Israel hasn't reported any Houthi drone or missile launches since early October, just before the current Gaza ceasefire began. The halt marks the first sustained pause in a campaign that since late 2023 has seen more than 130 ballistic missiles and dozens of drones launched toward Israel, along with a wave of strikes on commercial vessels transiting one of the world's most vital shipping routes. That campaign, which the Houthis claimed was in solidarity with Hamas, killed at least nine sailors, sunk four ships and rattled global trade through a corridor that previously handled over $1 trillion in goods annually. Despite their claims of targeting Israeli linked ships, many of the vessels struck had little or no connection to Israel at all. Israel, in turn, launched at least 19 retaliatory strikes on Houthi targets inside Yemen, nearly 1,100 miles away, including attacks that killed rebel commanders. Both the Biden and Trump administrations also carried out U.S. airstrikes this year, hitting what officials described as underground Houthi bunkers and missile sites. The timing of this latest pause appears linked to US Pressure to preserve the Gaza ceasefire. With fighting largely frozen in Gaza, the Houthis, long aligned with Tehran, may see little justification for continuing attacks that risk drawing new Western military responses. Still, the letter reads less like a peace offering than a warning. The group made clear that if Israel resumes operations in Gaza, it will resume its campaign. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Thursday 13th November. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me@pdbhefirsttv.com and if you get a moment, head on over to YouTube to check out and subscribe hopefully to our channel. You can find that again on YouTube at President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike, Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.