The President's Daily Brief – November 20, 2025

Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Podcast: The President's Daily Brief, The First TV

Overview

This episode delivers a concise, 20-minute national security briefing modeled on what the President receives daily. Focusing on global developments with significant implications for U.S. policy and interests, today's show covers:

• U.S. covert contingency planning for Venezuela
• Poland’s accusation of Russian sabotage on its rail network
• MI5’s warning about Chinese espionage via social media in the UK
• Signs of possible U.S.-Russia prisoner exchange talks

Mike Baker provides expert commentary, context, and analysis in a direct, approachable manner.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. U.S. Covert Planning for Venezuela

[02:05–10:47]

• Breaking Developments:

  • President Trump has authorized CIA planning for covert operations targeting Venezuela’s Maduro regime.
  • Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is reportedly considering an exit under certain conditions.
  • Source: New York Times, referencing U.S. and Venezuelan officials aware of discreet talks.

• Clarification of CIA Authority:

  • Mike Baker:

    "This is planning authority, not operational authority. It doesn't mean the CIA is about to deploy teams on the ground tomorrow. But it does mean...build the options, present those options, know what we can do if the president decides to move forward." ([03:45])

  • Emphasizes seriousness—a signal of shifting U.S. posture in the Caribbean.

• Maduro’s Potential Exit:

  • Maduro has "reportedly privately suggested he might be willing to step down," possibly as a delay tactic or in search of guarantees for safety ([05:00]).
  • Quote:

    "Authoritarian leaders don’t typically float exit strategies unless they're feeling real pressure." ([06:07])

  • Venezuela’s worsening economy, U.S. military pressure, and internal instability may be forcing Maduro’s hand.

• U.S. Policy Debate:

  • Hawks argue for leveraging the moment to oust Maduro; others warn of the dangers of deep involvement.
  • Planning via CIA is seen as a flexible, mid-level approach—preparing for rapid change without commitment to military action.

• Role of Venezuelan Military:

  • Baker:

    "If they believe that Maduro is a liability...they could become the decisive force behind the scenes. In past Latin American transitions, it's typically the military that ultimately determines whether a leader stays or goes." ([08:58])

  • Monitoring for actionable U.S. covert planning—pressure on Maduro’s financial networks, more regional coordination, surveillance of security services.

• Information Operations Angle:

  • The leak about Maduro’s potential exit may itself be a psychological play directed at Venezuela’s military leaders.

2. Poland Accuses Russia of Rail Sabotage

[12:34–17:36]

• Incident Recap:

  • Attack on the Warsaw–Lublin rail corridor—critical for transporting aid to Ukraine—confirmed as sabotage using military-grade explosives and other devices ([13:45]).
  • No injuries or derailments occurred.

• Investigation and Suspects:

  • Polish investigators identified two Ukrainian nationals as suspects, linked to Russian secret services, who fled to Belarus ([14:19]).
  • PM Donald Tusk:

    "Those objects, that sabotage was, quote, likely intended to derail a train." ([13:59])

• Significance:

  • This attack is seen as classic "hybrid warfare": the use of proxies to mask the true perpetrator's identity.
  • Poland has raised the threat level for its railways.

• Diplomatic Fallout:

  • Warsaw is expelling the last Russian consulate, with Moscow pledging retaliation.
  • Baker’s commentary:

    "Poland isn’t experiencing an actual war, but a pre-war situation—the classic pattern of hybrid pressure meant to probe defenses and test responses." ([16:59])

3. MI5 Warns of Chinese Espionage via LinkedIn

[17:37–21:13]

• British Security Alert:

  • UK intelligence (MI5) has warned that Chinese state operatives are using LinkedIn and fake recruiting to target parliamentary staff and government insiders.
  • Linked to an earlier, collapsed spying investigation involving Parliament members.

• Methods:

  • Fronts like ‘Amanda Chiu’ (CEO of a Beijing firm) and Shirley Shen (Hong Kong’s Internship Union) act as “recruitment headhunters.”
  • Initial “innocent” contacts escalate to requests for sensitive reports, with targets eventually passed to real CCP handlers.
  • MI5:

    "What could seem like even minor insights can be stitched into Beijing's wider intelligence effort." ([19:41])

• Political Response:

  • The UK government faces criticism for not officially designating China a threat earlier, potentially hampering prosecution.
  • Security Minister Dan Jarvis:

    "[China] has been busy attempting to recruit and cultivate individuals with access to sensitive information about Parliament and the UK Government." ([18:47])

  • The UK is investing in cybersecurity, election protection, and safeguarding academic cooperation.

• Chinese Reaction:

  • Embassy denounces the claims as "pure fabrication and malicious slander.” ([20:53])

4. U.S.–Russia Prisoner Swap Talks

[22:17–End]

• Ongoing Communications:

  • Axios reports on new, exploratory discussions between the U.S. and Russia about a possible prisoner exchange.
  • Talks initiated by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev meeting with U.S. officials in late October.
  • Dmitriev described the tone as “constructive, though he emphasized that no agreement has been reached.” ([22:55])

• Prisoners Involved:

  • At least eight U.S. citizens are detained in Russia: teachers, a musician, a soldier, and dual nationals.
  • Previous successful releases in February (Mark Fogel) and April (Ksenia Karolina) under the Trump administration.
  • Russia seeks return of its nationals convicted of espionage or sanctions violations.

• Significance in U.S.–Russia Relations:

  • Baker:

    "Even during periods of extreme tension, prisoner exchanges have acted as one of the few remaining channels of diplomacy between the two countries." ([24:15])

  • Both sides proceed cautiously; high-profile swaps carry domestic political risk.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Washington’s “Hawkish Advisors”:

  "Washington is chock full of people willing to sign off on a conflict and who themselves couldn't identify the business end of a weapon."
  —Mike Baker ([07:27])

• On Hybrid Warfare:

  "This wasn't a lone wolf or a rogue criminal crew. It was, in Poland's view, a Russian operation carried out using Ukrainian nationals as cutouts, which is textbook hybrid warfare tradecraft."
  —Mike Baker ([15:10])

• On Parliamentary Security in the UK:

  "Jarvis described the campaign as a covert and calculated attempt by a foreign power to interfere with our sovereign affairs."
  —Mike Baker, attributing to Security Minister Dan Jarvis ([19:02])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:05] – U.S.–Venezuela covert action discussion begins
• [05:00] – Maduro’s reported willingness to step down
• [08:58] – The decisive role of the Venezuelan military
• [12:34] – Polish rail sabotage segment starts
• [14:19] – Polish authorities identify suspects
• [17:37] – UK parliamentary LinkedIn espionage warning
• [19:41] – How “minor” insights feed Chinese intelligence
• [22:17] – U.S.–Russia prisoner exchange talks outlined
• [24:15] – Diplomatic significance of prisoner swaps

Conclusion

Today’s episode cuts through the headlines to deliver a briefing-style analysis of key global challenges: U.S. maneuvering around Venezuela, Kremlin-backed sabotage in Poland, Chinese intelligence exploitation of Western openness, and the delicate dance of U.S.–Russia diplomacy.

Mike Baker’s sharp, slightly irreverent tone and expert insights equip listeners with the knowledge to understand and discuss these pressing security issues with confidence.

(For questions or feedback: pdb@thefirsttv.com)