November 21st, 2024: US Embassy Evacuated in Kyiv & China’s Role in Baltic Sea Cable Mystery

Summary

The President's Daily Brief – November 21, 2024

Host: Mike Baker
Episode Title: US Embassy Evacuated in Kyiv & China’s Role in Baltic Sea Cable Mystery
Release Date: November 21, 2024

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1. Closure of the US Embassy in Kyiv

Overview:
In a significant move reflecting escalating tensions between the West and Russia, the United States temporarily closed its embassy in Kyiv. This decision was driven by intelligence reports forecasting a potential large-scale Russian airstrike on the Ukrainian capital.

Key Points:

• Emergency Warning: Embassy staff received urgent intelligence indicating an imminent air attack, prompting preparations to shelter in place if an air alert was triggered.
• European Allies Follow Suit: Italy, Greece, and Spain also evacuated their embassies in Kyiv following the US lead, highlighting the severity of the threat.
• Catalyst: The closure coincided with Ukrainian forces deploying UK-made Storm Shadow missiles into Russian territory, marking a bold escalation in the conflict.

Notable Quote: Mike Baker emphasizes the gravity of the situation:
"In a sign of just how fast tensions between the west and Russia have escalated in recent days, the US temporarily closed the American Embassy in Kyiv on Wednesday, first in more than 1,000 days of fighting since the war broke out in February of 2022."
(Timestamp: 00:30)

Implications:

• Russian Red Line: The potential targeting of the US Embassy signifies a dangerous crossing of thresholds, indicating Russia's readiness to intensify its military actions.
• Ukrainian Response: Ukrainian officials criticized the embassy closure, suggesting that fear tactics may inadvertently benefit Russian strategic objectives.

Additional Insights:
Ukraine's military intelligence (GUR) suggested that the intelligence prompting the embassy closure might be part of a Russian disinformation campaign aimed at psychological intimidation. However, the US State Department confirmed the embassy would reopen the following day, indicating a temporary measure in response to specific threats.

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2. Ukraine's Deployment of Western-Made Storm Shadow Missiles

Overview:
Ukraine has begun utilizing advanced Western weaponry, specifically the British-made Storm Shadow cruise missiles, marking a new phase in its defense strategy against Russian forces.

Key Points:

• First Deployment: Ukrainian forces launched their first salvo of Storm Shadow missiles into Russia, targeting areas such as the partially occupied Kursk region.
• Strategic Impact: These missiles, with a range of approximately 155 miles, are designed to penetrate hardened Russian defenses and disrupt critical military infrastructure.
• Support from Allies: The deployment followed the approval from the White House and NATO allies, highlighting strong international support for Ukraine's defense efforts.

Notable Quote: Mike Baker underscores the strategic significance:
"With a range of roughly 155 miles, the Storm Shadow missiles are said to be a perfect tool for penetrating hardened bunkers and ammunition stores far from Russia's border with Ukraine."
(Timestamp: 09:35)

Implications:

• Deterrence: The use of such long-range missiles may serve to deter further Russian aggression by showcasing Ukraine's enhanced offensive capabilities.
• Negotiation Leverage: Enhanced military prowess could strengthen Ukraine's position in potential negotiations for conflict resolution.

Additional Insights:
Analysts caution that while these missiles enhance Ukraine's defensive and offensive capabilities, they are unlikely to decisively tip the balance in the ongoing conflict. However, their deployment signals a commitment to leveraging international support to sustain Ukraine's resistance.

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3. Sabotage of Undersea Cables in the Baltic Sea: Suspected Chinese Involvement

Overview:
Two critical telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea were severed within a short span, raising suspicions of deliberate sabotage. Danish authorities have zeroed in on a Chinese cargo ship as a potential culprit.

Key Points:

• Incident Details: The cables connecting Sweden to Lithuania and Finland to Germany were damaged late Sunday night and early Monday morning.
• Suspected Vessel: A Chinese bulk carrier, recently docked in Russia and later detected near the damage sites, is under intense scrutiny by Danish naval forces.
• European Reactions: While European leaders, including Germany's defense minister, have condemned Moscow's hybrid activities, they remain cautious in attributing blame directly to Russia.

Notable Quotes: James McComb highlights the investigative focus:
"Authorities in Sweden and Denmark said Wednesday that they are focused on a Chinese bulk carrier vessel currently sitting idle in Danish waters."
(Timestamp: 09:35)

Mike Baker questions the US narrative:
"U.S. Officials contradicted their European counterparts, claiming that the suspected sabotage was in fact just an accident. Oh, it was an accident. Nothing to see here, folks."
(Timestamp: 09:35)

Implications:

• Geopolitical Tensions: The involvement of a Chinese vessel could exacerbate US-China tensions, especially amidst ongoing conflicts involving Russia.
• Infrastructure Security: The targeted sabotage of undersea cables underscores vulnerabilities in global communication networks, prompting calls for enhanced security measures.

Additional Insights:
While US officials downplay the incident as accidental, the proximity of the Chinese ship to the damage site and the pattern of recent hybrid threats suggest a more complex interplay of international sabotage tactics aimed at destabilizing NATO and EU communications infrastructure.

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4. Setback in US-China Military Communications

Overview:
High-level military talks between the United States and China have stalled, as China's Defense Minister Dong Jun declined a meeting with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. This marks the first interruption in such communications in a year.

Key Points:

• Reason for Decline: China cited a recent $2 billion US arms sale to Taiwan, including advanced surface-to-air missile systems, as the primary reason for refusing the meeting.
• Historical Context: Beijing has previously suspended military communications in response to US actions perceived as threats, such as the 2022 spy balloon incident and Nancy Pelosi's 2022 visit to Taiwan.
• Impact on Relations: The refusal signals potential challenges in maintaining open lines of communication, which are crucial for preventing unintended escalations.

Notable Quote: James McComb conveys the skepticism surrounding the official explanation:
"Really? Or the US Officials don't want to escalate the situation by calling out Russia and potentially China for acts of sabotage."
(Timestamp: 09:35)

Mike Baker emphasizes the importance of dialogue:
"In today's world, maintaining some form of open line of communication is critical."
(Timestamp: 09:35)

Implications:

• Diplomatic Strain: The halt in military talks exacerbates existing tensions and hampers efforts to manage regional conflicts peacefully.
• Strategic Maneuvering: China's rejection of the meeting is seen as retaliation against US military support for Taiwan, further complicating US-China relations.

Additional Insights:
Despite the setback, President Biden remains optimistic about ongoing dialogues, asserting that leaders continue to communicate across multiple levels. However, the consistency of military communication remains uncertain, particularly with internal pressures within the Chinese military leadership.

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5. Donald Trump's Appointment of Matt Whitaker as Ambassador to NATO

Overview:
President-elect Donald Trump has appointed former Acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker as the new U.S. Ambassador to NATO. This decision reflects Trump's critical stance on the transatlantic alliance.

Key Points:

• Whitaker's Background: Unlike typical diplomatic appointees, Whitaker comes from a law enforcement background, having served as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Iowa and briefly as Acting Attorney General.
• Trump's Objectives: The appointment aligns with Trump's long-standing demand for NATO allies to increase their defense spending, targeting the alliance's 2% GDP defense expenditure benchmark.
• Impact on NATO: Whitaker is expected to push for greater financial contributions from NATO members, potentially leading to enhanced defense collaborations or negotiations for reduced US burdens.

Notable Quote: Mike Baker outlines Trump's perspective:
"President Elect Donald Trump named former Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker as the ambassador to NATO on Wednesday. That's a move that could be seen as reflecting Trump's longstanding skepticism of the transatlantic alliance."
(Timestamp: 18:23)

Trump praises Whitaker's capabilities:
"Whitaker as a strong warrior and loyal patriot who will stand firm in the face of threats to peace and stability."
(Timestamp: 18:23)

Implications:

• Policy Shifts: Whitaker's appointment may signify a more assertive US stance within NATO, emphasizing financial contributions and strategic commitments from member nations.
• Alliance Dynamics: Increased pressure on NATO allies to meet defense spending targets could either strengthen the alliance through greater investment or create friction among member states with varying economic capabilities.

Additional Insights:
Whitaker's focus on reducing US financial burdens within NATO aligns with Trump's broader "America First" policy, potentially reshaping US engagement in collective defense initiatives. His legal background may also influence the diplomatic approach to alliance negotiations and conflict resolutions.

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Conclusion

Today's episode of The President's Daily Brief delved into critical developments impacting global security and international relations. From the US embassy's strategic closure in Kyiv amidst rising Russian threats to China's suspected involvement in sabotaging Baltic Sea communications infrastructure, the discussions underscored the complex interplay of geopolitical maneuvers shaping the current global landscape. Additionally, the appointment of Matt Whitaker as NATO ambassador signals potential shifts in US-alliance dynamics, emphasizing financial accountability and strategic realignment. These insights offer listeners a comprehensive understanding of the pressing challenges and strategic decisions poised to influence America's role on the world stage.

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For more detailed analyses and daily updates, tune in to the President's Daily Brief hosted by Mike Baker on The First TV.

Transcript

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China relations as Beijing's defense minister refuses to meet with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Hmm. I mean, whose idea was it to close out 2024 with escalating conflict and chaos? It's because it's not a good look. And it says back of the brief, Donald Trump makes another major staffing decision, announcing that former Acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker will serve as U.S. ambassador to NATO. That's a bit of a switch. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. In a sign of just how fast tensions between the west and Russia have escalated in recent days, the US Temporarily closed the American Embassy in Kyiv on Wednesday, first In more than 1,000 days of fighting since the war broke out in February of 2022. And when I say since the war broke out, I mean since Putin invaded Ukraine. The closure came with an emergency warning from embassy personnel who cited intelligence about a potential significant air attack that could imminently strike the Ukrainian capital. Employees were told to prepare to shelter in place in the event an air alert was triggered. That's according to a report from the Washington Post the surprise announcement rattled other European allies as you might imagine, with the Italian, Greek and Spanish embassies in Kyiv all following suit. On Wednesday out of an abundance of caution, the Italian embassy echoed the concerns of US officials warning of a possible high intensity air strike. The intelligence about a possible large scale attack came after Ukrainian forces struck a Russian arms depot on Tuesday employing American made long range missiles in their attack. For the first time, Russia has drawn a red line over the use of long range Western built weapons inside their territory, prompting concerns of course that Moscow may scale up their attacks in response. But the preemptive move to close the US Embassy appears to have irked Ukrainian officials. And when was the last time you heard anyone say irked? Who said the US and other European nations were letting fear cloud their judgment and are playing directly into the hands of Russian despot dictator President for life Putin Ukraine's Foreign Ministry issued a statement noting that airstrikes were a daily reality in Kyiv and urged their allies to keep their cool, quote, without adding to unnecessary informational escalation. Indeed, Kyiv is bombarded by Russian forces on almost a nightly basis. The outsized reaction on Wednesday from American officials fueled speculation that this time the US feared the embassy could be directly targeted. Okay, look, I'm no Secretary of Defense, but if Russia were reckless enough to target the US Embassy in Kyiv, you would have to assume that that's what we call a red line. But Ukraine's military intelligence service, the gur, said that the intelligence prompting the closures has all the signs of being a Russian disinformation campaign. The GUR wrote on telegram quote, this message is a fake. It contains grammatical errors typical for Russian information and psychological operations. The enemy, unable to subjugate Ukrainians by force, resorts to measures of intimidation and psychological pressure on society. A senior adviser to Ukrainian President Zelensky also chimed in noting Moscow has one instrument which is to scare. I would like our partners to be more careful as to the information coming from Russia. Regardless of the veracity of the intelligence, a spokesman for the US State Department said the embassy would reopen and resume normal operations on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military is already leveraging Western built long range weapons to their advantage after getting the green light from the White House and NATO allies earlier this week. According to anonymous military officials in Kyiv, Ukraine fired their first volley of British made Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia on Wednesday following their first use of American made ATACMS missiles on Tuesday. While details of the strike are difficult to verify at this time, Russian telegram channels reported that as many as 12 Storm Shadow missiles were fired into Russia's partially occupied Kursk region. Britain had previously restricted the use of these missiles to targets within Ukrainian territory. But officials have said the arrival of some 10,000 North Korean troops to the battlefields in recent weeks, well, that merited a more concrete response from Western allies of Ukraine. With a range of roughly 155 miles, the storm Shadow missiles are said to be a perfect tool for penetrating hardened bunkers and ammunition stores far from Russia's border with Ukraine. While analysts say the long range weapons are unlikely to give Ukraine a decisive edge over Russia in the conflict, they may help Kyiv solidify their current position, strengthening their hand, of course, if Russia ever agrees to come to the negotiating table. All right, coming up after the break, Denmark monitors a Chinese ship suspected in Baltic Sea cable sabotage. Now, that's not a sentence I've ever said before. And Beijing's defense minister snubs a meeting with the US Secretary of Defense. I'll have those stories when we come back.

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I want to return to our coverage of the suspected sabotage of undersea fiber optic cables earlier this week as European investigators focus on a Chinese cargo ship that was recently docked in Russia. Hmm, maybe there's a clue in there somewhere. As we discussed on yesterday's pdb, two telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea were severed in quick succession late Sunday night and early Monday morning, fueling suspicions that Russia had engaged in a hybrid sabotage operation meant to intimidate Ukraine's NATO allies. One of the cables impacted connects between Sweden and Lithuania, while the other links Finland and Germany. While details of the investigation were initially sparse, authorities in Sweden and Denmark said Wednesday that they are focused on a Chinese bulk carrier vessel currently sitting idle in Danish waters. The Danish navy is currently shadowing the Chinese registered cargo ship, which they said passed directly over the cable Sunday evening into Monday at roughly the same time that the damage occurred. The ship had previously been docked at a port in western Russia. Oh, it's getting more interesting near the border of Estonia on the 15th of November. That's before heading west through the Baltic to the strait between Denmark and Sweden. Sources within Sweden's National Operative Department said while the Chinese vessel is currently of interest, there may be other suspects. Authorities in both countries have deployed vessels to increase their surveillance of the area and said as of Wednesday they had identified nearly 100% of the ships traversing that region at the time of the incident. Authorities in all the affected countries have indicated that they believe the damage was caused deliberately. While Russia has not yet been directly accused of orchestrating the sabotage, European leaders did take the opportunity on Tuesday to condemn what they called Moscow's escalating hybrid activities against NATO and EU countries. Germany's defense minister came the closest to calling out Russia, saying Tuesday that nobody believes that these cables were accidentally cut off. But US Officials contradicted their European counterparts, claiming that the suspected sabotage was in fact just an accident. Oh, it was an accident. Nothing to see here, folks. Two U.S. officials familiar with the initial assessment told CNN that the damage was not a deliberate attack, but likely caused by the anchor of a passing vessel dragging on the seabed. Really? Or the US Officials don't want to escalate the situation by calling out Russia and potentially China for acts of sabotage. If you just ignore their bad behavior or hope and wish hard enough, maybe they'll change their ways. If it was a matter of careless anchor management, then it would seem to be an amazing coincidence. As we noted on yesterday's program, the damage occurred just one week after a senior adviser to Putin baselessly implied that the US And UK were planning to target undersea cables. And a little over a month after US Defense officials warned that Russia was assembling a sabotage unit to target these critical pieces of global communications infrastructure. That's to say nothing of the fact that this supposed accident occurred twice within a 24 hour period. While anchor accidents have occurred in the past, they have never damaged two cables within such a short period of time. The Kremlin, meanwhile, addressed the situation on Wednesday, rejecting speculations that they were involved as laughable and also, quote, absurd. Both laughable and absurd. A spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry also responded, claiming their vessels always abide by international laws and that they are committed to protecting critical seabed infrastructure. Well, okay then, that's, that's good enough for me. Shifting to U. S. China relations High level military talks hit a snag this week as Beijing refused a Pentagon request for a meeting between Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, marking the first such pause in talks in a year. According to a senior American defense official, the Pentagon extended the invitation as part of an ongoing effort to maintain open communication ahead of a summit of Asian defense officials in Laos. However, Beijing declined, pointing to a $2 billion US arms sale to Taiwan in October, which included national advanced surface to air missile systems aimed at countering Chinese threats in the South China Sea. The official expressed skepticism over this explanation for some context, this year alone, the US has provided $1.2 billion in long term security assistance and an additional $567 million in military equipment to Taipei. That's on top of the $2 billion arms sale. China, as I'm sure PDB listeners are fully aware, claims that Taiwan is its own territory. So any nod to self governance or its right to self defense is seen as an affront by Chinese government officials. Beijing used similar grievances to justify suspensions of communication in the past. These included the 2022 spy balloon incident. We all remember that sanctions, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan two years ago. And of course, that visit sparked a complete breakdown in military communications and escalated tensions in the region. While the military meeting was rebuffed, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with President Biden in Peru to discuss broader security concerns. Including Taiwan. This dialogue comes against the backdrop of years of interrupted military communication, with Beijing frequently using cut offs as a diplomatic tool. Notably after Pelosi's 2022 visit, China ramped up its military aggression in the region, leading to a historic summit last November where Xi and Biden agreed to reopen dialogue and de escalate tensions. Since then, US And Chinese officials have held multiple high level meetings, including with China's current defense minister this summer in Singapore. However, Dong's role is viewed as largely symbolic given Beijing's ongoing anti corruption crackdown within the People's Liberation army, which frankly has led to three different defense ministers in as many years. So you could say that Dong may not be long for that position. Despite this, American officials emphasize that maintaining military communications is critical to preventing unintended escalation, even at symbolic levels. Beijing's refusal to meet this week raised concerns about a potential return to broader communication breakdowns. However, President Biden struck an optimistic tone during a press conference earlier this week stating, quote, at multiple levels, our leaders are now regularly talking to one another, end quote. And frankly, in today's world, maintaining some form of open line of communication is critical. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, Donald Trump continues to fill out his administration, announcing his pick for ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, better known as NATO. I'll be right back.

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In today's back of the brief. President Elect Donald Trump named former Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker as the ambassador to NATO on Wednesday. That's a move that could be seen as reflecting Trump's longstanding skepticism of the transatlantic alliance. Whitaker's appointment is noteworthy given his background in law enforcement rather than traditional diplomatic or foreign policy and international security experience. He previously served as U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Iowa under President George W. Bush and briefly as acting attorney general during Trump's first term from November 2018 to February 2019. Though once considered for attorney general, the nomination ultimately, of course, this time around went to Matt Gaetz. In a statement from Trump, he described Whitaker as a strong warrior and loyal patriot who will stand firm in the face of threats to peace and stability. As NATO ambassador, Whitaker is expected to champion Trump's push for increased defense spending among NATO members. Trump has long criticized member nations for failing to meet the alliance's 2% GDP defense spending benchmark. That's a demand he's used to pressure allies into sharing more of the financial burden. Trump's efforts have yielded results, frankly. NATO reports that the number of compliant countries grew from three, only three, in 2014 to 18 in early 2024. Whitaker's role is also expected to influence US policy on NATO's involvement in the Ukraine Russia war. Trump has signaled plans to cut US Aid to Ukraine, insisting that European nations take on more responsibility. He's hinted at prioritizing negotiations to end the conflict, though there are frankly, few details available at this stage. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Thursday, 21st November. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB the first tv.com and of course, as you probably heard from a host of celebrities, to listen to the show ad free. Well, it's simple. Become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting pdbpremium.com there. I told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay co.

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