The President's Daily Brief – November 26, 2025

Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Main Themes: U.S.–Venezuela diplomatic pivot, U.S.–China direct leadership contact, Ukraine peace talks stalemate, Russian drone intrusions into NATO airspace

Episode Overview

In this episode, Mike Baker delivers critical updates from the international stage shaping U.S. policy and global security. The show focuses on President Trump's readiness for direct talks with Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro despite recent hostilities, analyzes a rare direct phone call from China's Xi Jinping to President Trump amidst Taiwan and Ukraine tensions, and details Moscow’s expected rejection of America’s latest Ukraine peace plan. The episode concludes with a report on escalating Russian drone provocations within NATO airspace.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S.–Venezuela: From Confrontation to Direct Talks

[02:00]

• President Trump is signaling openness to direct dialogue with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro despite the recent US designation of Maduro as a terrorist connected to narcotrafficking.
• Behind this shift:
  • U.S. officials confirm diplomacy is taking precedence over military action, though, as one official told Axios, assassinating or snatching Maduro is "not the plan right now" – with the ominous caveat, "I wouldn't say never."
    (Quote, White House Official, 03:35)
• The U.S. has recently escalated targeted maritime strikes against Venezuelan vessels involved in the drug trade, putting pressure on the regime.

[04:15]

• The main reason for the White House’s shift: oil diplomacy.
  • Venezuelan crude oil is "heavy and dirty," but American Gulf Coast refineries are designed for it.
  • Since sanctions, American refiners had to source alternatives at higher costs.
  • Venezuela's oil exports (~1.1 million barrels/day, 80% to China) give Maduro leverage if sanctions are eased.
  • Oil may enable Maduro to "redirect cargoes, sweeten deals, or offer dedicated supply" to the U.S. for political/economic concessions.

[06:00]

• Analysts view the breakthrough less as goodwill than as mutual need:
  • "Each party has something the other wants... President Trump is often characterized as a transactional person."
• U.S. negotiating from "a position of strength" due to Venezuela’s collapsing economy, but specific grades of crude still matter to America.

Next steps to watch:

• White House position on the nature (call, meeting) of Trump-Maduro contact
• Maduro’s readiness for oil-linked concessions
• Any U.S. recalibration of military pressure in the Caribbean

2. U.S.–China: A Rare, High-Level Direct Call

[10:43]

• Chinese President Xi Jinping called President Trump—a rare diplomatic move—to discuss Taiwan and Ukraine.
• The call started with Xi pressing historical claims over Taiwan, referencing post-WWII agreements and warning about Japan’s emerging hardline stance.
  • Chinese state media reported Xi stated, "Taiwan's return to China is an important component of the post-war international order."
• Japan’s prime minister’s recent warnings that Japan would join any fight over Taiwan raised tensions in the region, prompting Xi's urgency.

[12:10]

• Trump redirected the conversation toward Ukraine, but Chinese media spun the call as Taiwan-centric; U.S. readout omitted Taiwan, focusing instead on Ukraine, fentanyl, soybeans, and trade.
  • Trump accepted an invitation to Beijing in April 2026; Xi to reciprocate with a Washington visit.
  • Dispute over who initiated the call: Chinese Foreign Ministry says U.S. did, contradicting U.S. sources.

[13:35]

• The conversation reflects Beijing’s attempt to shape U.S. thinking as America maintains ambiguity on Taiwan defense:
  • Trump: "Showing his hand would undermine his leverage with Xi Jinping."
  • Trump claims Xi privately vowed not to invade Taiwan during his presidency (unverified by Beijing).
• China also signals support for peace in Ukraine, while providing "crucial diplomatic and economic support to Russia since the 2022 invasion."

3. Ukraine Peace Push: Moscow Signals 'No Deal'

[16:30]

• The latest push for Ukraine peace faces possible collapse:
  • U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll recently met negotiators; peace plan slimmed from 28 to 19 points to find consensus.
  • Russia now likely to reject the U.S.-Ukraine rewrite, as it moves away from what the Kremlin believed was agreed in Anchorage with Trump.

[17:45]

• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov wants any deal to reflect the original 28 points, which favored Russian demands.
  • Lavrov warns: if the new version "deviates from the original, there’ll be a problem."
    (Quote, Sergei Lavrov, 18:15)
• Russia may instead use its "familiar disinformation tactics"—issuing vague statements, signing but not implementing deals—rather than outright refusal.
• Trump has accused Putin of "tapping him along," dragging out negotiations as the war grinds on.

[19:30]

• There is skepticism that the 19-point framework would ever satisfy Moscow.
• U.S. concerns grow over leaks and public confusion, with rising fears that Moscow merely seeks to stall for better terms.
• Putin remains unyielding on Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, one of the invasion's root causes.
• Baker’s summary: "The burst of shuttle diplomacy was meant to convert a fragile moment into a breakthrough for peace... but the effort could collapse if Russia decides it has more to gain by stalling than by negotiating in good faith."

4. Russian Drone Incursions: NATO on Edge

[22:48]

• Russia launched a major missile and drone attack against Ukraine, with two drones breaching Romanian (NATO) airspace and triggering air defense alerts in Poland and Bulgaria.
• One drone penetrated deeper into Romanian airspace than ever before; German and Romanian jets were scrambled but refrained from shooting down the drone over civilian areas.
• A Russian drone was found 150 miles inside Romania, the deepest intrusion since the war began.
• Moldova also reported airspace breaches by six Russian drones, one marked with the "Z" symbol.

[24:50]

• These repeat incursions appear aimed at testing NATO's response times and capabilities, "while leaving enough strategic ambiguity to avoid triggering retaliation."
• The attacks coincide with Trump’s renewed push for a Ukraine peace deal, interpreted as Moscow demonstrating consequences if demands aren’t met.
• Bucharest condemns the provocations, marking the 13th breach of Romanian airspace since the war’s start.

Memorable Quotes & Notable Moments

• On U.S.–Venezuela Diplomacy:
  “Nobody is planning to go in and shoot him or snatch him at this point. I wouldn't say never. But that's not the plan right now.” — White House Official to Axios [03:35]
• On China’s Position on Taiwan:
  “Taiwan's return to China is an important component of the post-war international order.” — Xi Jinping, cited in Chinese State Media [11:20]
• On Russia’s Ukraine Peace Stance:
  "The situation will be, quote, fundamentally different from Moscow if the new framework deviates from the original version." — Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister [18:15]
• Host on Russia's Stalling:
  “Trump has repeatedly warned that Putin is trying to drag out the war, accusing the Russian strongman of, quote, tapping him along.” — Mike Baker [19:05]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:00] U.S. signals direct talks with Maduro; shifting strategy on Venezuela
• [04:00] Oil as the central lever in U.S.–Venezuela dealings
• [06:00] Transactional nature of negotiations and possible diplomatic roadmap
• [10:43] Xi Jinping’s direct call to Trump and the Taiwan-Ukraine dialogue
• [13:35] U.S. hedging on Taiwan commitment; China’s support for Russia
• [16:30] The Ukraine peace initiative and likely Russian rejection
• [17:45] Lavrov’s warning and Russia's negotiating tactics
• [19:05] U.S. mistrust of Russian intentions in peace negotiations
• [22:48] Russian drone penetrations into Romanian (NATO) airspace; implications for alliance security
• [24:50] Moldova also reports incursions; strategic context within the Ukraine war

Takeaways

• President Trump’s pivot toward direct diplomacy with Maduro is driven by pragmatic oil needs, not goodwill amidst sustained military pressure.
• Xi Jinping’s proactive engagement signals rising anxiety in Beijing over Taiwan, regional alliances, and global perceptions as Japan hardens its stance; China simultaneously positions itself as a stakeholder in Ukraine peace while supporting Russia.
• The latest U.S. Ukraine peace blueprint faces Russian rejection, with the Kremlin favoring old demands and possibly using diplomatic delay as a weapon.
• Russian drone intrusions into NATO territory highlight an evolving, ambiguous gray-zone pressure campaign as the broader war persists.

Host Final Thought:
"I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool." — Mike Baker