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The President's Daily Brief
October 22nd, 2025: U.S. & Australia Team Up To Disarm China’s Hidden Weapon & Europe Pushes New Peace Plan
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Plus, history made in Japan where voters have elected the country's first female prime minister, known for her nationalist Japan first stance. And in today's Back of the Brief, the European Union finally sets a deadline to cut off Russian gas for good, announcing they'll end imports in 2020. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Regular listeners know that we usually talk about power in kinetic terms here on the PDB weapons intelligence boots on the ground. But one of China's most powerful weapons isn't on the battlefield. It's underground. And now the US And Australia are teaming up to make it less threatening. This week, Washington and Canberra announced a sweeping new deal worth roughly $8.5 billion to start with to try and break China's grip on the global supply of critical rare ear minerals. The plan includes a US Backed gallium refinery in Western Australia, a rare earth oxide facility run by Arafura Rare Earths, and billions more in government financing for mining and processing projects designed to serve defense and tech manufacturers across the West. Officials are calling it a secure minerals corridor, a new allied supply chain that runs from Australia's mines straight into America's defense and manufacturing base. The money is coming from the US Export Import bank and Australia's critical minerals facility, with private investment expected to follow now. For years, Beijing has dominated this market. Currently, China controls nearly 90% of the world's rare earth refining capacity. To give you a bit of context, the US Geological Survey found that in the year 2024, China's mines produced some 270,000 tons of rare earths, and the country has 44 million tons of reserv. By comparison, the US produced 45,000 tons of rare earths and had 1.9 million tons of reserves, while Australia produced 13,000 tons and had 5.7 million tons of reserves. We'll have a test on all that later. China has effectively used that dominance as a geopolitical weapon. In 2010, Beijing cut off exports to Japan during a territorial dispute, and more recently, it has restricted exports of gallium and germanium metals, vital for semiconductors and radar systems. Those moves rattled Washington, of course, and pushed US Allies to start building alternatives. This new deal is the boldest step yet to turn that idea into reality. And the implications are enormous. If successful, the US Australia corridor could give the West a stable China free lifeline for the materials that keep its militaries and economies running. And that means Beijing loses one of its most effective pressure points. And that, of course, would be the point. Think of it this way. Rare earths are the connective tissue of modern they're in every smartphone, computer, electric car and flat screen TV on the planet. Take them away and you don't just lose fighter jets and missiles. You lose your phone, your WI fi, your car, your power grid. Oh no. TikTok. So this isn't just an economic partnership between the US and Australia. It's a strategic countermeasure, a way to disarm Beijing without firing a shot. Now, as you might imagine, China is not expected to take this development quietly. Analysts expect basing to push back, maybe by slashing prices to flood the market, or by locking down even more supply from Africa and Latin America, where Chinese companies already control key mines. Another possibility. Beijing could tighten export permits further, trying to remind Washington and Canberra that it still holds most of the cards, at least for now. But there's a growing sense that the west has momentum. Australia's government says some of the new refineries could be online as early as 2027, with US defense contracts already being launch lined up and markets have noticed shares in Australian companies like Linus and Arafura jumped after the deal was announced. This is part of a broader realignment that we've been watching for some time now. What trade experts call the friend shoring allied nations working together to secure critical industries from microchips to energy and to reduce dependency on China's supply chains. The US has already struck similar deals with Japan and Canada, but this one with Australia may be the most important yet because Australia has the raw resources and the political will to act. Now, just to be clear, this isn't about punishing China. It's about removing a vulnerability. For decades, the west got comfortable with China's dominance in rare earths because, well, because it was cheap and convenient. But over the past several years, it's realized that convenience comes at a strategic cost. So what's next? Well, I'm glad you asked. Expect more joint projects, more government funding, and more tension in the global minerals market. We're watching a new kind of arms race, one fought with supply chains instead of soldiers. And for the first time in a long time, Beijing's monopoly on rare earths looks vulnerable. As one Australian analyst put it, the west is finally digging in. Ah, you see what he did there? Digging in rare earths, minerals mining. Don't forget to tip your waitresses. Coming up next, Europe and Ukraine push a new 12 point peace plan as Moscow refuses to ease off its demands. And Japan makes history with its first female prime minister, a nationalist with a Japan first agenda. We'll have those stories after the break. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of your time to talk about sweat. Oh, you didn't see that coming, did you? Now, let's get real. 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Welcome back to the pdb. The road to peace in Ukraine has narrowed once again as Europe and Kyiv rally behind President Trump's new 12 point plan to halt the war. The Kremlin shows no signs of budging from the hard lines that it drew back in August, according to a Bloomberg news report. The proposal now circulating among Washington and Brussels and Ukraine would freeze the war along existing battle lines and establish a peace port chaired by Trump himself to oversee its implementation. It's a high stakes attempt to create a tenuous ceasefire that could turn into something lasting even as both sides continue to trade artillery and drone strikes. In the framework, both sides would open talks on the governance of the current occupied areas of Ukraine without Europe or Kiev legally recognizing any agreed upon Moscow seized land as Russian territory. In exchange, Ukraine would receive sweeping security guarantees, reconstruction aid and a fast track path to membership into the European Union. For Moscow, economic sanctions would gradually ease, but about 300 billion in central bank reserves would remain frozen until the Kremlin contributes to Ukraine Ukraine's post war rebuilding. If Russia reignites hostilities, the sanctions would automatically be reimposed. The plan also carries a humanitarian component, the return of thousands of deported Ukrainian children to Russia and a large scale prisoner exchange once both sides stop the gunfire. It's an effort by Trump to pair diplomacy with visible relief on the ground. It's, I suppose, a way to show progress, even as trust between Kiev and the Kremlin remains wafer thin. If at that. As we've previously discussed, European capitals pressed Washington to hold firm on the principle of an immediate ceasefire along current front lines, the same position that Trump endorsed after meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky last week. But the diplomatic road ahead, well, it looks steep and windy and bumpy at best. The White House confirmed yesterday that preparations for a second Trump Putin summit, this time in Hungary, have been shelved following the abrupt postponement of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's groundwork meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. When speaking to reporters, Lavrov declared that Russia's conditions for peace, quote, remain unchanged since the Alaska summit from August. He added, quote, I want to officially confirm Russia has not changed its position compared to the understandings that were reached, warning that if the root causes are not addressed, there will be no enduring peace of the kind President Trump seeks, end quote. Those so called root causes, according to the Kremlin, include Ukraine remaining non nuclear and permanently outside NATO legal protections for Russian speaking minorities, and a written Western pledge to halt the alliance's eastward expansion. So for those of you following this process to peace at home, the demands haven't softened. In fact, it's quite the opposite, alongside new pressure for Kyiv to cede additional territory in Donetsk and Luhansk, redlines that Ukraine has repeatedly rejected. Still, Trump insists he's committed to ending the war, though he admits the challenge of brokering a deal is a tough one. That's putting it diplomatically. He likened his latest effort to his past peace achievements, saying it's proved more difficult than Gaza or India Pakistan, but vowed that peace will come and soon. However, frankly, that optimism continues to feel increasingly strained. All right, turning to Japan, the political ground has shifted in a way that few saw coming. Sana A. Takaichi, a hardline conservative and longtime ally of the late Shinzo Abe, has been elected prime minister, becoming the country's first female leader at a moment of uncertainty in the Pacific. Her rise comes after the stunning collapse of her predecessor's government, undone by election losses so severe they rattled the foundations of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party. For a party that dominated post war politics for generations, it was an earthquake. The loss triggered an opposition effort to rally. But in a rare show of unity across party lines, the right wing Japan Innovation Party backed Takaichi, tipping the scales and sealing her path to power. But the victory was bittersweet. Take is Japan's fourth prime minister in five years and the first to lead a minority government in decades. That alone would be historic. But what comes next will be more defining. She'll face her first test almost immediately. President Trump lands in Tokyo next week, just days after her inauguration, setting the stage for a diplomatic trial by fire that could shape the future of a US Japan alliance. When Trump touches down, the agenda will be loaded. A $550 billion investment package tied to the new deal, debates over Japan's share of US Troop costs and the rising threat from an emboldened China and a restless North Korea. It's a familiar script. Security, trade and the politics of burden sharing. But this time, a new player has emerged as a protege of Abe. Takechi's brand of nationalism runs deep. Her Japan first vision mirrors Trump's America first movement, bold and laser focused on sovereignty. On the campaign trail, she vowed Japan would no longer apologize for defending its interests, a line that electrified the country's conservatives. That hawkish energy could help her connect with Trump or clash with him. Washington insiders say Trump will push Tokyo to pay more for US Forces stationed in Japan, reviving an old fault line in the alliance, one that has tested just how much Japan's security is worth and who should foot the bill. For Takaichi, it's a political tightrope. Her instincts align with Trump's call for self reliance. But her minority government and Japan's fiscal strain could limit how far she can follow through. Still, she's made her intentions clear. Expect higher defense spending, a tougher stance on China's maritime provocations, and a readiness to confront North Korea's missile tests. Yet at home, she must navigate deep public unease over remilitarization, a debate that's haunted every Japanese leader, frankly, since the end of World War II. On trade as well, she's treading carefully. The firebrand who once blasted the U. S. Japan deal as too one sided now sounds more pragmatic. Sources say she has no plans to reopen talks, preferring to stabilize the alliance and shield Japan's manufacturing base from American tariff pressure. With Trump's visit just days away, take his ability to balance Japan first nationalism with the realities of an alliance first foreign policy will define her premiership and reveal whether she can turn her historic first into a lasting shift for Japan's place in the Pacific. All right, coming up in the back of the brief. After years of dependence, Europe vows to quit Russian gas by 2028. It's been so hard to quit. A move many say is years overdue. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a great offer from our friends over at Birch Gold Group. Now you can buy gold and get free silver, right about that. Come on. That's right. For every $5,000 purchased from Birch Gold Group this month in advance of Veterans Day, they'll send you a free Patriotic Silver round that commemorates the Gadsden and American flags. 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Massachusetts in today's back of the brief. After nearly three years of war in Ukraine, Europe is finally cutting the cord from Moscow. EU energy ministers have agreed to a plan to completely end imports of Russian natural gas by 1 January 2028. The measure lays out a step by step phase out no new contracts starting in 2026, short term deals ending that June, and all long term agreements expiring by the start of 2028. On paper, this marks one of the strongest collective actions the European Union has taken against Moscow since the invasion began. But critics say the timeline shows just how dependent the continent still is on Russian energy and how difficult it will be to unwind that relationship entirely. Before the war, Russia supplied about 40% of the EU's gas imports, powering industries from Germany to Italy. That figure plummeted after the invasion as the Kremlin weaponized energy shipments, cutting off flows through key pipelines and sending prices across Europe skyrocketing. The shock forced governments to scramble for alternatives, restarting coal plants, signing emergency deals with the U.S. qatar and Norway, and accelerating investment in renewables. Now Brussels is framing the 2028 cutoff as a final step in breaking free from Moscow's energy grip. EU officials say it's about both economic and political security, removing one of Vladimir Putin's last major pressure points over the continent. Still, some member states remain uneasy. Countries in Central and Eastern Europe, where infrastructure for liquefied natural gas remains limited, warn the transition could drive up costs and risk future shortages. Others argue the deadline is far too late, noting that Europe continues to funnel billions of euros each year to Russia through remaining gas purchases, money that ultimately, of course, helps helps fund the Putin war effort. So while Brussels is patting itself on the back for finally setting a date, many analysts say the real question isn't whether Europe can end Russian gas by 2028, it's whether it should have done so years ago. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily brief for Wednesday, 22 October. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, reach out to me at PDB the first tv.com and if you like the show and you want to support what we do, well, consider becoming a Premium member. It's very easy to you'll get every episode ad free. Just visit PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.