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The President's Daily Brief
October 24th, 2025: China Pulls the Plug on Russian Oil & Europe Bankrolls Ukraine
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Prime Minister Netanyahu is putting west bank annexation plans on hold after Vice President J.D. vance publicly rebuked the move. Plus, Ukraine gets an economic lifeline. The European Union has agreed to bankroll Kyiv for the next two years and is now weighing whether to tap into Russia's frozen assets to help pay for it. And in today's back of the brief, Israel hits Hezbollah. Air force jets carried out strikes on a training camp and missile production site in Lebanon's Becca region. That's a cross Border clashes intensify over the past few weeks. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. China's four biggest state owned oil companies have stopped buying Russian crude shipped by sea, reportedly, according to new reporting from Reuters. The suspension came after President Trump's administration leveled sweeping sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's two largest oil companies. These are the same firms that provide the backbone of the Kremlin's export revenue, the cash that of course, keeps its war machine humming along. So you ask yourself, why does this matter? Well, because China and India are far and away Russia's two biggest oil customers. If both start cutting back, Moscow's single most important source of foreign income takes a direct hit. For months, Washington has been tightening the screws on Russia's energy sector. But this week, the US Went further than ever before, blacklisting Rosneft and Lukoil, effectively cutting them off from most of the world's shipping, banking and insurance systems. That move made it almost impossible for legitimate buyers to keep doing business with Moscow without risking their own access to Western markets. Apparently, Beijing took notice. Now, according to Reuters, China's national oil giants have reportedly paused all seaborne imports of Russian crude, at least for the short term, because they're worried about getting caught up in the US Sanctions net. To put this in perspective, China normally buys around 1.4 million barrels of Russian oil every day by sea. State owned firms account for a fraction of that total, somewhere between a quarter million and a half million barrels per day. But they set the tone for the rest of the market. When they stop buying, the smaller players tend to follow. Independent Chinese refiners, often called teapots, are reportedly taking a step back as well, waiting to see how the sanctions shake out before resuming purchases. Meanwhile, India, the other big lifeline for Russian crude, is expected to sharply reduce its imports as well. Together, those two countries have kept Russia's oil industry afloat since Western buyers pulled out early in the Ukraine war. If both step away, even temporarily, the impact could be enormous. Analysts estimate that losing Chinese and Indian demand could cost Moscow billions in lost revenue and drive up prices globally as buyers turn to oil from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America instead. Now, obviously, this isn't sitting well. In Moscow, there's a surprise. The Kremlin was quick to lash out at the US Move, calling it economic warfare as opposed to actual warfare, which, of course, is what Putin is waging. Former Russian President Dimitri Medvedev, always, always ready, with a dramatic turn of phrase, blasted President Trump saying, quote, the U.S. is our adversary and its verbose peacemaker is now firmly on the warpath against Russia, end quote. Come on, lighten up, Francis. Russian officials say the sanctions are aimed at destabilizing global energy markets, not just punishing Russia. But privately, Western analysts say this strikes right at the heart of Putin's war funding mechanism. Rosneft and Lukoil together produce about half of all Russian oil. Cutting them off, even partially, means cutting into the cash that pays for weapons and soldiers and subsidies at home. To make matters worse for Putin, Europe piled on. Within hours of Washington's announcement, the European Union approved its own round of sanctions targeting Russian natural gas, certain LNG cargoes and additional parts of Moscow's so called shadow fleet. That's the network of tankers used to dodge restrictions. The EU also moved to limit cryptocurrency channels that Russia has used to move money across borders. The US and Europe appear to be acting in lockstep this time around and for once, Beijing isn't rushing to Moscow's rescue. It's worth noting that pipeline deliveries from Russia to China, it's roughly 900,000 barrels a day, are still flowing. Those are less exposed to sanctions and handled through state to state agreements. But even if those continue, the loss of seaborne sales cuts into Russia's flexibility. It limits how much crude it can redirect around the world when traditional buyers pull out. Bottom line, this is the sharpest economic shock that Moscow has felt since the early days of the Ukraine war. And it's coming not from bombs or battlefield losses, but from the combined weight of Western sanctions and China's growing caution for Putin, whose economy depends on energy exports for roughly a third of its federal budget. Well, that's a serious problem and it could turn out to be one of the most effective blows yet to the Kremlin's ability to fund its war. Alright, coming up next, Netanyahu hits pause on west bank annexation after US Backlash and Europe moves to bankroll Ukraine using Russia's frozen assets. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, you've probably noticed, but fall is here. Some people call it autumn, fancy people call it autumn. 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Your ratings are very good and I want to congratulate you. Welcome back to the pdb. In a move that blindsided Washington, Israel's parliament advanced two west bank annexation bills, only for Prime Minister Netanyahu to hit the brakes after Vice President J.D. vance called the vote insulting and out of line with President Trump's peace plan. For context, the legislation would have extended Israeli law into the west bank territory reserved for the possibility of a future Palestinian state. Just a week after the Trump White House brokered the ceasefire that stop the war in Gaza, the Knesset's move caught Washington off guard. The vote wasn't just a political jab. It seemed more like a provocation. Advance clearly wasn't pleased. Standing before reporters in Jerusalem, he said, quote, if it was a political stunt, it was a very stupid one and I personally take some insult to it. Vance made it plain this wasn't a debate or diplomatic nuance. It was policy. He said, quote, the policy of President Trump is that the west bank will not be annexed. This will always be our policy. End quote. By the next morning, the damage control was underway. Netanyahu's coalition chief confirmed that the prime minister ordered the bills frozen, calling the vote a deliberate political provocation meant to embarrass the government during Vance's visit. But in Washington, frustration was already spilling over. According to Israel's Channel 12, an unnamed US official fumed. Oh, he was fuming that Netanyahu is walking a fine line with Trump. Quote, oh, and by the way, if kids are listening, ear muffs. The official said. If he keeps going, he'll fuck up the Gaza deal. And if he up the Gaza deal, Donald Trump will him, end quote. So it seems like there's no shortage of fucks to give. Okay, you can Take the air. Mouths off now, kids. The remarks summed up the mood inside the administration, exasperation with Jerusalem's political theatrics and genuine concern that the Knesset might unravel months of US Brokered diplomacy. As the fallout went on, it was Secretary of State Marco Rubio's turn to touch down in the Jewish state. He arrived to reaffirm Washington's support for Trump's ceasefire and to remind Israeli politicians that the bigger prize of regional peace is still within reach if they stay disciplined. Rubio told reporters that any plan to extend Israeli sovereignty over the Palestinian territory is potentially threatening for the peace deal, adding that while Israel has every democratic right to debate, he said, at this time, it's something that we think might be counterproductive. The Secretary of State, standing beside Netanyahu told reporters, quote, we want to advance peace. Trump himself left no ambiguity regarding the possible Israeli west bank annexation. In an interview with Time magazine, quote, he said, it won't happen because I gave my word to the Arab countries. Israel would lose all its support from the U.S. if that happened, end quote. Inside Israel, well, the political chaos was immediate. Netanyahu urged his party members to delay or abstain from the annexation vote, prompting a shouting match on the Knesset floor. Meanwhile, across the Arab world, more than a dozen governments issued a joint statement condemning Israel's legislation push as a blatant violation of international law. Despite his push for peace, Trump's patience does appear to have limits, and this is one of them. He hinted that US Policy toward Palestinian leadership could soon shift if Jerusalem continues to defy his 20 point peace plan. In that same time interview, the President revealed he's weighing whether to back the release of jailed Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti, imprisoned for his orchestration of attacks during the second Intifada. As Washington aims to fill a leadership vacuum in Gaza, Trump said, quote, I am literally being confronted with that question, so I'll be making a decision soon, okay? Shifting to Europe. A breakthrough came in Brussels as European Union leaders clinched a deal to Bankroll Ukraine through 2027. It's a hard fought agreement that nearly collapsed after Belgium threatened to block the use of frozen Russian assets. EU Council President Antonio Kosta, standing beside Ukrainian President Zelensky, called it a political decision, one meant to carry Kyiv through the next two years of war. The details, he said, are now mostly technical. How to turn profits from $160 billion in immobilized Russian assets into a lifeline for Ukraine. A majority of that money sits in Belgium's Euroclear depository system, which suddenly puts Brussels at the center of a global financial experiment using frozen Russian funds to bankroll a war effort against Moscow itself. But that's where things get messy. Oh, is that where they get messy? Belgium's prime minister wasn't ready to sign off without guarantees that his country wouldn't be left holding the bag if Russia fought back in court. He made that clear the moment he arrived at the summit, warning that if those concerns weren't addressed, he would do everything in his power, both politically and legally, to stop the deal. Zelensky, appearing at the summit as a guest, attempted to strong arm Europe to move faster, calling the use of Russian assets both a moral and strategic necessity. The Ukrainian leader said, quote, anyone who delays the decision on the full use of frozen Russian assets is not only limiting our defense, but also slowing down EU's own progress. As for the agreement itself, it will operate as a reparations loan, drawing on the profits of frozen Russian assets held across Europe since the 2022 Invas. The European Commission is now tasked with hammering out the legal framework, turning yesterday's political consensus into something enforceable. For Costa and his fellow leaders, the next challenge isn't just drafting paperwork. It's holding the coalition together long enough to make it real. Across the Atlantic, Washington is moving in parallel. As we've been tracking. President Trump days earlier shelved plans for a second summit with Russian President Putin in Budapest with the aim of securing a ceasefire, saying that he didn't want another wasted meeting. His rhetoric came after preliminary discussions for a groundwork meeting failed to gain traction after the Kremlin repeated its demand that Kyiv withdraw from the Donbass region. That's a non starter for Zelensky. Instead, the Trump administration rolled out new sanctions targeting Russia's state oil giants designed to drain the Putin regime's wartime revenues. The EU followed suit, unveiling its 19th sanctions package, this one including a 2027 ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports and new restrictions on Moscow's shadow tanker fleet. Despite the overall progress, the bloc isn't entirely united on what comes next. Some member states want every euro from the frozen assets funneled into European made weapons. Others argue Ukraine should have more flexibility to buy US arms, patch its national budget or prepare for reconstruction. The commission's current compromise would steer most funds toward Ukrainian and European defense procurement, leaving a smaller share for non EU suppliers and budgetary support. The Kremlin, meanwhile, labeled the plan as blatant theft and warrant of retaliation, saying it violates international law. Well, then Again, so does invading a foreign nation. But for EU leaders, the decision represents a milestone. A united front, however fragile, to sustain Ukraine for two years, even as war fatigue tests the bloc's resolve. Alright, coming up in the back of the brief, the Israeli Air Force renews strikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon's Becca Valley, targeting a training base and missile production facility. More on that when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you know, before Ridge Wallets came along, I carried this giant worn out leather brick of a wallet in my back pocket. You know what I'm talking about, right? It was bulky, uneven. Honestly, a pain, literally. Switching to Ridge completely changed the game. Their wallets are slim, they're modern and tough enough to hold up to 12 cards, plus cash if anybody carries cash anymore. Made from premium materials like aluminum, titanium and carbon fiber, They've got over 50 colors and styles, which means you can pick one out that actually fits your personality. 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In today's Back of the brief. With the fragile ceasefire in Gaza still holding, Israel is Training its sights back on Hezbollah On Thursday, the Israel Defense Forces, the IDF unleashed a torrent of airstrikes across northern and southern Lebanon against the Iranian backed militant group. Acting on intelligence from Israel's Military Intelligence Directorate, the IDF struck multiple targets in southern Lebanon's Becca Valley region near the border with Syria, including an active training compound being used to plan future attacks against the Jewish state. That's according to a report from the Jerusalem Post. Officials with the IDF said they had identified known terrorist operatives at the compound who were being trained to shoot and use various weapons. The IDF also struck a second target in the Bekka region that was reportedly being used to produce precision missile. Additional terrorist infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah was targeted in northern Lebanon, though the details on those strikes is not yet clear. In a statement, the IDF said the storage of weapons, the presence of terror infrastructure sites and conduct of military training against the State of Israel by Hezbollah terrorists constitute a blatant violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon and pose a threat to the State of Israel. The IDF will continue to operate to eliminate any threat, end quote. Thursday's operation followed a targeted strike in southern Lebanon on Wednesday that killed a platoon commander in Hezbollah's elite Radwan force, a man who had reportedly played a key role in facilitating the smuggling of weapons into Lebanon. The IDF said the commander's activities had also constituted a violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon. As a brief reminder, after more than a year of fighting following Hamas 7 October attacks, Israel and Lebanon signed a ceasefire deal in November of 2024 that in theory require Hezbollah to withdraw its fighters and weapons north of the Latani river. That's roughly 18 miles from Israel's border. But since that time, Israel has regularly identified efforts by Hezbollah to rebuild their terrorist infrastructure south of the river, prompting repeated rounds of airstrikes and ground raids. While the ceasefire agreement is still in place, Israel is clearly losing patience with the Lebanese government, which appears unable to to enforce the commitments made under the ceasefire. Hezbollah, meanwhile, has repeatedly rejected calls by members of the Lebanese government to disarm. One of the group's leaders warned in late July that Hezbollah was rebuilding, recovering and ready now to once again take on Israel. According to local news reports, senior foreign political and security officials have warned the Lebanese government in recent days that tensions between Israel and Hezbollah are at a critical and very dangerous junction and that, quote, israel will not sit idly by for long in the face of failure. And that, my friends, is the President's daily brief for Friday 24th October. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and of course, it's Friday. Once again, well done on making it through another week, and as a reward, we'll be launching a brand new episode of our extended weekend show, the PDB Situation Report this evening at 10pm on the first TV. And as always, you can catch the latest episode and past episodes on our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief, as well as podcast platforms all over podcast land. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.