The President's Daily Brief: PDB Afternoon Bulletin | April 11th, 2025

Hosted by Mike Baker

1. Escalation and De-escalation in the US-China Trade War

Tariff Retaliation and Signals of Peace

On April 11th, 2025, the ongoing trade war between the United States and China took a significant turn. China's Finance Ministry announced an increase in tariffs on U.S. goods from 84% to 125%, directly matching President Trump's previous levy imposed on Wednesday. This move affects approximately $144 billion worth of U.S. exports, particularly targeting agricultural products like soybeans.

Mike Baker highlights, “[00:50] Chinese officials signaled that the recent tariff hike might be their last escalation, dismissing any further increases by the Trump administration as a ‘joke’ that they plan to ignore.” This statement suggests a potential cooling in the tit-for-tat exchanges that have characterized the trade tensions.

President Trump's Stance and Economic Concerns

Earlier in the week, President Trump elevated tariffs on China—America’s third-largest trading partner—to 145%, surpassing the standard 20% duty imposed earlier due to China’s involvement in the illicit fentanyl trade. Baker notes, “[02:00] Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy aims to pressure China into negotiating new trade deals, although it has raised concerns among economists about the broader economic implications.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping responded publicly, “[04:15] ‘There are no winners in a trade war,’ urging the U.S. to abandon confrontational trade policies. He also appealed to the European Union to join China in opposing unilateral acts of economic aggression.”

Economic Implications and Market Reactions

The sharp escalation has rattled global markets. Baker reports, “[06:30] U.S. stocks experienced volatility, plummeting on Thursday after a historic rally on Wednesday and only stabilizing by Friday. Investor confidence remains uncertain, with notable figures like Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warning of a potential economic slowdown or even the early stages of a recession.”

Economists express concern over China's economic vulnerability due to a debt bubble, high unemployment rates, and low consumer spending. This economic strain likely contributes to China's reluctance to further escalate the trade conflict, as continued tensions could exacerbate these issues.

2. Bombshell Report: CCP's Involvement in Cyberattacks on U.S. Infrastructure

Revelations from the Wall Street Journal

In a groundbreaking report, the Wall Street Journal disclosed that Chinese officials acknowledged their government's involvement in extensive cyberattacks targeting critical U.S. infrastructure. Mike Baker elaborates, “[09:30] An exclusive report revealed that during a secret meeting in Geneva last December, Chinese officials implicitly confirmed their role in cyber operations against U.S. ports, water treatment facilities, airports, and other strategic sites.”

Details of the Cyber Campaign

The cyberattacks are attributed to a Chinese-based hacking group known as Vault Typhoon, which the CCP officially denies, labeling them as a "rogue criminal outfit." Despite official denials, Vault Typhoon has been linked to numerous breaches since mid-2021, employing sophisticated botnets to infiltrate and disrupt critical systems. Baker explains, “[11:10] These operations involved commandeering thousands of vulnerable digital devices, including routers, modems, and even internet-connected security cameras, to execute coordinated attacks.”

Strategic Motives and Geopolitical Implications

The cyber campaigns appear to be a strategic response to increasing U.S. support for Taiwan, aiming to intimidate and deter further American involvement in the region. Mike Baker states, “[13:45] ‘China wants U.S. officials to know that yes, they do have this capability and they are willing to use it,’ as cited by a China expert from Sentinel One.” This assertion underscores China’s intent to showcase its cyber warfare capabilities amidst rising geopolitical tensions.

Responses from U.S. and Chinese Officials

The U.S. State Department labeled Chinese cyber threats as some of the most "grave and persistent threats to US national security," committing to safeguarding critical infrastructure against such attacks. In contrast, the Chinese Embassy vehemently denied any involvement, calling the reports "smear attacks without any factual basis."

Baker reports, “[16:20] The exact motives behind the Chinese officials’ implicit admission remain unclear. Analysts suggest it was a strategic message to the incoming Trump administration regarding potential conflicts over Taiwan.”

Conclusion

The April 11th, 2025 episode of The President's Daily Brief delves into the escalating complexities of U.S.-China relations. While China’s recent tariff hike marks a significant retaliation in the trade war, their indications of ceasing further escalations suggest a potential shift towards de-escalation, influenced by internal economic pressures. Concurrently, the revelation of the CCP’s involvement in cyberattacks against U.S. infrastructure highlights the multifaceted nature of modern geopolitical conflicts, blending economic and cyber warfare tactics. These developments underscore the fragile balance of power and the intricate interplay between economic policies and national security in shaping international relations.

Notable Quotes:

• “[00:50] Chinese officials signaled that the recent tariff hike might be their last escalation, dismissing any further increases by the Trump administration as a ‘joke’ that they plan to ignore.”

• “[04:15] ‘There are no winners in a trade war,’ urging the U.S. to abandon confrontational trade policies.”

• “[09:30] An exclusive report revealed that during a secret meeting in Geneva last December, Chinese officials implicitly confirmed their role in cyber operations against U.S. ports, water treatment facilities, airports, and other strategic sites.”

• “[16:20] The exact motives behind the Chinese officials’ implicit admission remain unclear. Analysts suggest it was a strategic message to the incoming Trump administration regarding potential conflicts over Taiwan.”

For more detailed analyses and updates, listeners are encouraged to reach out to Mike Baker at pdb@thefirsttv.com.