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PDB Afternoon Bulletin | April 14th, 2026: Why The Blockade Could Cripple Tehran & Chaos Continues In Haiti
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It's Tuesday the 14th of April. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the US Launches a full scale blockade of Iranian ports, targeting the one thing that the regime can't afford to lose. That, of course, would be its oil revenues. I'll have the details later in the show. An update on the chaotic and sad situation in Haiti, where international stabilization efforts are underway again, but gang violence shows no signs of slowing. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. The US Blockade of Iranian ports is now officially underway. And this afternoon I wanted to go through some of the reasons why this could be the moment that the economic pressure on Tehran finally creates significant change. This blockade is a direct attack on the single most important vulnerability in Iran's economy, it its oil. Now we should start with a fact that that could surprise you. Despite weeks of war, Iran was actually making more money. Before the conflict began, Tehran was bringing in roughly $3.4 billion a month from oil exports. But over the past month, that number jumped to nearly 5 billion. Because while Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz to most of the world, it kept its own exports flowing, all the while charging fees to the few tankers allowed to pass, controlling traffic and cashing in on higher global prices. In other words, Iran weaponized the Strait and profited from it. But now, well, now the blockade flips that script. Roughly 80% of Iran's oil exports move through the Strait of Hormuz. With US Naval forces now blocking traffic in and out of Iranian ports, that flow is under serious threat. Analysts say Tehran simply won't be able to export anywhere near the same levels and their revenue stream could dry up quickly. Now Iran does have some cushion. There are millions of barrels of crude sitting in what are essentially floating storage tanks, tankers parked offshore. But that is a temporary fix because within 10, 14 days, Iran could run out of places to store its oil. And oil production doesn't just stop cleanly. It if you shut down wells because you're out of storage, well, you risk damaging them, sometimes permanently. That means even after this conflict ends, Iran's ability to produce oil could be degraded for the long term. So it's not just about short term losses. It could leave lasting scars on the backbone of Iran's economy. And the pain doesn't stop there. Iran exports crude oil, but it also imports refined fuel like gasoline and diesel. It doesn't have enough domestic refining capacity to meet its own needs. So if this blockade holds, Tehran isn't just losing revenue. It could start running low on fuel inside the country. And that's when economic pressure turns into real domestic strain. And as we know from the most recent protests, where the regime ended up slaughtering thousands of its own citizens, the population of Iran is already under severe economic strain. On top of that, the blockade threatens Iran's broader trade network. Everything from petrochemicals to agricultural goods moves through those ports, while imports like machinery, electronics and even food could be disrupted. In an economy already strained by sanctions, that raises the risk of shortages and rising prices at home, which of course further inflames the population. Now you ask, maybe don't ask, but I'll ask questions. Could Iran find a workaround? There are a few options, but none of them are particularly good. There is the so called ghost fleet tankers that turn off their tracking systems to slip past sanctions. And there's a rail link to China through Central Asia. But moving oil by rail at scale is extremely difficult and expensive. And there's no real evidence that it could happen in any meaningful way. And that brings us to the wildcard in all of this, which of course would be China. Nearly all of the Iranian oil currently sitting on tankers at sea is headed for China. In Beijing, well, they're unlikely to simply go along with the US naval blockade. the same time, it is hard to imagine the US Navy seizing or sinking those ships meant for China without triggering a larger escalation. Now, despite the rising tensions, threats of further military action, and continued aggressive posturing from Iran, there are signs, faint as they may be, that diplomatic channels aren't completely shut off. According to new reporting, U.S. and Iranian negotiators could return to the table as early as this week, with talks potentially resuming in Pakistan. Oil markets seem to be taking that seriously, or at least grasping onto it seriously. Prices dipped below $100 a barrel amid hopes that some kind of agreement is still possible. President Trump says Iran wants a deal. Vice President Vance says the next move is up to Tehran. The blockade is designed to force Iran to negotiate in something resembling good faith. The question is whether the blockade's pressure brings them back to the table. Alright. Coming up next, a story that doesn't receive enough international attention. We turn our focus to Haiti, where gangs still control large parts of the country even as additional international forces arrive. I'll be right back.
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Welcome back to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Haiti's security crisis is showing no signs of stabilizing as gang violence in the Caribbean country continues to grow despite the arrival of a new UN Backed gang suppression force. Now, to understand just how serious this situation is, you have to look at what unfolded just days before those first international troops even touched down. In the early hours of Sunday morning, fighters from the Grand Griff gang launched a coordinated assault north of the capital, Port au Prince. According to preliminary reporting, residents were pulled from their homes, gathered in courtyards and in the streets, and executed. Others were abducted. Some were burned to death. By the time it was over, dozens were dead with estimates ranging anywhere from about 40 to 70 people, all in an effort for a gang to expand its territorial control. And what stands out here isn't just the brutality of it all. It's what it tells you about authority on the ground. Because Haitian police didn't immediately respond because they couldn't, gangs had blocked the roads leading into the area, cutting off access and buying themselves time for their violence. Even when officers eventually made it in, they weren't able to hold the ground. Once police pulled back, the attackers came right back in, setting homes ablaze and effectively cementing their control. When we talk about an international force arriving to stabilize Haiti, this is the environment that they're stepping into, one where gangs dictate the reality on the ground. So what exactly is this new force and what is it supposed to do differently from the earlier Kenyan led attempt at an international police force? What's being deployed is the Gang Suppression Force, or gsf, a newly formed UN Backed mission. Starting with an advanced contingent from Chad. The GSF confirmed in a statement that they're being led by Jack Crystal Feeds, a former UN Official from South Africa who is expected to oversee the mission. And I want to point out that UN Officials haven't released many details beyond that initial deployment, which tells you that this is still in the very early stages. Now, the idea behind this force is straightforward. It was first proposed by the US and Panama as a way to, quote, neutralize, isolate and deter Haiti's gangs. But the key difference this time is command. Unlike the Kenyan led mission that it's replacing, which was largely limited to supporting local police, the GSF will be empowered to make arrests. And that shift alone tells you how much the situation has deteriorated because the previous mission struggled. As we discussed here on the PDB, that Kenyan mission launched back in 2023 with the goal of stabilizing the Caribbean country. But it was held back by limited manpower, funding shortfalls and a mandate that didn't allow it to confront gangs in a meaningful way. What we saw instead was a force that never quite matched the scale of the problem that it was facing. This new effort is supposed to change that. The plan is to build the force up to roughly 5,500 personnel with a 12 month mandate approved by the UN Security Council. But even that rollout comes with complications. That would be Haiti's long and troubled history with foreign intervention. After the 2010 earthquake, a cholera outbreak linked to UN peacekeepers killed roughly 10,000 people. There have also been repeated allegations of sexual assault involving UN personnel over the years. And those incidents still shape how many Haitians view outside intervention today. So even before you get to the operational challenges, there's already a trust deficit. And then there's the timing. Because while this new force is just beginning to arrive and it won't reach full strength for months, likely not until the fall. Currently, as much as 90% of Port au Prince is under gang control, with roughly two dozen armed groups operating across the capital. According to UN data, at least 5,500 people were killed in gang related violence between March 2025 and mid January of this year, with nearly 6,000 deaths recorded last year alone. What we're seeing now isn't just a continuing security crisis. It's the result of of a failed state that's lost its ability to govern effectively. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Tuesday 14 April. If you have any questions or comments,
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please reach out to me at pdb@the
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firsttv.com and of course to listen to the show ad free.
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That is perfectly doable.
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Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here Now, if you're
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