PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 10th, 2024: Syria's Al-Golani: Terrorist or Liberator? & China's Escalating War Games Against Taiwan

Summary

The President's Daily Brief: Afternoon Bulletin Summary | December 10th, 2024

Hosted by Mike Baker from The First TV

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Introduction

In the December 10th, 2024 episode of The President's Daily Brief (PDB Afternoon Bulletin), host Mike Baker delves into two critical international issues: the evolving political landscape in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime, and the escalating military tensions between China and Taiwan. This summary captures the key discussions, insights, and conclusions presented in the 20-minute briefing, providing a comprehensive overview for those who haven't tuned in.

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Syria's Al-Golani: Terrorist or Liberator?

Background and Leadership Changes

Following the rapid overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, the rebel leadership has appointed a new interim prime minister, Muhammad Al Bashir, formerly the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib province. This move aims to prevent a power vacuum and stabilize the transition towards a new government. Mike Baker (00:00) highlights the urgency and complexity surrounding this leadership change:

"Debate is raging in Washington, D.C. over whether the Islamist rebel insurgents will break from their radical past."

HTS's Transformation and Terrorism Designation

HTS, originally an offshoot of Al Qaeda known as the Nusra Front, has undergone significant transformation under its leader, Abu Muhammad Al Jolani. The group has rebranded itself as a moderating force aiming for a pluralistic government in Syria. Baker outlines HTS’s controversial shift:

"He rebranded his organization as HTS in 2016 and framed it as a salvation government rooted in the values of pluralism and tolerance."

Despite these efforts, HTS remains a U.S.-designated terrorist organization (00:00). The core debate centers on whether HTS's rebranding signifies a genuine shift towards moderation or if it's a strategic maneuver to gain broader support while maintaining extremist roots. A former counterterrorism envoy for the Trump administration is quoted as saying:

"When you look at his resume, well, it's a terrorist resume." (00:00)

International Skepticism and Security Concerns

International actors, particularly Israel and Republican officials in the U.S., express deep skepticism about HTS’s intentions. Israel’s Ambassador to Washington, Michael Herzog, emphasized the inherent dangers:

"There are no good guys in this story because you have jihadists... Israel has already launched a series of airstrikes targeting chemical weapons caches and other missile and air defense systems in Syria to ensure that they don't fall into rebel hands." (00:00)

Similarly, many U.S. Republicans advocate a cautious approach, suggesting that HTS’s actions should be closely monitored before considering any removal from the terrorism list. The process of delisting is described as "politically fraught," highlighting the delicate balance the administration must maintain to avoid appearing lenient on terrorism.

Current Developments and Future Outlook

The transition in Syria appears relatively smooth on the surface, with HTS leaders engaging in dialogue with remnants of Assad’s government and offering amnesty to Syrian soldiers and reservists. Baker notes:

"The rebels have also indicated that they will break with Islamic law and not implement oppressive policies on women." (02:30)

However, the presence of multiple factions within the rebel coalition introduces uncertainty about the future stability and ideological direction of Syria's new government. Analysts warn that as the interim government consolidates power, extremist elements may resurface, undermining the initial promises of pluralism and tolerance.

Conclusion on Syria

While early indicators suggest a potential shift towards a more inclusive government in Syria, significant doubts remain about the authenticity of HTS’s transformation. The international community remains cautious, monitoring the group’s actions closely to determine whether HTS can genuinely transition from a terrorist organization to a legitimate political entity.

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China's Escalating War Games Against Taiwan

Recent Military Maneuvers

In a display of heightened military assertiveness, China has conducted its largest naval and air force deployment in decades around Taiwan. According to Baker (09:14):

"China has deployed roughly a dozen naval vessels and 47 military planes in regional waters."

These maneuvers are interpreted as a direct response to Taiwanese President Lai Jingde’s recent trip to the United States, which included stops in Hawaii and Guam to engage with U.S. congressional leaders.

Strategic Intentions Behind the Maneuvers

A Taiwanese lieutenant general provided insight into China's strategic objectives:

"The message they are sending is very simple. The Taiwan Strait is ours." (09:30)

He further elaborated on the broader scope of China’s military operations:

"The operations suggest that China aims to demonstrate not only its capacity to isolate Taiwan but also its ability to block US Allies from intervening." (09:45)

These deployments are seen as efforts to intimidate Taiwan and signal Beijing’s readiness to use force if necessary to prevent Taiwanese independence and counteract U.S. support.

Context of U.S.-Taiwan Relations

The timing of China’s military show of force coincides with significant U.S. support for Taiwan, including a recent $2 billion arms package delivering advanced missile systems. Baker explains:

"The latest maneuvers follow just weeks after the US approved a $2 billion arms package for Taiwan, including three national advanced surface-to-air missile systems." (09:14)

This support is further solidified by ongoing arms sales, diplomatic visits, and military assistance, intensifying Beijing’s resolve to assert its territorial claims over Taiwan.

Implications of U.S. Political Landscape

With the incoming Trump administration poised to adopt a tougher stance on Beijing, the military tensions in the Taiwan Strait are unlikely to de-escalate. Senator Marco Rubio, the nominee for Secretary of State, has pledged increased support for Taiwan, advocating for higher defense spending on the island. Baker notes:

"Senator Marco Rubio has already pledged unwavering support for Taiwan, calling for increased defense spending on the island." (09:50)

This commitment from a key U.S. figure signifies continued and potentially enhanced support for Taiwan amidst rising Chinese aggression.

Potential for Conflict Escalation

The lieutenant general warned that current training exercises could evolve into full-scale drills and potentially into open conflict:

"Training could evolve into drills, and drills could escalate into war." (10:00)

Taiwan has responded by establishing an emergency response center and imposing flight restrictions near China’s east coast, measures aimed at preparing for possible military confrontations.

Historical Context and Future Outlook

China’s recent actions are part of a broader pattern of military posturing in response to Taiwanese leadership activities. Previous high-profile visits by figures such as former Speaker Nancy Pelosi and interactions with past Taiwanese presidents have similarly provoked defensive military responses from Beijing.

As the Trump administration takes office, analysts anticipate that China’s military actions may become even more assertive, further destabilizing the Taiwan Strait and challenging U.S.-China relations.

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Conclusion

The December 10th PDB Afternoon Bulletin underscores the precarious geopolitical landscape in both Syria and the Taiwan Strait. In Syria, the international community remains divided on the legitimacy and intentions of the newly appointed interim government led by HTS, amidst fears of a resurgence of extremist elements. Concurrently, the intensified military maneuvers by China around Taiwan reflect escalating tensions that could have significant implications for regional and global stability.

Mike Baker emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring these developments, as they hold profound implications for U.S. foreign policy and national security. As the world watches these unfolding scenarios, the decisions made by key international players will be crucial in shaping the future trajectory of these volatile regions.

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Transcript

[Mike Baker]

Start your day off with a tasty cup or two of Blackout Coffee. Now, Blackout Coffee is an excellent family owned American company. It's producing premium coffee, fresh roasted and shipped out within 48 hours of roasting. Go to blackout coffee.com promo code PDB for 20% off your first time purchase. It's Tuesday, the 10th of December. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First. With Syrian rebel leadership naming a new interim prime minister in an attempt to avoid a dangerous power vacuum following their overthrow of the Assad regime, debate is raging in Washington, D.C. over whether the Islamist rebel insurgents will break from their radical past. We'll discuss the current debate over whether the west can trust Syria's new leaders. Hmm. There's so much pontificating and punditry happening right now in the west. Then in the latest escalation from the South China Sea because, of course, that's what we needed right now, a bit of escalation. The Chinese military has staged their largest show of force in decades in the waters around Taiwan, a likely message to the incoming Trump administration about the consequences of intervention. But first, our afternoon spotlight. With the fall of the Assad regime and a new interim government starting to take shape, well, sort of. One of the top questions on the minds of America's senior national security officials is do Syria's rebels still warrant their international terrorist designation? Meaning can the rebel leaders follow through with action to support their claims that they want to form a pluralistic, inclusive government to respect all Syrians? Now, no one in the west, of course, is mourning the fall of Assad and his brutally repressive regime, which collapsed On Sunday, just 10 days after the rebel insurgents began their lightning offensive in northern Syria. But with this toppling, difficult questions remain regarding what type of government will fill the void. Namely, whether we'll be looking at a pivot towards moderation or a government steeped in the principles of radical Islam. The somewhat loose coalition of Islamist rebels is led by the militant group Hayat Tahrir al Sham, or known as hts, a former arm of Al Qaeda that used to be called the Nusra Front. Now, hts, and this is where it gets complex, is a US Designated terror organization that fought against U. S Backed forces in the region during the civil war, but has since positioned themselves as moderates focused on the liberation of Syria. Their leader, Abu Muhammad Al Jolani, a Syrian native, began as a fighter for the Islamic State of Iraq before being dispatched back to Syria after the civil war kicked off in 2011 to further the interests of Al Qaeda and the emerging ISIS terrorist group. But as fissures emerged between the terrorist groups, Al Jilani sided with Al Qaeda and turned on his ISIS backers in Iraq. He then moved to brutally eliminate competitors and former allies among the many extremist organizations opposing Assad, eventually renouncing his longtime ties to Al Qaeda. That's it, fellas. We're through. He rebranded his organization as HTS in 2016 and framed it as a salvation government rooted in the values of pluralism and tolerance. That all sounds good, doesn't it? The cynical rebranding worked to broaden the group's public support. But as a former counterterrorism envoy for the Trump administration put it, quote, when you look at his resume, well, it's a terrorist resume. According to an exclusive report From POLITICO, senior U.S. defense officials are currently engaged in a furious debate. Oh, it's furious. Over whether Al Jilani's supposed transformation is authentic and if the terrorist designation on HTS should be lifted. Well, look, I'm no senior US Defense official, but I've got an idea. How about you wait to see if their actions match their words and platitudes, Skip the furious speculative debate for now, since nobody has any idea how this is going to shake out in the short term. There. Look at that. I fixed it for you. But just in case you're wondering about the mechanics of a terrorism designation and these days, who isn't? Under US Law, the president, through the Secretary of State, can choose to remove groups from the list of foreign terrorist organizations at any time. But the process is politically fraught. And yes, I used the word fraught. No administration wants to be seen as soft on terror, of course, particularly if the choice to delist is premature and later backfires. But officials say early signs out of Syria are promising. The rebels spent their first couple of days in Damascus in, well, let's call them cordial conversations with Syria's sitting prime minister from the Assad regime to date. The rebel. The leadership named a new interim prime minister and that would be Muhammad Al Bashir. Al Bashir was the head of the HTS de facto government up in Idlib province. That was the rebels primary stronghold prior to their offensive that brought the Assad regime to a quick end. Now Al Bashir will lead a transitional government until the 1st of March, 2025. He's already reportedly met with numerous members of Assad's government and has implied that senior public officials and others need to stay in place to ensure that services to the people of Syria remain consistent. So I guess that's better than rounding up all officials of the Assad regime and making them walk the plank. In addition, the brand new interim government has reportedly offered amnesty to all Syrian soldiers and reservists. Now, so far, it does appear that the transition to a new government has been relatively smooth and peaceful, but it's obviously early days. The rebels have also indicated that they will break with Islamic law and not implement oppressive policies on women. So despite the early efforts of the rebels to appear moderate and restrained, there are others in the international community who are urging caution. Michael Herzog, Israel's ambassador to Washington, told Politico there are no good guys in this story because you have jihadists. We don't want jihadists to put their hands on strategic capabilities like chemical or other types of capabilities that are there in Syria. Israel has already launched a series of airstrikes targeting chemical weapons caches and other missile and air defense systems in Syria to ensure that they don't fall into rebel hands. But the skepticism, well, it's not unique to Israel. Many in Washington, particularly on the Republican side, question HTS ability to deradicalize after such a sweeping victory over Assad. They're advocating a wait and see approach with regards to HTS and Daljolani to learn if the group's rhetoric is truly sincere. That seems reasonable. The problem is even more complex than what HTS intends to do. There are, after all, numerous other groups and factions that make up this coalition of rebels. And pardon me for being cynical, but once the pie starts getting divided up, they'll all want their peace. A former Trump administration official who worked on Middle east policy warned Politico, lots of groups say the right thing as they come into power because they're concerned that their hold on power is fragile. And then once they consolidate power, they focus on implementing their ideology. For now, analysts think that the terror designation and the sanctions that come with it will likely stay in place, offering potential leverage to the incoming Trump administration as they work to navigate the many conflicts currently gripping the Middle East. Coming up in the latest escalation from the South China Sea, the Chinese have staged their largest show of force in decades in the waters around Taiwan. I'll be right back.

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[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the Afternoon Bulletin. Taiwan's military is once again raising alarms over a significant Chinese naval and air force deployment near its borders, warning that such maneuvers could escalate into open conflict as tensions in the Taiwan Strait reach a boiling point. According to Taiwanese defense officials, China has deployed roughly a dozen naval vessels and 47 military planes in regional waters. And the timing? Well, the timing is no coincidence. These maneuvers follow Taiwanese President Lai Jingde's trip to the US earlier this month, including stops in Hawaii and the island territory of Guam, where he spoke to congressional leaders. Beijing, which views Lai as a separatist, reacted furiously. Of course they did, escalating tensions that were already high. As I'm sure you likely know, China's stance on Taiwan is longstanding. It sees the island as a breakaway province and has repeatedly vowed to reclaim it by force if necessary. The latest maneuvers come just weeks after the US also approved a $2 billion arms package for Taiwan, including three national advanced surface to Air missile systems. Now this further upset Xi's regime. In Beijing, a Taiwanese lieutenant general painted a grim picture of China's recent strategy, describing the naval deployments as forming two walls, one encircling Taiwan and another along the island chain stretching from Japan to the Philippines. The lieutenant general stated, quote, the message they are sending is very simple. The Taiwan Strait is ours. The scope of the operations, the lieutenant general added, suggests that China aims to demonstrate not only its capacity to isolate Taiwan, but also its ability to block US Allies from intervening. While Taiwanese defense officials have described the deployment as without announcement and a training exercise, the lieutenant general issued a warning. Training could evolve into drills, and drills could escalate into war. Now, this isn't the first time that China has flexed its military muscle in response to one of Lai's activities. Following his inauguration in May and National Day speech in October, Beijing conducted massive military drills around Taiwan. Basically, anytime Lai gives a speech, Beijing throws its teddy out of the crib. Taiwan has responded by setting up an emergency response center. Well, that should do it. And imposing flight restrictions in zones near China's east coast, effective through Wednesday. The U.S. meanwhile, continues to back Taiwan with arms sales, diplomatic visits and military operations. Now, past high profile trips like former Speaker Nancy Pelosi's 2021 visit and Taiwan's former president meeting with Kevin McCarthy in 2023 have repeatedly provoked Chinese military exercises. With President elect Donald Trump poised to take a tougher stance on Beijing, tensions show no signs of easing. His nominee for secretary of state, Senator Marco Rubio, has already pledged unwavering support for Taiwan, calling for increased defense spending on the island. Oh, look at that. Here comes another teddy. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon bulletin for Tuesday, 10 December. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me@pdb the first tv.com and don't forget, not that I'd ever let you to listen to the show ad free. It's simple. Become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting bdbpremium.com See? Told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay co.