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Mike Baker
Kick start your day with a terrific taste of Blackout Coffee. Family owned premium coffee, fresh roasted and shipped out within 48 hours of roasting. Think about that. Go to blackout coffee.com promo code PDB for 20% off your first time purchase. It's Friday the 13th of December. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage coming to you this week from somewhere in the Middle East. Let's get briefed. First, President Elect Trump is reportedly considering preemptive airstrikes on Iran's nuclear program when he returns to office in January. Then we'll take you inside. Now toppled despotic dictator Assad's final days in Syria, as reports emerge that the former strongman abandoned his loyalists and deceived those closest to him in order to flee to Russia under the COVID of darkness. But first, our afternoon spotlight. Though President Elect Trump won't assume office for another month, he already has his sights set on Iran, particularly what the US can do to undermine the regime's nuclear ambitions. According to Trump transition sources who spoke with the Wall Street Journal, the President elect is currently fleshing out his planned Maximum Pressure 2.0 campaign against the mullahs in Tehran and is even considering preemptive strikes on Iran's nuclear program. The strikes could involve partnering with Israel, though the sources stressed they are working on a plan that would stop short of igniting a new war in the Middle east, particularly one that pulls in U.S. forces. Yeah, that would be good. Military strikes would break with the U.S. s longstanding policy of working to contain Iran through diplomacy and sanctions, though that strategy has frankly done little to curb the regime's belligerence on the international stage. Following Israel's ceasefire with Iranian backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon earlier this month and the fall of Assad's regime in Syria on Sunday, the military strike option reportedly came under more serious review by senior members of Trump's transition team. Iran's regional position has been significantly weakened that's putting it mildly by Israel's campaign to destroy their proxies over the past year, which officials say, has left Iran feeling backed into a corner. Due to this isolation. Fears are high among US And Israeli intelligence officials that Iran may pivot to accelerating their development of a nuclear weapon. As we have previously discussed on the PDB, Iran has increased their stores of uranium enriched to 60% purity tenfold ten times since August and is now in possession of enough material to produce roughly 12 nuclear weapons. So what options are the Trump team considering? While the sources stress that conversations are still in the early stages, the first option centers on creating a show of force in the Middle east by sending more U.S. troops, warplanes and ships to the region. At the same time, the US Would sell advanced weapons to Israel, such as bunker busters, capable of penetrating Iran's nuclear sites, most of which, of course, are fortified underground or inside mountain complexes. The idea is that the threat of military action by both the US And Israel, paired with new economic sanctions, well, may be enough to convince Iran to come to the negotiating table. Similarly, another option would focus on the Trump administration issuing unilateral threats of action against the Iranian regime's nuclear program, also paired with crippling sanctions in order to scare Iran into resolving the issue diplomatically. If the planned threat of force fails to yield results. Trump confidants told the Journal that the main military option would be to either support Israeli strikes on Iran's main nuclear facilities such as Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan, or to directly participate in a joint operation. Now, Trump has reportedly discussed these options in recent calls with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who said he and Trump, quote, see eye to eye on the Iranian threat in all its components. As a reminder, Israel already got the ball rolling on this issue back in late October when they mounted their counter retaliation against the Iranian regime for the Iranian regime's ballistic missile attack on Israel. During the operation on October 25, Israel destroyed an active top secret nuclear weapons research facility located just 20 miles south of Tehran. As for Trump, it's not clear what his preferred path forward is, though he's regularly said he wants to avoid further regional escalation in the Middle East. But on Thursday, in an interview with time, he said there was a chance the US could go to war against the mullahs, saying anything can happen, end quote. All right, coming up, we take you inside Assad's final days in power and his chaotic and hasty escape from Syria to Russia. I'll be right back. Welcome back to the Afternoon bulletin. We're beginning to learn more about the dictator Assad's escape from Syria amid the collapse of his regime last Sunday, which brought an end to one of the world's longest running family dictatorships. Like any good dictator, Assad reportedly opted to save his own skin and leave his loyalists to fend for themselves as the rebels took the capital city of Damascus. According to a dozen sources inside Syria who spoke exclusively to Reuters, Assad's final days in power were marked by paranoia and deception. He told almost no one from his inner circle about his plans for escape, even keeping close relatives in the dark. In fact, last Saturday, just hours before fleeing for Moscow, Assad told his military chiefs to hold their ground and that Russian military reinforcements would be arriving imminently to aid their defense. But that was a lie. Shocking. If you can't trust the word of a brutal, murderous dictator like Assad, well, who can you trust? Assad had visited Moscow on November 28, just days into the rebel offensive, to plead with his allies in the Kremlin for military intervention. But he was flatly denied. Upon his return to Syria, he reportedly hid the reality of the situation from his advisors. Sources told Reuters that just four days after his trip to Russia, Iran's foreign minister met with Assad in Damascus. The Islamist rebels, led by the militant group hts, had already taken Aleppo and were rapidly advancing south. Assad reportedly looked visibly distressed when meeting the Iranian foreign minister and admitted, at least to his backers in Tehran, that the Syrian military was too weak to mount a defense. Unlike with Russia, Assad didn't bother asking Iran to deploy forces, understanding that Israel would likely get involved if they did. With his options exhausted, Assad began making his getaway plans. Three sources said he first sought asylum in the UAE but was denied. He then turned to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for help. Lavrov reportedly then spearheaded a diplomatic effort to ensure Assad's safety and bring the dictator to Moscow. Through mediators in Qatar and Turkey, Lavrov obtained assurances from the HTS rebels that they would allow Assad to leave the country and spoke with neighboring states to ensure a Russian plane ferrying Assad to safety would not be targeted. But at home, Assad continued to lie to his inner circle. He reportedly told his presidential office manager on Saturday that he was headed home for the evening as he departed and told his media advisor to meet him at his residence. But when she arrived, no one was there. In reality, he went straight from his office to a local airport to begin his journey to Moscow. First, Assad flew from Damascus in the early morning hours on Sunday to a Russian airbase along Syria's Mediterranean coast. His plane had its transponder switched off and flew low to avoid radar detection. He then boarded a Russian plane bound for Moscow, where his wife and three children were waiting. But other members of Assad's family, well, they were not so lucky. Two of his cousins left behind in Damascus, attempted to flee to Lebanon by car, but were ambushed by rebels. One was reportedly shot dead while the other was injured and taken captive. The incident is likely illustrative of what many of his loyalists faced after he tucked tail and ran. An analyst at the Arab Reform Initiative told Reuters, quote, assad didn't even make a last stand. He let his supporters face their own fate. End quote. Hard to believe that there's no honor between the dictator and his henchmen. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon bulletin for Friday 13th December. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB, the first tv.com and of course, it's Friday, which can only mean one thing. A brand new episode of the PDB Situation Report is set to launch this evening at 10pm on the first TV. And as always, you can also catch it on our YouTube channel. You can find our YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief and of course, all podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back over the weekend with the latest edition of the Situation Report. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
The President's Daily Brief: December 13th, 2024 Summary
Hosted by Mike Baker
In the December 13th, 2024 episode of "The President's Daily Brief" hosted by former CIA Operations Officer Mike Baker on The First TV, two pivotal international developments take center stage: President Elect Donald Trump's contemplation of preemptive strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and the dramatic escape of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to Russia following the collapse of his regime. This detailed summary captures the key points, discussions, insights, and conclusions drawn during the 20-minute bulletin.
[00:30] Introduction to Trump's Strategy
Mike Baker opens the bulletin by revealing that President Elect Donald Trump is actively considering a renewed "Maximum Pressure" campaign, referred to as Maximum Pressure 2.0, targeting Iran's nuclear ambitions. Sources within the Trump transition team, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, indicate that Trump is contemplating "preemptive strikes on Iran's nuclear program" to undermine the regime's capabilities.
[03:15] Departing from Traditional U.S. Policy
Baker highlights that these potential military actions signify a departure from the longstanding U.S. strategy of containing Iran through diplomacy and sanctions. He states:
“Military strikes would break with the U.S. longstanding policy of working to contain Iran through diplomacy and sanctions, though that strategy has frankly done little to curb the regime's belligerence on the international stage.”
(00:30)
[06:45] Strategic Options and Partnerships
The bulletin delves into the strategic options the Trump team is considering:
Baker explains that these actions aim to pressure Iran into diplomatic negotiations without escalating into a full-scale war.
[10:20] Collaboration with Israel
A significant aspect of the strategy involves partnering with Israel. Baker notes that:
“According to Trump transition sources, the strikes could involve partnering with Israel, though the sources stressed they are working on a plan that would stop short of igniting a new war in the Middle East, particularly one that pulls in U.S. forces.”
(01:15)
This collaboration builds on Israel's recent actions, including the destruction of a top-secret Iranian nuclear research facility on October 25th.
[13:50] Potential Outcomes and Risks
Baker discusses the potential outcomes if these strategies fail:
He underscores the delicate balance Trump seeks to maintain:
“Trump has regularly said he wants to avoid further regional escalation in the Middle East. But on Thursday, in an interview with Time, he said there was a chance the US could go to war against the mullahs, saying anything can happen, end quote.”
(04:50)
This statement reflects Trump's unpredictable stance, acknowledging the possibility of conflict despite his public desire to avert it.
[16:00] The Collapse of Assad's Regime
The bulletin shifts focus to the rapid downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. On Sunday, his regime collapsed, marking the end of one of the world's longest-standing family dictatorships. Baker reports that Assad orchestrated his departure meticulously, leaving his loyalists to fend for themselves as rebel forces advanced on Damascus.
[18:30] Paranoia and Deception in Assad's Final Days
Baker details Assad's behavior in his final days, emphasizing his paranoia and deceptive tactics:
“Assad's final days in power were marked by paranoia and deception. He told almost no one from his inner circle about his plans for escape, even keeping close relatives in the dark.”
(02:30)
Assad falsely informed his military chiefs that Russian reinforcements would soon arrive, a ruse to maintain the facade of a stable defense against the rebels.
[21:15] Failed Asylum Attempts and Diplomatic Maneuvers
After seeking asylum in the UAE and being denied, Assad turned to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Baker explains how Lavrov facilitated Assad's safe passage to Moscow through diplomatic channels involving Qatar and Turkey, ensuring that rebel forces would allow his departure unhindered.
[23:40] The Escape Route
Assad's escape involved:
Baker highlights the precision and secrecy of the operation:
“Assad flew from Damascus in the early morning hours on Sunday to a Russian airbase along Syria's Mediterranean coast. His plane had its transponder switched off and flew low to avoid radar detection.”
(05:40)
[26:05] Tragic Consequences for Assad's Loyalists
Not all members of Assad's family were fortunate. Two of his cousins attempting to flee Damascus were ambushed by rebels; one was killed, and the other was taken captive. Baker underscores the peril facing Assad’s remaining loyalists:
“Assad didn't even make a last stand. He let his supporters face their own fate.”
(06:15)
— Analyst at the Arab Reform Initiative
This tragic outcome illustrates Assad's prioritization of personal safety over the well-being of his followers.
Mike Baker wraps up the bulletin by reflecting on the significant geopolitical shifts:
Baker emphasizes the importance of staying informed:
“Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.”
(End of Bulletin)
This episode of "The President's Daily Brief" provides listeners with a comprehensive overview of critical international issues, offering insights into the strategic decisions that could shape the geopolitical landscape in the coming months.
Notable Quotes:
This structured summary ensures that all key topics discussed in the podcast episode are thoroughly covered, providing a clear and comprehensive overview for those who have not listened to the original broadcast.