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PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 15th, 2025: Ukraine Offers Massive Concession to Moscow & Deadly Attack at Bondi Beach
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This morning we spent some time talking about Vladimir Putin and his apparent unwillingness to compromise at the negotiating table. He is reportedly living in an echo chamber populated with yes men and sycophants, reinforcing his belief that time is on his side, that Russia can outlast Ukraine in the west, and that there's little incentive for him to soften his demands. And this afternoon, a new development on the Ukrainian side probably further convinces Putin that he's got the upper hand. Ukrainian President Zelensky is offering what may be the most significant concession Ukraine has put on the table since Russia's full scale invasion began almost four years ago. Zelensky is now saying Ukraine is prepared to give up its ambition of joining NATO. Now, Ukraine's desire to join NATO isn't just a theoretical concept. The goal of NATO membership is written into the country's constitution. Discarding that goal would require a formal constitutional amendment. It's basically Ukraine signaling a willingness to rewrite its long term security future if it can secure credible guarantees that Russia won't simply regroup and invade again. Down the road and outside of territorial concessions, this is about as big as it gets. For years, Russia has made one demand louder and more consistently than almost any other. Ukraine must never become part of NATO. Moscow has long seen the alliance not as defensive, but as an existential threat, creeping ever closer to its borders. At least that's what they claim. Preventing Ukraine from joining NATO has been one of Putin's central war aims since before the first Russian tanks cross the border. So when Zelensky says Ukraine is prepared to abandon that goal, at least for now. It represents a major shift in their negotiating strategy. But there's a very important caveat here. Kyiv is expecting something in exchange. So Zelensky isn't offering neutrality for free. What Ukraine wants instead are binding security guarantees. Actual ones, real ones. Guarantees from the US that Russia resemble Article 5 protections, commitments from European partners, backstops from allies like Canada and Japan, and critically, guarantees that are in writing and legally binding, not just political promises that can evaporate with the next election cycle. In other words, Ukraine is saying this. If we can't be inside NATO, we still need NATO level protection. That framing matters because without credible security guarantees, giving up NATO membership would leave Ukraine exposed, essentially betting its survival on the hope that Russia has learned its lesson and changed its ways. Turned over a new leaf. And you can see why Ukraine might not want to bet on that hope now. It's also worth noting what Zelensky is not offering here. Ukraine is not agreeing to cede territory that it still controls. It's not withdrawing from the Donbass. It's not endorsing Moscow's demand for a neutral Ukraine stripped of defensive capabilities. Zelenskyy has been clear that any territorial decisions would require a vote by the Ukrainian people. The timing of this potential concession, well, that matters too. Zelenskyy made these comments ahead of talks in Germany with US Negotiators, including Trump envoy Steve Witkoff. The message is unmistakable. Ukraine wants to demonstrate seriousness, flexibility, and a a willingness to meet the US Halfway while still protecting its core interests. And here's the key question this raises. If NATO membership was truly the obstacle to peace, if this war was really about stopping NATO expansion, then Ukraine has just removed that obstacle. And what happens next will tell us a lot about Moscow's real intentions. Because as of now, there's no indication that Putin is prepared to reciprocate. Russian strikes continue, the Kremlin insists it's winning. And Moscow's demands still include territorial withdrawals that Ukraine has flatly rejected. And as we noted this morning, Putin is surrounded mostly by yes men at this point, insiders who are feeding him a steady diet of things he wants to hear. Giving up the goal of NATO membership for Kyiv is a painful concession and arguably the most significant move that Ukraine has made toward compromise since the war began. If Putin still refuses to engage at this point, it will be interesting to see if that changes the current White House perspective. The Trump administration for some time now has acted as if Kyiv is the roadblock to peace, seemingly confused as to why Ukraine isn't willing to give up a large portion of their country in order to stop Putin's war. If Putin doesn't respond in some meaningful fashion to this NATO concession by Kyiv, it might be time for the White House to stop pretending that Putin is interested in peace. Coming up next, Australian police confirmed that a father and son carried out the deadly attack at Sydney's Bondi beach, killing at least 15 and injuring 40 more. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, let me take just a moment of your time to talk about something very important. Personal finances. As I suspect you already realize, we are smack dab in the middle of the holiday season. And for many families, of course, that means excitement and perhaps a little stress, right? You know what I'm talking about. Between gifts and travel and, well, higher prices in general, it's easy to feel overwhelmed, particularly if you're already relying on credit cards to cover the basics. And if that debt is piling up, well, you're not alone. So perhaps you're a homeowner and you've already considered reaching out to American Financing, but, well, maybe you hesitated because you don't want to give up your low mortgage rate. And that's understandable. 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To the Afternoon Bulletin. I want to return to the terror attack at Sydney's Bondi beach investigators who confirmed that the two men who opened fire on a Hanukkah celebration were a father and son who had been monitored over suspected Islamic State ties years before carrying out Australia's deadliest anti Semitic attack. Australian counterterrorism authorities identified the men as 24 year old Navid Akram and his father, 50 year old Sajid Akram, revelation that has jolted Canberra's security establishment as the duo's radicalization comes into sharper focus. The death toll has now been confirmed at 15 in what police describe as a deliberate terror assault on a Hanukkah gathering. The father, Sajid, was shot dead by police at the scene while Navid remains critically wounded under guard and will face charges of course, if he survives. When the Shots rang out Sunday night. One of Sydney's most recognizable beaches was no longer a tourist hotbed, but a mass casualty scene. As of now, more than a dozen people remain injured, including two police officers. Authorities say both attackers allegedly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State and two ISIS flags were found inside a vehicle. While that's kind of a clue linked to the pair alongside improvised explosive devices, another clue. The findings were developed by Australia's Joint Counterterrorism Team. That's a task force made up of state and federal agencies that's taken the lead on the investigation. Attention has since shifted to the attacker's history, particularly that of Navid Akram. Authorities confirm he was once examined by Australia's domestic intelligence agency as early as 2019, reportedly over suspected extremist ties, including what counterterrorism officials described as close associations with an ISIS linked terror cell. Yeah, and apparently nothing was done about it. As for that investigation, it lasted only six months before Naveed was cleared, with authorities concluding there was no indication that he posed a, quote, immediate threat. Ah, well, that's okay then. As you can assume that clearance is now under intense scrutiny. Australian counterterrorism investigators say the terrorist cell that Naveed was linked to included individuals later convicted of Islamic State activity, including a man who identified himself in as the group's leader in the country. Why those connections did not result in longer term monitoring or intervention, well, that'll be a key focus of review, of course. His father, Sajid represents another layer of complexity. Australian Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said Sajid first arrived in Australia in 1998 on a student visa before obtaining a partner visa in 2001 tied to an unknown Australian citizen or permanent residential. Since then, Cambra says he's traveled overseas only three times. Despite that relatively unremarkable travel history, Sajid was a licensed firearm owner for roughly a decade, legally possessing six guns. Authorities also raided the family's home in Sydney's southwest and then Airbnb, where the two men were staying in the days leading up to the shooting. Reportedly, the investigation is also reaching overseas. Western intelligence agencies are probing other possible links of terrorism to the duo, including whether the attack intersects with earlier warnings about Iranian backed terror concerns in Australia. According to the Times of Israel, the massacre came roughly one month after the Mossad notified Australian intelligence about Islamic Republic backed terror infrastructure planning attacks on Jewish targets in the country. Back in October, Israel's intelligence agency released details about a transnational terror network run by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Quds Force, which it said was responsible for a string of attacks on Jewish and Israeli sites across Western countries. So far, no direct operational link has been confirmed, but the timing, targets and ideological signals are, of course, being closely scrutinized. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Monday 15th December. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and of course, to listen to the show ad free. That is a very simple thing to do. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.