PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 18th, 2025: Venezuela Sends Warships to Challenge U.S. Naval Blockade & Colombia Cartel Labeled Terrorists

Summary

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The President's Daily Brief – Afternoon Bulletin

Episode: December 18th, 2025

Host: Mike Baker
Theme: Venezuela's Naval Escalation & U.S. Countermeasures against Latin American Cartels

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Overview

This episode centers on two evolving crises: Venezuela’s pushback against a U.S. naval blockade and the Trump Administration’s intensified campaign against Colombian drug cartels, namely the designation of Clan de Golfo as a terrorist group. Mike Baker, leveraging his intelligence background, breaks down the geopolitical, military, and policy implications of these moves, focusing on the risks, motivations, and next steps in U.S. strategy across the region.

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Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Venezuela’s Naval Show of Defiance

[00:55–08:12]

• Escalation Context:

  • President Trump recently authorized a naval blockade targeting oil tankers sanctioned by the U.S., aiming to choke off Venezuela’s main revenue source and pressure Nicolás Maduro’s regime.
  • In response, Maduro ordered Venezuelan naval vessels to escort oil tankers, which is seen as a direct but calculated challenge to the U.S. blockade.

• Key Insight:

  • Symbolic But Measured:

    “None of the tankers being escorted so far are on the U.S. sanctions list. That distinction is important...this move remains largely symbolic. Maduro is signaling defiance without actually crossing the line that would force a U.S. response.” (Mike Baker, 01:56)

  • Change in Risk Profile:
    • The situation shifts from a sanctions operation to military forces operating in proximity, complicating enforcement and heightening the risk of unintended conflict.

• Operational Considerations:

  • The U.S. is currently shadowing and documenting these movements, maintaining a "contained" situation, but a major escalation looms if a sanctioned tanker is escorted.

    “If Caracas decides to up the ante, if a sanctioned tanker leaves port under armed Venezuelan escort, well, we’ve got a new ball game.” (Mike Baker, 03:24)

• Washington’s Response:

  • The U.S. prefers deterrence but has multiple response options:
    • Law enforcement approach: Seizing ships with legal warrants (as previously done).
    • Disabling ships: Disabling the propulsion system to prevent movement—high risk, could cause oil spills.

• Political Calculus:

  • For Maduro, this is a domestic play to project strength and frame the blockade as foreign aggression.

    “He gets to portray the blockade as foreign aggression. He gets to show strength to his domestic audience, and...maximum political value while minimizing risk.” (Mike Baker, 04:43)

  • For the U.S., the blockade’s credibility is at stake if challenged directly.

• Notable Quote:

  “It’s not a theoretical problem...a scenario that commanders obviously think through long before ships ever meet at sea.” (Mike Baker, 03:50)

• Big Picture:

  • The situation marks a dramatic transformation from counter-narcotics operations into a large-scale, potentially military confrontation.

    “What started as a counter-narcotics operation morphed into a large scale military deployment...now a naval blockade.” (Mike Baker, 06:29)

  • Trump has positioned the blockade as tied to Venezuelan restitution of "oil and land," shifting the public rationale toward resources.

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2. U.S. Designates Colombia’s Clan de Golfo Cartel as Terrorists

[09:12–13:42]

• Policy Development:

  • The White House formally designated the Colombian Clan de Golfo cartel (also known as AGC) as a foreign terrorist organization, signaling an intent to escalate the campaign against Latin American drug networks.

• State Department’s Rationale:

  “Clan de Golfo as a, quote, violent and powerful criminal organization...economic reliance on cocaine trafficking and a long history of attacks against public officials, law enforcement, military personnel, and civilians inside Colombia.” (Mike Baker, 09:43)

• Implications of the Terror Label:

  • Tightens financial pressure.
  • Enables use of counterterrorism tools and legal frameworks, modeled after similar actions against Venezuelan and Mexican cartels.
  • Lays groundwork for possible U.S. military action against the cartel’s operations.

• Cartel Profile:

  • Believed to have 9,000 fighters; evolved from paramilitary origins into a powerful criminal syndicate.

  • Dominant in roughly a third of Colombia’s municipalities.

  • Infamous for recruiting children and once offering bounties for “dead police officers.”

    “At one time, the Colombian Government says the group offered cash bounties for, quote, dead police officers, a detail that underscores how openly the cartel challenges the Colombian state.” (Mike Baker, 11:03)

• Colombian Government and U.S. Friction:

  • Despite Bogota’s efforts (over 200 members recently captured or killed), violence and U.S. frustration persist.
  • President Gustavo Petro’s peace talks and agreements with the cartel (offering legal protection zones) are viewed skeptically in Washington and seen as weakening enforcement.

    “The concern from Washington has only deepened as Petro pursues peace talks with Clan Golfo...giving members protection from prosecution...weakening, of course, enforcement.” (Mike Baker, 12:33)

• Military Action Options:

  • The designation doesn't automatically authorize strikes but “strengthens the legal foundation for the use of such force against those terrorist threats, meaning military operations are eventually possible.” (Mike Baker, 13:05)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Caracas' Calculated Escalation:

  “He’s climbing the escalation ladder, so to speak, but he hasn’t reached the rung where things could get ugly, primarily for him.” (Mike Baker, 02:38)

• On the U.S. Dilemma:

  “Do they enforce the blockade and risk a direct naval confrontation? Or do they allow a sanctioned vessel to pass, undermining the credibility of the entire operation?” (Mike Baker, 03:36)

• On the Broader Mission:

  “Clearly, the White House is multitasking, combating narco traffickers, seizing and blockading sanctioned oil tankers, exerting pressure on Venezuela’s only real revenue stream, and trying to push Maduro out of power. It’s quite the holiday season.” (Mike Baker, 07:00)

• On U.S. Frustration with Colombia:

  “The Trump administration listed Colombia’s leadership as failing to cooperate in the drug war for the first time in nearly three decades, in what was a striking rebuke of a longtime U.S. ally.” (Mike Baker, 11:53)

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Segment Timestamps

• Introduction & Venezuela Blockade Recap: 00:55–03:24
• Implications of Naval Escalation: 03:25–06:30
• Washington’s Military Options/Big Picture: 06:31–08:12
• Colombia Clan de Golfo Terror Designation: 09:12–13:42

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Takeaways

• The U.S.-Venezuela standoff has entered a delicate but potentially explosive phase, hinging on whether Maduro tests the limits of U.S. resolve with sanctioned tanker escorts.
• The terrorism designation of Clan de Golfo marks an expansion of U.S. military and legal pressure on transnational cartels and could portend more direct U.S. involvement in Colombia.
• Both stories highlight a regional campaign to pressure leftist regimes and criminal networks, with the risk of military engagement rising on multiple fronts as 2025 ends.

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Host sign-off:

“That, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon bulletin for Thursday 18th December. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at [e-mail]… Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.” (Mike Baker, 13:42)

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Transcript

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As we covered yesterday here on the pdb, President Trump announced a naval blockade targeting US Sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers. It's a move designed to cut off a major source of revenue, of course, for the Maduro regime. Now, today, well, we're seeing Caracas respond. President Nicolas Maduro has ordered Venezuelan naval vessels to escort oil tankers as they leave Venezuelan ports and move through surrounding waters. On its face, well, that sounds like a direct challenge to the US Blockade, and it's certainly meant to look that way. But here's the key detail that matters right now. None of the tankers are being escorted so far are on the US Sanctions list. That distinction is important because, at least for the moment, this move remains largely symbolic. Maduro is signaling defiance without actually crossing the line. That would force a US Response. He's climbing the escalation ladder, so to speak, but he hasn't reached the rung where things could get ugly primarily for him. Still, this move matters because once you introduce naval escorts, of course, you change the character of the situation. What had been a sanctions enforcement operation now includes state military forces operating in close proximity. And that's, of course, where the risk starts to creep in. Think of it this way. An unescorted tanker can be stopped, boarded or diverted with relatively little drama, just like we saw last week with the seizure of the skipper. A tanker escorted by armed naval vessels, well, that's a different equation if Venezuelan warships continue escorting non sanctioned tankers, while the US can largely just observe and shadow and document sending a message without triggering a confrontation. And that keeps things Basically contained. But if Caracas decides to up the ante, if a sanctioned tanker leaves port under armed Venezuelan escort, well, we've got a new ball game. At that point, U. S. Forces obviously face a hard choice. Do they enforce the blockade and risk a direct naval confrontation? Or do they allow a sanctioned vessel to pass, undermining the credibility of the entire operation? It's not a theoretical problem, of course. It's a scenario that commanders obviously think through long before ships ever meet at sea. Now, from Maduro's perspective, this move makes sense politically. He gets to portray the blockade as foreign aggression. He gets to show strength to his domestic audience, and. And he gets headlines that suggest he's standing up to Washington. In other words, he's trying to extract maximum political value while minimizing risk. So you ask what happens next? Well, I'm glad you asked. No surprise. That part isn't entirely clear. But new reporting gives us a better sense of how Washington is thinking about this. According to current and former Navy officials, U.S. warships in the Caribbean have already been shadowing sanctioned oil tankers in international waters as they approach Venezuela. The idea is deterrence. Make it clear those ships are being watched, apply pressure, and ideally convince their captains to turn around before anything escalates. But if that deterrence fails, US Commanders obviously have a few different options. One approach is to treat it as a law enforcement operation. That would involve identifying sanctioned vessels, securing legal warrants, and then seizing the ships in coordination with other agencies, similar to what we saw with the earlier seizure of the skipper. That would involve armed boarding teams deployed by helicopter from nearby warships. Of course, those kind of operations are already high risk, but they become even more complicated if Venezuelan naval vessels are escorting those tankers. There's also another possibility being discussed behind the scenes. American officials say another option could involve disabling a tanker's propulsion system, preventing it from moving without boarding it outright. That would require extremely careful execution, both to avoid casualties and to prevent a major oil spill. Basically, we are in uncharted waters here. As we approach the end of 2025, what started in the Caribbean as a counter narcotics operation morphed into a large scale military deployment to the region and now a naval blockade, with President Trump announcing via social media that the US Wouldn't let up pressure until Venezuela returns the oil and land that it stole from the U.S. making it appear that this is all about natural resources. Clearly, the White House is multitasking, combating narco traffickers, seizing and blockading sanctioned oil tankers, exerting pressure on Venezuela's only real revenue stream and trying to push Maduro out of power. It's quite the holiday season. Coming up next, Washington takes a major step against Colombia's clan Golfo cartel, designating the group as terrorists and potentially paving the way for military action. I'll be right back. 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Mutual insurance company affiliates excludes Massachusetts. Welcome back to the afternoon bulletin. The Trump administration's campaign against Latin American drug networks is widening. After first targeting Venezuelan narco terrorists earlier this year, the White House is turning to Colombia, designating the Clan Golfo cartel a foreign terrorist organization, potentially expanding U.S. military action. This is how Washington put it. The State Department this week described Clan de Golfo as a, quote, violent and powerful criminal organization, pointing to its economic reliance on cocaine trafficking and a long history of attacks against public officials, law enforcement, military personnel and civilians inside Colombia. Beyond the symbolism, the designation tightens financial pressure and places the group squarely within a legal framework that the US has increasingly relied on to confront transnational threats more aggressively under President Trump. If that framing sounds familiar, well, that's precisely the point. As you know, in February, the Trump administration applied the same terrorist label to Venezuela's trend. And back in November, Cartel de la Souls that opened the door for the ongoing US Military campaign targeting drug smuggling boats operating off Venezuela's coast. The Colombian cartel now finds itself in the spotlight and possibly in the crosshairs. For background. Clan Golfo, also known as AGC, is believed to have roughly 9,000 fighters, making it one of the South American country's most powerful armed groups. The organization traces its roots to paramilitary squads that fought Marxist guerrillas during Colombia's internal conflict in the 1990s and 2000s before morphing into a sprawling criminal enterprise deeply embedded in the cocaine trade. And its reach is extensive. According to Colombia's Human Rights Defender's Office, the cartel operates in roughly one third of the country's some 1100 municipalities, extorting businesses and in a variety of other activities, including recruiting children to carry out its smuggling operations. At one time, the Colombian Government says the group offered cash bounties for, quote, dead police officers, a detail that underscores how openly the cartel challenges the Colombian state. And in 2022, AGC demonstrated just how much leverage it holds, shutting down dozens of towns in northern Colombia for several days after its leader was extradited to the US But Bogota has attempted to fight back, with the country's security forces intensifying operations against the cartel over the past year, capturing more than 200 members and killing fighters, including senior figures. Yet despite those efforts, violence persists and frustration in Washington has continued to mount. That frustration has increasingly centered on Colombia's leftist president, Gustavo Petro. When we first discussed Petro back in September, the Trump administration listed Colombia's leadership as failing to cooperate in the drug war for the first time in nearly three decades, in what was a striking rebuke of a longtime US Ally that reflected a surge in cocaine production from Colombia. The pressure from Washington escalated further in October when the administration sanctioned Petro, accusing his socialist regime of allowing drug cartels to, quote, flourish and funnel cocaine into the US and the concern from Washington has only deepened as Petro pursues peace talks with Clan Golfo. In just a few weeks ago, the two sides signed an agreement in Qatar that would allow AGC fighters to assemble in designated zones in Colombia, giving members protection from prosecution. As peace talks continue weakening, of course, enforcement. Now, this terror designation by the White House does not grant automatic authority for American military strikes. It does, however, strengthen the legal foundation for the use of such force against those terrorist threats, meaning military operations are eventually possible. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon bulletin for Thursday 18th December. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and of course, to listen to the show ad free. Well, you can do that. It's very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting BDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.