PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 26th, 2024: Did Russian Air Defense Cause Deadly Azerbaijan Crash? & Pakistan Escalates Attacks On Taliban in Afghanistan

Summary

Summary of "PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 26th, 2024"

Host: Mike Baker
Podcast: The President's Daily Brief
Release Date: December 26, 2024

---

1. Azerbaijan Airlines Flight Crash: Possible Russian Air Defense Involvement

Timestamp: 00:42 - 05:27

Mike Baker opens the afternoon bulletin by addressing the tragic crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight over Kazakhstan on Wednesday, December 25th. The flight, en route from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia, experienced a distressing diversion over the Caspian Sea before ultimately crashing in western Kazakhstan, resulting in at least 38 fatalities. Remarkably, 29 passengers survived the fiery impact, with video footage captured by local witnesses showcasing the brutal landing.

Key Points:

• Cause of the Crash: Initial theories suggested a mid-air collision with birds. However, mounting evidence points to Russian military involvement. Ukrainian national security officials reported that intelligence indicates the flight was likely downed by Russian air defense systems. An aviation security firm, Osprey Flight Solutions, analyzed crash footage and identified shrapnel damage on the aircraft’s tail, inconsistent with a bird strike given the plane's cruising altitude.

  “Miraculously, as many as 29 passengers survived the fiery crash landing, which was captured by locals on video.” (00:42)

• Russian Involvement: By Thursday morning, sources confirmed to Reuters that the plane was indeed shot down by Russian air defenses. The plane's diversion over the Caspian Sea, deviating hundreds of miles from its intended path, remains unclear. Ukrainian officials suggest this was a deliberate maneuver by Russian authorities.

  “Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny, but failed to do so. The plane was damaged by the Russians and was sent to Kazakhstan instead of being urgently landed in Grozny to save lives.” (04:30)

• Context of Regional Tensions: The incident occurs amid intense aerial engagements between Russian air defenses and Ukrainian drones. The Russian Defense Ministry reported downing approximately 59 Ukrainian drones across several regions, leading to temporary suspensions of flights to Russia’s Kazan airport.

  “Taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft.” (04:15)

• Kremlin’s Response: The Russian government has so far downplayed the allegations, stating that such speculations are premature pending a full investigation. Kazakhstani officials have also refrained from assigning blame, maintaining that the cause remains unidentified.

Conclusion: The Azerbaijan Airlines crash underscores the escalating military tensions in the region, highlighting the precarious state of airspace control and the potential for tragic collateral damage amid ongoing conflicts.

---

2. Pakistan Escalates Military Actions Against the Taliban in Afghanistan

Timestamp: 07:33 - 11:50

Mike Baker transitions to the second major topic, detailing Pakistan's intensified military campaign against the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan or TTP) within Afghanistan's Paktika province. Late Tuesday night, Pakistan launched a series of airstrikes resulting in at least 46 deaths, predominantly among women and children, further straining relations with Afghanistan's Taliban-led government.

Key Points:

• Details of the Airstrikes: The targeted strikes aimed to dismantle TTP training facilities and strongholds in Paktika province. Pakistani military operations have increasingly focused on cross-border terrorism threats, a persistent issue exacerbated by deteriorating Islamabad-Kabul relations.

  “The strikes mark a significant development in Pakistan's ongoing battle with the terror group, which has intensified in recent months as relations between Islamabad and Kabul continue to deteriorate.” (08:45)

• Casualty Reports and Responses: The TTP claims responsibility, stating that 50 individuals, including 27 women and children, were killed. Conversely, the Afghan Taliban government attributes the casualties to refugees from Pakistan’s Waziristan region. Simultaneously, Pakistan’s Interior Ministry reported the elimination of 13 TTP militants in a separate operation in South Waziristan.

• Implications for Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations: The airstrikes reflect Pakistan's ongoing struggle to manage TTP threats while navigating its complex relationship with Afghanistan's Taliban administration. Islamabad accuses Kabul of harboring terrorists and failing to prevent cross-border attacks—a claim Kabul denies, asserting responsibility for preventing attacks on foreign soil.

  “For years, Islamabad has accused Kabul of providing safe haven for terrorists and failing to curb cross border attacks.” (09:30)

• Regional Stability Concerns: The mutual hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan heighten fears of a broader regional conflict. Recent TTP attacks, including the killing of 16 Pakistani soldiers in northwest Pakistan, underline the volatility and the urgent need for diplomatic resolutions to prevent further deterioration.

  “With mounting casualties and rising distrust, the already precarious relationship between these two neighbors appears to be unraveling.” (10:50)

Conclusion: Pakistan’s escalation against the TTP in Afghanistan represents a critical juncture in South Asian geopolitics, with significant ramifications for regional security and the delicate balance of power between neighboring nations.

---

Overall Insights and Implications:

Mike Baker’s briefing elucidates two significant geopolitical flashpoints: the potential involvement of Russian military forces in the Azerbaijan Airlines crash and Pakistan’s intensified military operations against the Taliban-aligned TTP in Afghanistan. Both events highlight the fragility of regional stability and the profound human cost associated with military conflicts. The analysis underscores the intricate interplay between national security strategies and international relations, emphasizing the necessity for vigilant monitoring and informed public discourse to navigate these complex challenges.

Notable Quotes:

• “Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny, but failed to do so. The plane was damaged by the Russians and was sent to Kazakhstan instead of being urgently landed in Grozny to save lives.” (04:30)
• “Taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft.” (04:15)
• “With mounting casualties and rising distrust, the already precarious relationship between these two neighbors appears to be unraveling.” (10:50)

---

For further inquiries or to comment on the bulletin, listeners are encouraged to reach out to Mike Baker at [e-mail].

Transcript

[Advertiser]

This episode is brought to you by Lifelock. The holidays mean more travel, more shopping, more time online and more personal info in places that could expose you to identity theft. That's why Lifelock monitors millions of data points every second. If your identity is stolen, their US Based restoration specialist will fix it, guaranteed or your money back. Get more holiday fun and less holiday worry with Lifelock. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com podcast terms apply.

[Mike Baker]

It's Thursday, the 26th of December. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. All right, it's to be fair, the late afternoon bulletin. I'm on the road still. It's the Where's Waldo? Game coming to you this week from East Asia. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First, we'll look at the deadly crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight over Kazakhstan on Wednesday as evidence mounts that it was likely caused by a Russian air defense system. Then Pakistan is escalating their fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan, unleashing a series of airstrikes that killed at least 46 people late Tuesday night. Now it's just the latest incident to raise tensions with the Afghan Taliban government, who not surprisingly, vowed retaliation. But first, our afternoon spotlight. We'll begin with a Christmas Day tragedy out of Kazakhstan where an Azerbaijan Airlines flight crashed on Wednesday in an incident suspected to be caused by Russian anti aircraft fire. The flight was heading from Baku in Azerbaijan to Grozny in Russia, but was diverted for unknown reasons over an area where Moscow's air defenses have been engaged in intense aerial battles with Ukrainian drones in recent weeks. After turning around and flying east over the Caspian Sea, the plane struggled to stay airborne and ultimately went down over western Kazakhstan, killing at least 38 people. And that's according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. Miraculously, as many as 29 passengers survived the fiery crash landing, which was captured by locals on video. Suspicions soon fell on Russia despite initial reports that the crash was caused by a mid air collision with a flock of birds. Ukrainian national security officials subsequently said that intelligence suggested the flight was likely downed by the Russian military. Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm, also conducted an initial assessment of the footage Wednesday evening, which they said implicated Russian military air defense systems due to what appeared to be shrapnel damage on the tail section of the airplane. They said such damage could not have been caused by birds, particularly when considering the altitude that the plane was flying at By Thursday morning. Four sources with knowledge of the preliminary findings of Azerbaijan's investigation confirmed to Reuters that the plane was indeed shot down by a Russian air defense system. They added that the plane's communications were paralyzed by electronic warfare systems as they attempted to approach Grozny and Chechnya, Russia. The circumstances surrounding the flight's diversion over the Caspian Sea, which took it hundreds of miles off its planned route, were not immediately clear, but officials in Kiev suggested it was due to a deliberate decision made by Russian officials. A senior national security official in Ukraine told the Wall Street Journal, quote, russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny, but failed to do so. The plane was damaged by the Russians and was sent to Kazakhstan instead of being urgently landed in Grozny to save lives. Ukraine's military has repeatedly targeted Russia's southern region over the past few months with military drones, a response to Moscow's relentless bombardment of Ukrainian cities. The attacks have regularly triggered Russian air defenses. And Wednesday was no different, with the Russian Defense Ministry claiming to have shot down some 59 Ukrainian drones over several regions. Some were down in closed airspace over regions bordering Ukraine. And flights to Russia's Kazan airport were temporarily suspended on Wednesday due to the activity. But the airspace where the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was traveling reportedly remained open. And Azerbaijani source told Reuters, quote, no one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft, end quote. Now, so far, the Kremlin is attempting to downplay the accusations, saying such speculations are inappropriate until the conclusion of the investigation. Leaders in Kazakhstan have also declined to place blame, saying on Thursday that the cause of the crash was still unknown. Coming up, Pakistan is escalating their fight against the Pakistani Taliban in Afghanistan, unleashing a series of airstrikes that killed at least 46 people late Tuesday night. We'll discuss the implications when we return.

Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, I want to talk to you about of my favorite things and that would be great cigars right now. If you're a regular PDB listener, and I hope you are, you know that when I'm talking cigars, I'm talking about the Foundation Cigar Company. They're craftsmen combining tradition with innovation to create some of the finest sticks on the market. Hopefully by now, after listening to me wax poetic every week about Foundation Cigars, you've wandered down to your local cigar shop to pick some up and make sure you give their latest offering a try. That would be the Wise Man, Corojo and Madura. These cigars are inspired by Nicaraguan heritage and handcrafted in collaboration with my father's cigars. They embody the rich flavors and bold character that cigar lovers crave. Look, they really are the perfect gift for your dad, for your brothers, your golfing or your poker buddies. And of course, don't forget some for yourself. Go get a few and have them on deck for your next gathering.

Right?

You'll be our hero. Ignite your senses and indulge in the artistry of these premium cigars from Foundation Cigar. You can check out their website foundationcigars.com and of course you can find them at your local cigar shop.

[Unknown Speaker]

You've been prescribed medication for BPH or enlarged prostate. You don't like the idea of a daily medication for the rest of your life. If you have to take it forever, is it really worth it? But that's what the doctor ordered and symptoms from BPH were negatively impacting your life. A weak flow, an urgent need to go interrupted sleep. Now you feel stuck between medications that aren't really doing the trick and the idea of invasive surgery. There may be another option, a minimally invasive procedure covered by most insurance called the Urolift System. The Urolift System may provide up to three times the symptom relief as a common BPH medication based on early data from a head to head study. Men 45 and over. Go to knowbphmeds.com to learn more and find a Urolift System trained doctor near you. Most common side effects are temporary and can include discomfort when urinating, urgency, inability to control the urge, pelvic pain and some blood in the urine. Rare side effects, including bleeding and infection, may lead to a serious outcome and may require intervention. The minimally invasive Urolift System go to.

[Mike Baker]

No bphmeds.com welcome back to the Afternoon Bulletin. Admittedly the late afternoon bulletin today Pakistan's military launched a series of airstrikes late Tuesday night on Afghanistan's Paktika province, leaving 46 people dead and and escalating tensions with the Afghan Taliban government, which vowed swift retaliation, according to an update from an Afghan government spokesman on Wednesday. Six additional people were wounded in the strikes, which killed mostly women and children. The strikes were reportedly aimed at dismantling training facilities and strongholds linked to the Pakistani Taliban, also known as the ttp, in Afghanistan. The strikes mark a significant development in Pakistan's ongoing battle with the terror group, which has intensified in recent months as relations between Islamabad and Kabul continue to deteriorate. For background, the ttp, while pledging allegiance to the Afghan Taliban, operates independently with a stated objective of imposing its version of Islamic law across Pakistan. This goal mirrors the governance style of the Afghan Taliban who've held power in Kabul since August of 2021 following the Biden administration's somewhat disastrous troop withdrawal. And when I say somewhat disastrous, I. I guess I mean disastrous. Pakistani security officials, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the operation to the Associated Press, said the strikes were part of broader efforts to neutralize cross border terrorist threats. However, conflicting casualty figures have further complicated the narrative. The TTP claimed that 50 people including 27 women and children were killed, while the Afghan Taliban government condemned the attack, insisting that many victims were refugees from Pakistan's Waziristan region, which borders Afghanistan's eastern Paktika Province, previously scarred by TTP terrorist attacks. Adding to the volatility of the situation, Pakistan's Interior Ministry announced the Same day that 13 TTP terrorists were killed during a separate intelligence based operation in South Waziristan. This series of events underscores Pakistan's long standing challenge in managing threats from the TTP while navigating its delicate relationship with Afghanistan's Taliban led administration. For years, Islamabad has accused Kabul of providing safe haven for terrorists and failing to curb cross border attacks. Allegations that the Afghan government denies claiming it doesn't allow attacks on foreign soil. Yet the facts on the ground paint a different picture. Terrorist activity within Pakistan has surged, leaving a trail of destruction and instability. Just last weekend, TTP terrorists killed at least 16 Pakistani soldiers during an assault on a checkpoint in the country's northwest. In March, Pakistan launched similar airstrikes in Afghanistan's border regions targeting TTP hideouts in an effort to stop the group's growing influence. With mounting casualties and rising distrust, the already precarious relationship between these two neighbors appears to be unraveling. Well even further. As Pakistan and Afghanistan escalate their rhetoric and military actions, fears are growing of a potential broader regional conflict. That, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Thursday 26th December. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@thefirst tv.com and of course to listen to the show ad free. Well, I think you know, it's simple. You just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com See, I told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, well, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.

[Ryan]

Hello, it is Ryan. And we could all use an extra bright spot in our day, couldn't we? Just to make up for things like sitting in traffic, doing the dishes, counting your steps. You know, all the mundane stuff. That is why I'm such a big fan of Chumba Casino. Chumba Casino has all your favorite social casino style games that you can play for free, anytime, anywhere with daily bonuses. So sign up [e-mail] that's chumbacasino.com sponsored by Chumba Casino.

[Advertiser]

No purchase necessary. VGW Group void where prohibited by law. 18/ Terms and Conditions apply.