Podcast Summary: The President's Daily Brief

Episode: PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 2nd, 2025

Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Date: December 3, 2025
Duration: ~15 minutes

Overview

This episode of "The President's Daily Brief" (PDB) Afternoon Bulletin, hosted by Mike Baker, focuses on two key international security concerns:

1. An in-depth investigation into alleged welfare fraud in Minnesota, possibly funneling taxpayer dollars through Somali money networks and inadvertently benefiting the terrorist group Al Shabaab.
2. An update on Ukraine’s ongoing campaign against Russia’s shadow oil tanker fleet, with the latest drone strike damaging a Russian-flagged tanker near Turkey.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Minnesota Welfare Fraud and Links to Al Shabaab

[00:45–06:58]

• City Journal Investigation:
  A major exposé by City Journal uncovers vast welfare fraud networks operating out of Minnesota. Allegedly, tens of millions of taxpayer dollars were funneled through “pop-up” service companies—many registered by individuals in Minnesota’s Somali-American community—claiming Medicaid-funded “housing support services” that were “minimal or entirely fictitious.”

• Broader Program Abuse:
  The fraud extended beyond housing support, with similar patterns identified in programs for autism therapy, mental health services, and food nutrition.

• Hawala Networks Explained:
  Fraud proceeds reportedly traveled overseas via hawala networks—informal, unregulated money transfer systems relying on clan/family trust, making tracing and oversight nearly impossible:

  “A customer hands over cash to someone in Minnesota, a phone call is made, and someone in Somalia pays out the equivalent amount. … No swift codes, no bank records, no formal oversight.”
  — Mike Baker [04:38]

• Alleged Links to Terror Financing:
  Some funds allegedly reached areas controlled by Al Shabaab in Somalia, where the group extorts or taxes money transfer services.
  No public indictments yet accuse anyone in Minnesota of intentionally funding terrorism; however, experts warn the effect is the same if US welfare is indirectly contributing:

  “If the source of that money is US Welfare programs, while the taxpayer ends up subsidizing a foreign terror organization.”
  — Mike Baker [06:02]

• Oversight Failures:
  The report suggests a breakdown in state oversight, with officials purportedly ignoring warnings and red flags—sometimes to avoid accusations of discrimination:

  “Not just the fraud itself, but the lack of political or bureaucratic willingness to acknowledge it…that, honestly, might be the most concerning part of all.”
  — Mike Baker [06:36]

• Open Questions:

  • How far does the fraud network extend?
  • How much money actually flowed overseas?
  • Are other states vulnerable?

  “This story is developing and we’re following it closely. … Still major unanswered questions…”
  — Mike Baker [07:13]

• Upcoming Interview Teaser:
  An upcoming PDB Situation Report will feature City Journal’s Ryan Thorpe, one of the article’s authors.

2. Ukraine Escalates Attacks on Russia’s Shadow Tankers

[09:55–13:50]

• Context & Background:
  Ukraine has been targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet”—tankers moving sanctioned Russian oil under false pretenses outside Western financial controls.

• Latest Attack:
  A third Russian-flagged tanker, the Midvolga 2, was hit by a naval drone about 80 miles off the Turkish coast. Previously, Ukraine had struck the Karos and Virod in Turkey’s exclusive economic zone.

• Significance of ‘Sunflower Oil’ Manifest:
  The Midvolga 2’s cargo manifest declared sunflower oil, but analysts suspect this as a cover for illicit oil shipments since such tankers routinely “switch flags, operate under shell companies, turn off their transponders and obscure their cargo origins through ship-to-ship transfers.”

  “In an ecosystem built on misdeclared cargoes and falsified paperwork and opaque ownership structures… on paper, yeah, it’s Sunflower Oil. In practice, it looks like a lot like a shadow fleet vessel.”
  — Mike Baker [11:51]

• Turkey’s Response:
  President Erdogan condemned the attacks as a “worrying escalation,” emphasizing concerns about navigational safety and environmental risks, and signaling Turkey’s intent to control its Black Sea corridor.

• Evolving Pattern:
  The attacks on three tankers within a week suggest Ukraine is shifting to a sustained campaign rather than sending a one-time message:

  “Three tankers in roughly a week—that’s beginning to look less like a signal and more like a pattern.”
  — Mike Baker [12:37]

• Strategic Stakes:
  According to a Helsinki-based think tank, over 100 shadow fleet vessels carried more than 12 million tons of Russian crude (worth $5B+) in nine months—fuelling Moscow’s war despite Western embargoes.

  “If Ukraine can steadily impose real risk on that network, it can squeeze the revenue stream that has proved resilient under sanctions.”
  — Mike Baker [13:22]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The possibility that even a fraction of US taxpayer money could have ended up in the hands of a terrorist organization makes this…more than a local scandal. It makes it a national security issue.”
  — Mike Baker [02:29]

• “It’s not just the fraud itself, but the lack of political or bureaucratic willingness to acknowledge it.”
  — Mike Baker [06:36]

• “On paper, yeah, it’s Sunflower Oil. In practice, it looks a lot like a shadow fleet vessel.”
  — Mike Baker [11:51]

• “Three tankers in roughly a week—that’s beginning to look less like a signal and more like a pattern.”
  — Mike Baker [12:37]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:45 – 06:58 | Minnesota Welfare Fraud & Al Shabaab Connections
• 06:58 – 07:41 | Unanswered Questions and Upcoming Interview with Ryan Thorpe
• 09:55 – 13:50 | Ukraine vs. Russia’s Shadow Tankers; Turkey’s Response; Strategic Analysis

Closing

Mike Baker wraps up by encouraging listeners to reach out with questions and inviting them to the upcoming in-depth interview with investigative reporter Ryan Thorpe.