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PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 30th, 2024: NATO's Stark Warning Over Moscow's Hybrid Warfare & Hopes For Democracy Dashed In Syria
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30 December welcome to the PDB afternoon bulletin. Okay, fair enough. Once again, it's the late afternoon bulletin. You could possibly even call it, depending on where you are, the early evening bulletin. But that's beside the point. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First, senior NATO officials have issued a stark warning about the growing threat posed by the Kremlin's shadow war against Ukraine's Western allies, which they say risks triggering a wider conflict. Then Syria's de facto leader announces it could be years before elections are held, dashing hopes for democracy in the near term for the war torn nation. But first, our afternoon spotlight. We'll begin in Europe where NATO leadership is sounding the alarm on Moscow's escalating campaign of hybrid warfare against Kiev's Western allies. Allies. James Apathurai, deputy assistant secretary general of NATO, warned Sky News in a recent interview that there is a, quote, real prospect for an unconventional attack by Russia against the alliance, such as an act of sabotage or arson that could result in mass casualties and put NATO on a path to war. Apathy, who is leading efforts in the alliance to better track and deter so called hybrid attacks, said NATO members must communicate clear red lines and response scenarios to the Putin regime to prevent a broader clash from erupting in Eastern Europe. As we've been covering here on the pdb, Russia has been waging a campaign of sabotage against allies of Ukraine across Europe since the war began, with attacks escalating in 2024. Russia's shadow campaign involves arson attacks, espionage, cyber attacks, targeted assassinations and the sabotage of critical infrastructure. It's aimed at destabilization, spreading panic among the European public and sowing doubts about supporting Ukraine. There's been a particular rise in what are called kinetic acts in recent months, such as the suspected sabotage of vital undersea power and data cables or plot by Russian agents, first reported on in early November to plant explosives aboard cargo planes bound for the US And Canada. Apathy, the NATO official, warned that any one of these acts could end up triggering a broader regional conflict, though it occurred before the war began in Ukraine. He also pointed to an attempt by the Kremlin to kill a Russian double agent and his daughter in the UK back in 2018, which involved using a large batch of Novichok chemical weapon that could have potentially killed thousands of people. Of course, that attempt on Sergei Skripal and his daughter was just one in a long string of targeted assassinations against Putin's enemies abroad over the years. Another, of course, was the infamous killing of Alexander Litvinenko, who died from polonium poisoning. In London, the NATO official said, quote, what really worries me is that one of these attacks will break through in a big way. There's a real prospect of one of these attacks causing substantial numbers of casualties or very substantial economic damage. He added, quote, what we don't want is to be in a situation where we have not thought through what to do next, end quote. Apathy said that NATO's 32 member states were already in what he described as a, quote, boiling frog situation. Now, I'm not sure if the term boiling frog translates well across all languages. He noted that Russian attacks have increased in a way that would have been utterly unacceptable five years ago, but said the alliance has, well, frankly gotten used to it, creating a climate that he called very dangerous. Nordic countries are particularly vulnerable and are already on high alert for potential Russian sabotage of power cables, wind turbines and gas pipelines. As we reported last Friday, an oil tanker from Russia's shadow fleet suspected of cutting an undersea power cable and several Internet cable lines on Christmas Day in the Baltic Sea is currently under surveillance. In an effort to not be caught flat footed by future Russian aggression, NATO is working to update its strategy on hybrid warfare, first written back in 2015, to clearly outline what type of attacks would end up triggering a full scale military response from the alliance. Apathy said, quote, what we need to do now is be clearer among ourselves and then decide how we communicate that also to the Russians that there are no go areas, end quote. Well, he's not the only one growing concerned about the current status quo. Senior officials in Kyiv are warning that Russia may escalate its hybrid warfare tactics beyond covert acts of sabotage and that NATO must do more to deter Moscow's belligerence before it's too late. On Sunday, the head of Ukraine's presidential office said, quote, impunity breeds permissiveness. This is the moment that requires strong decisions and strong actions, end quote. Coming up, it looks like hopes for democracy, at least in the short to midterm in Syria, might be fading as the nation's new de facto leader indicates it could be years before elections are held. We'll discuss the implications when we return. I'll be right back.
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Welcome back to the Afternoon Bulletin. Bad news for anyone who was hoping democracy would be coming to Syria anytime soon. As de facto leader, Ahmed Al Sharah outlined a roadmap that could delay elections by as much as four years. In an interview Sunday with a Saudi state owned outlet, Shirab, who leads the Islamist group hts, provided the most detailed timetable yet for Syria's political future since the group's ousting of the Assad regime. Earlier this month, the HTS leader revealed that drafting a new constitution alone could take three years, with significant changes expected within a year of its completion. As part of the reform process, Shirah pledged a shift away from militia style governance and announcing that HTS would dissolve during a national dialogue conference, stating a country cannot be run by the mentality of groups and militias, signaling a potential pivot towards governance by state institutions. The National Dialogue Conference, according to Schirra, would feature broad representation from Syrian society and include votes on pivotal issues such as parliamentary dissolution and constitutional reforms While this pledge has been welcomed by many, it does frankly little to alleviate concerns among minority groups in Syria wary of an Islamist led government. Western nations, while celebrating Assad's removal, of course, share these concerns, watching closely to see whether Shiraz promises of inclusivity will translate into action. In the interview, Shira emphasized that Syria's strategic ties with Russia would remain a cornerstone of its foreign policy. Interesting. Moscow, which provided Assad asylum after his downfall, continues to maintain a military presence in the country, including a couple of bases of significant strategic value to Moscow. Schirra hinted that the future of these bases would be subject to negotiation with the new leadership in Damascus, a point echoed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who confirmed ongoing discussions. In a surprising diplomatic overture, Sherra expressed optimism about the incoming administration of President Elect Trump. The HTS leader suggested that Washington might lift sanctions on Syria following visits by senior US Diplomats earlier this month who confirmed the removal of the $10 million bounty that had been placed on him, a reversal that signals a potential thaw in relationship. In response to a question regarding neighboring states concerns over Islamist groups, Shiraz stated, quote, we will not work on exporting the revolution. We want to manage the phase with the mentality of the state and not revolution. End quote. However, the Shiraz vision of a redefined domestic and international standing for Syria remains, well, aspirational at best, as the lengthy timeline for elections and constitutional reform underscores the challenges of rebuilding a fractured nation from the ashes of a 50 year long brutal family dynasty and a 13 year long civil war. And that, my friends is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Monday 30th December. Look at that. We are almost finished with 2024. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the firsttv.com and if your New Year's resolution is to listen to the PDB without ads, well, we're here to help. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting PDB premium.com Look at that. Keeping you informed and helping you with your resolutions all at the same time. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. It.