The President’s Daily Brief – Afternoon Bulletin

Episode: December 30th, 2025: Iranian Unrest Explodes & North Korea Goes Nuclear at Sea
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Date: December 30, 2025

Overview

This episode of The President's Daily Brief (Afternoon Bulletin) zeros in on two major international developments:

1. Widespread unrest in Iran driven by economic collapse and mounting political defiance.
2. North Korea’s unveiling of its first nuclear-powered submarine, signaling an escalation in regional military capabilities.

Host Mike Baker delivers analysis on what these headline events mean—both in the immediate sense and for broader geopolitical dynamics.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Iranian Unrest Reaches New Heights

(Main segment: 00:35 – 09:22)

• Multiplying Protests:

  • Protests, initially triggered by economic hardship, have spread to major cities (Tehran and other commercial hubs).
  • Notably, these demonstrations are “broader, more coordinated and more politically charged” than in recent years.
    • “What we're seeing now appears broader, more coordinated and more politically charged than many of the demonstrations Iran has faced in recent years.” (Mike Baker, 02:23)

• Economic Collapse as Catalyst:

  • Iranian currency is in freefall; historic lows have “gutted purchasing power and wiped out savings almost overnight.” (03:01)
  • Soaring inflation hits basics like food and fuel.
  • Protests have moved from the periphery to Iran’s core, with merchants in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar closing shops.
    • “When the bazaars close, it signals that unrest has moved from the margins into the core of Iranian society.” (Mike Baker, 03:52)

• From Economic Grievances to Political Defiance:

  • Chants and slogans now directly target Iran’s leadership, a pivotal shift in tone.
    • “Protesters aren't just demanding lower prices…Many are openly targeting the leadership itself, with slogans aimed at the regime and top figures.” (Mike Baker, 04:02)

• Regime Response and Pressure:

  • Authorities employ tear gas, beatings, and mass arrests—a familiar crackdown playbook.
  • Unusual signs of pressure:
    • Central bank chief resigns.
    • Officials hinting at a possible “dialogue with protesters”—rare and indicative of regime discomfort.
      • “That’s not something that Tehran typically offers unless it’s feeling boxed in.“ (Mike Baker, 05:08)

• Context and Historical Comparisons:

  • References the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, but notes today’s unrest is even more severe and more broadly felt due to compounded crises (sanctions, infrastructure woes, power, and water shortages).
    • “The economy is weaker. Sanctions continue to bite, and oil revenues are constrained. Infrastructure problems, power shortages, a severe water scarcity are leading to growing public frustration.” (Mike Baker, 06:18)
  • Recent conflict with Israel adds instability and shakes regime legitimacy.

• Power of the Security Apparatus:

  • Despite the mounting unrest, Baker emphasizes that regime change remains unlikely in the near term due to the IRGC’s entrenchment and willingness to use force.
    • “Its security apparatus remains powerful, loyal and experienced in suppressing dissent. The IRGC…has their hooks in every sector of society and the economy.” (Mike Baker, 07:18)

• Current State: Tense Stalemate

  • Both protesters and security forces are in a standoff, with the regime weighing whether brutal repression will suffice or if new tactics are needed.
    • “For now, the streets remain contested. Protesters are testing just how far they can push. Security forces are testing how much force they need to apply.” (Mike Baker, 08:20)

Key Quotes

• “This isn’t just another flash protest... What we're seeing now appears broader, more coordinated and more politically charged than many of the demonstrations Iran has faced in recent years.” (Mike Baker, 02:11)
• "When the bazaars Close. It signals that unrest has moved from the margins into the core of Iranian society." (Mike Baker, 03:52)
• “There's no indication, at least not yet, that the regime is on the brink of collapse. So far, this is just pressure, not a revolution.” (Mike Baker, 07:33)

Important Timestamps

• 00:35 — Episode overview and headlines
• 01:08 — Iran unrest begins: scope and initial details
• 03:45 — Bazaar protests and their significance
• 04:02 — Shift from economic to political demands
• 05:04 — Regime pressure points and rare government concessions
• 06:52 — Comparison with past protests (Mahsa Amini)
• 08:20 — Power dynamics and what’s next

2. North Korea Unveils Nuclear Submarine

(Main segment: 09:50 – 17:27)

• The Announcement:

  • North Korea releases photos (not a missile test) of Kim Jong Un inspecting a purported nuclear-powered submarine in an indoor facility.
    • “This one flew a bit under the radar, coming without a launch or a test, just photos. North Korea last week released images of what it claims is its first nuclear powered submarine…” (Mike Baker, 09:50)
  • The sub has not yet launched; not considered fully operational.

• Strategic Implications:

  • State media claim the submarine’s displacement is ~8,700 tons—comparable to U.S. Virginia-class attack subs.
  • Would represent a leap for North Korea’s obsolete, conventionally powered fleet.
    • “If that figure is even close to accurate, it would represent a jump for the North Korean Navy…” (Mike Baker, 11:09)
  • Nuclear-powered subs allow for near-indefinite submersion and considerable stealth/firepower advantages.

• Context & Motivations:

  • Kim Jong Un announced nuclear subs as part of a 2021 military plan.
  • Recent shifts:
    • South Korea, with U.S. backing, is working on its own nuclear subs—heightening urgency and competition.

• Regional Arms Race:

  • Nuclear submarine tech is an elite capability: only a few nations possess it (U.S., Russia, China, France, U.K., India).
  • North Korea’s move framed internally as a “leap forward in Korean naval power,” intended both for deterrence and strategic leverage.

• International Ties and Technology Transfers:

  • The timing and speed of North Korea’s progress may be influenced by deepening ties with Russia:
    • North Korea supplies weapons/munitions to Moscow (especially post-Ukraine invasion).
    • Russia, in return, reportedly provides weapons technology and possibly assistance with submarine development.
      • “This may be a perfect case study in how North Korea is benefiting from a closer relationship with Russia.” (Mike Baker, 16:17)

Key Quotes

• “According to the regime’s Korean Central News Agency, he argued that, quote, super powerful offensive capability is the best shield for national security.” (Mike Baker, 13:41)
• “While inspecting the submarine, Kim said the construction was, quote, a leap forward in Korean naval power.” (Mike Baker, 14:16)
• “This may be a perfect case study in how North Korea is benefiting from a closer relationship with Russia.” (Mike Baker, 16:17)

Important Timestamps

• 09:50 — North Korea claims nuclear sub milestone
• 11:09 — Technical significance and potential leap in capability
• 12:58 — Regional arms race and South Korea’s sub plans
• 13:41 — Strategic framing by Kim Jong Un
• 14:16 — Timeline comparison: Pyongyang ahead of Seoul
• 16:17 — Russia-North Korea military technology cooperation

Memorable Moments

• Playful Wordplay:
  • “It's beginning to look like that simmer may be starting to boil over. How's that for wordplay?” (Mike Baker, 01:30)
• Clear-eyed Realism:
  • Baker repeatedly cautions listeners to be realistic about the chances of sudden regime collapse in Iran:
    • “Still, it is important to be clear eyed here or pragmatic. The Islamic regime in Tehran is unlikely to disappear overnight because of some protests.” (Mike Baker, 07:00)

Summary Table: Key Events & Implications

| Event | What Happened | Implications | Timeframe | |-----------------------|---------------------------------|--------------------------------------|-------------------| | Iran Protests | Nationwide, economically- & political- driven unrest | Signals deeper, possibly lasting regime challenges; repression likely upcoming | Immediate, ongoing| | North Korea Submarine | Submarine images released, not yet deployed | Accelerates regional arms race, benefits from Russia ties | Sub completion possibly imminent |

Takeaways

• Iran:
  The regime faces genuine, multifaceted pressure—broader, sharper, and riskier than past cycles. However, Baker stresses the power and resolve of Iran's security apparatus and the IRGC; rapid regime change remains unlikely, but the situation is volatile.

• North Korea:
  The submarine reveal represents both a show of technological progress and a message to regional rivals. Ongoing Russia-North Korea cooperation intensifies the stakes and could speed up future military advances.

For Further Engagement

Listeners are encouraged to email questions or comments: pdb@thefirsttv.com

Host’s closing:
“That, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Tuesday 30th December… Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.” (Mike Baker, 17:27)