The President's Daily Brief – Afternoon Bulletin

Episode Date: February 12, 2026
Host: Mike Baker
Episode Theme:
A focused, analytical update on two urgent headlines: Cuba’s growing fuel crisis and looming collapse and the ongoing investigation into the airspace shutdown over El Paso. Host Mike Baker dissects fast-moving developments, explores their implications, and provides expert-driven context.

Main Topics Covered

1. Cuba’s Severe Fuel Shortage and Risk of Societal Collapse
2. Disputed Causes Behind the El Paso Airspace Shutdown

1. Cuba: Fuel Shortages Bring Nation to Brink

(00:14–07:40)

Overview

• Cuba is facing an unprecedented fuel crisis crippling its transportation, tourism, and basic infrastructure. Oil supplies have dwindled to critical levels due to an international pressure campaign, with the threat of a nationwide blackout by April.

Key Discussion Points

• On-the-Ground Impacts:

  • Airlines unable to refuel, causing flight cancellations.
  • Hotels, businesses close; workers furloughed.
  • Blackouts increasing; large parts of Havana in darkness.
  • Public transportation and school hours sharply reduced.
  • Quote, Mike Baker:
    “According to new reporting from the Wall Street Journal, the oil blockade appears to be grinding the country to a halt.” (01:17)
  • Only a trickle of oil since last major shipment on January 9th.
  • Venezuela's support ended after US-led removal of Maduro; Mexico halted oil under US pressure.
  • Russia, a major ally, calls the situation “truly critical.”

• Tourism Collapse:

  • Airlines warned they can’t be guaranteed jet fuel.
  • Russia’s Rossiya airline switching to outbound-only flights to retrieve tourists; Air Canada suspends all service.
  • Tourist arrivals—the government’s last main source of hard currency—collapsing.
  • Quote, Mike Baker:
    “If planes can’t refuel, well, tourists don’t arrive. If tourists don’t arrive, hotels, restaurants and retail businesses shut down.” (03:11)

• Economic and Societal Consequences:

  • Scenes of “empty roads in Havana, shuttered businesses and furloughed workers.”
  • Essential goods are becoming unaffordable.
  • Possible parallels to Venezuela, but:
    • No organized opposition or democratic infrastructure in Cuba.
    • Security services are “omnipresent” and government grip remains strong.
    • Pressure on regime may not lead to political change.

• Quote, Mike Baker:
  “It’s somewhat difficult for a government to survive if it can’t provide electricity, water and other basic essentials to its population. People do tend to lose patience.” (05:50)

Notable Moment

• Mike distinguishes Cuba’s crisis from Venezuela’s, noting the lack of a viable alternative to the current government in Cuba:
  • “One is not like the other. There is no defined opposition in Cuba, no one or no group to replace the current leadership.... Cuba’s security apparatus and intel service, well, they’re omnipresent. They’ve got a grip on every aspect of life.” (06:41)

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2. El Paso Airspace Shutdown: The Mystery Deepens

(13:57–20:26)

Overview

• A sudden and sweeping airspace shutdown over El Paso is now mired in conflicting explanations. Was it truly cartel drones, or something else entirely?

Key Discussion Points

• Initial Reporting:

  • On Tuesday, the FAA closed airspace over El Paso International Airport and Santa Teresa, NM, for a 10-mile radius and up to 10 days, citing “special security reasons.”
  • The Trump administration explained it by stating Mexican cartel drones breached U.S. airspace; military took action.

• Unusual Protocols:

  • Restriction covered all flights, including medical evacuation routes.
  • Language was unusually strong:
    • “The federal government, quote, may use deadly force against aircraft determined to pose an immediate security threat.” (15:13)
  • Yet, order reversed less than eight hours later.

• Raising Questions:

  • Local officials and the El Paso mayor received little warning.
  • Medical flights diverted; Senators Cruz and Cornyn requested classified briefings.
  • Quote, Mike Baker:
    “If this was a drone incursion, something border officials have dealt with for years, why did it trigger such a sweeping 10 day airspace restriction? And why was it reversed in less than eight hours?” (17:11)

• Emerging Alternative Explanation:

  • New reporting: shutdown may have been due to deployment of an anti-drone laser system by Customs and Border Protection with incomplete aviation coordination.
  • FAA’s safety assessment unfinished—agency warned activation near flight paths would necessitate a shutdown.
  • Personnel may have actually targeted a party balloon, not a cartel drone.
  • Memorable Moment:
    • Mike injects humor: “No words yet on what kind of party balloon. Personally, I’m hoping it was one of those balloons in the shape of a cartoon character, maybe Underdog or Mighty Mouse.” (19:30)

• Implications:

  • Points to lack of coordination between federal, military, and aviation authorities over airspace security.
  • Explains both the extreme initial restriction and its rapid reversal.

• Quote, Mike Baker:
  “The shutdown may not have been the FAA reacting in real time to cartel drones. It may have been the FAA responding to the sudden activation of counter-drone technology near a major airport before the safety review was complete.” (19:07)

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• "Cuba’s last major oil shipment arrived on January 9. Since then, deliveries have slowed to a trickle." (02:04)
• "But things on the streets are beginning to look grim for the average Cuban citizen." (05:40)
• “Cartels have used drones for years, obviously primarily inside of Mexico for surveillance... and in some cases, to carry out attacks against rivals.” (16:09)
• On the laser/balloon mixup: “Individuals briefed on the situation say CBP personnel believe they were targeting a cartel drone, but it was later determined to be a party balloon.” (19:20)

Conclusion / Takeaway

• Cuba: Approaching societal and economic collapse as fuel runs out, with little hope of quick political change due to the strong grip of the current regime and lack of opposition.
• El Paso: The dramatic airspace shutdown appears to have stemmed from confusion and lack of coordination over new anti-drone systems, rather than a cartel drone attack—shedding light on security and administrative gaps.

For those seeking to stay informed on fast-moving global developments, Mike Baker’s clear-eyed analysis provides rich, behind-the-headlines insight into both the practical effects on ordinary people and the broader geopolitical context.