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PDB Afternoon Bulletin | February 17th, 2026: Nuclear Talks End Fast As Iran Shuts the Strait of Hormuz & Israel Warns Hamas: Disarm...Or Else
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It's Tuesday, the 17th of February. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, U. S. Iran nuclear talks wrap up in just a matter of hours, raising doubts about real progress as Iran stages live fire drills in the Strait of Hormuz. I'll bring you the details later in the show. Israel delivers an ultimatum to surrender your weapons or prepare for another round of fighting. But first, today's afternoon spotlight talks between US And Iran and Geneva concluded quickly today, so quickly that many analysts are questioning whether anything meaningful was actually negotiated. Okay, well, my vote is no, nothing meaningful was actually negotiated, But I'm just speculating there. The second round of indirect nuclear talks wrapped up after roughly four hours, leaving diplomats and experts on both sides scratching their heads for negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, a dispute that has dragged on for years and took two and a half years to resolve in 2015. Well, four hours is a blink of an eye. Of course, that brief session fueled skepticism that any actual progress was made and reinforced the sense that the fundamental differences between Washington and Tehran remain, for the time being at least, irreconcilable. However, because it's diplomacy, and diplomats always speak in hopeful terms, even when they know it's crap, the messaging, at least from one side, isn't all negative. There are some faint signs of cautious optimism emerging from Geneva. Again, whether it's true or not, we're just telling you what's being said. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Arachi said, quote, the path for a deal has started and that his delegation and the US Side reached an understanding on, quote, the main principles of a potential agreement after what he described as very serious discussions. Sounds like someone's trying to buy time. He added that the atmosphere was constructive compared to prior meetings and. And that both sides will now begin working on draft texts before a third round of talks scheduled. Notably, there was no comment from the US Side following these latest indirect talks. The cautious optimism expressed by Aragchi did at least ease market nerves. Brent crude prices slid on the news that an understanding on guiding principles was reached, suggesting that traders saw at least tentative diplomatic momentum. Despite the happy talk from Iraqi Tehran continues to insist it will not accept zero uranium enrichment and wants negotiations limited strictly to the enrichment element of their nuclear program. Broader US Demands, including curbs on Iran's missile program and its regional posture through its proxy networks, remain unresolved. And Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei struck a defiant tone today, warning that Washington will not succeed in destroying the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, as Iran signals progress on the diplomatic front, whether real or not, we're seeing escalation on the military side. Iranian state media reported that parts of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil routes, were temporarily closed for several hours as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the irgc, conducted live fire drills. The closures were officially described as security precautions, but the timing was impossible to miss. The exercises coincided directly with with today's negotiations in Geneva. Nearly one fifth of the world's oil supply transits through the strait. Even a brief closure for military drills creates concern with both global markets and Washington about Iran's capability and willingness to disrupt energy flows should tensions escalate. These parallel tracks, diplomatic engagement in Geneva and military posturing in the Gulf, reveal a broader strategic pattern. Iran is staking out leverage even as it talks, while the US has signaled that failure to reach an agreement could trigger consequences and has simultaneously moved a significant military presence into the region. It looks like both sides are waiting for the other to blink. Now, you would think that with massive internal pressure from a crumbling economy and of course, an angry population, not to mention a significant U.S. military buildup in the region, well, you'd think that the Iranian regime might blink first. But there's nothing to say that the mullahs and their Revolutionary Guard Corps are actually sitting on the logic train. They're zealots consumed with maintaining their grip on power. Rational thinking may not be playing much of a role in their current decision making. Alright, coming up next, Israeli officials warn hamas disarm within 60 days or or face renewed Israeli military operations. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with an important message for homeowners. Now, if you're a homeowner like me, you know that things never break around the house when it's convenient, right? You know what I'm talking about. The heater conks out in the dead of winter or the AC system gives out in the middle of summer. Look, we ensure our health and we insure our cars, but our biggest investment often isn't covered for everyday breakdowns. And, and frankly, homeowners insurance usually leaves you paying out of pocket for repairs. That's why I want to thank HomeServe for sponsoring this episode. They offer subscriptions with 24,7 access to trusted local contractors who handle problems fast. 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Or just go to jordanharbinger.com start to dive right in. It's one of those podcasts that makes you smarter, so give it a go. Welcome back to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. There's a new ultimatum on the table for Hamas, and it's fairly straightforward. Fully disarm within 60 days or Israel goes back on the offensive in the Gaza Strip. Israeli officials say the window comes at the request of the Trump administration. Now, speaking in Jerusalem, Cabinet Secretary Yossi Fuchs laid it out. He said that President Trump's administration asked for a 60 day period for Hamas to surrender its weapons, and Israel agreed to that timeline. Fuchs stressed that even rifles would be taken from them, entirely, rejecting some media reports that suggest the terror group might be allowed to keep light arms. Then came the bottom line from the Israeli cabinet secretary. If it works, great. If not, then the IDF will have to complete the mission. In other words, this will not be another phased surrender. As we've seen in the ceasefire, it's total demilitarization or a return to war. And Fuchs went even further, calling it a reasonable estimate that before Israel's next election, which is scheduled for October but potentially could be moved up to June, one of two outcomes will be in either Hamas will have disarmed or Israeli forces will be in the midst of an intensive new campaign in Gaza. Now, there's still uncertainty about when the 60 day clock begins. Fuchs suggested it could coincide with Thursday's Board of Peace conference. Either way, Israeli officials say Hamas has a clear timeline for compliance. But even as Israel says it is honoring the 60 day framework, some officials in the Jewish state believe Hamas is moving in the opposite direction. British news outlet the Times reports that Hamas has begun covertly collecting weapons from civilians in Gaza. According to an Israeli security source, the group has set up checkpoints in areas it controls to gather light arms from residents. A senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv said the effort to create a, quote, proxy stockpile creates a semblance of disarmament, while Hamas themselves do not dismantle their arsenal, end quote. Now, according to Israeli officials, the directive to consolidate weapons came directly from Hamas leader Izzaldin al Haddad, and the scale of that arsenal is not small. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said this week that Hamas still holds roughly 60,000 rifles in Gaza. Israeli intelligence estimates put the broader stockpile at up to 90,000 weapons, including sniper rifles, grenades, improvised explosive devices, and weapons taken from Israeli forces. Netanyahu has made clear that disarmament cannot be selective. He said disarmament means Hamas must give up its weapons, not just its main weapons. The one that does the most damage, he said, is called an AK47, end quote. Historically, those arms have flowed into Gaza through the Rafah tunnel network alongside the Sinai Peninsula and through black market purchases involving Israeli intermediaries. Although Israel now controls the Gaza Egypt border, Hamas continues to rely on tunnels to conceal weapons and is reportedly attempting to revive underground workshops. Fuchs said dismantling Hamas's tunnel infrastructure would be essential to any lasting demilitarization. And it's important to note that the pressure isn't just coming from Jerusalem and Washington. Nikolai Mladinov, the Bulgarian diplomat serving as Director General of Trump's Board of Peace, said terrorists in Gaza need to be disarmed. There's no other option unless we want to see a return to war or a continuation of the misery that is today, end quote. But Hamas is of course, rejecting the premise of the 60 day deadline. A senior official from the terror group told Al Jazeera that he received no such information from mediators and described the Israeli statements as, quote, merely threats with no basis in the ongoing negotiations, end quote. While Hamas endorsed Trump's 20 point peace plan in principle, its statement included significant conditions that did not explicitly commit to disarmament. And that's the core tension, of course. Israelis made clear that reconstruction of Gaza will not move forward unless Hamas relinquishes its weapons. The ceasefire framework hinges on compliance. If Hamas disarms, there is a path forward. If it refuses, well, Israeli officials are signaling that the military campaign will resume. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Tuesday 17th February. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and of course, if you'd like to listen to the show ad free, you are certainly able to do that. It's very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Foreign. Baker here. Let me take just a moment to talk about personal finances and reaching your financial goals, right? That's very important. So let's be honest, for many folks right now, it can seem like the math just isn't adding up. You know what I'm talking about. Between the grocery store bills and utility bills and gas bills and skyrocketing insurance premiums, they can be tough to make ends meet. Even with a steady job, more and more families are being forced to rely on high interest credit cards to cover expenses. So if you're a homeowner caught in that cycle carrying balances with interest rates in the 20s or even 30s, well, it's time to get some relief. American Financing is helping homeowners pay off that high interest debt at rates in the low fives. 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