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PDB Afternoon Bulletin | February 18th, 2026: Inside Rubio’s Secret Talks Over Cuba’s Future & & Ukraine Negotiations Stall
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It's Wednesday, the 18th of February. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, we're getting a revealing look at the Trump administration's quiet strategy for Cuba as Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly opens back channel discussions not with Havana's president, but with Raul Castro's grandson. I'll have the details later in the show. Another round of U. S. Russia, Ukraine peace talks comes and goes with few tangible results and no clear path forward. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. Today we're getting a new look into the Trump administration's plans, possibly for the future of Cuba and more importantly, who they believe actually controls it. According to a new Axios report, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been holding quiet discussions not with Cuba's sitting president, that would be Miguel Diaz Canel, but with the grandson of the island's aging revolutionary strongman, Raul Castro. Now, as an aside, Raul Castro is now 95 years old. He served as the president of Cuba from 2008 to 2018, taking over from his older brother, the dictator Fidel Castro, who died back in 2016. The administration appears to believe that despite formal titles in Havana, the real authority still runs through the Castro family network. And if you're planning for Cuba's future, that's where you start. Or at least that apparently is where the White House has started. Rubio's reported counterpart is Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, known as Rolito, the grandson of Raul Castro and the grand nephew of late dictator Fidel Castro. He's also known by the nickname El Congrejo or the Crab, reportedly due to a deformed finger. That might be slightly more information than you need. The 41 year old grandson once served as his grandfather's bodyguard and is connected to the military controlled business conglomerate that dominates major sectors of the Cuban economy. But unlike the revolutionary old guard, Raulito is viewed by some analysts as part of a younger generation that's less ideological and more transactional. Men who grew up inside the system, but understand that revolutionary orthodoxy does not keep the lights on. These aren't being described as formal negotiations, by the way. One administration official characterized them as, quote, discussions about the future. The Trump administration has made it clear its view the regime has to go. But according to Axios, what replaces it and who remains standing at the end of all of this is of course still being decided. Now, this is all happening in the context of what took place in Venezuela just last month when US Forces captured indicted strongman Nicolas Maduro in a pre dawn operation. Cuban intelligence and Cuban military officers guarding him were reportedly killed. American forces suffered no losses. That operation reportedly seriously shook the leadership in Havana. It demonstrated not only U.S. capabilities, but also the U.S. s intention of shaping the future of Latin America. And then came the ongoing oil squeeze. As we've reported, Venezuela stopped supplying crude to Cuba after Maduro's capture. Mexico has now pulled back shipments following tariff threats from President Trump. Washington has warned other suppliers against filling the gap. The result? Well, the result is Cuba is now running on fumes. Fuel shortages continue to cascade through daily life. The power grid is failing. Hospitals are limiting surgeries. Blackouts are spreading. Tourism is drying up. And now the garbage is piling up in Havana. Trash collection has slowed dramatically because trucks don't have fuel. Streets are seeing growing sanitation problems. And at the same time, Cuban drivers are facing months long waits just to refuel their cars. The government has made it mandatory to use a state run app called Ticket to secure gasoline appointments. Well, this sounds efficient. Some drivers report thousands of names ahead of them in the queue. Okay, not that efficient. Gas stations are issuing as few as 50 appointments per day. Even when drivers finally reach the pump, they're capped at 20 liters, just over 5 gallons. Meanwhile, subsidized gasoline sold in local currency has been halted. Fuel is now priced in US dollars. It's around $1.30 per liter at official stations and up to $6 per liter on the black market. For government workers earning the equivalent of less than $20 a month, well, that's devastating. Airlines can no longer refuel reliably on the island. Some are stopping in the Dominican Republic instead. And banks are shortening hours to conserve electricity. And against that backdrop, Rubio is talking not to the Communist Party old guard, but to the air apparent inside the Castro orbit. The reasoning is if the regime fractures, Washington wants a communications channel. If there's a managed transition, Washington wants influence. And if someone inside the system decides the or old revolutionary model has run its course. Washington wants that conversation to already be underway. Some analysts believe the administration could replicate aspects of its Venezuela playbook, removing key figures while leaving parts of the governing structure intact to avoid chaos. But here's the rub. Cuba, as I've mentioned before here on the pdb, is not Venezuela. There's no strong opposition movement waiting in the wings. The state apparatus is deeply entrenched. And opposition hardliners in both Havana and Miami would no doubt seriously object if members of the Castro family were allowed to remain under any deal. President Trump has not made a final decision on Cuba's future. Of course, his focus remains on larger geopolitical flashpoints. But the squeeze is clearly on, and the lines of communication are reportedly already open. All right, coming up next, the third round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia concludes. And the war grinds on with little evidence that diplomacy is gaining much traction. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a message for dog lovers. Now, if you're like me, dogs are an important part of family life, right? We've got two of them here at the Baker compound. Our golden retriever, Hendricks, he's a good old boy now in his 14th year. And of course, Monty, are a very cute but slightly dim King Charles spaniel. 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That's 50% off your first order at Sundays for dogs.com Pdb50 Sundays for dogs.com PDB50 or use code PDB50 at checkout. Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment to talk about personal finances and reaching your financial goals. So let's be honest, many folks, it seems like currently the math just doesn't add up. You know what I'm talking about. Between the grocery store bills, the gas bills, those skyrocketing insurance premiums, it can be tough to make ends meet. Now, even with a steady job, more families are being forced to rely on high interest credit cards just to cover expenses. So if you're a homeowner caught in that cycle, I mean carrying balances with interest rates in the 20s or even the 30s, well, it's time to get some relief. American Financing is helping homeowners pay off that high interest debt at rates in the low fives. Their salary based mortgage consultants build exit strategies to help you get out from that debt. On average, they're saving their customers $800 a month. Plus if you start today, you may even delay the next two mortgage payments. There are no upfront fees. Just to find out how much you can save, America's home for home loans is American Financing. The number is 866-885-1881. That's 866-885-1881 or just visit american financing.net PDB Hey PDB Listeners, Mike Baker here with a quick recommendation for your podcast playlist. Look, if you like deep, insightful conversations with world class thinkers and who doesn't come on, check out the Jordan Harbinger Show. It's available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen. Jordan sits down with people who've been in the room at the highest levels, from national security leaders to thinkers reshaping how we understand the world. You'll hear ideas and stories that go way beyond the usual sound bites. Two episodes. I'd recommend an interview with our friend Ryan Macbeth on Venezuela's collapse. That's a clear look at how a once wealthy oil state unraveled and what that means of course, for regional stability. And also his conversation with Douglas Murray where they explore the pressures facing Western democracies and what those trends mean for long term stability. Download the Jordan Harbinger Show. That's H A R B I N G E R Just like it sounds on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your shows. Or just go to jordanharbinger.com start to dive right in. It's one of those podcasts that makes you smarter, so give it a go. Welcome back to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. The third US brokered push for peace between Ukraine and Russia moved into its Second day in Geneva, but it did not last long. After just two hours, the session ended with the core disputes over territory and security still unresolved. That two hour timeframe is telling. As we discussed on today's pdb, negotiators had been locked in discussions for six hours just the day before, talks that Russian sources described as, quote, very tense. And if you zoom out further, earlier rounds in Abu Dhabi also failed to produce a peace settlement. Of course, Kyiv and Moscow, well, they keep returning to the table, but the gap between them doesn't appear to be narrowing. So what exactly, you ask, is keeping these negotiations moving forward? Well, for starters, expectations for progress were already low. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described the latest session as, quote, difficult, acknowledging that progress had been discussed, but emphasizing that positions still differ. Earlier in the day, he accused Moscow of deliberately dragging out discussions that, from Kiev's perspective, could already be nearing a final stage. In other words, Ukraine believes Russia is slowing the process while maintaining pressure on the front lines. And that takes us to the heart of the impasse, which, as you likely know, is territory. As has been consistently the case with Russia continues to demand control over major parts of eastern Ukraine, including the Donbass region, which it does not currently fully occupy. Zelensky has been crystal clear that any proposal requiring Ukrainians to surrender land not actually held by Russian forces would be rejected if put to a national referendum. But territory isn't the only issue. Ukraine is also pressing for long term Western security guarantees to prevent any future Russian aggression. Without credible guarantees, any ceasefire is simply a piece of paper sitting on top of a powder keg. Moscow has pushed back hard, insisting that any arrangement cannot include Western troop deployments, a plan drawn up by several Western governments. Still, Kyiv argues its European allies must play a greater role in the process, calling their involvement indispensable, while EU capitals remain largely absent, at least for the time being, from efforts to push for a peace deal. But layered on top of all of this is renewed public pressure from President Trump, once again directed at Kyiv. As in earlier phases of his effort to force movement, Trump is signaling urgency from Ukraine's side, arguing that momentum must come from the party defending its sovereignty. Now, frankly, this is part of the ongoing pattern of behavior from the White House, alternately declaring that Kyiv is the problem and venting frustration with Zelenskyy and then pointing at Moscow and showing frustration and impatience with Putin. Apparently right now, well, it's Zelensky's turn. From Washington's perspective, the goal is to accelerate negotiations before battlefield dynamics harden even further. Now this latest push hasn't spiraled into the kind of open friction that we saw during last year's White House spat between the two leaders, but it has again placed Zelensky in the position of balancing Moscow's demands with the Trump administration's expectations. In recent days, Trump said, quote, ukraine better come to the table fast. That's all I'm telling you. Zelensky pushed back. Well, that's not a surprise. In an interview with Axios, calling the president's demands, quote, not fair to urge concessions from Ukraine rather than from Russia. After all, well, this is Putin's invasion. I mean, Moscow is responsible for this tragic almost five year message. When you step back, the dynamic of negotiations becomes clear. Diplomacy on one track, the grinding military campaign on the other as the war enters its fifth year. So while negotiations may be active, sort of, there appears to be no resolution in sight. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Wednesday 18th February. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, you likely know me as the host of the President's Daily Brief. I mean, hopefully you do know me as the host of the pdb, but. But did you know I'm also quite the expert on romance and gift giving? It's true. I'm constantly fielding questions like, Mike, what should I get my wife or girlfriend to show I care? Well, when you want to show a little love to that special someone, here's my top tip. Just go to Cozy Earth. It's right there in the name. Cozy. That's what they're all about. If you haven't been shopping at Cozy Earth, I have no idea what you're doing with your time. For instance, their bamboo pajama set. Right? It's a total sleep upgrade.
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