The President's Daily Brief (Afternoon Bulletin)

February 24th, 2026: Intel Warning — Iran Preparing Strikes in Europe & Moscow’s Trojan Network

Host: Mike Baker | Date: February 25, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode of The President’s Daily Brief (Afternoon Bulletin) focuses on two major security alerts facing the West:

1. Heightened warnings from Western intelligence that Iran may be preparing to direct terror attacks in Europe if the U.S. launches strikes against Tehran.
2. Reports that Russia is building a clandestine network across Europe by purchasing properties near key infrastructure, potentially for future sabotage.

Host Mike Baker, a former CIA Operations Officer, contextualizes these developments within recent history and notes the potential implications for both American and Western security interests.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Elevated Iranian Threat in Europe

• Context: U.S. and Western agencies are actively monitoring signs that Iran could orchestrate terror attacks against American and allied targets in both Europe and the Middle East should the U.S. strike Iran.
  • Multiple security sources indicate increased electronic intercepts and communication “chatter” pointing to possible operational coordination.
  • “Officials say they have not identified any specific operational plots...but the warning signs are sufficient to issue relevant alerts.” — Mike Baker (02:06)
• Potential Triggers: If President Trump authorizes military strikes—large or limited—Iran could respond through asymmetric means and proxy groups.

Groups Under Scrutiny

• Hezbollah:
  • Intelligence agencies fear sleeper cells in Europe could target U.S. embassies, military bases, or other interests.
  • Reference: 2012 Bulgaria Bus Bombing, which led to the EU labeling Hezbollah’s military wing as a terrorist organization.
  • In 2024, British intelligence revealed over 20 Iran-backed plots uncovered in the UK in a single year.
  • “Hezbollah’s infrastructure, networks and precedent for operating in Europe already exist.” — Mike Baker (04:14)
• Houthis (Yemen):
  • Could resume attacks on Western commercial shipping in the Red Sea, threatening global trade routes.
• Al Qaeda:
  • Despite ideological differences (Shia Iran vs. Sunni Al Qaeda), Iran has previously tolerated or leveraged Al Qaeda operatives for strategic reasons.
  • Possibility of “convergence of convenience” in the event of conflict to hit common adversaries.

Why Europe?

• Operational reasons:
  • Closer proximity to the Middle East, dense urban centers, and years of permissive EU immigration policies with limited vetting.
  • European intelligence often perceives a “softer terrain” compared to the U.S.
  • “Europe...has had permissive open borders and immigration policies for years, with very little vetting or understanding of who they've been allowing in.” — Mike Baker (07:03)
• Political dimension:
  • Goal may include fracturing Western unity and shifting public opinion.
  • Reference: 2004 Madrid train bombings, which reshaped Spain’s election and policy in Iraq.
  • “Mass casualty attacks in Europe can shift public opinion, alter elections, and strain alliance commitments.” — Mike Baker (08:29)
• Current Assessment:
  • Warnings remain general; no known active plots or timelines.

2. Moscow’s Trojan Network: Russian Property Acquisitions

• Context: Western intelligence is warning that Russia may be secretly acquiring properties around Europe, especially near critical military and civilian infrastructure—potentially building a clandestine sabotage network.
  • These are not random investments: Locations are tied to military bases, energy grids, communication hubs, and major transport corridors.
  • “Moscow appears to have exploited loopholes and ownership laws to acquire properties near military installations, energy grids, communications hubs, and strategic transport corridors.” — Mike Baker (12:08)

Tactics & Intent

• Properties could conceal equipment (drones, explosives, communication gear) for use in future operations.
• Since the invasion of Ukraine (2022), Europe has seen a surge in sabotage: arson, parcel bombs, assassination plots, and train derailment attempts.
• These incidents are viewed as potential rehearsals probing Western defenses.
  • “This is not about armored columns rolling west, it’s about operating in the so-called gray zone.” — Mike Baker (13:10)
• MI6 Chief Blaise Metruali:
  • Quote: “Operating in a space between peace and war, saying Russia is testing Western resolve just short of direct conflict.” (13:49)
• Ukrainian President Zelensky:
  • Considers Putin’s current campaign as “a third world war against the West through sustained hybrid pressure.” (13:59)

Case Studies & Examples

• Finland (2018):
  • Finnish authorities raided properties owned by a Russian-linked company near maritime routes and naval command; found military-grade infrastructure and communication equipment.
  • Since then, Moscow's approach appears more diffuse—many small properties across the Nordic region.
• Norway:
  • Russians have purchased cabins near Arctic military sites, with the Russian Orthodox Church buying houses near key bases and radar facilities in Norway and Sweden.
• Southern Europe & Major Cities:
  • Intelligence flags acquisitions near naval facilities in Sicily, Crete, and mainland Greece, as well as sensitive properties in London, Paris, and Geneva.
• UK Vulnerability:
  • Risks include surveillance/strikes near MI6 HQ, the US embassy, and crucial deterrence platforms like the Trident submarine base in Scotland.

Strategic Implications

• Russia’s goal may extend beyond espionage—toward capacity for rapid sabotage in a crisis:
  • “Drone launches from legally owned warehouses, power substations disabled from properties purchased years earlier, and communications severed from buildings that never drew attention.” — Mike Baker (15:04)
• Government Response:
  • Finland and Baltic states imposed near-blanket bans on Russian property purchases.
  • UK revoked diplomatic status and investigated suspicious estates.
  • An EU-wide ban failed over economic concerns.
  • “Efforts remain fragmented… a proposed EU-wide ban… collapsed amid resistance from member states concerned about economic fallout.” — Mike Baker (15:14)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iran’s Proxy Network:
  • “Hezbollah’s infrastructure, networks and precedent for operating in Europe already exist.” — Mike Baker (04:14)
• On Security Challenges in Europe:
  • “Europe...has had permissive open borders and immigration policies for years, with very little vetting or understanding of who they've been allowing in.” — Mike Baker (07:03)
• On Terrorism’s Political Impact:
  • “Mass casualty attacks in Europe can shift public opinion, alter elections, and strain alliance commitments.” — Mike Baker (08:29)
• On Russia’s Threat:
  • “This is not about armored columns rolling west, it’s about operating in the so-called gray zone.” — Mike Baker (13:10)
  • MI6 Chief Blaise Metruali: “Operating in a space between peace and war, saying Russia is testing Western resolve just short of direct conflict.” (13:49)
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky: “A third world war against the West through sustained hybrid pressure.” (13:59)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening / Iran Plot Warnings: 00:12 – 08:55
• Analysis: Iran’s Proxy Capabilities: 02:00 – 07:30
• Why Europe is Targeted: 07:03 – 09:09
• Historical Precedents (Madrid Bombing): 08:20 – 09:09
• Transition to Russia Segment: 09:09 – 10:00
• Russia’s Property Network Detailed: 12:08 – 15:26
• Examples (Finland, Norway, UK): 13:45 – 15:19
• Government Responses & Conclusion: 15:14 – 15:26

Conclusion

This episode delivers an incisive look at evolving threats from Iran and Russia. Baker effectively connects current intelligence warnings with historical context and strategic analysis, highlighting the complex interplay of military, political, and clandestine operations shaping Western security.

Final thought:
Mike Baker cautions listeners to stay informed as these evolving and hybrid threats demand vigilance and nuanced policy responses from Western governments.