The President's Daily Brief – Afternoon Bulletin

Date: February 26th, 2026
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Podcast: The President’s Daily Brief – The First TV

Overview

In this episode, Mike Baker delivers concise intelligence-style briefings on two key global events impacting U.S. and international security:

1. A deadly shootout involving Cuban forces and a U.S.-registered boat off Cuba’s northern coast, amid charges of terrorist infiltration.
2. New evidence that Moscow is orchestrating mass migration into Europe via covert tunnels built with foreign expertise, as part of a broader hybrid warfare campaign against the EU.

Baker unpacks not just the details but also the political implications and intelligence gaps surrounding each event, staying true to his "eyes and ears on the world stage" approach.

1. Maritime Shootout: Cuba Opens Fire on U.S. Boat

Segment Starts: [00:12]

Key Points

• Incident Details

  • A Florida-registered speedboat carrying ten armed individuals (all Cuban nationals residing in the US) entered Cuban territorial waters near the El Pino Channel, Villa Clara province, early Wednesday morning.
  • According to the Cuban government, the group exchanged gunfire with the Cuban coast guard, resulting in four deaths and six injuries among the boat’s occupants.

• Alleged Objectives

  • Cuban authorities claim the group intended “armed infiltration for terrorist purposes.”
  • Seized items reportedly included assault rifles, handguns, Molotov cocktails, bulletproof vests, telescopic sights, and camouflage uniforms.
  • Most detainees allegedly have criminal histories and are wanted for previous terror-related activity.

• U.S. Response

  • U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have acknowledged the incident and are conducting an independent investigation.
  • Emphasis on caution: “A dose of skepticism is warranted when evaluating what we know so far.” – Mike Baker [01:26]

Political and Media Reaction

• Skepticism Toward Cuban Narrative

  • Most information originates from Havana, currently unverified by independent sources.
  • The identity and motivations of the group remain unclear: “Were these weapons smugglers, drug runners, or, or was this the most ham fisted attempt at a Bay of Pig style incursion that we've seen since, well, since the Bay of Pigs?” – Mike Baker [03:27]

• Florida Lawmakers’ Response

  • Broad bipartisan calls for thorough investigation.
  • Demands for clarity on U.S. citizenship status of the deceased and integrity of Cuban government statements.

• Geopolitical Context

  • Incident takes place against rising tensions between the Trump administration and Havana, especially after new oil shipment restrictions.

Notable Quotes

• Mike Baker [01:54]: “Secretary Rubio described a shootout in the open sea as, quote, highly unusual. Well, that's true, adding that the Department of Homeland Security and the US Coast Guard are investigating.”
• Mike Baker [03:27]: “At this stage, we have no clear picture of the boat's occupants or their intentions. I mean, were these weapons smugglers, drug runners, or, or was this the most ham fisted attempt at a Bay of Pig style incursion that we've seen since, well, since the Bay of Pigs.”

2. Russia’s Asymmetric Migrant Pressure Campaign

Segment Starts: [11:42]

Key Points

• Weaponization of Migration

  • Russia and Belarus have long used migration as a hybrid warfare tactic to destabilize Europe; now evidence surfaces of covert tunnels under the Polish/Belarusian border.
  • Polish authorities discovered four such tunnels last year alone, constructed to literally ferry migrants under a 125-mile steel fence built to reinforce the border.

• Technical Details

  • Largest tunnel: Found in December; used by roughly 180 migrants (mainly from Afghanistan and Pakistan), with 130 detained upon exit.
  • Structure: Under 5ft high, 160ft long on the Belarusian side, extending 30ft into Poland, the entrance concealed deep in forest—supported by concrete framing.

• Expert Construction

  • Polish officials believe Belarus recruited tunnel specialists from the Middle East, able to create sophisticated passages.
  • Intelligence experts speculate possible involvement from Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and possibly ISIS, though public proof is lacking.

• Broader Russian Strategy

  • Warsaw interprets the tunnels and organized migration as part of Moscow’s asymmetric playbook: exerting pressure, destabilizing Europe, and punishing Western support for Ukraine, all without direct military confrontation.
  • “Russia doesn't need tanks rolling across borders to create instability. It applies pressure in other ways... migration used as a destabilizing act.” – Mike Baker [12:16]

Attribution and Analysis

• Responsibility is ultimately ascribed to Belarusian President Lukashenko's regime, acting in close alignment with Russian strategic interests.
• Expert Commentary features Dr. Lynette Newsbucker (US military historian), Major Rob Campbell (UK, former army sapper), and former Israeli intelligence officials, all noting the technical sophistication of the tunnels and possible Middle Eastern connections.

Notable Quotes

• Mike Baker [12:16]: “Russia doesn't need tanks rolling across borders to create instability. It applies pressure in other ways, such as drone incursions or sabotage. And increasingly, migration used as a destabilizing act.”
• Mike Baker [15:20]: “Responsibility rests with Lukashenko's regime, a government that repeatedly acts in tandem with the Kremlin to destabilize the European Union.”

Memorable Moments & Tone

• Skepticism and Dry Humor
  • Baker’s quip wondering if the sea-based incident off Cuba was “the most ham fisted attempt at a Bay of Pig style incursion that we've seen since, well, since the Bay of Pigs.” [03:27]
• Intelligence Perspective
  • Consistent reminders to critically assess one-sided narratives, especially when only adversary reporting exists.
  • Use of military and intelligence sources layered in with concise background for context.

Key Timestamps

• 00:12: Show opens with headline summaries and first details of the Cuba shootout.
• 01:26–04:00: Breakdown of Cuba’s official story, U.S. response, and debate over narrative credibility.
• 11:42: Transition to Russia’s migrant “weaponization” and tunnel revelations.
• 12:16: Technical and political analysis of Russia’s hybrid tactics.
• 15:00–16:00: Expert speculation on tunnel engineering and final assessment of Belarusian culpability.

Summary

This PDB Afternoon Bulletin offers a concise yet rich intelligence primer on two global flashpoints: an unexplained and deadly Caribbean maritime clash fueling U.S.–Cuba tensions, and Moscow’s subterranean efforts to destabilize Europe via migration. Mike Baker, maintaining a cautious, analytic tone, underscores the intelligence gaps and wariness needed in evaluating adversary claims, while providing context and insight into broader geopolitical currents.

The episode is a must-listen for those looking to understand the latest international crises through the measured lens of national security and intelligence analysis.