The President's Daily Brief – Afternoon Bulletin

February 6, 2026

Host: Mike Baker, Former CIA Operations Officer

Main Focus:

• Russia’s financial crisis as oil revenues collapse amid sanctions
• Targeted shooting of a top Russian general in Moscow, escalating fears of internal instability

Episode Overview

This episode of the PDB Afternoon Bulletin centers on two urgent developments in Russia: the Kremlin’s deepening financial troubles due to plunging oil and gas revenues, and the targeted shooting of Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, a senior Russian military intelligence officer, in Moscow. Host Mike Baker analyzes how these events signal mounting pressures on Vladimir Putin’s government, not only on the battlefield in Ukraine but also within Russia’s own borders.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Russia’s Oil Revenue Collapse and Budget Deficit

[00:12 – 08:20]

• Severe Revenue Drop:

  • New data shows Russia’s federal budget deficit is set to nearly triple in 2026, as oil and gas revenues plummet to the lowest point of the Putin era.
  • “According to new reporting, Russia’s federal budget deficit is now on track to almost triple this year... as oil and gas revenues continue to slide.” (Mike Baker, 00:46)

• Impact on State Spending:

  • Energy revenues are traditionally the backbone of Russia’s economy, funding pensions, regional subsidies, and defense spending.
  • The deficit is projected at 3.5–4.4% of GDP (up from an original target of 1.6%).

• Sanctions’ Role:

  • Aggressive US sanctions, especially since October 2025, have sharply curtailed Russia’s oil export markets, with even key buyers like India reducing purchases.
  • “Since then, Russia’s pool of foreign buyers has shrunk…including India, pulling back under sanctions pressure.” (Baker, 01:35)

• Budget Shortfalls:

  • Oil and gas revenues fell roughly 50% year-over-year, now amounting to only about 2% of GDP—the lowest since Putin took power.
  • Russia's total budget revenues expected to decline 6% to 37.9 trillion rubles, while expenditures may exceed plans by 4.1–8.4%.
  • Fiscal reserves could be depleted within a year, with only about 4.1 trillion rubles ($53 billion) left.
  • “At the current pace, Russia’s remaining fiscal reserves…could be largely depleted within a year.” (Baker, 04:40)

• Political Spin vs. Reality:

  • Kremlin officials claim the situation is “not catastrophic,” yet Western analysts warn the trend may become unsustainable if the war drags on.

• Quote:

  • “The longer this war continues under sanctions pressure, the harder it becomes for the Kremlin to fund both the conflict abroad and stability at home.” (Baker, 06:55)

2. High-Profile Shooting: Russian General Targeted in Moscow

[11:57 – 20:20]

• Incident Details:

  • Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, deputy head of Russia’s GRU (military intelligence), was shot multiple times in a Moscow residential building.
  • “A senior Russian military intelligence official was shot and seriously wounded inside a residential building in Moscow…” (Baker, 12:08)

• Suspected Ukrainian Involvement:

  • Russian authorities label the attack part of a “shadow campaign of targeted assassinations by Ukrainian intelligence.”
  • The gunman escaped; Alexeyev was hospitalized with wounds to his arm, leg, and chest.

• Alexeyev’s Background:

  • Decorated officer, “Hero of Russia” recipient.
  • Sanctioned by the US for alleged 2016 election interference; sanctioned by the EU for involvement in the 2018 Skripal poisoning in the UK.
  • “Alexeyev…has a rather infamous reputation in the West for allegedly orchestrating various plots prior to Putin’s invasion…” (Baker, 13:21)

• Security Concerns and Kremlin Response:

  • Russian journalists and bloggers question why such high-ranking officials lack better protection.
  • The Kremlin admits high-level commanders are now at risk even inside Moscow:
    • “High level commanders are at risk, whether on the front lines or in Russia’s capital.” (Baker, 15:42)
  • Foreign Minister Lavrov accused Ukraine of a “terrorist act” but provided no evidence:
    • “Yes, because the Kremlin is working so hard to establish peace.” (Baker’s sardonic aside, 16:20)

• Pattern of Assassinations:

  • Not the first attack—Mike references previous killings of senior Russian officers, often attributed to Ukrainian intelligence (e.g., bombings, targeted shootings).
  • “Ukraine's intelligence services have increasingly targeted Moscow's top brass as part of a lethal assassination program capable of reaching deep inside Russian territory…” (Baker, 17:10)

• Uncertainty and Escalation:

  • It remains unconfirmed whether Ukraine is responsible for this shooting, but the timing—right after US-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi—adds intrigue.
  • “But I want to stress again that it’s unclear at this time whether Ukraine is behind this latest attack.” (Baker, 19:14)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Russia’s budget crisis:
  • “That’s not good financial planning.” (Baker, 01:55)
• On sanctions bite:
  • “Russian crude is still moving, but increasingly at steep discounts and higher transport costs...” (Baker, 03:55)
• On Kremlin’s claim:
  • “Despite the dismal numbers, Kremlin sources are putting on a happy face…” (Baker, 04:20)
• On targeted assassinations:
  • “How did an attacker get close enough to hit a figure of this stature in a residential building in Moscow?” (Baker, 13:57)
• On the lasting impact:
  • “No one is safe.” (Baker, 17:50)

Critical Timestamps

• 00:12–08:20: In-depth breakdown of Russia’s financial distress and oil revenue collapse
• 11:57–20:20: Discussion of the shooting of Lieutenant General Alexeyev and the spate of targeted attacks
• 13:21: Alexeyev’s background and alleged Western-targeted operations
• 15:42: Kremlin’s acknowledgment of risks to high-level commanders
• 17:10: Overview of recent assassination campaign against Russian officials
• 19:14: Final emphasis on the unknowns surrounding responsibility for the latest attack

Tone and Takeaways

Mike Baker maintains a brisk, authoritative, and occasionally sardonic tone, providing both hard analysis and pointed commentary. He underscores the growing fragility within Russia, linking the deepening fiscal emergency to the regime’s capacity for war and domestic stability, while sharply noting the risks now facing even Russia’s highest military leaders in their own capital.

For further questions or comments, contact: pdb@thefirsttv.com

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Episode date: February 6, 2026