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PDB Afternoon Bulletin | February 6th, 2026: Putin’s Oil Revenue Collapses & Top Russian General Shot In Moscow
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It's Friday the 6th of February. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, it appears that the Kremlin is starting to feel real financial strain. New numbers show Russia's budget deficit widening sharply as oil and gas revenues plunged to their lowest levels of the Putin era. We'll look at what that might mean for Putin's war effort later in the show. A top Russian military intelligence officer was shot and seriously wounded in Moscow on Friday, marking the latest attack on Russia's top brass in the Russian capital. I'll have the details, but first, today's afternoon spotlight. We're continuing to monitor the Russian economy, and today we're seeing some of the clearest signals yet that the long term financial erosion that we've been talking about for months now is showing up directly in the numbers that matter most to the Kremlin. According to new reporting, Russia's federal budget deficit is now on track to almost triple this year, widening far beyond what the government initially planned as oil and gas revenues continue to slide. That's a significant shift for a system that has long relied on energy income as the backbone of its gdp, funding everything from pensions and regional subsidies to defense spending. And, of course, Putin's war machine. As regular listeners know, oil and gas revenues have historically been the single largest source of income for the Russian state. But President Trump issued aggressive sanctions on Russian oil exports back in October. Since then, Russia's pool of foreign buyers has shrunk with countries Moscow once relied on, including India, pulling back under sanctions pressure. According to a report from Reuters, internal budget estimates now show Moscow facing a much larger gap between what it's taking in and what it's committing to spend. That's not good financial planning. Specifically, the projected deficit is now nearly three times higher than the level originally forecast by the government, rising to roughly 3.5 to 4.4% of gross domestic product, up from a target of about 1.6%. That shortfall is emerging even as the Kremlin maintains elevated wartime spending levels. Separate reporting underscores just how acute the pressure has become. According to recent data from Russia's own Finance Ministry, oil and gas revenues are down by roughly 50% year over year, and at current rates, now amount to just about 2% of Russia's GDP. That's the lowest level seen during Vladimir Putin's presidency. That decline isn't limited to export duties alone. It also includes mineral extraction taxes and pipeline fees. Some of the most politically important and reliable sources of state income. For the Kremlin, even continued exports to China have not been enough to offset the damage. Russian crude is still moving, but but increasingly at steep discounts and higher transport costs, with sanctions related inefficiencies further eating into profits. At the same time, exports to other major buyers, including India, have shown signs of decline, further narrowing Moscow's revenue base. For example, a source told Reuters that Russian officials expect Indian purchases of Russian oil to decline an additional 30% this year following pressure from the Trump administration. Total budget revenues are now expected to fall by about 6% to roughly 37.9 trillion rubles, marking a significant contraction for an economy already plagued by high interest rates and labor shortages. At the same time, overall expenditures may exceed planned levels by anywhere from 4.1 to 8.4%. That's according to the same internal estimates. However, despite the dismal numbers, Kremlin sources are putting on a happy face, claiming to Reuters that the situation is not catastrophic and remains manageable. But analysts that spoke to Reuters warned that at the current pace, Russia's remaining fiscal reserves, estimated at about 4.1 trillion rubles, that's about US$53 billion, could be largely depleted within a year. So while Moscow may not be facing immediate economic collapse, the trajectory seems clear, almost inevitable. The longer this war continues under sanctions pressure, the harder it becomes for the Kremlin to fund both the conflict abroad and stability at home. Alright, coming up next, a shooting in Moscow has left a top Russian intelligence figure seriously wounded, marking the latest attack on Russia's top brass in Moscow. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, let me ask you a question. When was the last time that you woke up and actually feeling rested? I mean truly rested? Or when was the last time you got through a day without feeling totally stressed out? Yeah, over 50% of adults say they feel better if they got more sleep. Well, that makes sense. 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Look, sitting on that debt, I mean not doing anything about it, well, that just pads the bank's profits. So don't wait another month. Get your free personalized assessment and find out the best options for you@pdsdebt.com PDB that's pdsdebt.com welcome back to the afternoon bulletin. Sticking with Russia and the war in Ukraine, Moscow is waking up to another stark reminder that this conflict it started isn't simply contained to the front lines. According to multiple reports, a senior Russian military intelligence official was shot and seriously wounded inside a residential building in Moscow on Friday, an attack that Russian officials are already treating as part of a shadow campaign of targeted assassinations by Ukrainian intelligence. Russian investigators said an unidentified gunman fired several shots at Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, the deputy head of the gru. That's Russia's military intelligence agency. Before fleeing the scene, Reuters reports that Alexei was rushed to the hospital in serious condition, suffering wounds to his arm, leg and chest. Alexiev is a decorated officer, having previously received the Hero of Russia award from Putin himself. And his position as deputy head of the GRU places him squarely in the machinery driving Russia's war in Ukraine. He also has A rather infamous reputation in the west for allegedly orchestrating various plots prior to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Alekseyev was sanctioned by the US over cyber interference tied to the 2016 US presidential election, and the European Union sanctioned him over the 2018 poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England. So how did an attacker get close enough to hit a figure of this stature in a residential building in Moscow? Details remain murky, but initial reporting suggests that the attacker may have been lying in wait for Alexeyev as he left for work. Pro Kremlin journalists and war bloggers are already openly asking why senior figures like this aren't better protected, especially given that this is far from the first such incident. The Kremlin's reaction underscored both the gravity and the sensitivity of what happened. Putin has reportedly been briefed, and Russia's intelligence services are now investigating. The Kremlin said it hoped Alexeyev would survive and recover, while a spokesman also acknowledged the broader wartime reality. High level commanders are at risk, whether on the front lines or in Russia's capital. As for who's behind the attack, well, Russia's pointing the finger at Ukraine. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Kyiv of engaging in a, quote, terrorist act, framing it as an attempt to sabotage peace talks. Yes, because the Kremlin is working so hard to establish peace. Though, of course, Lavrov offered no evidence. Officials in Ukraine, meanwhile, have not commented. But Ukraine's intelligence services increasingly targeted Moscow's top brass as part of a lethal assassination program capable of reaching deep inside Russian territory, sending a clear message to the Kremlin that no one is safe. Last April, for example, Ukrainian intelligence took out the deputy chief of the Russian General Staff's Main Operational Directorate with a car bomb just 20 miles outside Moscow. Operatives had been tracking his movements closely, demonstrating a level of sophistication on the part of Kyiv's intelligence services that left Russian officials stunned. After the assassination, Ukrainian officials said they would continue to target all individuals involved in war crimes against Ukraine. That attack came after the December 2024 assassination of a general leading Russia's Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Forces. He was killed when a bomb concealed in a scooter detonated outside his Moscow apartment building. And that assassination came just five days after a leading Russian missile scientist was shot dead in a forest outside Moscow in an attack linked to Ukraine's military intelligence service. But I want to stress again that it's unclear at this time whether Ukraine is behind this latest attack in Moscow. The timing, however, is notable. It comes after the latest round of US brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi concluded on Thursday. Talks that included Alexeyev's boss, the head of Russia's GRU. And that, my friends, is the BDB afternoon bulletin for Friday 6th February. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the firsttv.com and to listen to the show ad free. Well just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting PDB premium.com and as you've probably seen on billboards all around town, every Friday we launch a brand new episode of our PDB Situation Report, hitting the airwaves tonight of course at 10pm on the first TV. You can also catch it on our YouTube channel. That's President's Daily Brief as well as podcast platforms everywhere. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back over the weekend with a PDB Situation Report. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.