The President's Daily Brief – Afternoon Bulletin

Episode: January 12, 2026
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Main Theme:
A high-level overview of ongoing state violence against protesters in Iran, the international response, especially from the US, and developments in Gaza where Hamas suggests it may step down from leadership—both unfolding amidst complex regional and geopolitical tensions.

Episode Overview

Mike Baker delivers a concise, intelligence-informed update on two unfolding international crises:

• Iran’s Violent Crackdown: The Iranian government escalates its violent suppression of mass protests, instituting a nationwide internet blackout and causing mounting casualties, likely in the hundreds or thousands.
• Hamas and Gaza Governance: Hamas signals willingness to step aside under a US-brokered plan, but major questions remain about implementation, oversight, and crucially, disarmament.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Iran: State Violence and International Implications

Summary

• The Iranian regime is reportedly carrying out mass, coordinated violence against protesters. Multiple eyewitness and NGO reports speak of hundreds, possibly thousands, killed.
• To obscure the crackdown, Iran has instituted a “nationwide internet blackout,” making verification and assessment difficult.
• The violence includes sniper attacks, headshots, drone surveillance, and overwhelmed hospitals.
• President Trump set a “red line” against Iranian state violence, warning the US would not “stand by” if mass killings occurred; recent events suggest that line is crossed.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On the Crackdown:
  “The picture coming out of Iran is no longer just one of political unrest and street protests. It now reflects deliberate, organized violence carried out by the state against its own citizens, much of it obscured by a nationwide Internet blackout.”
  — Mike Baker [02:13]

• On State Intent:
  “Eyewitnesses describe protesters being shot in the head. They report the use of snipers and surveillance drones. It doesn’t appear to be a government just struggling to restore order. It appears to be a regime attempting to crush dissent through fear.”
  — Mike Baker [03:29]

• On Internet Blackout:
  “Iran’s leadership understands that images and videos and live reporting are powerful weapons in the modern world. Cutting off access is not about stability; it’s about concealment.”
  — Mike Baker [05:26]

• On US Red Line:
  “President Trump publicly set a red line. He warned that the US would not stand by if the Iranian regime carried out mass violence against its own citizens...it does appear that the red line has been crossed.”
  — Mike Baker [04:11]

• On Negotiations:
  “Iran isn’t at war with the US, it’s at war with its own people. Short of a surrender or an orderly exit from power, there doesn’t seem to be any credible negotiated diplomatic off ramp.”
  — Mike Baker [05:08]

Insights

• Scale and Coordination: Reports (Center for Human Rights in Iran, Washington Post) indicate methodical, large-scale, state-directed violence.
• Information War: The internet blackout is a tool of concealment; reliable facts are hard to ascertain, but available evidence paints a dire picture.
• Political Stakes: Trump’s previous warnings now loom large; his administration is weighing responses, including possible military contingency planning.

2. Gaza: Hamas Signals Exit, Plan Uncertain

Summary

• Hamas claims readiness to dissolve its governing authority under a US-brokered plan—but key issues like timeline, naming of technocratic leaders, and the requirement to disarm remain unresolved.
• Gaza’s governance is envisaged to transfer to an unaffiliated “technocratic committee,” overseen by an international “Board of Peace.”
• Progress is slow; the first phase (ceasefire, prisoner exchanges, humanitarian aid) is ongoing, but major next steps hinge on disarmament and agreed transfer of authority.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On Hamas’s Pledge:
  “Hamas now claims that it will dissolve its governing authority in Gaza once a technocratic committee assumes control as required under the US brokered peace plan. But that pledge is missing a timeline...and it’s missing the key component that Hamas disarm.”
  — Mike Baker [08:21]

• On Ceasefire Dynamics:
  “The framework for Gaza’s post-war governance exists largely on paper. The second phase of the ceasefire is unworkable until Hamas disarms. And the current first phase ceasefire is a fragile agreement barely holding together.”
  — Mike Baker [11:33]

• On International Oversight:
  “President Trump has said the Board of Peace will play a central role in overseeing Gaza’s transition, including additional Israeli troop withdrawals. But those mechanisms are still being assembled.”
  — Mike Baker [11:09]

• On Appointments:
  “Prime Minister Netanyahu confirms that Nikolai Mladenov has been selected as the Board’s Director General. Mladenov...was known for maintaining working relations with Israeli and Palestinian actors during periods of heightened tensions.”
  — Mike Baker [11:19]

Insights

• Details Missing: No timeline or names for a new “technocratic” government. Disarmament remains the biggest barrier.
• Fragility: The current ceasefire—no large-scale fighting, some hostage exchanges—is holding but is not robust.
• International Role: The “Board of Peace,” still in formation, would supervise security, disarmament, and reconstruction. Mladenov’s appointment is one tangible step.
• Skepticism about Hamas: Baker notes Hamas’s history of using negotiation to buy time, doubting their sincerity:
  “If it walks like a terrorist duck and talks like a terrorist duck, it may well be a terrorist canard.” — Mike Baker [01:02]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:12] – Episode open, Iran crackdown introduction
• [01:02] – Reflection on Hamas’s trustworthiness and history
• [02:13] – Iran violence details, NGO reports, and blackout ramifications
• [04:11] – Trump’s red line, US response deliberations
• [05:08] – Iran’s negotiation overtures, realism about diplomatic prospects
• [08:21] – Gaza update, Hamas’s offer and missing details
• [11:09] – International “Board of Peace,” Mladenov’s appointment
• [11:33] – State of post-war Gaza plan and ceasefire fragility

Notable Quotes

• “A massacre is currently unfolding across Iran.” — Mike Baker, citing Center for Human Rights in Iran [02:35]
• “The number of dead, they say, is rising by the hour.” — Mike Baker [03:03]
• “Iran’s regime is essentially buying time by suggesting negotiations, time to crush the protests while publicly appearing to be looking for a peaceful resolution.” — Mike Baker [05:20]
• “Coming up next: Hamas signals that it may step aside in Gaza. But with no timeline and no realistic alternatives yet, well, there are obviously major questions about whether ceasefire’s phase two can move forward.” — Mike Baker [06:51]

Summary Table

| Segment | Topic | Key Takeaway | |-----------------------------|---------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | [00:12] – [07:38] | Iran crackdown | Mass violence, information blackout, US/Trump response under debate | | [08:15] – [12:20] | Gaza/Hamas | Hamas’s wavering commitment, weak ceasefire, “Board of Peace” oversight plan | | Throughout | Regional/US implications | Deep uncertainty, fragile agreements, skepticism toward both Iranian and Hamas leadership |

Overall Takeaways

• Iran is in the throes of a violent, well-coordinated state crackdown shielded by an internet blackout. The US faces a moment of decision due to a previously declared “red line.”
• In Gaza, the ceasefire and peace plan progress is almost entirely theoretical, with critical issues unresolved and skepticism about Hamas’s willingness to genuinely cede power or disarm.
• International mediation is ongoing but the risks of stalling, backsliding, or open conflict remain high.

Host’s Final Words:
“That, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Monday 12th January. Now if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me...”
— Mike Baker [11:45]

This summary was created to provide a detailed, organized account of the episode’s main discussions and key moments, for those interested in current foreign policy, global security updates, and US international positioning.