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It's Monday, the 12th of January. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, new reporting from Iran indicates coordinated state violence against protesters, with the regime shutting down the Internet nationwide to conceal the scale of their crackdown. Later in the show, Hamas claims it's ready to dissolve its governing authority in Gaza under a US Brokered plan. But as you might imagine, key details on governance, enforcement and timing remain unresolved. Now, if you'll recall, Hamas also claimed for years leading up to their 7th of October, 2023 attacks against Israel that they were just interested in peace and bettering the lives of Gaza civilians. That, of course, turned out to be a well planned disinformation campaign designed to lull the Israeli government into complacency. I'm not saying that you can't trust the Iranian backed terror group, but if it walks like a terrorist duck and talks like a terrorist duck, it may well be a terrorist canard. But first, today's BDB Spotlight. Today, the picture coming out of Iran is no longer just one of political unrest and street protests. It now reflects deliberate organized violence carried out by the state against its own citizens, much of it obscured by a nationwide Internet blackout, according to stark warnings issued by the center for Human Rights in Iran. It's an independent New York based nonprofit that documents human rights abuses in the country. A massacre is currently unfolding across Iran. The group says it's received multiple eyewitness accounts and what it describes as credible reports indicating that hundreds of protesters have been killed during the ongoing crackdown. Because the regime has effectively severed Iran from the outside world, confirming exact numbers is, well, currently next to impossible. The descriptions coming in of the regime's methods are indicative of large scale violence. Witnesses report hospitals overwhelmed with casualties, blood supplies critically low, and bodies piling up as security forces continue to fire on demonstrators. The number of dead, they say, is rising by the hour. And this is not random violence. Eyewitnesses describe protesters being shot in the head. They report the use of snipers and surveillance drones. It doesn't appear to be a government just struggling to restore order. It appears to be a regime attempting to crush dissent through fear. Multiple outlets, including the Washington Post, report that the death toll has climbed sharply over the past several days. But even those figures come with an asterisk. The blackout makes independent verification nearly impossible. And human rights groups warn that the true number of casualties is almost certainly higher than what has been publicly acknowledged. Some estimates have the number at approximately 500 dead, while others are putting the casualties in the thousands. What makes this moment especially significant is that President Trump publicly set a red line. He warned that the US Would not stand by if the Iranian regime carried out mass violence against its own citizens. Well, that warning was not subtle. And over the last few days, it does appear that the red line has been crossed. As we reported earlier today, President Trump is now weighing his options, including potential military strikes. Officials describe it as contingency planning. That's the language that Washington always uses. Whether Trump chooses to act is ultimately his decision. But the conditions he warned about, well, are now in place. During a press gaggle yesterday, the president told reporters that Iran had reached out about negotiations. Oh, look at that. That claim was echoed today by Iran's foreign minister, who said the country was, quote, ready for negotiations and that communication channels between Tehran and Washington remain open. Now, for what it's worth, the Iranian regime is essentially buying time by suggesting negotiations, time to crush the protests. While publicly appearing to be looking for a peaceful resolution. It's difficult to understand what exactly there is to negotiate. While security forces of the Iranian regime gun down civilians in the streets and shut off the Internet to hide the evidence. Iran isn't at war with the US it's at war with its own people. Short of a surrender or an orderly exit from power, there doesn't seem to be any credible negotiated diplomatic off ramp. Now, the Internet blackout itself is telling. Iran's leadership understands that images and videos and live reporting are powerful weapons in the modern world. Cutting off access is not about stability. It's about concealment. Again, as with the offer of negotiations, it's about buying time to finish the crackdown before the full scope of the violence becomes undeniable. And yet, despite the violence, witnesses say the protests are not slowing. And in some areas, they are reportedly growing. That more than anything speaks to the depth of public rage and to the regime's desperation. Coming up next, Hamas signals that it may step aside in Gaza. But with no timeline and no realistic alternatives yet, well, there are obviously major questions about whether ceasefires, phase two, can move forward. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, let me take a moment of your time to talk about security, specifically your. Your online security, and to tell you about Deleteme. 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Welcome back to the afternoon bulletin Months into the fragile ceasefire, Hamas now claims that it will dissolve its governing authority in Gaza once a technocratic committee assumes control as required under the US brokered peace plan. But that pledge is missing a timeline when the handoff would actually happen, and it's missing the key component that Hamas disarm. For now, the details remain thin. Hamas has not announced the names of a single technocrat who could run Gaza under this plan, and neither has the Palestinian Authority. These figures are supposedly to be politically unaffiliated, but even that remains theoretical. More importantly, it's still unclear whether Israel and the US would even sign off on the committee at all. It's a requirement that has to be met before any real transfer of authority can take place. That uncertainty feeds directly into the larger structure meant to oversee all of this. That, of course, would be what's known as the Board of Peace. Under the plan advanced by President Trump, this new international body is supposed to supervise the technocratic leadership, enforce the ceasefire, oversee Hamas's disarmament, coordinate the deployment of an international security force and manage Gaza's reconstruction. The ceasefire took effect on 10 October, halting for the most part large scale fighting and setting off a series of hostage for prisoner exchanges as well as a surge of aid into the enclave. Now, the deal is still in its first phase, and that matters because efforts are ongoing to recover the remains of the final Israeli hostage believed to be held in the Gaza Strip. Until that step is completed, Hamas dissolves its existing government and disarms. Moving forward into the more consequential second phase of the agreement remains unlikely and uncertain. Against that backdrop, Egyptian mediators are trying to push things along. An Egyptian official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, said Hamas is preparing to send a delegation to talks with Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish officials aimed at advancing the agreement into its second phase. Publicly, Hamas has also tried to project urgency. In comments posted on Telegram, a spokesman from the Iran backed terror group called for speeding up the formation of the technocratic committee. How about they speed up the effort to disarm? But behind the scenes, some of these efforts appear more procedural and theatrical than meaningful. The Egyptian official said Hamas plans to meet with other Palestinian factions this week to finalize the committee structure and that the delegation will be led by Hamas's top negotiator, Khalil Al Hayyya. Even so, none of that resolves the more basic question about who would ultimately be approved to govern or when. Back in Washington, Trump administration officials are candid about the pace. So far, progress on the most sensitive developments of the plan, including Hamas's disarmament, the deployment of an international security force and large scale reconstruction, have been limited. President Trump has said the Board of Peace will play a central role in overseeing Gaza's transition, including additional Israeli troop withdrawals. But those mechanisms are still being assembled. One tangible step has come from Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu confirms that Nikolai Moladinov has been selected as the Board's Director General. Now Mladinov, former Bulgarian Defense and Foreign Minister, previously served as the UN's Middle east peace envoy from 2015 to 2020 and was known for maintaining working relations with Israeli and Palestinian actors during periods of heightened tensions. So for those of you trying to understand the current state of affairs here, well, essentially the framework for Gaza's post war governance exists largely on paper. The second phase of the ceasefire is unworkable until Hamas disarms. And the current first phase ceasefire is a fragile agreement barely holding together. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Monday 12th January. Now if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and of course to listen to the show ad free. That is certainly something you can do. All you have to do is become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Foreign Baker here. Well, it is 2026. I think you probably knew that. So did you make any New Year's resolutions? I made a few, including to get better sleep every night. Look, sleep is basically the foundation for the rest of your day. With a good night's sleep, well, you've got more energy, you handle stress better, you think more clearly. 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Episode: January 12, 2026
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Main Theme:
A high-level overview of ongoing state violence against protesters in Iran, the international response, especially from the US, and developments in Gaza where Hamas suggests it may step down from leadership—both unfolding amidst complex regional and geopolitical tensions.
Mike Baker delivers a concise, intelligence-informed update on two unfolding international crises:
On the Crackdown:
“The picture coming out of Iran is no longer just one of political unrest and street protests. It now reflects deliberate, organized violence carried out by the state against its own citizens, much of it obscured by a nationwide Internet blackout.”
— Mike Baker [02:13]
On State Intent:
“Eyewitnesses describe protesters being shot in the head. They report the use of snipers and surveillance drones. It doesn’t appear to be a government just struggling to restore order. It appears to be a regime attempting to crush dissent through fear.”
— Mike Baker [03:29]
On Internet Blackout:
“Iran’s leadership understands that images and videos and live reporting are powerful weapons in the modern world. Cutting off access is not about stability; it’s about concealment.”
— Mike Baker [05:26]
On US Red Line:
“President Trump publicly set a red line. He warned that the US would not stand by if the Iranian regime carried out mass violence against its own citizens...it does appear that the red line has been crossed.”
— Mike Baker [04:11]
On Negotiations:
“Iran isn’t at war with the US, it’s at war with its own people. Short of a surrender or an orderly exit from power, there doesn’t seem to be any credible negotiated diplomatic off ramp.”
— Mike Baker [05:08]
On Hamas’s Pledge:
“Hamas now claims that it will dissolve its governing authority in Gaza once a technocratic committee assumes control as required under the US brokered peace plan. But that pledge is missing a timeline...and it’s missing the key component that Hamas disarm.”
— Mike Baker [08:21]
On Ceasefire Dynamics:
“The framework for Gaza’s post-war governance exists largely on paper. The second phase of the ceasefire is unworkable until Hamas disarms. And the current first phase ceasefire is a fragile agreement barely holding together.”
— Mike Baker [11:33]
On International Oversight:
“President Trump has said the Board of Peace will play a central role in overseeing Gaza’s transition, including additional Israeli troop withdrawals. But those mechanisms are still being assembled.”
— Mike Baker [11:09]
On Appointments:
“Prime Minister Netanyahu confirms that Nikolai Mladenov has been selected as the Board’s Director General. Mladenov...was known for maintaining working relations with Israeli and Palestinian actors during periods of heightened tensions.”
— Mike Baker [11:19]
| Segment | Topic | Key Takeaway | |-----------------------------|---------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | [00:12] – [07:38] | Iran crackdown | Mass violence, information blackout, US/Trump response under debate | | [08:15] – [12:20] | Gaza/Hamas | Hamas’s wavering commitment, weak ceasefire, “Board of Peace” oversight plan | | Throughout | Regional/US implications | Deep uncertainty, fragile agreements, skepticism toward both Iranian and Hamas leadership |
Host’s Final Words:
“That, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Monday 12th January. Now if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me...”
— Mike Baker [11:45]
This summary was created to provide a detailed, organized account of the episode’s main discussions and key moments, for those interested in current foreign policy, global security updates, and US international positioning.