The President's Daily Brief – Afternoon Bulletin

Episode: PDB Afternoon Bulletin | January 13th, 2026: Trump Speaks Directly To Iran’s Protesters As Crackdown Grows
Host: Mike Baker
Date: January 13, 2026
Publisher: The First TV

Episode Overview

This episode centers on President Trump’s direct messaging to Iranian protesters amid an increasingly violent government crackdown and a communications blackout in Iran. The show covers the White House’s evolving policy responses, tough new sanctions, and the potential for further escalation. The second major story details Ukraine’s escalating campaign to target Russian oil infrastructure, with a new emphasis on off-shore strikes in the Caspian Sea, signaling a strategic broadening of the conflict’s operational geography.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. President Trump’s Message to Iranian Protesters

[00:12 – 05:55]

• Historic Context:

  • Iran's leadership faces mass protests, met with violence and a sweeping internet blackout lasting over 100 hours.
  • Official regime death toll: ~2,000 protesters since late December (likely a vast undercount).
  • Independent sources such as Iran International estimate closer to 12,000 dead, but verification is impossible due to information suppression.

• Trump’s Direct Appeal:

  • Trump issues a statement on Truth Social, urging Iranian protesters to persist and “take over your institutions."

  • He encourages documentation of regime violence:

    “Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price.” – Donald Trump (read by Mike Baker) [02:14]

  • Most notably, Trump promises:

    “Help is on its way.” – Donald Trump (read by Mike Baker) [02:27]

• Policy Ambiguity and White House Deliberations:

  • The nature of US “help” is unclear. Baker notes, “That’s the big question.”
  • National security team set to review options; airstrikes are among possibilities, but diplomacy is officially preferred.
  • Diplomatic tracks are suspended as Trump cancels all meetings with Iranian officials until violence stops:

    “…cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials ‘until the senseless killing of protesters stops,’ effectively freezing the diplomatic track that he had previously left open.” – Mike Baker [03:49]

• New Sanctions and Pressure on Allies:

  • Trump orders comprehensive secondary sanctions:

    “Any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the US.” – Donald Trump (read by Mike Baker) [04:15]

  • This targets Iran’s trading partners, compelling them to choose between access to US markets or continued trade with Iran.

• Historical Comparison & Stakes:

  • Baker observes previous US responses to Iranian protests were “tepid and non-existent,” making the current message of “help is on its way” unusually bold.
  • The risk: If “help” only amounts to more negotiations and sanctions, the likely outcome is another failed uprising and an emboldened regime.

  “The problem will be if the only help turns out to be diplomatic negotiations and memos, maybe some additional sanctions. Well then the Iranian opposition... will be looking at the same result as in the past.” – Mike Baker [05:35]

2. Ukraine Expands Asymmetric Warfare on Russian Oil Infrastructure

[09:38 – 13:30]

• Shift to the Caspian Sea:

  • Ukrainian forces conduct strikes against Russian oil platforms, operated by Lukoil, in the Caspian Sea—a region previously thought immune from the conflict.

  “The Caspian Sea isn’t a place that we usually associate with the war in Ukraine. … But that assumption is starting to collapse.” – Mike Baker [09:38]

• Strategic Implications:

  • These platforms supply Russia’s energy needs and military logistics. The strikes mark a significant expansion in Ukraine’s reach.
  • The attacks disrupt oil production, storage, transport, and thus Russia’s war economy.

• Asymmetric Tactics:

  • Ukraine leverages drones, special forces, and long-range strikes to overcome Russian military superiority in conventional warfare.
  • Baker highlights the psychological and economic impact:

    “Every strike like this forces Moscow to redraw its defense map. Assets once considered safe now require protection.” – Mike Baker [12:08]

• Risks and Restraint:

  • Operations are described as “calibrated, limited, precise and focused on Russian-controlled assets,” ensuring minimal diplomatic fallout with other Caspian stakeholders.
  • The takeaway: Ukraine's strategy is not new but more sophisticated, showing Kyiv’s growing capability to strike deep and adaptively.

  “If Russian energy infrastructure could be targeted there, then nowhere tied to Moscow’s war economy can be assumed off limits.” – Mike Baker [13:18]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On regime violence:

  “When the regime says the number is 2,000, well, it’s highly likely that the number is higher.” – Mike Baker [01:29]

• Trump’s challenge to protestors:

  “Iranian patriots, keep protesting. Take over your institutions.” – Donald Trump (read by Mike Baker) [02:07]

• On US leveraging secondary sanctions:

  “…any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the US.” – Donald Trump (read by Mike Baker) [04:15]

• Warning to the regime:

  “When President Trump issues public warnings like this, he has a recent track record of backing them up, often in ways that move quickly and catch adversaries off guard.” – Mike Baker [05:13]

• On Ukraine’s psychological warfare:

  “Assets once considered safe now require protection. Resources get diverted, insurance costs rise, production schedules get disrupted.” – Mike Baker [12:08]

Important Segment Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | Summary | |---------------|---------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------| | 00:12 – 05:55 | Iran Protests & US Response | Trump’s message, death toll, sanctions, policy debate| | 09:38 – 13:30 | Ukraine Strikes Russian Oil in Caspian| Strategic targeting, geography, broader implications |

Tone & Language

Mike Baker’s delivery remains analytical and direct, stressing the gravity of developments in Iran and Ukraine. He emphasizes uncertainty (“that’s the big question”), strategic nuance, and potential consequences, both positive and negative, for US policy moves.

For listeners seeking an informed briefing on global flashpoints—from the violent suppression of protest in Iran to Ukraine’s evolving campaign against Russia—this episode delivers sharp, up-to-date context with a frank ‘what’s next?’ orientation.