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It's Wednesday, the 14th of January. Welcome to the PDP Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, tensions are rising as Iran continues its violent crackdown on protesters, with some estimates claiming over 12,000 demonstrators killed by the regime since the start of the protests. Now the US Government is issuing warnings to US Personnel and civilians amid mounting concerns that a military confrontation may be approaching. We'll add the details later in the show. The US Launches a new wave of airstrikes in Somalia targeting ISIS and Al Shabaab positions as Washington steps up counter terror operations alongside Somali forces. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. It looks like Iran is shutting the door to diplomacy. Not that it was ever really that open. As the US Government begins to move out personnel in several key areas and military bases, all in anticipation of a potential strike against the regime, multiple signals over the past 24 hours point in the same direction. The diplomatic track is collapsing. Civilians are being warned to get out, and and U.S. forces in the region are adjusting their posture for what could come next. All right, let's start with diplomacy or the lack of it. Tehran has now announced that it has suspended all direct contact with Washington. Iranian officials say communication between their foreign minister and the US Special envoy has effectively gone dark, blaming what they describe as escalating American threats and pressure. Aha. The regime is blaming American pressure. You know, or they could blame their own personnel for killing thousands of protesters and arresting over 10,000 others. Yeah, maybe. Maybe that could be the problem now. Just yesterday, President Trump announced that the White House had broken off negotiations with the regime. That matters because even limited back channel communication has historically been the pressure valve that keeps crises like this from spinning out of control. When those channels close, military planning and kinetic action tends to fill the vacuum. At the same time, we're seeing movement on the ground in the region. Reuters reports that some U.S. personnel have been advised to leave Al Udaid Air Base in Qatar. That's the largest American military installation in the Middle East. Officials are careful to describe this as a posture adjustment. Oh, sounds like a chiropractor's effort, not a full scale evaluation. But it's still notable because it echoes similar pre escalation activity seen before past confrontations. Al udaid hosts roughly 10,000 U.S. troops and plays a central role in American air operations across the region. Advising personnel to depart, even partially, is a precautionary step that the Pentagon typically takes when anticipating retaliatory actions from hostile states or elements And Iran has taken notice. Senior Iranian officials are warning that if the US Strikes Iran, American bases across the region would be considered legitimate targets. Those warnings have reportedly been delivered directly to neighboring countries that host U.S. forces. That would put U.S. troops stationed in places like Iraq and Syria at immediate risk. Along with major air and naval hubs in the Gulf, including bases in Qatar and Kuwait and the uae. Iran has a long track record, of course, of using missiles and drones and proxy forces to strike at U.S. positions, meaning any escalation would likely unfold across multiple fronts, not just between Washington and Tehran. And now the warnings are extending beyond troops to civilians as well. The US Virtual Embassy for Iran has issued an urgent advisory telling US Citizens still inside that country to leave immediately. The warning makes clear that the US Government has no ability to provide consular assistance inside Iran and that US Citizens should not expect evacuation support if conditions worsen. The advisory also notes growing flight disruptions, communications blackouts, and the risk of arbitrary detention, especially for dual nationals. Meanwhile, the internal situation inside Iran continues to deteriorate. The death toll among protesters continues to rise. The Human Rights Activists News Agency, an Iran focused rights group that has tracked casualties and past crackdowns, says it's verified roughly 2550 deaths so far, including more than 2,400 protesters. Other estimates are far higher, with CBS reporting numbers in the 12,000 range. As always, these figures are extremely difficult to confirm. Iran has imposed widespread Internet shutdowns, restricted access for journalists, and tightly controlled information coming out of the country. Different organizations offer different estimates, and the true number probably won't be known for quite some time. Also, in an effort to defeat the regime's Internet shutdown and communications blackout, Elon Musk has provided Starlink support to allow some communication capability for the protesters. What is clear is the scale and intensity of the violence. Security forces have used live fire mass arrests and are now using fast tracked prosecutions to crush the protests. The regime has also moved toward executions of detainees. This all comes a day after President Trump publicly urged protesters to remain in the streets, signaling that Washington views this moment as a potential turning point for the regime. Diplomatic channels appear closed. Military forces are repositioning. Civilians are being told to get out while they can. And both sides are signaling publicly and privately that they're preparing for a confrontation. All right, coming up next, the US Expands its air campaign in Somalia, striking ISIS and Al Shabaab militants in coordination with the Somali government. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, it is 2026. I suspect you knew that. So did you make any New Year's resolutions, right? That's a thing. I made a few, actually, including. And here's a good one, to get better sleep every night, because sleep is basically the foundation for the rest of your day. Huh? With a good night's sleep, you know what happens. You have more energy, you handle stress better, you think more clearly. It's a pretty good resolution. And to help make it a reality, well, I turned to CBD products from CB Distillery. They're sleep gummies. The combination of CBD and melatonin, and they really do the trick. Seriously, you'll wake up refreshed and ready to take on whatever the day brings. 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The US stepped up airstrikes in Somalia this month targeting the terror group Al Shabaab and the local Islamic State affiliate as Washington continues a sustained campaign to keep jihadist threats from spilling beyond Africa. According to US Africa Command, that's known as africom, American forces working alongside Somalia's federal government carried out airstrikes against Al Shabaab terrorists on Monday. AFRICOM framed the operation as part of an ongoing effort to degrade the terror group's ability to threaten US forces, Americans overseas, and ultimately the US homeland. But this wasn't limited to a single strike. Additional airstrikes targeting ISIS Somalia were reported Sunday and late last week in the country's north, including the Golas Mountains of Puntland, which is southeast of the port city of Bosaso. Around the same time, US aircraft also hit Al Shabaab positions roughly 95 miles northwest of the capital Mogadishu. The US campaign shows pressure being applied across multiple regions, not just against a single pocket of terrorists. And that context matters when you look at the groups being targeted. Al Shabaab, an affiliate of Al Qaeda, has been fighting Somalia's central government since 2007 and controls vast amounts of territory across the country's south central regions. By comparison, ISIS Somalia is smaller but increasingly active. It's more concentrated in the mountainous northeast, where it competes with Al Shabaab for influence and resources and recruits. Africa has been consistent in its press releases on how these operations are being carried out. The command says these strikes were conducted in coordination with Somali authorities and are part of a broader counterterrorism campaign aimed at disrupting jihadist networks operating inside the country. As is often the case, AFRICOM did not release casualty figures, and specific details about the units and assets involved were withheld to preserve ongoing operational security. But what really stands out here is the pace of the operations. This latest series of strikes is part of a sustained escalation of US air activity over Somalia. Africom data shows that between 1 February, when the Trump administration carried out its first Somalia strike of 2025, and 10 June, US forces conducted nearly 40 airstrikes against Al Shabaab and Islamic State targets. Independent monitoring organizations have also noticed the trend. Analysis by the Combating Terrorism center points to a clear rise in US Strikes since Trump returned to office, reinforcing africom's depiction of an accelerating campaign rather than winding it down that escalation lines up with how US Military leaders are thinking about the risk. AFRICOM commander General Michael Langley warned lawmakers last year that jihadist groups operating in Africa pose a growing danger beyond the continent. Testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee back in April, Langley made clear that unchecked expansion by ISIS and al Qaeda affiliates could translate into direct threats to the US if the groups are given time to regroup and strategize. Langley said that AFRICOM sustained operations and communication with intelligence and interagency partners works to minimize that risk to US national security. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon bulletin for Wednesday, the 14th of January. Now if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the firsttv.com and to listen to the show ad free. It's very easy to do. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
Episode: January 14, 2026
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Theme: Looming US-Iran Confrontation, Escalating Evacuations, and US Airstrikes on Somali Terror Targets
On this episode, host Mike Baker provides a high-level crisis briefing focusing on two rapidly developing security flashpoints:
Baker distills the implications for American personnel, military posturing, and the risk calculus involved in both theaters.
[00:15–11:54]
Notable Quote:
"The regime is blaming American pressure. You know, or they could blame their own personnel for killing thousands of protesters and arresting over 10,000 others. Yeah, maybe. Maybe that could be the problem now."
— Mike Baker [02:41]
Notable Quote:
"That matters because even limited back channel communication has historically been the pressure valve that keeps crises like this from spinning out of control. When those channels close, military planning and kinetic action tends to fill the vacuum."
— Mike Baker [03:25]
Notable Quote:
"Oh, sounds like a chiropractor's effort, not a full scale evacuation. But it’s still notable because it echoes similar pre-escalation activity seen before past confrontations."
— Mike Baker [04:34]
Memorable Moment:
[12:13–End]
Notable Quote:
"AFRICOM framed the operation as part of an ongoing effort to degrade the terror group's ability to threaten US forces, Americans overseas, and ultimately the US homeland."
— Mike Baker [13:57]
Notable Quote:
"AFRICOM sustained operations and communication with intelligence and interagency partners works to minimize that risk to US national security."
— General Langley (paraphrased by Mike Baker) [16:44]
"Diplomatic channels appear closed. Military forces are repositioning. Civilians are being told to get out while they can. And both sides are signaling publicly and privately that they're preparing for a confrontation."
— Mike Baker [11:15]
"This latest series of strikes is part of a sustained escalation of US air activity over Somalia... reinforcing AFRICOM’s depiction of an accelerating campaign rather than winding it down."
— Mike Baker [15:45]
Listeners receive a rapid, expert intelligence briefing that contextualizes fast-moving events in Iran (possible US strike, breakdown of last diplomatic contacts, evacuations, and humanitarian crisis) and in Somalia (widening US counterterror campaign against jihadists).
Baker’s analysis empowers Americans to understand both the short-term risks and larger strategic stakes, punctuated by frontline reporting, key quotes, and an unvarnished “insider” take on the news behind the news.