PDB Afternoon Bulletin | January 5th, 2026: Iran’s Supreme Leader Is Planning To Flee Tehran & Ukraine’s Power Shakeup

Summary

The President’s Daily Brief – Afternoon Bulletin | January 5, 2026

Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Podcast: The President’s Daily Brief (The First TV)
Episode Focus: Instability in Iran’s Regime amid Ongoing Protests; Major Power Reshuffling at the Top of Ukraine’s Government

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Episode Overview

Mike Baker offers concise, intelligence-driven reporting on two major global stories:

1. Signs of serious instability within Iran’s regime, with reports that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is planning an escape route as nationwide protests intensify.
2. A significant political shakeup in Ukraine, where President Zelensky has replaced his chief of staff with Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov, signaling both domestic and international repercussions as talk of peace and elections increase.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Iranian Regime Crisis: Supreme Leader’s Reported Escape Plan

[00:12 – 07:39]

• Heightened Tensions & Escape Strategy:

  • New intelligence points to Ayatollah Khamenei actively plotting an escape route from Iran, with Moscow identified as the potential safe haven should regime control collapse.
    • “Authoritarian regimes or despotic leaders don’t normally plan escape routes when they feel secure… Contingency planning of this kind is not routine, it’s a signal.” — Mike Baker [01:42]
    • The choice of Moscow is “no surprise,” with Russia serving as a sanctuary for embattled leaders (ex: Bashar al-Assad).

• Nationwide Protests Escalate:

  • Demonstrations against the regime have now persisted for nine consecutive days, spanning 220 locations in 26 of Iran’s 31 provinces—no longer a localized revolt but sustained, widespread unrest.
  • Security forces have responded with lethal force and mass arrests: at least 20 dead and more than 990 detained.

• Regime Response and Vulnerability:

  • Khamenei’s recent statement refers to protestors as “rioters” to be “put in their place”—an attempt to draw a red line and reassert authority.
  • “But so far, the people, the protesters, well, they haven’t stopped… That persistence is the most dangerous development for the regime.” — Mike Baker [03:51]
  • The regime is reliant on protests losing steam over time or being suppressed through exhaustion and repression. The ongoing momentum directly undermines this strategy.

• Implications of Escape Planning:

  • Such preparations indicate mounting anxiety at the regime’s highest levels and a break from their long-projected image of unshakable authority.
  • “If things continue on this trajectory, the Supreme Leader may soon discover that his place is no longer at the center of power in Tehran, but in an anonymous apartment somewhere in Moscow, living out the quiet exile of a ruler who finally ran out of options.” — Mike Baker [06:45]

Notable Quotes

• “Contingency planning of this kind is not routine, it’s a signal… suggesting a great deal of anxiety at the very top of the Iranian system.” — Mike Baker [01:42]
• “Authoritarian systems depend on exhaustion, on the belief that if they wait long enough or crack down hard enough, people will just go home. But when demonstrations continue day after day… that’s when you start thinking about possible exile plans.” — Mike Baker [05:16]

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2. Ukraine’s Power Shakeup: Budanov Joins Zelensky’s Inner Circle

[08:32 – 13:59]

• Major Leadership Overhaul:

  • Facing mounting domestic and international pressure on peacemaking and government leadership, President Zelensky undertakes a sweeping replacement at the top, naming Kyrylo Budanov, the military intelligence chief, as head of the presidential office—a role akin to the US White House Chief of Staff.
  • This follows the resignation of longtime chief of staff Andriy Yermak amid corruption allegations.

• Strategic Calculations and Subtext:

  • Not merely a personnel change, the appointment signals preparation for “what comes next,” as open discussion of Ukraine’s war endgame and questions of governance intensify:
    • “The war may not be over, but the end game is already being discussed. And that means the balance of power in Kyiv matters just as much as the balance of forces on the front lines.” — Mike Baker [09:37]
  • By bringing Budanov inside the system, Zelensky defuses a potential challenger—Budanov is seen as a likely rival in any future presidential election.

• Diplomacy and US Ties:

  • Budanov’s deep US connections are underscored: trained via a CIA-backed program and treated at Walter Reed after combat wounds, he “carries added weight” as the Trump administration steers peace talks.
  • Zelensky made the choice after recent deliberations with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, seeking an aide with “credibility in Washington and European capitals.”

• Anticipating War & Peace:

  • Budanov is expected to press for an increased focus on asymmetric tactics (sabotage, tech innovation), and serves as a rare backchannel with Russian counterparts.
  • The latest peace proposals require Ukrainian elections soon after any ceasefire; Zelensky insists that “peace must come first,” a stance Moscow resists.

Notable Quotes

• “Zelensky later underscored that logic, saying Ukraine needs a sharper focus on security issues and defense development and diplomacy. He posted on X… ‘Kyrylo has specialized experience in these areas and sufficient strength to deliver results.’” — Mike Baker (paraphrasing Zelensky) [10:42]
• “By reshaping his inner circle and by drawing Budanov into the heart of presidential power, [Zelensky] moves to shape Ukraine’s political future.” — Mike Baker [13:33]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iranian Regime Anxiety:
  “They don’t game out exile scenarios when they believe their grip on power is firm… It’s a signal.” — Mike Baker [01:42]

• On the Protesters’ Stamina:
  “That persistence is the most dangerous development for the regime.” — Mike Baker [03:51]

• On Zelensky’s Political Strategy:
  “Instead of leaving a powerful figure outside the system, Zelensky has brought him inside—a move that reduces the risk of internal competition as Ukraine edges closer to a political reckoning.” — Mike Baker [10:22]

• On Ukraine’s Evolving Government:
  “The balance of power in Kyiv matters just as much as the balance of forces on the front lines.” — Mike Baker [09:37]

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Important Segment Timestamps

• [00:12] – Episode begins, top headlines previewed: Iran unrest & Ukraine shakeup.
• [00:46] – In-depth coverage of Iran’s Supreme Leader’s potential escape to Moscow.
• [03:25] – Reports on protest intensity: 9 days, 220+ locations, 26 provinces.
• [05:16] – Regime’s fear of protester stamina, implications for future.
• [06:45] – Speculation on Khamenei’s fate if unrest continues.
• [08:32] – Ukraine segment begins: Zelensky’s shakeup explained.
• [09:37] – Analysis of war endgame and political power in Kyiv.
• [10:22] – The political subtext of bringing Budanov inside.
• [10:42] – Zelensky’s rationale and US ties emphasized.
• [13:33] – Closing insights on Ukrainian political future.

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Conclusion

Mike Baker delivers an incisive, intelligence-informed look at two of the day’s biggest geopolitical stories. The episode highlights significant vulnerabilities at the heart of Iran’s regime as public anger boils, and details the strategic maneuvering within Ukraine’s political elite as the realities of war, peace, and international pressure converge. Listeners are left with both a sense of the immediate developments and their potential long-term significance on the global stage.

Transcript

[A]

It's Monday, the 5th of January. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, new reporting suggests Iran's Supreme Leader is already planning an escape route out of the country. And as nationwide protests enter their ninth straight day. Later in the show, a major shakeup at the top in Ukraine as President Zelensky taps military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov to run his presidential office. But first, today's afternoon spotlight here at the pdb. We've been watching developments in Tehran very closely, of course, and new reporting raises serious questions about how confident Iran's leadership is in its ability to maintain control. According to a report from the Times, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has quietly plotted an escape route out of the country should his security forces fail to bring the current wave of unrest under control. That report, citing intelligence assessments, says the Republic's highest authority has identified Moscow. There's a surprise as a potential destination. An exit option prepared in advance if the situation inside Iran deteriorates beyond repair. Reportedly, he's considering leasing a nice two bedroom, two bath condo with former exiled Syrian despot Bashar Assad. Okay, I made that up. Assad is already locked into a long term one bedroom, one bath lease. I believe it's a walk up. Now, authoritarian regimes or despotic leaders don't normally plan escape routes when they feel secure. That's a statement of the obvious. They don't game out exile scenarios when they believe their grip on power is firm. Contingency planning of this kind is not routine, it's a signal. One that suggests a great deal of anxiety at the very top of the Iranian system. For years, Iran's leadership has projected an image of absolute control. A state built on fear and surveillance. And ruthless enforcement doesn't publicly entertain the idea of failure. But privately, according to this reporting anyway, the Supreme Leader appears to be doing exactly that. And that brings us to what's happening on the streets across Iran. As we reported earlier today, protests across Iran have now entered their ninth consecutive day and they show no signs of letting up. Demonstrations have now spread to more than 220 locations across 26 of Iran's 31 provinces. That's according to the US based Human Rights Activists News Agency. That means that this is no longer a localized outburst or a short lived flare up. It appears to be a nationwide unrest. To date, Iran's leadership has responded to the protests in familiar fashion. This weekend, Khamenei issued a warning declaring that what he called, quote, rioters will be, quote, put in their place. That was meant to be a line in the sand, a reminder to the people of who holds power. But so far, the people, the protesters, well, they haven't stopped. The same reporting indicates that at least 20 people have been killed so far, with more than 990 arrests as security forces attempt to regain control. And yet, despite the deaths and despite the arrests and despite the presence of armed security units, the protests continue. And that persistence is the most dangerous development for the regime. Authoritarian systems depend on exhaustion, on the belief that they, if they wait long enough or crack down hard enough, people will just go home. But when demonstrations continue day after day, spreading rather than shrinking, well, that's when you start thinking about possible exile plans. Now, Moscow is a natural choice. For Khamenei, it's become something of a sanctuary for embattled strongmen, leaders who lose control at home but retain enough value to remain useful abroad. Russian protection has become a final refuge for figures who can no longer safely rule their own countries. Syria's president, Bashar Al Assad, of course, offers a clear example of what that kind of political afterlife looks like. Power hollowed out, legitimacy gone. Survival depended on foreign backing. Iran's leadership has spent decades insisting that it would never face that kind of fate. But planning an escape route suggested, at least privately, that that confidence is eroding. And if the protests continue to grow, if security forces fail to restore order, then the question may no longer be whether the regime can intimidate its population into silence. But now, long the leaders believe they can stay. Because if things continue on this trajectory, the supreme leader may soon discover that his, his place is no longer at the center of power in Tehran, but in an anonymous apartment somewhere in Moscow, living out the quiet exile of a ruler who finally ran out of options. All right, coming up next, amid mounting pressure over a potential peace deal, President Zelensky makes a major leadership move by elevating Ukraine's top military intelligence officer to his inner circle. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here to tell you about a great company that every food loving person should know about. And it's called goldbelly. If you're a foodie, yeah, you're going to love Gold Belly. Let me tell you about them. It's an amazing site that celebrates the best of the US by shipping the country's most iconic foods from legendary restaurants and chefs straight to your doorstep. Now, I've ordered everything from ribs to briskets to lobster rolls to Chicago deep dish pizza from Gold Belly, not to mention their amazing desserts. It's incredibly easy. You can check out their site. You click on what you want, and it ships fast and fresh on dry ice. It's that simple. Amazing foods dropped right on your door. Gold Belly brings America's food icons. 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[A]

Welcome back to the Afternoon Bulletin. Ukrainian President Zelensky launched a major political shake up in Kiev, overhauling his national security leadership amid mounting pressure over how the war ends and who should govern now. This wasn't a routine shuffle or a quiet adjustment behind closed doors. Zelensky is replacing his defense minister and making Kyrylo Budanov, the country's popular military intelligence chief, his new head of the Office of the president. That's a position similar to the White House's chief of staff. In his nightly address, Zelenskyy said that the overhaul in his inner circle was needed to prepare the country for what comes next. But the logic is hard to miss. The war may not be over, but the end game is already being discussed. And that means the balance of power in Kyiv matters just as much as the balance of forces on the front lines. Budinov's elevation fills the vacuum left by the resignation of Andre Yermak, who you may remember was Zelensky's longtime chief of staff and lead peace negotiator. He stepped down back in November amid a massive corruption scandal. By bringing Budanov into the presidential office, Zelenskyy moves Ukraine's most prominent spymaster directly into the center of political power. It's a decision that lands at the intersection of prioritizing military strategy and domestic politics, especially as discussions grow louder about the prospect of elections in Ukraine if fighting can be halted. I want to point out that there's also a quieter political subtext here. Budanov has long been viewed as a potential rival to Zelenskyy in a presidential election. So instead of leaving a powerful figure outside the system, Zelensky has brought him inside, a move that reduces the risk of internal competition as Ukraine edges closer to a political reckoning. Zelensky later underscored that logic, saying Ukraine needs a sharper focus on security issues and defense development and diplomacy. He posted on X. Carillo has specialized experience in these areas and sufficient strength to deliver results. And Budinov accepted the appointment, calling it, quote, an honor at a historic time for Ukraine. And it's Washington that looms large in this decision as well. Budinov has deep ties with the US Having been trained in a CIA backed program and later treated at Walter Reed National Medical center after being wounded in combat. That relationship carries added weight as the Trump administration shapes a potential peace deal, according to a Ukrainian official familiar with the deliberations. Zelensky settled on Budnov after recent talks with President Trump at Mar A Lago in Florida, concluding he needed a top aid with credibility in Washington and European capitals to steer the peace process forward. Inside the government, Budanov is expected to press for greater emphasis on asymmetric warfare, such as sabotage and deception, the creative use of emerging technologies, the tools that defined his tenure at Ukraine's Military Intelligence Directorate. Budinov also serves as a rare backchannel negotiator, maintaining limited contact with Russian counterparts. All of this comes as the latest peace proposal calls for Ukraine to hold elections as soon as possible after a ceasefire is signed. Zelensky says he's open to elections, but says peace must come first, and that's something that Moscow has long refused to agree to. As for Zelensky's political future, he's not said whether he would run again. But by reshaping his inner circle and by drawing Budinov into the heart of presidential power, he moves to shape Ukraine's political future. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon bulletin for Monday 5th January. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to [e-mail] and of course to listen to the show ad free. That is simple. Just become a Premium member or of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.