The President’s Daily Brief – Afternoon Bulletin | January 5, 2026

Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Podcast: The President’s Daily Brief (The First TV)
Episode Focus: Instability in Iran’s Regime amid Ongoing Protests; Major Power Reshuffling at the Top of Ukraine’s Government

Episode Overview

Mike Baker offers concise, intelligence-driven reporting on two major global stories:

1. Signs of serious instability within Iran’s regime, with reports that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is planning an escape route as nationwide protests intensify.
2. A significant political shakeup in Ukraine, where President Zelensky has replaced his chief of staff with Military Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov, signaling both domestic and international repercussions as talk of peace and elections increase.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Iranian Regime Crisis: Supreme Leader’s Reported Escape Plan

[00:12 – 07:39]

• Heightened Tensions & Escape Strategy:

  • New intelligence points to Ayatollah Khamenei actively plotting an escape route from Iran, with Moscow identified as the potential safe haven should regime control collapse.
    • “Authoritarian regimes or despotic leaders don’t normally plan escape routes when they feel secure… Contingency planning of this kind is not routine, it’s a signal.” — Mike Baker [01:42]
    • The choice of Moscow is “no surprise,” with Russia serving as a sanctuary for embattled leaders (ex: Bashar al-Assad).

• Nationwide Protests Escalate:

  • Demonstrations against the regime have now persisted for nine consecutive days, spanning 220 locations in 26 of Iran’s 31 provinces—no longer a localized revolt but sustained, widespread unrest.
  • Security forces have responded with lethal force and mass arrests: at least 20 dead and more than 990 detained.

• Regime Response and Vulnerability:

  • Khamenei’s recent statement refers to protestors as “rioters” to be “put in their place”—an attempt to draw a red line and reassert authority.
  • “But so far, the people, the protesters, well, they haven’t stopped… That persistence is the most dangerous development for the regime.” — Mike Baker [03:51]
  • The regime is reliant on protests losing steam over time or being suppressed through exhaustion and repression. The ongoing momentum directly undermines this strategy.

• Implications of Escape Planning:

  • Such preparations indicate mounting anxiety at the regime’s highest levels and a break from their long-projected image of unshakable authority.
  • “If things continue on this trajectory, the Supreme Leader may soon discover that his place is no longer at the center of power in Tehran, but in an anonymous apartment somewhere in Moscow, living out the quiet exile of a ruler who finally ran out of options.” — Mike Baker [06:45]

Notable Quotes

• “Contingency planning of this kind is not routine, it’s a signal… suggesting a great deal of anxiety at the very top of the Iranian system.” — Mike Baker [01:42]
• “Authoritarian systems depend on exhaustion, on the belief that if they wait long enough or crack down hard enough, people will just go home. But when demonstrations continue day after day… that’s when you start thinking about possible exile plans.” — Mike Baker [05:16]

2. Ukraine’s Power Shakeup: Budanov Joins Zelensky’s Inner Circle

[08:32 – 13:59]

• Major Leadership Overhaul:

  • Facing mounting domestic and international pressure on peacemaking and government leadership, President Zelensky undertakes a sweeping replacement at the top, naming Kyrylo Budanov, the military intelligence chief, as head of the presidential office—a role akin to the US White House Chief of Staff.
  • This follows the resignation of longtime chief of staff Andriy Yermak amid corruption allegations.

• Strategic Calculations and Subtext:

  • Not merely a personnel change, the appointment signals preparation for “what comes next,” as open discussion of Ukraine’s war endgame and questions of governance intensify:
    • “The war may not be over, but the end game is already being discussed. And that means the balance of power in Kyiv matters just as much as the balance of forces on the front lines.” — Mike Baker [09:37]
  • By bringing Budanov inside the system, Zelensky defuses a potential challenger—Budanov is seen as a likely rival in any future presidential election.

• Diplomacy and US Ties:

  • Budanov’s deep US connections are underscored: trained via a CIA-backed program and treated at Walter Reed after combat wounds, he “carries added weight” as the Trump administration steers peace talks.
  • Zelensky made the choice after recent deliberations with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, seeking an aide with “credibility in Washington and European capitals.”

• Anticipating War & Peace:

  • Budanov is expected to press for an increased focus on asymmetric tactics (sabotage, tech innovation), and serves as a rare backchannel with Russian counterparts.
  • The latest peace proposals require Ukrainian elections soon after any ceasefire; Zelensky insists that “peace must come first,” a stance Moscow resists.

Notable Quotes

• “Zelensky later underscored that logic, saying Ukraine needs a sharper focus on security issues and defense development and diplomacy. He posted on X… ‘Kyrylo has specialized experience in these areas and sufficient strength to deliver results.’” — Mike Baker (paraphrasing Zelensky) [10:42]
• “By reshaping his inner circle and by drawing Budanov into the heart of presidential power, [Zelensky] moves to shape Ukraine’s political future.” — Mike Baker [13:33]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iranian Regime Anxiety:
  “They don’t game out exile scenarios when they believe their grip on power is firm… It’s a signal.” — Mike Baker [01:42]

• On the Protesters’ Stamina:
  “That persistence is the most dangerous development for the regime.” — Mike Baker [03:51]

• On Zelensky’s Political Strategy:
  “Instead of leaving a powerful figure outside the system, Zelensky has brought him inside—a move that reduces the risk of internal competition as Ukraine edges closer to a political reckoning.” — Mike Baker [10:22]

• On Ukraine’s Evolving Government:
  “The balance of power in Kyiv matters just as much as the balance of forces on the front lines.” — Mike Baker [09:37]

Important Segment Timestamps

• [00:12] – Episode begins, top headlines previewed: Iran unrest & Ukraine shakeup.
• [00:46] – In-depth coverage of Iran’s Supreme Leader’s potential escape to Moscow.
• [03:25] – Reports on protest intensity: 9 days, 220+ locations, 26 provinces.
• [05:16] – Regime’s fear of protester stamina, implications for future.
• [06:45] – Speculation on Khamenei’s fate if unrest continues.
• [08:32] – Ukraine segment begins: Zelensky’s shakeup explained.
• [09:37] – Analysis of war endgame and political power in Kyiv.
• [10:22] – The political subtext of bringing Budanov inside.
• [10:42] – Zelensky’s rationale and US ties emphasized.
• [13:33] – Closing insights on Ukrainian political future.

Conclusion

Mike Baker delivers an incisive, intelligence-informed look at two of the day’s biggest geopolitical stories. The episode highlights significant vulnerabilities at the heart of Iran’s regime as public anger boils, and details the strategic maneuvering within Ukraine’s political elite as the realities of war, peace, and international pressure converge. Listeners are left with both a sense of the immediate developments and their potential long-term significance on the global stage.