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PDB Afternoon Bulletin | January 6th, 2026: Why Trump Refused to Back Venezuela’s Opposition & Iran’s Assassination Plot Against Damascus
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It's Tuesday the 6th of January. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, one of the biggest unanswered questions after Maduro's ouster why the Trump administration is apparently refusing to back or support Venezuela's opposition leader. New reporting reveals what's driving that decision. Later in the show, Israeli defense sources warn that Iran may be plotting to assassinate Syria's president, Ahmed Al Sharar, as quiet contacts open between Israel and Damascus. But first, our afternoon spotlight. One of the big questions, frankly, the biggest question that obviously remains after Nicholas Maduro's ouster is what comes next and more particularly, why the Trump administration has chosen not to embrace opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Marina Corinachado as the next leader of Venezuela. And, well, a new New York Times report is now shedding some light on why that decision was apparently made. You may recall President Trump publicly dismissed Machado in recent days, saying that she lacked sufficient support and respect inside Venezuela and made clear that she would not be backed by Washington as a successor, even as she praised US Action and signaled plans to return home behind the scenes. According to the Times, that call was not impulsive. In fact, the administration had already made the decision before Maduro was removed. The reporting says the White House was persuaded by a combination of intelligence assessments and internal frustration with Machado's political strategy, assessments that raised serious doubts about the opposition's ability to actually govern. U.S. intelligence officials reportedly concluded that while Machado had popular legitimacy, her coalition lacked control of the institutions that matter, the security services, the bureaucracy, military and levers of state power. Without those, analysts warned that any attempt to install the opposition would likely collapse quickly unless the US Was prepared to maintain a sustained military presence in Venezuela. That concern was echoed by senior officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who warned that backing the opposition could further destabilize the country and drag Washington deeper into an open ended commitment on the ground, as opposed to removing Maduro and allowing his cronies to take over. In other words, from the administration's perspective, this wasn't about who had won the moral argument. It was it was about who could realistically hold the country together once the dust settled. The Times also reports that Machado's relationship with the Trump administration had been deteriorating for months. Senior US Officials grew increasingly frustrated with her assessments of Maduro's strength, feeling she consistently overstated how weak the regime was and underestimated its resilience. Over time that eroded confidence in her judgment. Apparently there were also growing doubts within the administration about whether Machado had a workable plan to translate her movement's electoral momentum into real governing authority. Well, they did win the election. There's that. After she was barred from running, U.S. officials repeatedly pressed her team to explain how her surrogate candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, would actually take power. According to people familiar with those conversations, they never received a clear answer. One particularly telling episode involved Trump envoy Richard Grinnell, who attempted to meet Machado in person in Caracas. Despite assurances of protection, she declined. Grinnell also requested a list of political prisoners the opposition wanted freed and asked for a concrete transition plan. Requests that apparently went unanswered further reportedly straining relations From Washington's point of view. Machado's uncompromising stance, refusing any engagement with remnants of the regime, and rejecting incremental steps may have reinforced her moral clarity, but it left the administration questioning her ability to navigate the realities of power. So instead, the Trump administration chose what it views as the most immediately workable option, engaging with the remaining state structure, including Maduro's vice president, Dely Rodriguez, as an interim leader. Ah, interim. Not as an endorsement of the old regime, but as but as a way to keep the country functioning without plunging it into chaos. Although to outside observers working with the Maduro regime, key players could seem like an endorsement of the old regime, since, well, those key players are the old regime. As one opposition figure told the Times, the US Appears to be betting on reforms, not on a revolution. Now, on one level, you can see the logic here. Washington looked at the landscape and chose the path that appeared to offer the least resistance. Keep the machinery of the state running, protect oil flows, and avoid the need for a prolonged US Military presence on the ground. But as you may guess, that approach carries its own risks. If the White House sidelines the democratic opposition simply because it seems easier, it risks undercutting its credibility both inside Venezuela and and with allies that are watching closely. As we told you yesterday on the pdb, the senior regime figures still in place are not reformers. They're just as corrupt, complicit and compromised as Maduro. Betting on continuity may buy you short term stability, but it also risks entrenching the very system that Washington says it wants to dismantle. It's not a perfect analogy, to be sure, but it's a bit like the White House pushing Keev to simply agree to peace, regardless of the concessions they have to make, simply to say that, well, they have peace, or to ignore the Gaza ceasefire's phase two requirements that Hamas disarm and give up governance because, well, they just seem too difficult. Capturing Maduro the face of the regime because his regime has been complicit in narco trafficking, violent repression and the outright theft of an election, but leaving his cronies in place to continue running things with the hope that they're now frightened enough to reform? Well, yes, perhaps that's easier than forcing the regime's remaining key players to accept a transfer of power to the lawfully elected opposition. But really, at the end of the day, is it anything more than a reshuffling of bad actors? There's already reporting that the new Rodriguez regime is jailing journalists and hunting down anyone they feel supported the capture of Maduro. Coming up next, just as Israel and Syria explore new contacts and channels of communication, Israeli sources warn that Iran may be moving to sabotage them with an assassination plot against Syria's new president. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, I have been known in my time to enjoy an ice cold gin martini or two, maybe on a somewhat regular basis, but. But hardly ever. Three, Almost never. Four. But here's the thing, and it's a hard truth that I have to admit, the older I get now, the more I might regret my martinis the very next morning. That's why I'm a big fan of ZBiotics pre alcohol probiotic drink. Zebiotics pre alcohol probiotic Drink, you see, is the world's first genetically engineered probiotic. 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Welcome back to the Afternoon bulletin. As Israel and Syria begin cautiously exploring renewed channels of contact, Israeli intelligence sources say Iran may be looking to scuttle those efforts coordinating with hostile actors to to assassinate Syrian President Ahmed al Sharah. Israeli defense officials say the assessment is based on recent intelligence and the timing helps explain how they're interpreting the threat. According to those officials, Sharah faces credible, ongoing pressures that are serious enough to force him to divert resources toward personal security and regime stabilization. And Israeli officials don't describe the alleged plot as an isolated or opportunistic move. They view it as a deliberate, broader Iranian effort to disrupt any recalibration that could weaken Tehran's long standing leverage over Damascus. Part of Israel's calculation regarding Syria is based on how Israel's defense establishment is now thinking about risk to the Jewish state after the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks. As long as Iran and its proxies remain active across Syria, Israel believes that it cannot afford to scale back its forward military posture along the country's northern front. Within the defense establishment, the Israel Defense Force's presence inside Syrian territory is described as a, quote, primary shield, not as a theoretical buffer, a necessary layer of protection for Israeli communities along the border. In an environment shaped by Iranian backed instability, that logic is translated into concrete policy decisions. According to reporting by the Israeli outlet Walla, several high level discussions in recent months led by Defense Minister Israel Katz culminated in a firm position. Israel should not withdraw from Syrian territory it currently controls, including the Mount Erman region. A senior IDF security source confirms that the army's top leadership has endorsed that stance. From there, Israeli officials outline how operations inside Syria are structured. And it's worth walking through that framework because it shows just how seriously the threat is being treated. Government policy divides Israeli activity into three distinct zones, each designed to counter the kind of COVID and explicit actions that officials in Jerusalem routinely attribute to Iran and its web of proxies. The first is the immediate contact zone along the international border where IDF forces operate closest to Israeli communities with the explicit aim of preventing cross border attacks and responding rapidly to emerging threats. The second is a security belt extending roughly 10 miles into Syrian territory. This area includes villages and major transportation routes. And Israeli forces focus on preventing the infiltration or entrenchment of terror groups and infrastructure footholds that Iranian backed actors have repeatedly sought to establish. The third zone is what officials describe as Israel's quote, area of influence stretching from Shah to the outskirts of Damascus. It's treated as effectively demilitarized. Israeli intelligence closely monitors activity there to prevent the establishment of new military outposts and any proxy developments that would almost certainly point back to Iran. As a result, Israeli defense officials say the suspected Iranian backed assassination plot against Shira reinforces a broader assessment they've been making for years. That Iran remains the central destabilizing force in Syria and of course the surrounding region. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon bulletin for Tuesday 6th January. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the firsttv.com and to listen to the show ad free. Well, you can do that and it's very, very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.