The President's Daily Brief – Afternoon Bulletin

Date: January 6, 2026
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Episode Focus:

• Why the Trump administration is refusing to back Venezuela’s opposition following Maduro’s ouster
• Israeli intelligence warning of an Iranian-backed assassination plot against Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharah

Episode Overview

In this episode, Mike Baker delves deep into two major international developments: the Trump administration's controversial decision not to back Venezuela's Nobel-winning opposition leader, Marina Corinachado, after the fall of Nicolás Maduro, and fresh Israeli intelligence suggesting Iran may be plotting to assassinate Syria’s recently installed president, Ahmed al-Sharah. Baker explores the strategic logic, risks, and regional implications of both stories.

Key Topics and Insights

1. The United States and Venezuela’s Opposition

[00:12–09:46]

The Big Question: Why isn’t the Trump administration supporting Venezuela’s opposition?

• The ouster of Nicolás Maduro created expectations for swift US backing of opposition leader and Nobel laureate Marina Corinachado.
• However, recent New York Times reporting (cited by Baker) reveals the Trump administration decided—even before Maduro’s fall—to withhold support from Corinachado.

Administration Thinking and Intelligence Assessments

• US intelligence believed Corinachado’s coalition, despite electoral legitimacy, lacked real control over vital state institutions (military, bureaucracy, security services).

• Quote (Mike Baker, 02:22): “Analysts warned that any attempt to install the opposition would likely collapse quickly unless the US was prepared to maintain a sustained military presence in Venezuela.”

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned that direct US support for the opposition could destabilize Venezuela further, potentially entangling the US in an open-ended commitment.

Erosion of Trust in Machado’s Leadership

• Senior US officials found Corinachado overestimated Maduro’s weakness.

• Baker on opposition’s failing strategy:

  • Quote (03:33): “Officials grew increasingly frustrated with her assessments… consistently overstated how weak the regime was and underestimated its resilience.”

• Doubts about the opposition’s ability to actually govern were heightened by their inability to provide a clear transition plan, especially regarding their surrogate candidate Edmundo Gonzalez after Corinachado was barred from running.

Diplomatic and Strategic Disconnects

• An attempt by envoy Richard Grinnell to meet Corinachado failed; she declined despite security assurances.
• Requests from the US for lists of political prisoners and concrete transition plans went unanswered, further souring relations.

Washington’s Chosen Path

• Instead of endorsing the opposition, the administration chose to engage with Maduro’s vice president, Dely Rodriguez, as interim leader.

  • Baker’s Analysis (05:01): “Not as an endorsement of the old regime, but as a way to keep the country functioning without plunging it into chaos.”

• Critics, including Venezuelan opposition figures, warn this risks merely preserving or rearranging the same corrupt regime:

  • Quote (Baker referencing the Times, 06:37): “The US appears to be betting on reforms, not on a revolution.”

• Baker warns that these moves may damage US credibility and risk entrenching corrupt power structures, comparing it to pressure for easy peace deals elsewhere:

  • Quote (08:01): “…is it anything more than a reshuffling of bad actors?”

Risks of the "Stability First" Approach

• Baker points out that the new Rodriguez regime is reportedly beginning to repress opposition:
  • “There’s already reporting that the new Rodriguez regime is jailing journalists and hunting down anyone they feel supported the capture of Maduro.” (08:30)

2. Iran’s Alleged Assassination Plot Against Syria’s President

[10:10–End]

Fresh Contacts Between Israel and Syria

• Israel and Syria are cautiously exploring renewed diplomatic contacts.
• Israeli intelligence believes Iran sees this as a threat and may be plotting to assassinate President Ahmed al-Sharah to disrupt the process.

Israeli Defense Perceptions and Responses

• The plot is seen as part of a larger Iranian campaign to maintain influence in Damascus.
• Security sources say Iran’s goal is to prevent any moves that might lessen its clout over Syria.

Israel’s Security Posture Post-October 2023

• After the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023, Israel is more committed than ever to maintaining a strong military presence along its northern front.
  • Quote (Baker relaying IDF thinking, 12:52): “The Israel Defense Force’s presence inside Syrian territory is described as a ‘primary shield… a necessary layer of protection for Israeli communities along the border.’”

Israel’s Military Framework in Syria

• Operations are structured into three zones:
  1. Contact Zone: Directly along the border—to prevent cross-border attacks.
  2. Security Belt: Up to 10 miles inside Syria aimed at disrupting terror group infiltration.
  3. Area of Influence: From Sharah to Damascus, kept demilitarized and closely monitored for Iranian proxy activity.

Strategic Implications

• The suspected assassination plot reinforces Israel’s longstanding assessment that Iran is the central destabilizing force in Syria and the broader region.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On US support in Venezuela ([02:22]):
  • “Any attempt to install the opposition would likely collapse quickly unless the US was prepared to maintain a sustained military presence.”
• On Corinachado’s leadership ([03:33]):
  • “Officials grew increasingly frustrated with her assessments… consistently overstated how weak the regime was and underestimated its resilience.”
• On Washington’s interim approach ([05:01]):
  • “Not as an endorsement of the old regime, but as a way to keep the country functioning without plunging it into chaos.”
• On illusion of reform ([06:37]):
  • “The US appears to be betting on reforms, not on a revolution.”
• On potential risks ([08:01]):
  • “…is it anything more than a reshuffling of bad actors?”
• On Israel’s military posture ([12:52]):
  • “The Israel Defense Force’s presence inside Syrian territory is described as a ‘primary shield… a necessary layer of protection for Israeli communities along the border.’”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:12] — Brief introduction / Main theme
• [01:15] — Venezuela: Why isn’t the US backing the opposition?
• [03:30] — Concerns about Corinachado’s leadership and opposition weaknesses
• [05:00] — US engagement with Maduro regime figures
• [08:00] — Risk analysis: “Stability first” vs. real change
• [10:10] — Israel-Syria contacts, Iran’s alleged assassination plot
• [12:00] — Israeli security framework in Syria

Conclusion

Mike Baker’s analysis highlights the complexity and risk of recent US and Israeli policy choices: the US prioritizes immediate stability over democratic change in Venezuela, potentially at the cost of credibility and long-term reform, while Israel, rattled by recent violence, refuses to loosen its security grip on Syria—especially with credible threats reportedly orchestrated by Iran.

Baker’s closing message:
“Stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.”