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PDB Afternoon Bulletin | July 1st, 2026: How Artificial Intelligence Will Fight The Next War
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It's Wednesday, the 1st of July. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And this afternoon, we're continuing our series of special intelligence briefings, taking just a slight break from the daily news headlines to look at the bigger picture, the geopolitical concerns, national issues, and global developments impacting the world. Today's topic is one that's generated no shortage of headlines or speculation or wealth or hype over the past several years. We're talking artificial intelligence. Now, for most people, the term conjures up images of chatbots or image generators, self driving cars, or maybe Silicon Valley entrepreneurs promising to transform the world. But while much of the public conversation has focused on commercial applications, military planners and intelligence agencies around the globe have been paying attention to something else entirely. They're asking a much different question. How will artificial intelligence change the way that nations shape the battlefields of tomorrow, fight wars, gather intelligence, and strive for global domination? And we ask, is that future still years away, or has it already arrived? The answer increasingly appears to be that the future is now. Because despite all the futuristic language surrounding artificial intelligence, the reality is that AI is already becoming part of modern warfare. It's already massively influencing intelligence collection. It's already helping military commanders process information faster than ever before. And in many cases, it's already assisting weapons systems in identifying, tracking, and and engaging targets. To understand why the AI transformation of the battlefield matters, it's helpful to remember that military history is in many ways, a history of information. Throughout history, commanders have faced the same basic challenge. They need to know where the enemy is, what the enemy's doing, and what the enemy is likely to do next. For centuries, armies relied on scouts or messengers, cavalry patrols, reconnaissance aircraft, satellites, and spies to answer those questions. The methods changed, but the challenge remained remarkably consistent. Information, of course, is valuable and timely. Accurate information is critical. And the side that can collect, process, and act upon information faster than its adversary often gains a significant advantage. Artificial intelligence has the potential to dramatically accelerate that entire process. Consider the volume of information that modern intelligence organizations collect every day. We're talking about satellite imagery, drone footage, intercepted communications, financial transactions, shipping data, social media activity, open source reporting, and countless other streams of information pouring into intelligence centers around the clock. Now, historically, human analysts had to sift through that material themselves. Even with advanced software tools, the the process could be time consuming and labor intensive. Analysts might spend hours reviewing imagery and identifying patterns and searching for anomalies. AI, of course, is changing that. Modern systems can scan enormous quantities of data in seconds, highlighting potential threats, identifying unusual activity, spotting previously unknown linkages and associations, and drawing attention to information that might otherwise be missed. Rather than replacing analysts, these systems increasingly function as force multipliers, allowing human experts to focus their attention where it matters most. Think of it as giving every analyst a team of tireless assistants capable of reviewing millions of pieces of information simultaneously. And the implications extend far beyond intelligence agencies. Military commanders face a similar challenge. Modern battlefields generate staggering amounts of data. Drones observe troop movements. Satellites monitor infrastructure. Sensors track vehicles, aircraft, and ships. Communication networks generate vast streams of information. The side that can make sense of that information most quickly often gains a significant advantage, which is why any nation with sufficient resources is investing heavily in artificial intelligence. Virtually every major military power understands that artificial intelligence may prove as transformative to warfare as precision guided munitions, stealth technology, or satellite navigation. The question is no longer whether AI will become part of military operations. The question is how quickly those changes will occur and how far they will ultimately go. Because while artificial intelligence is already helping analysts process information and helping commanders make decisions, we're beginning to see something even more significant. AI is moving from the command center to the battlefield. And nowhere is that transformation more visible than the war in Ukra. All right, before we go to break, a quick reminder that the latest episode of our premium series, the PDB Dictator Files, is out now. This week, we explore the strange history of dictators who believed that they could outrun death and what that obsession reveals but the psychology of absolute power. It's available now for Premium members@pdbpremium.com after the break, we'll examine how Ukrainian forces are already using artificial intelligence to to find, track, and destroy enemy drones and what that tells us about the future of warfare and where the line between human decision making and machine autonomy may ultimately be headed. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, this Fourth of July, of course, it's right around the corner, but it's a big one. The nation's 250th birthday, right? How about that? 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Mention that you heard about Cozy Earth right here on the pdb. Welcome back to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Before the break, we talked about how artificial intelligence is beginning to transform the way that intelligence organizations process information and the way that military commanders make decisions. But perhaps the most important development is that AI is no longer confined to command centers and intelligence headquarters. It's moving on to the battlefield. And nowhere is that more apparent, of course, than in Ukraine. If there's one lesson that military planners have taken away from the war in Ukraine, it's that the battlefield of the future has arrived far sooner than many expected. Drones have become ubiquitous, electronic warfare is constant, precision strikes occur at unprecedented scales, and increasingly artificial intelligence is being incorporated into the systems used by both sides. A recent example illustrates just how quickly things are changing. For much of the war, one of Russia's most effective weapons has been the Shahed drone. Originally developed by Iran and later produced in large numbers by Russia, the Shahed is essentially a flying bomb. Relatively inexpensive, difficult to stop in large numbers, and capable of striking targets. Deep inside Ukraine, the drones have become a staple of Russia's long range strike campaign. For years, Ukraine relied on a combination of air defenses, electronic warfare systems, and small arms fire and human operated interceptor drones to deal with the threat. Now that process is becoming increasingly automated. One Ukrainian defense company recently demonstrated an AI assisted interceptor drone designed specifically to hunt and destroy Shahed type aircraft. The system was trained using more than 10,000 videos of previous drone interceptions collected during the war. Drawing on that enormous pool of combat data, the AI learned how to recognize the shape Movement and flight characteristics of the target. The result is a system that can identify a threat Far faster Than a human operator alone. In practical terms, the process works something like A pilot launches the interceptor drone and guides it Toward a suspected target. The AI system identifies the incoming drone, Tracks it, Predicts its movement, and helps guide the interceptor into position. Once the target has been acquired, the human operator authorizes the final engagement. Notice what's happening there. The human is still involved. The AI is not independently deciding when to launch, or whom to attack, or whether lethal force should be used. But the machine is doing much of the work that once required constant human attention. And that, of course, is a significant shift. Historically, a human operator Might spend the entire engagement Searching for a target, Tracking it, Adjusting course, and maintaining visual contact. The AI now performs many of those tasks automatically, Allowing the operator to focus on higher level decisions. The goal of military AI isn't necessarily to remove humans from the process. The goal is often to allow one human to do the work that previously required many. And that's where the true military advantage engages. Imagine an air defense operator Attempting to monitor Dozens of incoming drones simultaneously. Human attention, of course, has limits. Fatigue sets in. Mistakes occur. An AI system never gets tired, Never blinks, Never becomes distracted, Never wants a lunch break, or insists on a pay rise. As a result, one operator may eventually be able to oversee Multiple engagements at the same time, Dramatically increasing efficiency without increasing manpower. And that's particularly important for countries like Ukraine, where manpower remains one of the most precious resources on the battlefield. But drone interception is only one example. AI is increasingly being used to analyze drone footage, Identify vehicles, Classify equipment, Monitor troop movements, and improve targeting accuracy. Systems are being developed that can recognize tanks, Armored vehicles, Artillery positions, and other military targets automatically. Some can even identify individual human beings. And that is where this conversation Becomes considerably more complicated. During recent demonstrations in Ukraine, AI assisted systems were shown Identifying and tracking people on the ground. In one test, the system located a designated individual and maintained a lock on that target While awaiting further instructions from the operator. Again, a human remained responsible for the final decision. But it's not difficult to see where this technology could eventually lead. For most of military history, Finding a target has often been harder than destroying it. Artificial intelligence is beginning to solve the finding problem. And once a machine can reliably identify a vehicle or a drone, A radar installation or a person, the distinction between assisting a human decision and making a human decision Becomes increasingly blurred. Military leaders understand this, and so do policymakers, and so do human rights organizations. The ethical questions are significant. How much Authority? Should an autonomous system possess? Should a machine ever be allowed to select and engage a target without human approval? Who's responsible if an AI system makes a mistake? And perhaps most importantly, what happens when multiple nations begin deploying increasingly autonomous weapons against one another? These questions remain largely unresolved. Unfortunately, technology often advances faster than governments can create rules to govern its use. What makes the current moment particularly important is that we're no longer discussing hypothetical systems that may exist decades from now. We're discussing technologies that are already being tested, used, and refined in active combat zones. The war in Ukraine has become, among many other things, a laboratory for the future of warfare. Throughout history, certain technologies have fundamentally altered warfare. The machine gun, the tank, radar, precision guided munitions, satellites. Artificial intelligence will join that list not because it replaces soldiers or commanders, but because it dramatically accelerates the process of collecting information, identifying threats, and making decisions. The countries that successfully integrate artificial intelligence into intelligence collection and military planning and battlefield operations may enjoy advantages every bit as significant as those provided by earlier military revolutions. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Wednesday 1st July. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and of course to listen to the show ad free. That's very, very doable. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me ask you a question. How many times during the week do you drop, I don't know, 10 or 20 or $30 on essentially meaningless items? You know what I'm talking about? Impulse buys or just stuff that you honestly don't need? Now, those impulse purchases, they add up, and by the end of the week or month, you're wondering where your money's gone. Well, let me tell you what you could be doing with that money. Acre Gold lets you turn that lost money into physical 24 karat Swiss gold. 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