PDB Afternoon Bulletin | June 18th, 2025:Why Iran’s Firepower Is Rapidly Fizzling Out & A Border Milestone

Summary

PDB Afternoon Bulletin | June 18th, 2025: Why Iran’s Firepower Is Rapidly Fizzling Out & A Border Milestone

Host: Mike Baker
Release Date: June 18, 2025

Mike Baker, former CIA Operations Officer and host of The President's Daily Brief (PDB) Afternoon Bulletin, delivers a comprehensive analysis of two critical issues impacting national and international security: the declining missile capabilities of Iran and a significant shift in U.S. border control policies.

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1. Iran’s Missile Attacks Against Israel Are Losing Steam

Timestamp: [00:27]

Mike Baker opens the bulletin by addressing the recent surge in tensions between Tehran and Israel. Leaders in Iran have been making aggressive statements, but Israel's robust air defenses and precise military responses have effectively neutralized Iranian military actions.

Key Details:

• Recent Threats: Iranian state media issued a chilling message predicting an "imminent event" that "the world will remember for centuries" ([00:27]).
• Supreme Leader's Declaration: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tweeted, "We will show no mercy to the Zionists," accompanied by an apocalyptic illustration depicting chaos ([00:27]).
• Failed Missile Attacks: Despite the threatening rhetoric, Iran's missile strikes on Israel have been largely ineffective. Approximately 30 missiles were launched, with Israeli air defenses intercepting almost all of them. The only casualty was minor damage to a parking lot in central Israel caused by debris from an interception ([00:27]).

Notable Quote:

"There were no casualties, no major damage. The only confirmed incident was a fire in a central Israel parking lot that damaged 20 cars, not by a direct missile hit, but by debris from an interception."
— Mike Baker [04:30]

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2. Reasons Behind the Decline in Iran’s Missile Effectiveness

Timestamp: [04:30]

Baker delves into the underlying causes of Iran's diminishing missile efficacy against Israel, attributing the decline to two primary factors:

a. Targeted Strikes on Missile Launch Platforms:

• Operation Rising Lion: Since its initiation on Friday, Israel has destroyed approximately 40% of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers, significantly degrading Iran’s offensive capabilities ([04:45]).
• Relocation of Assets: Iranian forces have been forced to retreat to Western Iran's interior, specifically the province of Isfahan, pushing their missile launchers to the edges of their effective range and complicating Israeli strikes ([05:10]).

b. Breakdown of Iran’s Command and Control:

• Leadership Losses: The assassination of Major General Ali Shedmani, a high-ranking military official connected to Supreme Leader Khamenei, has crippled Iran's emergency war headquarters. Just days after taking command, Shedmani was killed, following closely behind the death of General Gollum Ali Rashid ([06:00]).
• Impact on Military Structure: Iran's rigid, top-down military hierarchy struggles to adapt without its top commanders. This centralization leads to confusion and delays, as lower-level officers lack the autonomy to make critical decisions ([06:30]).

Notable Quote:

"Orders flow from the Supreme Leader to trusted generals, and that's where initiative tends to stop. Lower level officers are often afraid to make decisions. Mistakes are punished, fealty and caution are rewarded."
— Mike Baker [06:30]

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3. Israel Signals Ongoing and Enhanced Military Operations

Timestamp: [07:20]

Despite Iran's ineffective missile attacks, Israel indicates that its military efforts are far from over. The Israeli ambassador to the U.S. hinted at upcoming operations designed to further destabilize Iranian capabilities.

Key Points:

• Upcoming Surprises: "We've pulled off a number of surprises. When the dust settles, you're going to see some surprises on Thursday night and Friday that will make the Beeper operation almost seem simple," stated the Israeli ambassador to U.S. media ([07:20]).
• Reference to the Beeper Operation: This nod refers to a successful covert operation in September where Israel used explosive-laden pagers to incapacitate Hezbollah fighters, showcasing Israel’s innovative and strategic military tactics ([07:40]).

Notable Quote:

"We're just getting started," emphasizing Israel’s commitment to continuing its military campaign against Iran.
— Mike Baker [07:20]

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4. Iran’s Cybersecurity Crackdown Amidst Military Pressure

Timestamp: [07:50]

In response to the escalating military pressure, the IRGC’s Cybersecurity Command has implemented stringent measures to secure Iranian officials from potential cyber threats and tracking.

Details:

• Restrictions Imposed: All Iranian officials and security personnel have been instructed to avoid using internet-connected devices, including phones, smartwatches, and laptops. This includes minimizing the use of smart devices and taking necessary precautions ([08:30]).
• Official Statement: "Be sure to minimize the use of smart devices connected to the Internet and take the necessary precautions," as stated by the IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency ([08:30]).

Analysis: Baker interprets this as a sign of desperation from the Iranian regime, highlighting a rare moment of strategic adaptation amidst ongoing vulnerabilities.

Notable Quote:

"Translation well, they're scared of being tracked and possibly blown up, which is a reasonable fear."
— Mike Baker [08:45]

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5. Historic Shift in U.S. Border Control Under the Trump Administration

Timestamp: [10:11]

Shifting focus to domestic affairs, Mike Baker reports a monumental change in U.S. border security. In a complete reversal from the previous administration, the U.S. Border Patrol released zero migrants last month.

Key Statistics:

• Apprehensions Dropped: From nearly 118,000 illegal border crossings in May 2024 under President Biden to only 8,725 in the past month under President Trump—a 93% decrease ([10:11]).
• Policy Shift: The Trump administration's rigorous crackdown on illegal immigration, including dismantling the Biden-era "catch and release" policy, has been credited for this significant reduction ([10:11]).

Official Statements:

• Acting CBP Commissioner Pete Flores: "Under the leadership of this administration, CBP has received historic support... border numbers are now trending at historic lows, evidence of sustained success in restoring security along the southern border" ([10:30]).
• Paul Perez, President of the National Border Patrol Council: Criticized the Biden administration for reducing Border Patrol agents to overworked clerks and lauded the current administration for allowing agents to focus on patrolling ([10:45]).

Call to Action: Trump's border czar, Tom Holman, emphasized the need for Congress to make these gains permanent, advocating for the "big, beautiful bill" to continue robust deportation operations ([10:50]).

Notable Quote:

"The border was wide open. Now we've got the complete opposite. All of our agents are actually patrolling the border for the first time in many, many years."
— Paul Perez [10:45]

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Conclusion

Mike Baker’s Afternoon Bulletin delivers a stark analysis of the waning military prowess of Iran and a transformative leap in U.S. border security. Iran's missile capabilities are being systematically dismantled by Israeli precision strikes and internal command disruptions, while Israel hints at future operations that could further limit Iran's regional influence. Concurrently, the Trump administration's stringent immigration policies have led to unprecedented control over the U.S. southern border, marking a significant policy shift with long-term implications for national security and immigration reform.

For more insights and daily briefings on pressing national and international issues, follow The President's Daily Brief hosted by Mike Baker.

Transcript

[Mike Baker]

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[Unknown]

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[Mike Baker]

It's Wednesday, the 18th of June. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, leaders in Tehran are talking tough. But Israel's air defenses and precision strikes, well, they're talking tougher. I'll explain why Iran's firepower is fading quickly. Later in the show, major news from the border. In a stunning turnaround from just a year ago, Border Patrol didn't release a single migrant into the US Last month. We'll have those details. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. A lot of bluster has been coming from Tehran over the past 24 hours. Last night, Iranian state media issued a cryptic message warning of an imminent event that, quote, the world will remember for centuries. Shortly after, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, tweeting from what many believe to be a secure underground bunker, posted, we will show no mercy to the Zionists. His message was accompanied by by an apocalyptic illustration, fire raining down on what looked like an ancient city engulfed in chaos. Well, the evening came and went, and Tehran failed to deliver. What we did get was another pair of missile attacks. And if Iran was hoping for biblical destruction, well, it fell very short of what that might look like. The first barrage triggered sirens across parts of Israel around 12:40am local time. A second round followed about 40 minutes later, setting off alerts in central Israel. In total, the IDF said roughly 30 missiles were fired. Almost all of them were intercepted by Israeli air defenses. There were no casualties, no major damage. The only confirmed incident was a fire in a central Israel parking lot that damaged 20 cars, not by a direct missile hit, but by debris from an interception. Yet Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed otherwise. In a statement on state tv, the IRGC boldly declared that it had, quote, gained complete control over the skies of the occupied territories, end quote. Now, given even the limited access that Iranian civilians have to the Internet and social media, you have to imagine that even they understand that the IRGC's claims are ridiculous. Basically a work of fiction. These latest attacks are a far cry from Iran's initial salvos, which, while limited, did manage to temporarily overload Israeli defenses and land a few hits. So what's changed? Why are Iran's missile attacks suddenly not as effective? Two major reasons. First, Israel's targeted campaign against Iran's missile Launch platforms is working. As we discussed earlier this week on the pdb, many of Iran's launchers are mobile, making them harder to detect, but also vulnerable once identified. The IDF now estimates that roughly 40% of Iran's ballistic missile launchers have been destroyed since Operation Rising lion began on Friday. That's a staggering level of attrition in under a week. In fact, an IDF spokesman confirmed that Iranian forces have been forced to retreat from Western Iran altogether, relocating assets to the deeper interior in the province of Isfahan. That shift may buy them more time to launch, but it also pushes their missiles to the outer edge of effective range. It does require the Israeli Air Force to fly longer missions to strike targets, which is exactly what they're doing. The second reason that Iran's barrages are faltering is more systemic. Their command and control network is apparently breaking down. Just yesterday, the IDF announced the death of Major General Ali Shedmani. He's a high level military figure with close ties to the Supreme Leader. Shadmani had only just taken over command of Iran's emergency war headquarters four days ago after the previous commander, General Gollum Ali Rashid, was killed in the initial round of Israeli strikes. That's two top generals dead in less than a week. And in a military as centralized as Iran's, those losses can be devastating. Unlike Western militaries, especially the US and the UK which empower field commanders to adapt to battlefield conditions, Iran's structure is rigidly top down. Orders flow from the Supreme Leader to trusted generals, and that's where initiative tends to stop. Lower level officers are often afraid to make decisions. Mistakes are punished, fealty and caution are rewarded. So when top commanders are eliminated, well, the whole chain of command risks grinding to a halt. Confusion, delay, hesitation. That's what the IDF is exploiting. And so far, it's working. Now, while Tehran continues issuing fiery statements, Israel is signaling that it's just getting started. Speaking to US Media, the Israeli ambassador warned that the IDF still has tricks up its sleeve. He said, quote, we've pulled off a number of surprises. When the dust settles, you're going to see some surprises on Thursday night and Friday that will make the Beeper operation almost seem simple. End quote. Now that Beeper operation reference is telling. It's a nod to the Israeli covert op last September and where explosive laden pagers were used to kill dozens and injure thousands of Hezbollah fighters. A combination of electronic warfare and misdirection, it showed just how creative Israel can be when it wants to send a message. Apparently, Iran is paying attention. In what appears to be a somewhat panicked move, the IRGC's Cybersecurity Command has now issued a sweeping order. All Iranian officials and security personnel have been told to avoid Internet connected devices, phones, smartwatches, laptops, anything connected to a network. The IRGC affiliated Fars News Agency published the alert stating cybersecurity command officials and security teams are prohibited from using all equipment connected to communication networks, including phones, smartwatches, portable computers, etc. Be sure to minimize the use of smart devices connected to the Internet and take the necessary precautions. End quote Translation well, they're scared of being tracked and possibly blown up, which is a reasonable fear. It's really actually the first sensible thought that the Iranian regime has had in quite some time. All right, just a quick reminder. The president's daily brief, well, is now on Facebook. You can check us [e-mail] PresidentsDailyBrief all the latest headlines and analysis right there on Facebook. Give us a follow and stay in the loop, because you don't want to be out of the loop. You want to be in the loop. All right, coming up next, zero migrant releases at the border this past month. That would be a total of zero. 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[Mike Baker]

Welcome back to the afternoon bulletin. In a historic reversal from the Biden era, not a single migrant was released into the US Last month in what border officials credit to President Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration. Just one year ago. Under then President Biden, Border Patrol released more than 62,000 illegal crossers into the country in May. That would be 62,000 more than this past month under the Trump administration. According to internal Customs and Border Protection data obtained by the New York post, agents apprehended 8,725 illegal border crossers last month, a 93% drop from the nearly 118,000 to caught in May of 2024. Officials say it's not just a dip, it's a transformation. And the cause, well, that is being attributed to the full dismantling of Biden's catch and release regime and the reassertion of border control as a national security imperative. Acting CBP Commissioner Pete Flores made the administration's position clear in a statement, quote, under the leadership of this administration, CBP has received historic support when compared with last year. Flores added that border numbers are now trending at, quote, historic lows, describing it as evidence of, quote, sustained success in restoring security along the southern border. Paul Perez, president of the National Border Patrol Council, didn't mince words. Under Biden, he said Border Patrol agents were reduced to overworked clerks. Now they're finally able to return to their mission. He told the Post, quote, we were doing all the processing, detaining, transporting, essentially babysitting. The border was wide open. Perez stated that, quote, now we've got the complete opposite. All of our agents are actually patrolling the border for the first time in many, many years. CBP officials say the shift has allowed the agency to regain what they call operational control of the southern border, something that's been ultimately out of reach until Trump returned to office. Trump's border czar, Tom Holman, took to X with numbers to back it up. He posted, quote, in the last 24 hours, the Border Patrol encountered a total of 95 illegal aliens across the entire southern border. That is the lowest number ever recorded, placing the data in stark contrast, of course, to the 10,000 plus daily encounters during President Biden's term. But Homan wasn't finished. He called on Congress to make the gains permanent, writing that the country still needs. That referred to as a big, beautiful bill to, quote, finish the job, including launching what he described as, quote, the biggest deportation operation that the American people voted for, end quote. Well, the administration's meshes two cartels, two smugglers, and would be illegal migrants. Seems clear the southern border is no longer an open door. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Wednesday 18 June. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and to listen to the show ad free. Well, you can do that, you know, it's very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. see, I told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Foreign hey Mike Baker here. Let me take just a few seconds of your time to talk to you about your personal finances and your hard earned savings and how you can help protect them. Did you know that in the last 12 months gold's value has jumped 30%? And central banks, well, they're busy buying gold in record amounts. Look, with the usual ups and downs in the stock market and general uncertainty over the global economy and trade wars, not to mention the real wars and those pesky brics nations pushing hard to replace the US dollar, well it's no wonder that thousands of Americans are turning to Birch Gold Group because in times of uncertainty, well, gold can offer peace of mind. Birch Gold makes it easy to convert your IRA or your 401k into a tax sheltered IRA and physical gold. Or like a lot of folks, you can just buy gold to store at home. Text PDB to the number 989898 and Birchgold will send you a free information kit on gold. There's no obligation. It's just useful information with an A rating. With a Better Business Bureau and tens of thousands of happy customers take control of protecting your Savings today. Text PDB to the number 989-898.