← The President's Daily Brief
The President's Daily Brief
PDB Afternoon Bulletin | March 10, 2026: Intel Bombshell: War Unlikely To Topple Iran’s Regime & Lebanon Turns On Hezbollah
00:16:25
Loading summary
Transcript4 lines
- [00:12]
A
It's Tuesday, the 10th of March. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, a classified US Intelligence assessment casts doubt on one of the biggest questions surrounding the Iran war. Could military force actually topple the regime in Tehran? I'll bring you the details later in the show. A surprising move from Lebanon's president, who's now pushing for direct negotiations with Israel while blaming Hezbollah for dragging the country into war. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. We're starting things off with some new reporting that suggests that even before the first bombs fell on Iran, US Intelligence analysts were warning that military action alone was unlikely to produce the outcome that many in Washington have openly discussed. And that, of course, would be the collapse of the Iranian regime. According to a classified assessment produced by the National Intelligence Council, the nic, even a large scale military campaign against Iran would probably fail to remove the country's entrenched clerical and military leadership. That report reflects the combined analysis of the United States 18 intelligence agencies and was completed roughly one week before the US and Israel launched their current war against Iran on 28 February. The findings paint a sobering picture of how resilient Iran's political system may be, even under extreme military pressure, according to officials familiar with the report. Analysts examined multiple possible scenarios, including a narrow campaign focused on eliminating key regime leaders, as well as a broader assault targeting Iran's leadership and governing institutions. In both cases, the intelligence community concluded that the Islamic Republic's leadership structure is designed to survive exactly that kind of shock. It even predicted that the death of the country's supreme leader, a scenario we've already seen play out, would not necessarily lead to regime collapse. Instead, analysts say, the Iranian system includes well established mechanisms intended to preserve continuity of power. As we've already seen, the powerful clerical body known as the assembly of Experts that's quite the title is has been responsible for selecting a new supreme leader. At the same time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the irgc, the regime's powerful military and political force, would almost certainly play a decisive role in ensuring the system remains intact during any transition. In other words, the report suggests that the Iranian regime is structured to absorb the loss of even its most senior leadership and to continue functioning. Just as important, the intelligence community expressed deep skepticism that Iran's fractured opposition could quickly fill any power vacuum. According to those familiar with the report, analysts judged it unlikely that opposition groups, many of which are divided along ideological or ethnic and political lines, could organize quickly enough to take control of the country even in the aftermath of a significant military campaign. That conclusion reflects long standing assessments of the Iranian state. Despite widespread public frustration over the country's struggling economy and periodic protests against the regime, Iran's security apparatus has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to suppress, oftentimes violently, large scale unrest. As we know, during protests earlier this year, Iranian security forces reportedly killed thousands of demonstrators, some reports say tens of thousands, and detained tens of thousands more, reinforcing the regime's willingness to use overwhelming force to maintain control. And so far, there are also few signs that the ongoing U.S. and Israeli air campaign has triggered a mass uprising inside the country. Current and former U.S. officials say there's little evidence that major factions within Iran's government or security services are preparing to break away from the regime. And without those kinds of internal fractures, analysts believe the system is likely to hold together even under sustained military pressure. At the same time, the question of Iran's leadership succession has already moved from speculation to reality. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's assembly of Experts has now selected his son, of course, Mojtab Al Khamenei, as the country's new supreme leader. That's a decision that effectively preserves the continuity of the regime's ruling structure. While Mujtaba Khamenei's appointment is expected to consolidate the regime's core power centers, particularly the irgc, it doesn't necessarily mean Iran's internal politics will be free of friction. Figures like Ali La Rajani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and a longtime political heavyweight inside the regime, are still seen as influential players within the country's power structure. But according to the intelligence community's assessment, those internal rivalries are unlikely to produce the kind of rapid regime collapse that some observers in Washington may want. In short, the report underscores a key reality about the war now underway. Military operations can destroy infrastructure, weaken capabilities, and put enormous pressure on a government. But forcing regime change inside a deeply entrenched system, well, that's an entirely different challenge. All right, coming up next, Lebanon's president calls for direct negotiations with Israel and and claims that Hezbollah should be disarmed. But neither Washington nor Jerusalem appear convinced. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, folks who know me know that I may be partial to an ice cold gin martini or two on occasion, usually, well, whenever happy hour rolls around. But the truth is I don't want to pay for it the next day, and that's why I love Zebiotics. It's the first genetically engineered probiotic created by PhD scientists to help you handle those rough mornings after drinking. So here's the deal. When you have a drink, alcohol converts into a toxic byproduct in the gut. And it's actually the buildup of that byproduct, not dehydration, that's behind feeling lousy the next day, right? So ZBiotics pre alcohol steps in by producing an enzyme that helps break that byproduct down. Just make it your first drink of the night. Of course, drink responsibly, and you'll set yourself up to feel better the next day. Now, March, of course, is a marathon of social events, right? Heading towards spring, more social activity. Well, pre Alcohol helps you fully enjoy the end of winter. Go to zebiotics.com BDB to learn more and to get 15% off your first order when you use code PDB at checkout, Zebiotics is backed with a 100 money back guarantee. So if you're unsatisfied for any reason, well, they'll refund your money, no questions asked. Again, that's ZBiotics.com PDB and use the code PDB at checkout for 15% off. Mike Baker here. Now, you've probably heard me talk about Brunt Workwear before, right? It's a terrific company making comfortable, tough, and durable work boots and work wear. They're so confident that you'll love their gear. As a matter of fact, the Brunt workwear will actually let you wear their boots to the job site before deciding if you want to keep them. One of my favorites is their Marin boots, right? They're comfortable right out of the box. And that's important. No break in period. Now, Brunt was started by Eric Girard, who grew up blue collar and built the kind of tough, ridiculously comfortable boots that real tradespeople have been asking for. Brunt was tired of the workwear brands out there cutting corners. You work too hard, frankly, to be stuck in uncomfortable boots and workwear that doesn't hold up. So they built something better. It's that simple. Boots and gear that are insanely comfortable and tough enough for any job. For a limited time. Our PDB listeners get $10 off at Brunt. When you use code PDB at checkout, just head on over to BruntWorkware.com right? Use the code PDB and you're good to go. After you order, they'll ask where you heard about Brunt. Well, do me a favor and tell them the PDB set you hey, Mike Baker here. Now. Did you know that Fast Growing Trees is America's largest and most trusted online nursery? You know that they've got thousands of trees and plants and and over 2 million happy customers? Come on, seriously. 2 million satisfied customers. They have all the plants your yard or home needs, including fruit trees and privacy trees, flowering trees, shrubs. Don't forget your shrubs and houseplants. All grown with care and guaranteed to arrive on your doorstep healthy. Whatever you're looking for, Fast Growing Trees helps you find options that actually work for your climate, for your space, for your lifestyle. Right now they have great deals on spring planting essentials, up to half off on select plants and listeners to The PDB get 20% off their first purchase when using the code PDB at checkout. That's an additional 20% off for better plants and better growing. At fast growingtrees.com using the code PDB at checkout, that's fast growingtrees.com code PDB now is the perfect time to plant and use code PDB to save today offers valid for a limited time. Terms and conditions may apply.
- [09:18]
B
The New York Post has been delivering impactful headlines for over two centuries, and every weekday morning I'll bring them straight to you. I'm Caitlin Becker, host of the New York Post. Cast from Washington to Wall street. If it matters to you, you'll hear it here. And it wouldn't be the Post without the stories other outlets like to ignore. So ask your smart speaker to play the NYPostcast. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [09:44]
A
Welcome back to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. An unusual proposal is coming out of Beirut. Lebanon's president is calling for direct negotiations with Israel to establish permanent security arrangements along their shared border, while accusing Hezbollah of dragging his country into a war that serves Iran's interests. To understand what Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is actually proposing, you have to look at the framework he laid out during a virtual meeting with European Union officials. Ayoun said Lebanon wants what he called a quote, complete truce with Israel while the two countries begin direct negotiations on long term security arrangements along the border. Under that proposal, Israeli forces would gradually withdraw from positions they've taken in southern Lebanon in recent days. Those areas would then be handed over to the Lebanese armed forces, which Aoung says would assume responsibility for security along the frontier. This all sounds very familiar. At the same time, Oon says Hezbollah would be disarmed in the process, while the Lebanese military would confiscate the Iran backed group's weapons as part of what he describes as a broader stabilization effort. Now, on paper, that might sound like a pathway toward de escalation might also sound like deja vu. Here's where the skepticism from Washington and Jerusalem comes into focus. The central assumption behind Owen's proposal is that the Lebanese state can actually disarm Hezbollah. And that's something the US and Israel simply don't believe Lebanon is capable of doing. Lebanon made a similar commitment as part of the 2024 ceasefire agreement, which was supposed to push Hezbollah fighters and weapons away from the Israeli border. Israeli officials say those commitments never fully materialized with the terror group continuing to operate and as we know, rebuild its capabilities in Lebanon south. So it's no surprise that when Beirut promises that the Lebanese army will confiscate Hezbollah's weapons, officials in Washington and Jerusalem are asking a relatively simple question. Why should they believe this time will be any different? Aoun tried to address that issue during his remarks to EU officials. In unusually blunt language, the Lebanese president openly blamed Hezbollah for dragging the country into the broader regional conflict. He described the terror group as, quote, an armed faction that does not value Lebanon's interests or the lives of its citizens, accusing it of acting on behalf of the Iranian regimental rather than the Lebanese state. But even as Aun called for direct negotiations with Jerusalem, at the same time he criticized Israel's military campaign in his country, accusing the IDF of showing, quote, no respect for the laws of war while carrying out strikes that he said displaced hundreds of thousands. When paired with that statement, the military situation on the ground helps explain why Israel appears unwilling to entertain negotiations at the current time. Despite that 2024 ceasefire, Israeli forces have continued striking inside Lebanon, accusing Hezbollah of trying to rebuild its military capabilities as Beirut's army is unable to dismantle the terror group's strongholds. The situation on the ground escalated even further after Hezbollah launched rockets into northern Israel on the second day of the joint U. S Israeli strikes on Iran. From Israel's perspective, the that attack confirmed that Hezbollah was prepared to enter any conflict alongside its Iranian handlers. As we've been tracking here on the pdb, what followed was a major expansion of Israel's military campaign. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said the Jewish state sees the current moment as an opportunity to weaken Hezbollah rather than to pull back. Katz said, quote, from this point on, we must not only avoid retreating but but seized the opportunity to strike Hezbollah, end quote. At the same time, Lebanese officials have also been trying to open diplomatic channels through the Trump administration. According to officials familiar with the discussions who spoke to Axios Lebanese representatives, approached the U.S. ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, about the possibility of mediating talks with Israel, but the US Official made clear he's not interested in mediation. Barak reportedly told Lebanese officials to, quote, kids, put your earmuffs on to, quote, stop with the about disarming Hezbollah, warning that unless Lebanon takes real action to eliminate the terror group's weapons, there's little point in discussing negotiations. In other words, from Washington's perspective, promises alone are not enough. If Beirut wants diplomacy, it must first prove it can actually dismantle Hezbollah's military wing. So for now, Israel's priority remains the destruction of Hezbollah's military capabilities, not to retreat from southern Lebanon or return to negotiations. And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon bulletin for Tuesday 10th March. Now, if you have any questions or comments, and I hope you do, please reach out to me@pdb the first tv.com and to listen to the show ad free. Well, that can be done, you know. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, let me ask you this question. Have you perhaps dabbled in investing? Here and there. I think that's the way the kids say it nowadays. Dabbled. But you haven't been happy with how things are going? Well, here's a good tip. Stash helps you turn good intentions into consistent progress. That sounds pretty good, doesn't it? Stash isn't just another investing app. It's a registered investment advisor that combines automated investing with expert personalized guidance so you don't have to worry about gambling or figuring it out on your own. Don't let your money just sit around. Put it to work with stash. Go to get.stash.com PDB to see how you can receive 25 towards your first stock purchase and a few important disclosures. That's get.stash.com PdB Again, get.stash.com PDb this is a paid non client endorsement, not a guarantee and not representative of all clients. Smart portfolios are discretionary managed accounts and subject to additional fees. See the Advisory Agreement and Deposit Account Agreement for details. Investment Advisory Services offered by Stash Investments llc, an SEC registered Investment Advisor. Investing involves risk.
- [16:14]
B
My dad taught me a lot, including how easy it is to forget to cancel things. So I downloaded Experian, my bff. Big Financial Friend. Experian could help me cancel my unused subscriptions and lower my bills, saving me hundreds a year. Get started with the Experian app today. Your big financial friends here to help you save smarter. Results will vary. Not all bills are subscriptions eligible. Savings not guaranteed $631 a year Average savings with one plus negotiations and one plus cancellations paid Membership with connected payment account requ wiredseexperian.com for details. Experian.