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PDB Afternoon Bulletin | March 2nd, 2026: Iran’s Allies Turn Their Back on Tehran & Hezbollah Strikes
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It's Monday, the 2nd of March. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, day three of Operation Epic Fury and the cost of the war for the US has climbed. We'll have the latest from the battlefield and we'll take a closer look at how and why the Iranian regime is finding itself increasingly isolated on the world stage. Later in the show, Israel opens another front in the war, launching strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after the terror group fires missiles across the border into Israel. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. The US Death toll in Operation Epic Fury has now climbed to four. U.S. u.S. Central Command announced this morning that one of the service members who had been injured critically on Sunday has died. In addition to those fatalities, 18American personnel were seriously injured in that same incident. We're also learning a bit more about what happened. The casualties occurred when an Iranian missile struck Camp Arifjan in Kuwait. That base is not a frontline combat outpost, but it's a critical logistics and command hub for U.S. army operations across the Middle East. It houses pre positioned equipment and key regional headquarters elements, making it central to sustaining and coordinating American forces across the theater. That, of course, also makes it a significant target for Iran. There was another serious development today, a major friendly fire incident. Three US Air Force fighter jets were mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses. All six personnel ejected safely were recovered and are reported to be in stable condition. Kuwait has acknowledged the incident and the cause remains under investigation. Now, there's another facet of this conflict that I want to look at this afternoon, and that's Iran's alliances. Because as you know, wars aren't just fought on the battlefield. They're also fought in diplomatic back rooms and energy markets and in the quiet calculations of world leaders deciding just how much risk they're actually willing to accept. Now, on paper, Iran is not alone. Iran, it spent years cultivating what it calls strategic partnerships, especially with Russia and China. As we've already reported, both those countries have issued strong condemnations regarding the US And Israeli strikes. Both have criticized what they describe as violations of sovereignty. And as we know, Vladimir Putin is very big on respecting the sovereignty of other nations. And both nations have called for restraint and a return to diplomacy. That much was expected. But strongly worded condemnations are not the same thing as commitment. So far, neither Moscow nor Beijing has offered any tangible support for the regime. There's been no pledge of air defense systems, no deployment of naval assets, and no indication that either power is prepared to intervene directly on Iran's behalf. And that gap between rhetoric and action tells us something important about the limits of these relationships. We'll start with China. Beijing's position reflects its broader strategic priorities. China values stability in global energy markets, access to Gulf oil, and critically, the management of its relationship with Washington. With high level diplomatic engagement between the US and China expected to continue, Beijing has little incentive to escalate a conflict that does not directly threaten its core interests. China's relationship with Iran has always been transactional. Tehran supplies energy. Beijing provides investment and diplomatic cover when it suits its purpose. But it has also historically avoided entangling itself militarily in Middle Eastern conflicts. Even in previous crises involving Iran, Beijing limited itself to statements of opposition and calls for dialogue. There's no indication that this moment will be any different. Russia presents a different but equally constrained case. Moscow and Tehran have grown closer in recent years, particularly since the start of Putin's war in Ukraine. Putin has leaned on Iran to supply his military with cheap drones. By Ukrainian estimates, Russia has launched approximately 57,000 Iranian Shahed designed drones into Ukraine during its four year invasion. And the two governments share an interest in challenging US influence. So on paper, that alignment looks significant. But in practice, as we've seen before, Russia's ability to project power beyond its immediate theater has been reduced. Years of grinding war in Ukraine have stretched its military resources and strained its economy. While the Kremlin has condemned the strikes on Iran, it has stopped short of signaling any readiness to intervene. There's also a hard economic reality at play. Instability in the Gulf is already pushing oil prices higher. And higher prices ultimately benefit Russia's energy driven economy and help sustain its war effort. In fact, Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev appeared to gloat about this over the weekend, posting on X quote, $100 per barrel of oil soon. So this economic dynamic creates little urgency for Moscow to assume additional risk on Iran's behalf. What this moment shows is that Iran's partnerships are rooted in shared opposition to the US not in mutual defense obligations, shared ideology or shared value systems. There's no equivalent of a NATO style security guarantee binding these powers together. When the stakes involve direct confrontation with US and Israeli forces, each country is calculating its own exposure. Now this doesn't mean that Russia or China are going to remain passive forever. They could increase diplomatic pressure, expand economic coordination, or use this crisis to try and extract concessions elsewhere. But so far the evidence suggests that Iran is largely facing this fight without any meaningful backing. All right. Coming up next, while China and Russia may be watching from the sidelines right now, one Iranian ally or proxy has decided to get involved, and that would be Hezbollah. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, whether you're in a one or two income household, if you're a breadwinner, you, you're carrying a lot of responsibility. Well, of course, you know that mortgage payments, tuition, everyday bills that don't just disappear should something happen to you or your partner. But thinking about it, thinking about the what ifs in life, well, that can be overwhelming. 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Just after midnight, Hezbollah fired rockets from Lebanon into Israel, prompting retaliatory strikes near Beirut, reopening a front that's largely been quiet since the 2024 ceasefire. It didn't take long before sirens were sounding across northern Israel as the rockets breached Jerusalem's airspace. According to Axios, one projectile was intercepted and others fell in open areas. While the initial barrage caused no reported casualties inside Israel, it does mark a sharp escalation along the Israel Lebanon frontier, one that has been relatively quiet for months. Not long after Jerusalem responded, explosions shook the southern outskirts of Beirut as Israel's military moved to strike Hezbollah targets. In response, and I want to point out, Hezbollah made no attempt to distance itself from the early morning attack. The terror group quickly claimed responsibility, framing the rocket and drone barrage as retaliation for Israeli strikes on the Islamic Republic and more pointedly, as revenge for the killing of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. From Israel's perspective, the intent was unmistakable. In a statement from the Israeli military chief of staff, quote, hezbollah opened a campaign overnight and would be fully responsible for any escalation. As I mentioned, Israel wasted little time in responding. Airstrikes hit the Dahya district in southern Beirut, which is a densely populated area with long regarded as a Hezbollah stronghold. While Israeli forces have conducted operations against Hezbollah in southern and eastern Lebanon in recent months, strikes near the capital have been rare. The explosion sent residents fleeing the capital with videos posted to social media showing traffic jams as civilians try to get out ahead of further Israeli retaliatory attacks. Lebanese state media reports more than 30 people were killed and nearly 150 injured so far. As operations expand, the Israeli military issued evacuation warnings to residents in roughly 50 villages across eastern and southern Lebanon, urging civilians to leave areas that are near Hezbollah facilities inside Lebanon. The fallout was immediate, and maybe not in the way that Hezbollah expected. The country's prime minister condemned the Hezbollah rocket and drone launches as irresponsible, warning they endanger Lebanon's national security and invite retaliation. Shortly after, the Lebanese prime minister issued another statement, this time announcing a ban on Hezbollah's military activities altogether and declaring any armed operations outside of state authority illegal. Now, for those of you who may be unfamiliar, Hezbollah operates independently of Lebanon's government and has long served as Tehran's primary proxy in the region. Although the terror group was significantly weakened during the 2024 war when Israel eliminated much of its senior leadership Hezbollah has refused to fully disarm in accordance with the ceasefire. That, of course, mirrors Hamas's failure to disarm under the terms of their existing ceasefire with Israel. Under sustained pressure from Washington and Jerusalem, the Lebanese government agreed to dismantle Hezbollah's arsenals. Yet the group rejected surrendering weapons north of the Litany river, insisting that ceasefire terms only apply to areas south of it near the Israeli frontier. That unresolved dispute now collides with the broader war. By launching rockets in retaliation for Khamenei's killing, Hezbollah effectively tethered Lebanon's stability to Tehran's military decisions. And so, with Hezbollah now engaged, Lebanon risks becoming a new front, not by decision of its elected government, but because, as some would expected, Iran's strategy of proxy warfare has deliberately broadened the war on its behalf. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Monday 2nd March. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the firsttv.com and to listen to the show ad free. You can do that. It is really very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of your time to talk about security and specifically your online security, and to tell you about Deleteme. It's a great company out there working to make people safer online. 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