
Loading summary
A
It's Wednesday, the 20th of May. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. First up, after decades buried inside U.S. intelligence files, a controversial audio recording allegedly tied to former Cuban leader Raul Castro is suddenly back in the spotlight as the Justice Department unveils criminal charges tied to the deadly 1996 brothers to the Rescue shoot down. Later in the show, Iran issues a warning to Washington threatening retaliation beyond the Middle east if the US Or Israel launches new strikes against the Islamic Republic. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. The Department of Justice has officially unveiled criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raul Castro, accusing the longtime communist figure of involvement in the deadly 1996 shoot down of two civilian aircraft operated by the Miami based humanitarian group Brothers to the Rescue. The announcement came during a ceremony at Miami's historic Freedom Tower honoring the victims of that attack, a highly symbolic setting of for what's now shaping up to be one of the most aggressive actions taken by Washington against the Cuban regime in decades. The charges stem from the February 24, 1996 shoot down of two unarmed Cessna aircraft over the Florida Straits. The planes belong to Brothers to the Rescue, a Cuban exile organization founded to search for rafters and refugees attempting to flee the island by sea. That afternoon, Cuban MiG fighter jets intercepted the small civilian aircraft and and fired air to air missiles, obliterating both planes. Four men were killed in the attack. Carlos Costa, Mario de la Pena, Pablo Morales, and Armando Alejandre Jr. Three of the victims were American citizens and their bodies were never recovered. At the time, the Clinton administration condemned the incident as a blatant violation of international law. And the shootdown helped pave the way for the Helms Burton act, which tightened and effectively codified the American embargo against Cuba. But while the political fallout was immediate, the criminal accountability effort largely disappeared from public view for decades until now. And part of the reason this case has suddenly returned to the spotlight involves a piece of evidence that for years sat buried inside American intelligence files. An 11 minute audio recording allegedly capturing Raul Castro discussing the shoot down. According to declassified US Government documents, intelligence officials obtained recordings in the aftermath of the attack that appeared to capture senior Cuban officials discussing the operation. In one particularly explosive passage, a voice alleged by some Cuban exile groups to be Castro can reportedly be heard describing how Cuban pilots were instructed to wait until the civilian planes were over the water before firing. At one point, the voice says, quote, knock them down into the sea when they reappear. End quote. Now the Recording has long been controversial. According to a declassified 1996 intelligence memo, the some U.S. officials reportedly questioned whether the voice on the tape actually belonged to Raul Castro at all. Intelligence officials at the time apparently cautioned lawmakers that they could not definitively confirm the identity of the speaker. Still, despite those doubts, the tape became infamous inside Cuban exile circles and among some lawmakers who viewed it as direct evidence linking Castro to the attack. And according to Florida Congressman Mario Diaz Ballard, the evidence never truly disappeared. It was just simply never acted upon. Speaking to USA today, Diaz Ballart said the Justice Department assembled a working group after President Trump returned to office. With prosecutors reportedly rebuilding the case from scratch over the past year, the move now signals what appears to be a much broader escalation in the administration's posture toward Havana. On the same day as the indictment announcement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a Spanish language video message addressed directly to the Cuban people, the first such address of his tenure. In the video, Rubio blamed the island's worsening blackouts and food shortages and economic collapse, not on sanctions, but on corruption and theft by Cuba's ruling elite. Rubio specifically targeted Geissa, the sprawling military run business conglomerate founded by Raul Castro that reportedly controls enormous portions of the Cuban economy, including hotels and banks, construction firms, retail chains and tourism infrastructure. Rubio said in the video, cuba is not controlled by any revolution. Cuba is controlled by geyser. Rubio also accused Cuba's leadership of enriching itself while ordinary Cubans face worsening hardship, rolling blackouts and shortages of food and fuel. At the same time, the Trump administration is reportedly offering what Rubio described as a, quote, new relationship directly with the Cuban people while deliberately bypassing the communist government. According to Axios, Rubio said the administration is prepared to provide up to $100 million in food, medicine through the Catholic Church and charitable organizations rather than through state controlled institutions. Taken together, today's indictment, Rubio's speech, and the administration's expanding sanctions campaign all point toward the same conclusion. Washington appears to be abandoning any serious expectation of normalization with Havana anytime soon. All right, coming up next, the Iranian regime threatens to expand the battlefield beyond the Middle east if the US Restarts military operations. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a tip for gamers who are looking for the next great strategy game. I got one for you. I'm talking about Supremacy World War three. Look, it's a free to play grand strategy game where you lead a country through near future conflict. So sounds very familiar in today's world Matches unfold over weeks, not minutes. You're managing stealth bombers and submarines and other assets against 99 players in real time. If you love tactics and strategic thinking, you're going to love supremacy World War 3. It's about forging alliances and navigating betrayals. It's also fully cross platform for PC and mobile. Whether you prefer stealth and precision or maybe total outright war, there's a strategy that fits your style. Download Supremacy World War III for free and see if you've got what it takes to dominate the global battlefield. There's a link in the show Notes and a QR on screen if you're watching on video. If you download the game via my link, you'll get an exclusive starter pack containing the Elite Bomber seasonal unit, which has a value of USD$25. You see how I said USD$25? Very official. The offer is valid for the next 30 days. Go on, check it out. Supremacy World War 3. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now let me ask you a question. Do you ever wonder what happens to those quote natural brands when they go corporate? You know what I mean? They often get swallowed up by private equity and suddenly those simple, natural ingredients that you love, well, they're not so simple or natural anymore. But I want to tell you about Van Man Company. Van man company is doing things differently. They're heading back to the basics. Their signature tallow balm, for example, is built on a powerful truth. Your skin should be fed what it actually understands. Here's the thing. Because the fatty acids and tallow closely match your skin's natural oils, it absorbs effortlessly, leaving you soft and smooth from day one. And who doesn't want that? Come on. It's the ultimate multi tool for your cabinet. People use it in place of lotion or night cream or wrinkle cream, and even as a soothing balm for irritated skin. So if you're ready to ditch the corporate chemicals, go to Vanman Shop PDB and use the code BDB for 15 off your first order. That's Vanman Shopify. And use code PDB for 15% off your first order. Van Man Real ingredients. Absolutely no exceptions.
B
It's cozy season, and nothing compares to wrapping yourself in a Minky Couture blanket. Luxuriously soft, perfectly warm, thoughtfully made from movie nights to chilly mornings, Minky Couture turns everyday moments into pure comfort. Once you feel it, you'll understand why it's called the original Best blanket ever. Visit minkycouture.com or a store near you and make this cozy season your softest one yet.
C
Hey, Bill O'Reilly here. Please check out my new interview series, We'll do it live. Each Thursday, I sit down with the most influential people in America for a no spin chat, no script. Anything could happen. You can find We'll do it live on BillOriley.com YouTube or wherever you download your podcast.
A
Welcome back to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Iran is once again warning that any renewed US Strikes against the regime could trigger retaliation well beyond the Middle east, as the White House continues to use the threat of force to to break the diplomatic deadlock with Tehran. Now, despite the talk of negotiations, there are growing signs that both sides are positioning for the possibility that the ceasefire collapses entirely, because apparently we're still pretending that there actually is a working ceasefire in place. The Islamic Republic is escalating its rhetoric through the irgc, which essentially is in charge, while President Trump continues weighing military options after reportedly coming close to authorizing another round of attacks earlier this week. Now, I want to point out the IRGC language here. We're hearing in new reporting from Bloomberg that the regime is no longer simply threatening retaliation in the Persian Gulf. The regime is very deliberately trying to inject uncertainty into the situation by implying that it could widen the conflict geographically if the US Resumes military operations in whatever form. And we've already seen glimpses of that strategy during the opening stages of the conflict. You may recall when Iran launched missiles and drones not only toward Israel, but also toward Gulf states, Cyprus, and even Turkey after the war first erupted back on 28 February. So when the IRGC now warns about delivering crushing blows in places you do not expect, this is less about projecting confidence and more about sowing uncertainty within the international community. While Iranian officials continue to project defiance, the reality is that the regime's military absorbed significant damage before the ceasefire took hold on 8 April, US and Israeli airstrikes heavily degraded parts of the regime's operational infrastructure. And despite the rhetoric, there is little evidence that the leadership in Tehran genuinely wants another military bout with Washington. What Iran appears to want instead is leverage. The threats, the warnings, the increasingly aggressive rhetoric from the irgc, all of it seems designed to raise the perceived cost of escalation among US Allies and pressure Washington into softening its demands at the negotiating table. At the same time, though, the White House does not appear interested in simply letting the regime drag negotiations out indefinitely. We've been tracking this week's reports, this one from Axios, that Trump convened his national security team Monday for another briefing on military options against Iran just Hours after announcing that he was temporarily holding off on strikes that had been under consideration yesterday, Trump suggested another round of strikes could happen within days if negotiations continue stalling, warning, quote, we may have to give Iran another big hit. I'm not sure yet. You will know soon, end quote. Inside Washington, there appears to be growing uncertainty about where exactly the administration is heading next. Well, that would be because the White House has been unpredictable since the conflict began. Some White House officials expected Trump to authorize strikes this week, and others were surprised when he instead announced a temporary pause. Trump later claimed he'd been, quote, an hour away from approving military action before deciding to hold off. According to a source close to the White House, several Iran hawks came away with the impression that the president is increasingly, quote, in the mood of cracking their head open to get them to move in the negotiations, end quote. Really diplomatic language there. Now, whether Trump ultimately follows through is still unclear, but what is clear is that military options remain very much alive inside the administration. Meanwhile, the negotiations themselves are basically stagnant or deadlocked or dormant. Choose your favorite word for not happening. Iran continues refusing Trump's demands to surrender its highly enriched uranium or permanently halt enrichment activities, claiming that enriching uranium, apparently to near weapons grade purity, is their sovereign right. The existing Iranian regime continues to act as if they believe that they can win this staring contest with the White House. They understand the realities of American politics, have undoubtedly looked at the polling numbers, understand the pressure on the administration to end the conflict well ahead of the midterm elections, as well as the pressure to get gas prices down for the voters. And they've seen the recent move by the US Senate to force the White House to either end the war or get congressional approval to continue. And undoubtedly the regime considers all those things in their favor as illogical as it may seem. The existing Iranian regime, which at this point is basically the IRGC leadership, believes that it's winning. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Wednesday 20 May. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and to listen to the show ad free. Well, you can do that. It's very simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com See? Told you it was simple. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, many of you know me as the host of the pdb, right? But did you know, I'm also a business owner. I have been for years. And I want to take just a moment to talk with all of you business owners out there. Now, you probably already know that small businesses face an uphill batt. Big banks where getting a loan means endless paperwork and delays. But I want to tell you about a business out there working to make life easier for small businesses. And of course, I'm talking about Cardiff. For bank rates without the weight. I want you to go to Cardiff Co PDB for up to $500,000 in funding. Their application takes less than five minutes, has no impact on personal credit, and approvals can happen in minutes. With same day funding. It's the fastest way to get the capital you need to keep your business moving forward. Look, banks try to lock out small businesses, but Cardiff has the key. Big banks may not want to approve your business loans, but Cardiff does. If you've been in business for at least a year and are pulling in $20,000 a month in revenue, apply now for up to $500,000 in same day business funding at Cardiff Co PDB. Again, that's Cardiff Co PDB. Real growth, fast funding. That's Cardiff.
The President's Daily Brief - Afternoon Bulletin | May 20th, 2026
Host: Mike Baker (Former CIA Operations Officer)
Episode Theme:
A major escalation in U.S.-Cuba relations as Raúl Castro is charged over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, paired with developing tensions between the U.S. and Iran as Tehran threatens retaliation if military strikes resume.
This episode explores two high-stakes foreign policy developments:
Mike Baker delivers expert context, key details, and implications for both crises.
[00:12–09:10]
Background of the Incident:
Justice Department Action:
Key Evidence Resurfaces:
Motive for Emerging Action:
Escalation Beyond the Courts:
Strategic Implications:
[09:10–End]
Renewed Iranian Warnings:
Recent History and Damage:
Strategic Purpose of Iranian Threats:
The regime wants “leverage” at the negotiating table—using threats to pressure the U.S. and its allies into softening positions.
U.S. Policy Uncertainty:
President Trump is actively weighing military responses—reportedly deliberating new strikes if negotiations stall.
Administration unpredictability: Some expected immediate military action, but Trump announced a temporary pause, noting he was “an hour away” from authorizing strikes.
Diplomacy Stalled:
“Knock them down into the sea when they reappear.”
“The evidence never truly disappeared. It was just simply never acted upon.”
“Cuba is not controlled by any revolution. Cuba is controlled by Gaisa.”
“We may have to give Iran another big hit. I’m not sure yet. You will know soon.”
“Several Iran hawks came away with the impression that the president is increasingly 'in the mood of cracking their head open to get them to move in the negotiations.'”
Summary Takeaway:
This episode details a significant hardening of the U.S. approach toward former adversaries Cuba and Iran, marked by historic legal action and shifting diplomatic tactics. The resurfacing of long-held evidence against Raúl Castro and Rubio’s direct outreach symbolize a new pressure campaign against Havana, while Baker’s breakdown of U.S.-Iran tensions highlights the high-wire balancing act as both sides test each other’s resolve amid a deadlocked peace process. The outcome in both theaters could have profound repercussions for U.S. foreign policy and regional dynamics.