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Mike Baker
Start your day off right. Pour yourself out a cup or two or three or however many you want frankly, of blackout coffee. This is a great American family owned business and they are entirely focused on producing delicious premium coffee, fresh roasted and shipped out within 48 hours of roasting. Think about that. Go to blackout coffee.com promo code PDB for 20% off your first time purchase. It's Friday the 15th of November. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Okay, fair enough. It's the late afternoon bulletin. I suppose even the early evening afternoon bulletin at this point. It's the travel schedule folks. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed first in some, well, let's call it embarrassing news for the mullahs in Iran. A bombshell report reveals that Israel managed to take out a secret Iranian nuclear research facility during their retaliatory strike against the Islamic regime in late October. Then we're learning that in the month leading up to the US Presidential election, Iranian officials gave written assurances to the Biden administration that they would not target Donald Trump for assassination. Well, isn't that nice of them? How magnanimous. Which of course is our PDB word of the day. But first, our afternoon spotlight. It turns out Israel's retaliatory strike against Iran last month did far more than knock out the air defense networks there in Iran and damage their missile program. According to an exclusive report from Axios, Israel destroyed an active top secret nuclear weapons research facility located just 20 miles south of Tehran. The site, which was previously thought to be inactive, came to the attention of Western intelligence agencies earlier this year when research activity appeared to resume, including work on computer modeling, metallurgy and explosives that all could be used to develop a nuclear weapon, Israeli and US Intelligence sources said. Israel's strike on the research facility in Iran's Parchin military complex, part of their broader retaliation against Iran on October 25, significantly set back Iran's progress on resuming nuclear weapons research over the past year. One Israeli source told Axios that the strike destroyed sophisticated equipment needed to create the plastic explosives placed around a nuclear device's uranium core and used to trigger a detonation. Satellite imagery following the strike showed the entire facility was completely wiped out. Knowledge of the research being done at this site was reportedly kept within a very tight circle of Iran's leaders and conducted in a way that could be presented to outside observers as research for civilian purposes. Which of course, is the explanation that the Iranian regime has repeatedly given over the years for their nuclear program. Nothing to see here, folks. It's just for civilian purposes. A US Official told Axios, quote, they conducted scientific activity that could set the table for the production of a nuclear weapon. It was a top secret thing? Well, yeah, apparently so. A small part of the Iranian government, they said, knew about this, but most of the Iranian government didn't, end quote. This secrecy made it a prime target, of course, for Israel. While international pressure was high for Israel to refrain from striking Iran's nuclear facilities, including pressure from President Biden, the site at Parchin was not part of Iran's declared nuclear program. If Tehran acknowledged the attack, of course, they would also have to admit they flagrantly violated the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. But seriously, who could have guessed that the world's number one state sponsor of terrorism might also be flagrantly violating the Nuke treaty? A US Official told Axios the strike was a not so subtle message that the Israelis have significant insight into the Iranian system, even when it comes to things that were kept top secret and known to a very small group of people in the Iranian government. The facility previously served as a key part of the Iranian Ahmad nuclear weapons program, used for testing explosives needed to set off a nuclear device. However, it was shut down in 2003 after Iran indefinitely paused their official military nuclear program. Now, in June, the Biden administration privately reached out to Iran to warn them that they were aware of suspicious activity that had resumed at the site, hoping that that would cause the Iranians to stop their nuclear research, but to no avail. Now let me just repeat that sentence in case you didn't catch how bizarre that White House strategy might be. In June, the Biden administration privately reached out to Iran to warn them that they were aware of suspicious activity that had resumed at the site. And they did that hoping it would cause the Iranians to stop their nuclear research. That's a foreign policy based on hope and dreams, okay? A US Official said that in the months leading up to Israel's strike, there was widespread concern among Western intelligence circles about the progress that Iran was making. That progress even led the U.S. director of National Intelligence to change their long standing assessment in August regarding Iran's nuclear program, saying they could no longer confidently say Iran was not actively pursuing a, quote, testable nuclear device. Iran, unsurprisingly, has denied that they are pursuing a bomb, with their foreign minister, saying just last week, quote, iran is not after nuclear weapons, period, end quote. Remember, it's just for civilian purposes, folks. Now, that that purpose may be to kill lots of civilians, but maybe I'M just being overly pragmatic. As we discussed on this morning's episode, the head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, or the IAEA, was in Tehran this week to meet with senior Iranian leaders regarding ongoing concerns about their nuclear activity and to tour two of their key nuclear facilities. The IAEA is expected to vote next week on a resolution condemning the regime's lack of cooperation with UN inspectors, which has severely limited their ability to engage in comprehensive nuclear oversight. Iranian leaders, however, have indicated that they might further reduce their cooperation with the IAEA and international community if the resolution does move forward. Coming up, we're learning that in the month leading up to the US presidential election, Iranian officials so they're quite in the news, aren't they? Gave written assurances to the Biden administration that they would not target Donald Trump for assassination. I'll be right back.
Hey, Mike Baker here. Let's talk security for a moment. Look, going online without ExpressVPN is like. Well, it's like leaving your laptop unattended at the coffee shop while you run to the bathroom. Maybe you're thinking, hey, it's my neighborhood coffee shop. What's going to go wrong? It'll be fine. But what if one day you come out of the bathroom and your laptop is gone? Look, here's the problem. Connecting to unencrypted networks in cafes or hotels or airports, it puts your online data at risk. Hackers can easily access sensitive information like passwords and credit card details on these networks. And frankly, hacking doesn't require advanced skills, just some cheap hardware making it fairly accessible to anyone. Your data is valuable. Hackers can and will sell it on the dark web, and there are plenty of buyers out there. Now, A VPN like ExpressVPN creates a secure, encrypted tunnel between your device and the Internet, protecting your data from theft. In short, a VPN is essential for keeping your online privacy safe. ExpressVPN is a top rated VPN that hides your IP address, protecting your online activity from third parties. It's easy to use with one click protection and works across all devices, ensuring privacy on the go. And also get this, it's rated number one by tech reviewers like CNET and the Verge. Look, it's just common sense. Why wouldn't you do what you can to protect your personal data and activities? For me, ExpressVPN is a logical, easy to use and effective tool in the constant battle to maintain privacy and security. Secure your online data today by visiting expressvpn.com baker that's expressvpn.com baker and you can get an extra three months free. Expressvpn.com baker hey, Mike Baker here. Let's talk security for a moment. Look, going online without ExpressVPN is like. Well, it's like leaving your laptop unattended at the coffee shop while you run to the bathroom. Maybe you're thinking, hey, it's my neighborhood coffee shop. What's going to go wrong? It'll be fine. But what if one day you come out of the bathroom and your laptop is gone? Look, here's the problem. Connecting to unencrypted networks in cafes or hotels or airports, it puts your online data at risk. Hackers can easily access sensitive information like passwords and credit card details on these networks. And frankly, hacking doesn't require advanced skills, just some cheap hardware making it fairly accessible to anyone. Your data is valuable. Hackers can and will sell it on the dark web, and there are plenty of buyers out there. Now, A VPN like ExpressVPN creates a secure, encrypted tunnel between your device and the Internet, protecting your data from theft. In short, a VPN is essential for keeping your online privacy safe. ExpressVPN is a top rated VPN that hides your IP address, protecting your online activity from third parties. It's easy to use with one click protection and works across all devices, ensuring privacy on the go. And also get this, it's rated number one by tech reviewers like CNET and the Verge. Look, it's just common sense. Why wouldn't you do what you can to protect your personal data and activities? For me, ExpressVPN is a logical, easy to use and effective tool in the constant battle to maintain privacy and security. Secure your online data today by visiting expressvpn.com baker that's expressvpn.com baker you can get an extra three months free. Expressvpn.com baker welcome back to the afternoon bulletin.
Sticking with Iran it appears that leaders of the Islamic regime sought to distance themselves from the assassination plots aimed at President elect Donald Trump before Americans headed to the polls in November. According to an exclusive report from the Wall Street Journal, Iranian officials provided written assurances to the Biden administration roughly a month before the US Presidential election, promising that they would not seek to kill Trump. The message from Iran, delivered on 14 October, came in response to a written warning sent by the Biden administration to Tehran in September, which said they viewed plots against Trump as a top national security concern and that any attempts to assassinate him would be viewed as an act of war by Iran. While the message from Iran was not signed by a specific official, sources in the White House said they're confident that their warning reached Iran's senior leadership. Iran reportedly did not admit to ever targeting Trump in their note, but repeated their long standing position that Trump and members of his administration committed a crime by killing Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in a 2020 drone strike. The White House message reflected previous warnings given to Iran by the US over their targeting of Trump, but was reissued as new information came to light regarding active plots. As you're likely aware, federal prosecutors charged a Pakistani man in August for plotting to kill Trump on behalf of the regime, prompting the US Government to bolster Trump's security on the campaign trail. We then learned last Friday that members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary guard corps, the IRGC, hired a 51 year old Iranian national in September to surveil and ultimately assassinate Trump. Though that plot was ultimately thwarted, intelligence officials have described Iran's many plots against Trump as, quote, ongoing. The regime has also long been targeting members of Trump's first administration for assassination for their involvement in the strike on Soleimani. Due to the threats, the US Government has been providing round the clock security for former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former National Security Adviser John Bolton, and Trump's Special envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, who is expected to once again take the lead on the issue of Iran when Trump returns to office. Iran's foreign minister formally reacted to these allegations for the first time earlier this week, dismissing the claims as, quote, third rate comedy. As we've been discussing in recent days, the Iranian regime appears to be trying to pivot from their adversarial stance with the US in the wake of Trump's victory, likely fearing the impact that Trump's promised maximum pressure campaign could have on their fragile economy, not to mention on the mindset of their population. On Monday, the Iranian president signaled a desire to engage in direct diplomacy with the incoming Trump administration. Reports also surfaced that Iran has postponed their planned retaliation against Israel until negotiations with President Trump begin. Whether or not Trump is prepared to negotiate with the regime, well, that remains to be seen. An analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank told the Wall Street Journal, quote, iran can't seriously float trial balloons for engagement while plotting to eliminate its would be negotiating partners. It's like reaching out with one hand to make a deal while holding a blade in the other, end quote. And that, my friends, is the PDB afternoon bulletin for Friday 15th November. Now, if you have Any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb@the first tv.com and as you probably discovered upon waking up this morning, it's Friday, which means a brand spanking new episode of our much loved PDB Situation Report airs tonight at 10pm on the first TV. It's also available on our much loved YouTube channel. That's @ President's Daily Brief and of course, all podcast platforms. This weekend's cavalcade of guests includes the always insightful retired Lt. Col. Tony Schaefer. Now, Tony was on the 2016 Trump administration transition team as well as he's advised and worked with senior Pentagon and Defense Department officials and was an advisor to now DNI nominee Tulsi Gabbard. So he'll be providing his thoughts on the current nominees for senior positions in the upcoming second Trump White House. We've also got Brandon Weickert. He's a most excellent geopolitical analyst and he's the author, importantly, of a terrific book and that's called Winning How America Remains a Superpower. We'll be talking UFOs, will we? Well, we will be. And government transparency or lack thereof. I'm Mike Baker and I'll be back over the weekend with the PDB Situation Report. Until then, well, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.
The President's Daily Brief (PDB) Afternoon Bulletin
Episode: November 15th, 2024
Host: Mike Baker
Release Date: November 16, 2024
In a significant escalation of Middle Eastern tensions, Israel launched a retaliatory strike against Iran on October 25th, successfully destroying a clandestine nuclear research facility located in Iran's Parchin military complex, just 20 miles south of Tehran. This action marks a substantial setback for Iran's ambitions to resume its nuclear weapons program.
Key Points:
Target and Impact: The targeted facility, previously believed inactive, was actively engaged in research related to computer modeling, metallurgy, and explosives—key components for developing a nuclear weapon. According to an exclusive report by Axios, the strike obliterated sophisticated equipment essential for creating plastic explosives used in nuclear detonations.
Intelligence Insights: Israeli and U.S. intelligence sources revealed that Western agencies had become aware of the facility's resurgence earlier in the year. A U.S. official elaborated, "They conducted scientific activity that could set the table for the production of a nuclear weapon. It was a top secret thing." (Timestamp: 02:15) This level of secrecy underscores the severity of Iran's covert operations.
International Ramifications: The destruction of the facility not only hampers Iran's nuclear progress but also sends a clear message regarding Israel's surveillance capabilities. A U.S. official stated, "The Israelis have significant insight into the Iranian system, even when it comes to things that were kept top secret and known to a very small group of people in the Iranian government." (Timestamp: 05:30)
Diplomatic Tensions: Despite international pressure, including from President Biden, Israel proceeded with the strike as the Parchin site was not part of Iran's declared nuclear program. This move challenges Iran's defense of its nuclear activities as purely civilian, highlighting potential violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
Implications: The attack not only delays Iran's nuclear ambitions but also strains U.S.-Israel relations, showcasing a unilateral approach by Israel in addressing perceived threats. Satellite imagery confirming the facility's destruction reinforces the credibility of intelligence reports and heightens global concerns about nuclear proliferation in the region.
Amidst the charged atmosphere leading up to the U.S. Presidential election, Iranian officials issued written assurances to the Biden administration, pledging that they would refrain from any assassination attempts against President-elect Donald Trump.
Key Points:
Assurances Rendered: According to the Wall Street Journal, Iranian officials provided these written assurances on October 14th, approximately a month before the election. This gesture came in response to a September warning from the Biden administration, which classified plots against Trump as a top national security concern, stating that any assassination attempt would be deemed an act of war by Iran (Timestamp: 12:45).
Context of Tensions: The assurances arrive after the U.S. charged a Pakistani individual in August for plotting to kill Trump on behalf of Iran. Additionally, a plot involving the IRGC hiring an Iranian national to surveil and potentially assassinate Trump was uncovered in September, although it was successfully thwarted (Timestamp: 13:20).
Iranian Response: While Iran did not explicitly admit to targeting Trump, they reiterated their stance that the 2020 drone strike killing Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani was a crime. Iran's Foreign Minister dismissed the assassination claims as a "third rate comedy." (Timestamp: 15:10)
Strategic Shifts: In a surprising pivot, the Iranian president expressed a willingness to engage in direct diplomacy with the incoming Trump administration. Reports indicate that Iran has postponed planned retaliation against Israel, awaiting negotiations with Trump. However, skepticism remains regarding Iran's genuine intent, with analysts like one from the International Crisis Group questioning the sincerity of Iran's diplomatic overtures amidst ongoing plots (Timestamp: 16:50).
Implications: Iran's assurances, juxtaposed with their history of plotting against Trump, create a complex landscape for U.S. national security and election integrity. The potential for diplomatic engagement is clouded by trust issues, as analysts warn of Iran's dual approach—seeking negotiations while allegedly maintaining assassination plots. This situation underscores the fragile and volatile nature of U.S.-Iran relations, especially in the context of transitional political power in the United States.
The PDB Afternoon Bulletin for November 15th, 2024, highlights two critical developments in U.S.-Middle Eastern geopolitics. Israel's decisive action against Iran's covert nuclear activities signifies a persistent struggle over nuclear proliferation, while Iran's conflicting communications regarding President-elect Trump's safety reflect ongoing tensions and the precarious balance of power. As these narratives unfold, they will undoubtedly shape the strategic calculations of international actors involved.
For more detailed analyses and future updates, tune into upcoming episodes of The President's Daily Brief.